No6's Financial Markets Thread

[jerpy]

the turnaround on this one is likely to take a lot longer than a few days. The "recovery" in the share price of the last day or so may have more to do with covering shorts than faith in a genuine turnaround. Having said that, I think the comments made here about the company were more in line with what actually happened than the doom and gloom view that it was going under. Mamut the Russian did come in and buy part of the company and the banks that had previously supported HMV with money to expand into live music decided on this occasion to step up and back the new changes. Not sure that HMV's management have the answers, but the new store format that has reportedly been successful in 6 trial stores will be in place by later in the year and if it works 2-3 years down the line this could be a major recovery stock. I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole just yet mind you. Still one for traders or those that are happy to just sit and wait and can afford to lose if it were to go under. The risk/reward here is probably the equivalent of an all in bet in poker when you are holding aces high after the river.

 

Just seen the latest s.p. you were not far wrong.

 

Take it aces high after the river means you think you have a good hand? You get rivers in cards? Sink or swim then

[No6]

From the Naked Trader thread.

 

Gone quiet on the Robbie thread, though I know No 6 at least occassionally reads his blog.

 

NT gets quite a few mentions on my market thread and as I mainly post there now this one has more or less gone to sleep.

 

 

As for his thoughts on the markets, he still keeps it simple whilst confirming he general view.

 

I think I have figured out what he does really well.

 

1. He tends to concentrate on smaller companies which as he says go under the radar. If he were mostly investing in FTSE100 and 250 companies, he would see them go up and down in line with the general market. Smaller companies, if you pick the right ones, often have a life of their own. The general market can be in a down period, but these will just keep going up. Of course, if you pick the wrong ones, they will fall big time as well.

 

2. His FTSE100 and 250 picks tend to be companies with a big success growth story behind them, Aggreko springs to mind.

 

 

Did pick up on this one which touches on the published to real portfolio difference discussed earlier in the thread

 

 

Telcoms Plus has been one of his big winners and he started off as a distributer of the company with the Utility Warehouse, apparently he still gets good residual income from that as well. This has been one of his smaller companies that just kept getting bigger, I can see it being a takeover target for one of the big players at some stage.

 

 

Just noticed he also went short after Linkedin

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

 

The Linkedin short got a mention on the markets thread.

[No6]

Just seen the latest s.p. you were not far wrong.

 

Take it aces high after the river means you think you have a good hand? You get rivers in cards? Sink or swim then

 

Sorry, using the poker term was probably a poor example. Aces high is most likely a very weak hand. The river card is a term used in poker. Players who are hoping that they will get their card on the river will usually end up losing big time, but some get lucky.

 

Definition: The "River" is the name for the fifth card dealt, face-up on the board, in community card games like Texas Hold'em and Omaha.

 

When someone gets the card they need to beat their opponent on that fifth and final card, people will say they "rivered" it.

 

Lydia is hoping for a spade to come on the river -- will she catch a miracle at the river? Let's see what happens with the final community card!

 

http://poker.about.com/od/pokerglossary/g/River.htm

[jerpy]

Sorry, using the poker term was probably a poor example. Aces high is most likely a very weak hand. The river card is a term used in poker. Players who are hoping that they will get their card on the river will usually end up losing big time, but some get lucky.

 

Thats ok I genuinely had absolutely no idea, for some reason cards has never really interested me. Aces high implied a good hand to me, as my limited pontoon knowledge tells me an Ace is good, err I think

[jerpy]

I think I have figured out what he does really well.

 

 

Yes long noticed he's not exactly a B.P, banks or big resource man myself.

 

Have you also spotted the main trend in his spread shorts? Besides the index, plenty of retailers of one description or another. Whatever his selection criteria for trading short, it seemingly sets a trend towards retailers be it Next or a building material provider.

 

Possibly these are what he knows and feels most comfortable with?

[No6]

Yes long noticed he's not exactly a B.P, banks or big resource man myself.

 

 

Unless you are trading in and out of these companies then you are unlikely to achieve the kind of return that NT's strategy is clearly after. They are also more likely to be affected by the general market volatility unless it is a solid growth story like Aggreko (which, as it happens, is actually 2.2% down today as I write this! Can't see any reason for it.) He believes that the bigger returns are to be had within the smaller company sector, but you have to have a good strategy for finding those good companies. He basically looks for the good growth story. When he finds one, he essentially then becomes a momentum trader, in the sense that he often adds to a position as it goes up. This is counter intuative to the thinking of most people who like cliches like buy low, sell high. He will try to buy low, then buy higher, higher and higher, until it runs out of steam. He did this with Telecoms Plus and now gets as much with his annual dividend on this company alone to match the yearly salary of many.

 

Yes long noticed he's not exactly a B.P, banks or big resource man myself.

 

Have you also spotted the main trend in his spread shorts? Besides the index, plenty of retailers of one description or another. Whatever his selection criteria for trading short, it seemingly sets a trend towards retailers be it Next or a building material provider.

 

Possibly these are what he knows and feels most comfortable with?

I think he just goes after the weak sectors. He shorted Ocado on valuation grounds even though it was quite volatile, up and down. I think his Glencore short was largely based on commodities due a correction and Linkedin on the fact that it got too far ahead of itself at IPO. If the FTSE is falling he tends to short it as a hedge against any fall in the price of stocks that he is holding.

 

All told his strategy has consistantly worked. I don't recall him ever having a really bad down period, although occasionally he has ranted when the market has turned down, but I don't think he has ever been in a snowed under position.

[No6]

Will Glencore make a big splash? Reports today that it is looking to buy FTSE100 miner ENRC. That's a big takeover if true.

 

(Reuters) - Shares in Kazakh miner ENRC (ENRC.L) jumped almost 5 percent in early trade after a Sunday newspaper report that commodities trader Glencore (GLEN.L) (0805.HK) was considering a 12 billion pound ($19.5 billion) takeover bid.

 

At 0715 GMT (3:15 a.m. ET) on Monday, shares in ENRC, hit last week by a bitter boardroom battle at the group, were up 4.7 percent at 777 pence, outperforming a broadly flat mining sector.

 

Glencore shares were down 0.1 percent.

 

Quoting a source with knowledge of the discussions, the Sunday Times newspaper said Glencore Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg had held talks in recent weeks with ENRC's three founders and key shareholders Alexander Mashkevitch, Patokh Chodiev and Alijan Ibragimov. The trio control some 45 percent of ENRC's shares.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/us-enrc-idUSTRE75C17020110613

[drbubb]

Do you rate astrocycles, No6?

 

(Possible turn at the end of the week - I have started some buying already)

[No6]

Do you rate astrocycles, No6?

 

(Possible turn at the end of the week - I have started some buying already)

 

There could be something in it, but I've never really used it. It is one of those things that I should investigate more, but I would be more interested in the scientific study around the effect or not of lunar cycles on behaviour. I'm not really that interested in what astrologers may have to say. Astrologers have about as much credibility as psychics, have they ever predicted market movements with any real accuracy consistant over time? You would have thought psychics would know, but I suspect none of them could predict the market with any consistancy or accuracy over time.

 

Some interesting studies in general about behaviour and our environment.

 

Does a Lunar Cycle Affect Market Averages?

 

by Bill Meridian

 

Introduction

 

This is an abridged version of a study that was conducted in 1994. The purpose of this paper is to derive a cycle relating the lunar cycle to an equity average. This cycle will then be evaluated for its profitability versus a buy-and-hold strategy. The results may be of interest to short-term traders with an interest in cyclic analysis.

Those who seek a causative link might consider the following. Serotonin is the substance in the brain of a homing pigeon that sensitizes the bird to the earth's magnetic field, allowing the pigeon to 'home in.' The field itself has been shown to fluctuate with lunar and solar influences. Nelson's work demonstrates a relationship between all of the planets and solar activity. Serotonin exists in the human body. The substance was neglected until biotechnology companies recently took an interest. Perhaps this is the link.

 

The Link to Markets In John Murphy's text, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets

 

He writes, "There is another important short-term cycle that tends to influence most commodity markets- the 28-day trading cycle. In other words, most markets have a tendency to form a trading low every 4 weeks. One possible explanation for this strong cyclic tendency throughout all commodity markets is the lunar cycle. Burton Pugh studied the 28-day cycle in the wheat market in the 1930s and concluded that the moon had some influence on market turning points. His theory was that wheat should be bought on a full moon and sold on a new moon. Pugh acknowledged, however, that the lunar effects were mild and could be overriden by the effects of longer cycles or important news events."

 

http://www.billmeridian.com/articles-files/lunar.htm

 

Effects of the lunar cycle on humans

 

- The lunar cycle: effects on human and animal behavior and physiology

 

Human and animal activities, physiological processes, and behavior are subject to alterations caused by circadian rhythms, lunar cycles, and seasonal changes. Circadian [12] and seasonal rhythms [30,36] are well described, but the effects of the lunar cycle on humans and animals have been much less explored. The aim of this article was to review available data regarding effects of the lunar cycle on human and animal physiology, with particular attention paid to alterations in the immune response of experimental animals.

 

http://www.biology-online.org/articles/lunar_cycle_effects_human/effects_lunar_cycle_humans.html

 

Seasonal affective disorder

 

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a type of depression that has a seasonal pattern. It is characterised by episodes of depression that recur at the same time each year.

 

SAD is sometimes known as 'winter depression' because the symptoms are more apparent during the winter.

 

As with other kinds of depression, two of the main symptoms of SAD are a low mood and a loss of interest in ordinary things.

 

http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Seasonal-affective-disorder/Pages/Introduction.aspx

[No6]

Do you rate astrocycles, No6?

 

(Possible turn at the end of the week - I have started some buying already)

 

I've had a further look at this and have added the full moon dates to my chart of the FTSE100 for 2011 so far just to see if there is anything that stands out. I suspect this is basic stuff, but as you indicated in your diary that with the full moon we may be likely to see a turn in the market, I decided to investigate further and see if there are any patterns worth following. On the FTSE chart below (it's a bit small, I use Photobucket, does anyone know how the charts can be enlarged? I use Gadwin Printscreen to capture the image. I haven't figured it out.) The new moon dates are indicated on the chart by the black vertical line, which I've also put on the stochastics indicator.

 

 

Dates this year and some analysis.

 

Jan 18th - coincided with a market pullback up to early Feb.

 

Feb 18th - Market began to fall significantly 2-10 days later after a brief rally.

 

Mar 19th - Within a day or two of the market low on the chart there was a significant bounce.

 

Apr 18th - Within a day the market had a move up of about 200 points over the next week or so.

 

May 16th - The market had already been in a significant down move since early May, it moved up slightly but this is the weakest of all the moves on or around the full moon.

 

Jun 15th - If you look on the trendlines that I have drawn on my chart the FTSE is heading towards a major area of support or breakdown. This is likely to happen over the next day or two and with the market well oversold I'm inclined to see a bounce from here. Directional movement and stochastics suggest an upward move may be on the cards. I find it interesting that the move on the stochastics indicator using 10, 3, 3 has every time so far confirmed, within a day or so, the full moon date move (up or down doesn't matter). I will certainly be applying this stochastics/full moon indicator to more of my charts to see if it works elsewhere.

[Pixel8r]

On the FTSE chart below (it's a bit small, I use Photobucket, does anyone know how the charts can be enlarged? I use Gadwin Printscreen to capture the image. I haven't figured it out.)

On the Apple Mac I use the great Skitch app and hosting service - http://www.skitch.com

 

For the PC this looks like it is very similar - http://www.jetscreenshot.com/screenshots.php

 

 

 

[No6]

On the Apple Mac I use the great Skitch app and hosting service - http://www.skitch.com

 

For the PC this looks like it is very similar - http://www.jetscreenshot.com/screenshots.php

 

 

Thanks, I will have a look.

[No6]

Given the post above about the possibility of an upward move, the market seems to have found its happy face with recent news. We will see how long it lasts.

 

ADVFN Market Report

 

Stocks Continue To See Significant Strength

 

With economic data from the U.S. and China easing recent concerns about the outlook for the global economy, stocks are turning in a strong performance during trading on Tuesday. The markets may also be benefiting from bargain hunting following recent weakness.

 

The major averages are currently posting strong gains, just off their highs for the session. The Dow is up 135.63 points or 1.1 percent at 12,088.60, the Nasdaq is up 40.28 points or 1.5 percent at 2,679.97 and the S&P 500 is up 16.88 points or 1.3 percent at 1,288.71.

 

Much of the buying interest on Wall Street stems from upbeat economic data from China, as the reports have offset some of the concerns that were generated by last Friday's weak trade data from the communist nation.

 

Reports from China showed that industrial production in the country rose at an annual rate of 13.3 percent in May, while Chinese retail sales for the month were up by 16.9 percent year-over-year.

 

A report showing a smaller than expected drop in U.S. retail sales also generated some positive sentiment, with the drop largely due to lower auto sales.

 

The report from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. retail sales for May came in at $387.1 billion, a 0.2 percent decline from April. Economists had been expecting sales to fall by 0.3 percent.

 

Much of the weakness in retail sales was caused by a 2.9 percent drop in motor vehicle and parts sales. Excluding the auto sector, retail sales rose by 0.3 percent.

 

In other U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing that producer prices for the month of May increased at the slowest rate in ten months, as a drop in food prices offset a continued increase in energy prices.

 

The Labor Department said its producer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in May following a 0.8 percent increase in April. While the modest increase came in slightly above economist estimates for a 0.1 percent increase, it still marked the slowest growth since prices inched up by 0.1 percent in July of 2010.

 

Excluding food and energy prices, the core producer price index also rose by 0.2 percent in May after rising by 0.3 percent in each of the two previous months. The modest increase by the core index came in line with economist estimates.

[DontPanic]

I've had a further look at this and have added the full moon dates to my chart of the FTSE100 for 2011 so far just to see if there is anything that stands out. I suspect this is basic stuff, but as you indicated in your diary that with the full moon we may be likely to see a turn in the market, I decided to investigate further and see if there are any patterns worth following. On the FTSE chart below (it's a bit small, I use Photobucket, does anyone know how the charts can be enlarged? I use Gadwin Printscreen to capture the image. I haven't figured it out.) The new moon dates are indicated on the chart by the black vertical line, which I've also put on the stochastics indicator.

 

 

No. 6,

 

With the vast amount of historical financial data available and todays computing power I would actually be surprised if it were not possible to find some data with a good correlation to astro cycles over a reasonable period of time. However, this would only reveal a correlation and unless the astro cycle are the cause then there is no reason for the correlation to continue in the future.

 

Instead of taking the FTSE data and drawing on it the lunar cycles the way to find a correlation should be to run the raw FTSE data trying all possible cycles lengths and seeing which gives the best fit.

 

When running back testing this is what Taleb wrote “I am fitting the rule on the data. This activity is called data snooping. The more I try, the more I am likely, by mere luck, to find a rule that worked on past data. A random series will always present some detectable pattern. I am convinced that there exists a tradable security in the Western world that would be 100% correlated with the changes in temperature in Oulan Bator, Mongolia.”

[No6]

No. 6,

 

With the vast amount of historical financial data available and todays computing power I would actually be surprised if it were not possible to find some data with a good correlation to astro cycles over a reasonable period of time. However, this would only reveal a correlation and unless the astro cycle are the cause then there is no reason for the correlation to continue in the future.

 

Instead of taking the FTSE data and drawing on it the lunar cycles the way to find a correlation should be to run the raw FTSE data trying all possible cycles lengths and seeing which gives the best fit.

 

When running back testing this is what Taleb wrote “I am fitting the rule on the data. This activity is called data snooping. The more I try, the more I am likely, by mere luck, to find a rule that worked on past data. A random series will always present some detectable pattern. I am convinced that there exists a tradable security in the Western world that would be 100% correlated with the changes in temperature in Oulan Bator, Mongolia.”

 

Actually, I agree with this. In post 634 above I was considering the possibility on behaviour that lunar cycles might have and extending this to the way markets behave. There is not enough scientific data to support a clear link, although it is now accepted that in other ways our environment, i.e. SAD, does have an effect on behaviour. Not so long ago this would have been seen as quackery, therefore, I'm not inclined to dismiss it.

 

As for the chart posted, it is a small sample, which I intend to look back at previous years and post once completed. While I accept that these results may simply be coincidence and a random series, should it be dismissed if in fact it does show a reasonable success rate? This poses the interesting question as to whether we really need to know and understand why something may work. In other words, if there were an instance were there was a tradable security in the Western world that would be 100% correlated with the changes in temperature in Oulan Bator, Mongolia and you could use it and be successful in say 75% of your trades, would you ignore it because your logical instinct says it can't work or that it shouldn't? Trading and investing is largely about getting an edge, and most traders would settle for being right about 30% of the time providing they are able to cut the losers short and let the 30% winners run, so if I found through back testing that the new moon date, perhaps in conjuncture with some indicator gave me a 50%+ edge I'd take it and give it a go regardless. It wouldn't necessarily bother me why it worked, but I'd be well aware that it could stop working at any time and that there might actually be nothing in it.

[DontPanic]

Its an interesting discussion. I can see how if you really believe in something it may be useful irrespective of what you believe is true or not e.g. religion or taking a lucky mascot into exam with you. They can make you more relaxed or in the case of religion give you some hope etc. Maybe if the lunar cycle ties up it may give you confidence to click buy or sell but its still not a cause and so no real explanation for it to continue working in the future.

 

It the case of temperatures affecting a particular security price no one will be able to prove beyond all doubt that it is not the cause of the correlation (as long as it lasts) but at least for me the randomness explanation is enough for me have sufficient doubt that it is not worthwhile spending my time looking into it.

 

Some of the cycles based on human behavior I can accept such as SAD and if you do the measurements you should find the seasonal correlation continuing. What I find most frustrating is that after a cycle event prediction the person who predicted it changes the model (more parameters?) and provides some justification for why it did not work rather than questioning the whole thing. I find it a bit like praying to God and if you don’t get what you want the priest saying you did not pray hard enough rather than questioning the whole thing. If you give yourself more variables of course you will find something to fit.

[No6]

Its an interesting discussion. I can see how if you really believe in something it may be useful irrespective of what you believe is true or not e.g. religion or taking a lucky mascot into exam with you. They can make you more relaxed or in the case of religion give you some hope etc. Maybe if the lunar cycle ties up it may give you confidence to click buy or sell but its still not a cause and so no real explanation for it to continue working in the future.

 

 

I suppose the point that I'm making is that in this instance you don't necessarily have to believe in something if the evidence, however strictly unscientific that might be, actually returns a positive return. For example, if the full moon date just happens to work well with a certain indicator against a particular security or index and back testing shows a good return, why not try it? If it then didn't work you drop it and move on. The key is not to believe that it is the answer, which of course is exactly what religious, political types etc, do.

 

It the case of temperatures affecting a particular security price no one will be able to prove beyond all doubt that it is not the cause of the correlation (as long as it lasts) but at least for me the randomness explanation is enough for me have sufficient doubt that it is not worthwhile spending my time looking into it.

 

 

I would say it is the behaviour of the participants in the market that determines the price of everything. The security itself doesn't matter, the actors who determine price and what may be affecting them does. At least this is the way I tend to view markets. What would the market be like if they suddenly discovered that lots of traders had SAD at certain times of the year?

[DontPanic]

As long as you dont take it too seriously I cannot see much harm in it e.g. only place small bets on it working. In which case I could imagine its no worse than buying shares at random times. The problem is as you say when you really believe it to work and place big bets using it as guidance.

 

I guess my scientific training just causes me to question data and look for explanations e.g. how could a lunar cycles affect one security or index and not another when the buyers and sellers are in the same geographic area and thus experience the same 'lunar' effect ?

 

Of course I agree that its the participants behaviour which determines the price and things that affect them. I just dont think a little extra moonlight every month is enough to do it! Compared to events like Fukushima, 9/11 and a Fed reserve speech even if it existed (which I doubt) it would just be noise.

 

My goal is also to be a lazy investor and avoid the effort of spending time looking for such 'cycles' which even if I tried I have little faith in me finding given all the hedge funds churning data 24/7.

[No6]

As long as you dont take it too seriously I cannot see much harm in it e.g. only place small bets on it working. In which case I could imagine its no worse than buying shares at random times. The problem is as you say when you really believe it to work and place big bets using it as guidance.

 

There is no chance of me using it in isolation and as it is only one date a month, I will just note it on my charts and see what else is happening.

 

Anyway, the full moon on the 15th isn't doing anything to turn this market around so far it would seem. Despite yesterday's upbeat day, the market is still in the same downtrend that has been developing since early May. The old Sell in May signal seems to be more appropriate.

 

U.S. stocks sank the most in two weeks, threatening to erase the 2011 gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the euro slid the most in more than a month amid rising concern that Greece will default and evidence that the American economy is slowing. Treasuries rallied.

 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.7 percent to a three-month low of 1,265.42 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming its year-to-date gain to 0.6 percent, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 1.1 percent. The euro lost 1.9 percent to $1.4166 and the cost of insuring Greek and Portuguese debt rose to records. Oil sank to the lowest price since February as the S&P GSCI Index of commodities plunged 3.4 percent. The Dollar Index surged the most in 10 months, 10-year Treasury yields fell below 3 percent and two-year rates dropped the most since April.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/euro-falls-amid-eu-deadlock-over-greek-crisis-aussie-oil-drop.html

[No6]

Well, unless the full moon bounce is going to happen in the next day or so this one is a fail. The trend down continues and the FTSE has broken through a key support. 5500 looks the next key level.

 

[No6]

Interesting how these key moments keep repeating themselves. The Greece default and contagion issue is nothing new, they now have a name for it - Europe's "Lehman Moment". Markets have decided to be spooked again by it all and I suspect that there will need to be some sort of agreement over the weekend to stop a potential freefall in the markets next week. A Greece default decision over the weekend will see a freefall and that is why it is not likely to happen. Instead, some sort of holding operation to buy time is more likely. The whole inflationary money, credit debt system to a large degree is based on a time pattern that has to assume problems get resolved over time and that events do not speed up. The Lehman collapse and subsequent events in 2008 was a good example of what happens when this assumption goes wrong.

 

Traders feared that the political chaos and riots across Greece would cause a default, which in turn would trigger a tsunami through the financial system – as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in 2008.

 

Neil Mackinnon, an economist at VTB Capital in London and a former Treasury official, said: "The probability of a eurozone Lehman moment is increasing. The markets have moved from simply pricing in a high probability of a Greek debt default to looking at a scenario of it becoming disorderly and of contagion spreading to other economies like Portugal, like Ireland, and maybe Spain, Italy and Belgium."

 

London's FTSE 100 closed down 0.76pc at 5698.81, following a 1pc drop on Wednesday. Major exchanges in Germany and France plunged as well. Asian stock markets had already fallen overnight on Wednesday and US markets followed in early trading yesterday.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8580951/Greek-debt-crisis-is-Europes-Lehman-moment.html

[No6]

Dow exactly on the 200(EMA)moving average.

 

[No6]

A big question right now, with reference to UK stocks, is how deep is this sell-off likely to go. FTSE down again this morning on the back of Greece and now Italy's possible downgrading worries. So, here's several stocks that at some stage will be bargains. Question is, when?

 

3 big gold/silver mining companies and 2 big copper miners.

 

Fresnillo - High 04/01 1770 now 1287.

 

Hochschild Mining - High 08/03 688 now 429.

 

Eurasian Natural Resources - High 13/01 1126 now 720.

 

African Barrick Gold - High 30/12/10 621 now 393.

 

Antofagasta - High 04/01 1672 now 1200.

 

These falls seem to be consistant for many commodity/resource/metal quoted companies over the last 3-6 months. For quite a few the downtrend has been in place since January, giving an early warning signal that commodities were in trouble.

[No6]

Vodafone is one of few UK FTSE100 companies up today and looking at the chart you can probably see why as it is bouncing around that lower support, just needs some confirmation now. I'm tempted to think they are a buy at these levels, at least it would be under normal market conditions. Fundamentals look good as well.

 

 

What will the telecoms giant do with its huge cash pile? Buy shares, of course!

 

Yesterday, Vodafone (LSE: VOD) announced that it had completed the sale of its minority shareholding in SFR.

Banking £7 billion

 

On 4 April, the telecoms giant announced that, subject to approval from the relevant competition and regulatory authorities, Vodafone would sell its entire 44% shareholding in French mobile operator SFR to Vivendi, the media conglomerate.

 

Following the sale, Vodafone has now banked €7.75 billion (£6.8 billion) in cash, plus a final dividend from SFR of €200 million (£176 million). In other words, the group now finds itself with an extra £7 billion burning a hole in its pocket.

 

However, Vodafone and SFR have signed a 'Partner Market agreement which will maintain their commercial co-operation'. In other words, Vodafone will still have some involvement in the French mobile market, albeit at arm's length.

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/company-comment/2011/06/17/vodafone-collects-7bn-in-cash.aspx

[No6]

Something that has been mentioned here before, testosterone trading.

 

Testosterone and high finance do not mix: so bring on the women

 

Gender inequality has been an issue in the City for years, but now the new science of 'neuroeconomics' is proving the point beyond doubt: hormonally-driven young men should not be left alone in charge of our finances…

 

For the past few weeks I've had two books by my bed, both of which offer a first draft of what history may well judge the most significant event of our times: the 2008 financial crash. Read together, they are about as close as we might come to a closing chapter of The Rise and Fall of the American Empire. As literature, one of them – the final report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission of the US Treasury – doesn't always make for easy reading: there are far too many nameless villains for a start. And, quite pointedly, there is not a heroine in sight. Reading the report I became preoccupied by, among other things – the fairy steps from millions to billions to trillions, say – the overwhelming maleness of the world described. The words "she", "woman" or "her" do not appear once in its 662 pages. It is a book, like most historical tragedies, written about the follies and hubris of men.

 

The other book, an entirely compulsive companion volume, is Michael Lewis's best-selling The Big Short, which Google Earths you into the crisis. Rather than looking at a global picture, it lets you into the bedrooms and boardrooms of the individual corporate men who catastrophically lost billions of dollars and, on the other side of those bets, the extraordinary ragtag of obsessive individuals who saw what was coming and made eye-watering fortunes. It gives the crash a human face, and once again that face is universally male.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/19/neuroeconomics-women-city-financial-crash?CMP=twt_gu