No6 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think you might be right, but I'm happy with 150 ticks for now. The S&P didn't get to the fib retrace when the dow did, so I'm not going to be greedy until (if) they get there together. Well, there is room to short even in this market especially around resistance levels. It can be a dangerous game though because things can reverse pretty quickly. However, as you have shown 150 points on a short is not a bad return if you can get it in a rising market. I think it is the bears that are still looking for the 1930's type drop that could end up disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 23, 2011 Report Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, there is room to short even in this market especially around resistance levels. It can be a dangerous game though because things can reverse pretty quickly. However, as you have shown 150 points on a short is not a bad return if you can get it in a rising market. I think it is the bears that are still looking for the 1930's type drop that could end up disappointed. Yes I agree, those events are the real one offs. Douche Dore did very well on the last big drop and as far as I know he has not opened a big short since. I moved my stops right down to lock in the 150 and was taken out quite quickly after that. Always a bit annoying to see the falls continue after, but far more seeing your paper profit disappear. While there are obviously a lot of problems out there, I am mindful of the bears in 2003 (when market hit bottom) that kept looking for the next wave down. It never came and the markets rallied through all the troubles at that time. The policies that caused that rise (low IR's etc) did then lead to the latest crash, but in the meantime huge profits could be made on the rise and many bears lost their shirts. While bearish myself, I really don’t see the nightmare scenario many (some) on GEI are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes I agree, those events are the real one offs. Douche Dore did very well on the last big drop and as far as I know he has not opened a big short since. I moved my stops right down to lock in the 150 and was taken out quite quickly after that. Always a bit annoying to see the falls continue after, but far more seeing your paper profit disappear. While there are obviously a lot of problems out there, I am mindful of the bears in 2003 (when market hit bottom) that kept looking for the next wave down. It never came and the markets rallied through all the troubles at that time. The policies that caused that rise (low IR's etc) did then lead to the latest crash, but in the meantime huge profits could be made on the rise and many bears lost their shirts. While bearish myself, I really don’t see the nightmare scenario many (some) on GEI are expecting. Clearly these one off events can go on for some time and hit market sentiment. The Libya crisis is unlikely to be resolved overnight and if it were to it would be more likely Gaddafi taking back control than a co-ordinated opposition running things. Anyway, who are the opposition in Libya? The wider effects can be seen by the rising oil price and what the market will be concerned here is that this will derail any potential recovery if things go on for any length of time. But even in a falling market some sectors are defying it. Right now many oil companies are holding steady or going up, which I suppose you might expect given the oil price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 24, 2011 Report Share Posted February 24, 2011 Clearly these one off events can go on for some time and hit market sentiment. The Libya crisis is unlikely to be resolved overnight and if it were to it would be more likely Gaddafi taking back control than a co-ordinated opposition running things. Anyway, who are the opposition in Libya? The wider effects can be seen by the rising oil price and what the market will be concerned here is that this will derail any potential recovery if things go on for any length of time. But even in a falling market some sectors are defying it. Right now many oil companies are holding steady or going up, which I suppose you might expect given the oil price. Yes, in fact, I'm just off to fill the cars up before petrol goes up again. I think the price rise is the expectation it may spread to Saudi (who have just given everyone a 15% pay rise to cheer them up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted February 24, 2011 Report Share Posted February 24, 2011 It is up about 6% so far today, which considering what has been going on in Libya as well might surprise some. Had a go at CEY dips with a little reward so far, today they gave an update with fairly muted response, though it halted the slide today. Centamin Egypt Ltd., a gold company operating in the North African country, said all employees returned to work at its Sukari mine after a protest this month, while political unrest has caused “mild disruptions.” “The Sukari workforce is back to full strength,” Centamin said today in a statement. “Process plant operations continued uninterrupted throughout.” Workers at the Sukari site staged a sit-in last week to demand higher pay and a change of ownership, state news service MENA reported Feb. 18. The company’s shares fell the most in more than two years that day...... Centamin rose 1.2 pence, or 1 percent, to 125.3 pence by the 4:30 p.m. close of London trading Centamin maintains its 2011 production guidance of 250,000 to 290,000 ounces at an average cash cost of $450 an ounce, the Mount Pleasant, Australia-based company said in the statement. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/c...uptions-2-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted February 24, 2011 Report Share Posted February 24, 2011 Arm has had a good run and now just over 600p. I recall bears thinking this was a short when it was mid 350's, so it has moved on a long way. I think it behaves like a typical IT growth stock, there is a lot of hope and hype built into the price and on fundamentals it is not cheap, but get in at the right time and you can enjoy the ride. Just be careful to get out before each time it slips up though. Maybe they just thought it was a good time to cash a fair few chips, there were some quite large sales. Also noticed directors of Domino's Pizza doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Maybe they just thought it was a good time to cash a fair few chips, there were some quite large sales. Robbie Burns shorted it at 631, £10 a point, so he is already well up on the deal - again! "I shorted Arm at 631 for a tenner. - it's trading on a massive multiple and directors have been selling their stock. I realise it could be a bid target so a guaranteed stop in at 670 just in case - however, it really looks overcooked and targetting 550." http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Trading in London halted this morning. Trading has been suspended on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) after a technical malfunction. "The uncrossing trades at the opening auction are under investigation for potential cancellation," said a spokesperson of the exchange. The trades are part of a computer algorithm used by the bourse to determine opening prices. Trading still had not resumed when updated UK fourth quarter GDP data was released at 0930 GMT. An LSE spokesperson added that orders-driven securities trading - which comprises the bulk of trading on the exchange - would be paused in the meantime, and she did not know when the problem would be fixed. Quote-driven trading is still continuing, but this form of trading is very small in comparison with order-drive trading. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12576844 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Robbie Burns shorted it at 631, £10 a point, so he is already well up on the deal - again! "I shorted Arm at 631 for a tenner. - it's trading on a massive multiple and directors have been selling their stock. I realise it could be a bid target so a guaranteed stop in at 670 just in case - however, it really looks overcooked and targetting 550." http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/ Doubt he's the only one Those sales looked well chunky to me, not just a few thousand, but several million in some cases, hardly a vote of confidence for the stock to go roaring ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 Doubt he's the only one Those sales looked well chunky to me, not just a few thousand, but several million in some cases, hardly a vote of confidence for the stock to go roaring ahead! But....it was up again today, about 5-6%! Bet RB got out long before today's rally though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 But....it was up again today, about 5-6%! Bet RB got out long before today's rally though. Yes did notice. Suspect it was as you mentioned the other day, throwback to tech boom. Rise hard, fall hard, depending on sentiment. All which makes me think, the directors are being canny taking profits. We'll see in time no doubt, will keep an eye on it and see where it gets to towards the end of the year. Suspect R.B had other things on his mind today. Like a trading seminar that was somewhat disrupted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Suspect R.B had other things on his mind today. Like a trading seminar that was somewhat disrupted Yes, did notice that the LSE was having a few problems today! I had to laugh when the Lloyds share price at one stage was something like 590p, showing +527p or something like that on the day. Lloyds/HBOS shareholders must have thought it was 2006 again and 2007/8 had been just a bad dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 A tale of no regrets. Don't regret lost opportunities. Learn from them instead. If I was into fishing, I would make a hellishly boring companion. I would always be rattling on about the one that got away, the 45 pound carp that nibbled through my net ("It was THIS big!") or the 30 pound pike that ate my bait and spat out the hook ("A real man-eater!"). If you've endured some of my previous articles, you'll know what I mean. I have spent way too long banging on about stocks that slipped my hook, such as ARM Holdings (LSE: ARM) and Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO). I netted both of these stocks at incredibly low valuations, only to release them back in the waters before they put on a massive growth spurt. My impatience cost me thousands of pounds. This is the last time I will ever mention them. Promise. Fishermen's tales It's human nature to bemoan the one that got away. And it's not just fishermen. Some men spend years moaning about the girlfriend they rashly let go ("She was the one!"). For others, it's the 20-to-1 outsider they should have backed, the job they should have had, the lucky break that fell somebody else's way. You don't often hear somebody expressing relief over the disaster that didn't happen. The 20-to-1 outsider they almost backed with their life savings that ambled in 20th. The job that nearly went to a rival candidate. The lucky break that fell your way. It isn't quite so gratifying to think about those. And as I realised last week, the same thing applies to shares. Hook, line and sunk Did you read Xchanging Plummets on Profit Warning a week ago? I did, with a mixture of dread and relief. There but for the grace of the investment gods nearly went I… I bought pure-play business process outsourcing provider Xchanging (LSE: XCH) in April 2010, at an executed price of 198p. As summer set in, I was feeling nervous about stock markets, and set a stop-loss under this stock that was immediately triggered. I had no inkling of what would happen next. In August, the share price halved to about 100p. I vaguely noticed this, but didn't think much about it. I was too busy carping on ARM and Rio Tinto. Then in February, the above-mentioned profit warning slashed Xchanging to today's price of around 56p. That's just a quarter of what I paid. By anybody's standards, it was a near miss. A disaster that didn't happen. I shrugged my shoulders, uttered a silent "Phew", then noticed that ARM was up another 5% on the day, and carried on bemoaning the one that got away, ungrateful pup that I am. It was a few days before the extent of my good fortune sunk in. Investor psychology is a fascinating thing. I'm doing my best to learn something from this, and this is what I've picked up so far............ http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/...fwflwlnk0000001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2011 Good old Buffett! Warren Buffett: I'm itching for major acquisitions Warren buffett told shareholders at his annual conference in Nebraska yesterday he is positive about the coming year and is on the verge of a huge spending spree. The 80-year-old 'Sage of Omaha' said he expects a recovery in the US housing market over the next 12 months and that he is prepared to break into the firm's war chest to capitalise on economic recovery. Buffett and his investment firm Berkshire Hathaway group have achieved iconic status with small investors and his presentations at the conferences are always closely monitored. At yesterday's meeting Buffett told the assembly he planned 'major' acquisitions this year, adding: 'We're prepared. Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy.' Buffett has a cash pile of $38bn and his words will be seen as a sign the economy is set to improve. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/art...=moretopstories AMERICA'S FUTURE "Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America," Buffett wrote. "Commentators today often talk of 'great uncertainty.' But think back, for example, to December 6, 1941, October 18, 1987 and September 10, 2001. No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain. "Don't let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. "The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential -- a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War -- remains alive and effective. "We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America's best days lie ahead." http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9LKM97G0.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 From the latest FibTimer free newsletter. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis Last week we wrote: "Of the many Wall Street proverbs, "The stock market climbs a wall of worry." is often used to explain why a rally is occurring when many feel it should not be. Subscribers know that we follow trends and feelings are not part of the equation. But we do find it interesting when we see these "feelings" affecting the markets." This week: After early week losses, the stock market reversed and rallied on Thursday and Friday. As we discussed two weeks ago, selloffs that are in response to news events typically have only a short term effect on the markets. This week's selling; because of the turmoil in Libya, the potential for disruption to the oil fields and global supply, and also the possibility that this might spread to other mid-East countries, especially Saudi Arabia, resulted in two days of heavy losses. But the losses ended at the 50-day moving average line for the S&P 500 Index - SPX and Friday's close was above the SPX 1305.32 support line (see daily chart below). It is hard to call next week. The disruptions could worsen or end. But again, news events typically do not result in a change in trend and declines are usually short lived. The selling also resulted in a rise in market pessimism. To a contrarian this is bullish. The stock market often climbs a wall-of-worry so "worries" convince enough investors to hold back and eventually those investors will have to return to the markets, driving them higher. This was a holiday shortened trading week. The losses generated on Tuesday and Wednesday were about half erased by the week ending rally. The daily chart (below) shows that the important support levels held. Last week we wrote: "Such a substantial rise cannot be sustained without profit-taking along the way. The SPX is hugely overbought and over due for a correction. Remember that profit-taking is normal and healthy for a bull market. The longer it is delayed; the steeper is the selling when it finally occurs." =================== Conclusion: The SPX is above its 50-day moving average and its 200-day average which is bullish. The 50-day average is now above the 200-day average which is technically bullish. There is a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. This is a strong indication that we have a long term bottom now in place. This pattern is marked in both below charts with (SHS). This technical indicator's forecast has already been fullfilled. The target for this advance has been reached at SPX 1305.32, the August 11, 2008 rally high. The new target is at SPX 1345.79. How the first week of January goes often predicts the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year many say. The first week is now history and it was a bullish one. Also the entire month of January was positive and this is another long term bullish indicator for the markets. Another indicator is the third year of the president's term in office. Typically the third year is very bullish and of course the third year is just ahead. The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH and in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P index fund). The SPDR Trust - SPY can also be used. http://www.fibtimer.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 US consumer confidence at 3 year high. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — An index of consumer sentiment rose in February, reaching its highest level in three years, on improved readings from higher-income households, according to survey results released Friday by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The sentiment gauge rose to 77.5 in February — the highest since January of 2008 — from 74.2 in January. A prior estimate for sentiment in February was 75.1. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-...uary-2011-02-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 Citigroup: US will be 3rd-largest economy by 2050 Get used to it. The United States isn't going to have the world's largest economy much longer. China's will be tops by 2020. But China won't be there all that long either, according to Citigroup global chief economist Willem Buiter. India will have the biggest economy by 2050, he predicts. Both countries are the world's fastest-growing economies. China predicts its economic growth will be 9% this year, BusinessWeek reports, while India's could hit 9.25%. The growth in India is so fast that officials are trying to figure out how to curb 9.4% inflation. There's good news in this, Buiter wrote in a research report this week. The world, as CNBC noted today, is going to become richer and richer as developing economies play catch-up in coming years. "We expect strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6% per annum until 2030 and 3.8% per annum between 2030 and 2050," Buiter wrote. "As a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from $72 trillion in 2010 to $380 trillion dollars in 2050," he wrote. ==================== Buiter ranked countries in terms of six factors that he calls Global Growth Generators. They include: * Domestic savings and investment * Demographic prospects * Overall national health * Educational progress * Stable and transparent institutions and policies * Trade openness Using those guides, the nations to watch over the coming years are Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. http://money.msn.com/how-to-invest/dispatc...db-9619ce096ec8 Some interesting selections there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 28, 2011 Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 Went short the Dow again earlier, on the 62% retrace of the recent falls. (after it hit and started to reverse). Tight stops as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 Went short the Dow again earlier, on the 62% retrace of the recent falls. (after it hit and started to reverse). Tight stops as always. Out of interest, do you only go short? I can't recall a long call, although that may just be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 28, 2011 Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 Out of interest, do you only go short? I can't recall a long call, although that may just be me. Not always, but mostly. I just can't help feeling the world is in a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 Not always, but mostly. I just can't help feeling the world is in a mess. It is and arguably always has been, but markets do often go up despite the mess. I can't think of a time when it has never been a mess to be honest, or at least it can look that way. I think that the notion of the world being in a mess is built into markets otherwise they would never go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DontPanic Posted March 1, 2011 Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Another 22% drop in HMV shareprice today. Down to 16.25p after another profit warning. Now well below the 2008 EPS of 22.1p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Another 22% drop in HMV shareprice today. Down to 16.25p after another profit warning. Now well below the 2008 EPS of 22.1p With a p/e of about 1 and still profits in the £40million range, I think the Russian will probably buy this once the short sellers have killed it for the final time. He will probably be able to get the debt renegotiated, use the HMV brand in Russia and transform it in a way the city doesn't allow as it will take time. It's probably best the company goes private as it can do nothing to please the city, the latest profit warning was flagged after the last results, so no real surprise here. I wouldn't buy even at 16p, although once the city smells a Russian bid, they will no doubt ramp up the price to something closer to break up value, which apparently is somewhere around 40-50p. Not sure the Russian would buy at that price, but what is the alternative? Perhaps he will just wait for the city to bust it and then pick up the pieces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Fresnillo produced some good results today. Fresnillo profits more than double on record silver prices Fresnillo, the Mexican miner, said profits more than doubled, boosted by record silver and gold prices and higher production. Pre-tax profit jumped to $1bn (£613m) from $457.4 m, the company said in its full-year results statement on Tuesday. Jaime Lomelin, the chief executive, said: "2010 was a year of exceptional performance. The combination of increased production, strong cost control and high metals prices led 2010 to be the best year in the company's history." Silver and gold prices grew 40pc and 27pc respectively in 2010. Fresnillo shares rose 2.7pc in early trading in London. The London-listed miner said it expects silver production to rise 5pc this year to 44m ounces and gold output to increase around 5pc to around 390,000 ounces. It said it was on on track to produce 65m ounces of silver and more than 400,000 ounces of gold annually by 2018. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ver-prices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Surging orders in the US raise capacity worries The US economy has already begun to hit capacity constraints in some industries as business orders reach the highest level since the start of the Reagan boom in the early 1980s. The Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) for the Mid-West region showed business optimism touched a 13-year high in February, while the new orders component was the highest since December 1983. The release came as New York Federal chief Bill Dudley said the outlook was "considerably brighter than six months ago" with signs of "broadening and strengthening" across the board. Mr Dudley said it would be foolish for the Fed to "over-react" to the commodity spike, blaming it on "temporary" factors that are unlikely to set off an inflation spiral when there is still so much slack in the US economy. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ty-worries.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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