CrashBounce Posted October 31, 2010 Report Share Posted October 31, 2010 It is not all bearish. What do you think will happen to Household size?: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=11696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonic Posted November 29, 2010 Report Share Posted November 29, 2010 Put all these together, and there may be a huge reduction in demand. Personally, I think there is plenty of Supply in the UK, and as the housing bust gets rolling, people will be amazed at how persistent the new trends are. I agree - massive over supply is waiting in the wings (visible in statistics) it's just not very obvious yet. This won't happen tomorow, but when it comes the shift will be rapid and dramatic. Many assume that the cappacity of the housing stock is fixed, but shrinking household size conceals a massive pent up supply, in the millions of unused bedrooms of empty nests occupied by boomers, and the generation before. As these folk age, many will downsize - some forced by rising costs and/or lack of other pension arrangements. For those who can afford to stay, over time it will become a mater of practicality, as aging owners strugle to maintain their oversized homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonic Posted November 29, 2010 Report Share Posted November 29, 2010 It is not all bearish. What do you think will happen to Household size?: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=11696 See above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purechatterbox Posted December 16, 2010 Report Share Posted December 16, 2010 As we all know it. This phenomenon of falling property prices is happening around the world. I suggest that the government don’t allow this information to be further disseminated. For if this keeps on going, people, knowing that prices are falling, instead of buying properties will not do so because of the fear of the anticipated fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2010 From the At What point will the UK market bottom? thread : Here's where we've been: I have some charts you might find useful. Give me a second while I go to my computer and work out why they're not on my website. Here's the one of the data above What's coming? If it fits the cyclical pattern, it should be something like this: In fact, the fall may be quicker now that the Second Leg down is underway than suggested by my chart. For example, in the US the drop has been rather symmetrical with the rally: http://www.blogcdn.com/www.dailyfinance.co...home-price2.jpg Now that the mirror of that 2005 plateau has been traced out for the UK market, a symmetrical drop would suggest a rather ugly move down. I talk about "crash cruise speed" with prices averaging at least "0.5-1.0% down per month", but I think it could easily be faster than that, for at portion on the next 2-3 years. My H&Nindex is the average of Halifax and Nationwide. Peak was-- : 192,490 -08/07 (100.0% ) Leg1 Low-- : 153,477 -02/09 ( 79.73% : -20.3%) DC bounce : 169,287 -04/10 ( 87.95% : -20.3%) Today------- : 163,333 -11/10 ( 84.85% : -15.1%) Mos to12/12: 25 mos. == at 1%--- : 115,500 -11/10 ( 60% : -40%) Mos to12/13: 37 mos. == at 1%---- : 92,500 -11/10 ( 48% : -52%) Of course, a drop averaging 1% a month would not be a s deep as I have shown, because the base upon which the 1% applies gets smaller over time. But the above order of magnitude- to Pds. 100,000 - 115,000 should give some idea of what I think is possible over the next 3-5 years, if the government allows prices to return to historical multiples of income, without tampering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2010 OTHER Forecast of a big drop Buying residential property at the moment is unwise, says Capital Economics. Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics, says that growing fears over inflation and high house prices means house price rises can not be relied on. He adds that residential property is currently a poor prospect for those looking for decent real terms capital gains over anything less than the very long-run. Diggle says: “Real house prices look to be something like 20% too high relative to trend. If they fell by that amount over the next two to three years, it would take a further ten years of trend house price growth before investors broke-even in real terms. “And that’s before factoring in mortgage interest payments, running costs, depreciation and the opportunity costs of the equity tied up in the property.” He also warned that inflation will be more of a problem next year than either we or the Bank of England expects. /more: http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/economy/...1023820.article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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