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Hong Kong Property - Charts & Data

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I think you have to be a little mad to buy in the UK now...



What sort of psychology buys HK property?


(from today's SCMP):


A survey on global housing affordability*, published by Demographia International in January, ranked Hong Kong last among 325 urban markets. The territory's median house price was 11.4 times Hong Kong's gross annual median household income.


By comparison, New York ranked 68th in affordability, with prices at 6.1 times median income. Atlanta was ranked most affordable; the median home price was 2.3 times income.


Honh Kong's housing prices now are above the peak reached in 1997, just before a financial crisis hammered most of the region, Mr. Tsang noted.

== == ==



* Of course, this measure : Median price to median income, ignores certain important facts:


+ HK has a very low tax, with a MAXIMUM income tax rate of 16%,

+ Mortgage interest rates in Hk have been amongst the lowest in the world- recently at 1-2%

+ HK has a superb transport system, so people "waste" little money maintaining cars, and instead put that money into housing

+ Many HK people work very long hours, and would rather buy a small (expensive) flat close to their workplace, than to buy a larger flat far away,

+ Smaller flats mean less space to fill with expensive consumer purchases, so more of their money goes directly into housing

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(This fits the 18 year Cycle rather well):


From today's SCMP:


Home Prices Will Soar to All Time High by 2014


Sales of Hong Kong's new homes could reach record highs -- yes, another record high -- over the next couple of years as developers accelerate releases of residential projects, according to a report in the South China Morning Post.


"We see the property up-cycle continuing until the end of 2014 at least," Lee Wee Liat, head of research at BNP Paribas Securities, said to the Post.


"Primary-market transaction volumes should remain strong over the next two years, possibly hitting historical highs of 15,000 units and HK$150 billion in each of 2013 and 2014."


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Lee expects the number of deals in the primary market to reach 13,000 this year with a total value of HK$136 billion, compared to 10,501 deals last year at a total value of HK$133.32 billion.


He predicted that home prices would grow another 10 to 15 percent by the time 2014 rolls around.


"Developers with the most projects available for sale can capitalise on high property prices will outperform," he said.


Agents identified Cheung Kong as a likely outperformer, noting that it had more than 5,300 apartments available for sale until next year.


Its major projects include City Point, at West Rail's Tsuen Wan West station, and Lohas phase three in Tseung Kwan O. It was expected to achieve sales revenue of about HK$50 billion if all units were sold, agents said.


Cusson Leung, an analyst at Swiss-based investment bank Credit Suisse, said developers would now focus on the primary market.


"They are becoming more flexible on pricing and focusing more on asset turnover, and buying power will be absorbed by all the attention on primary projects," he said.


Sun Hung Kai Properties co-chairman Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong said last week the group would not hoard its supply of new flats.


"We will put the new projects up for sale once we secure pre-sale consent from the government," he said after the company's final result announcement last week.


Victor Lui Ting, deputy managing director, said SHKP planned to release HK$35 billion worth of units for pre-sale for the year ended June next year.


Henderson Land and New World are also likely to release more projects from now to next year, compared with their launch programme this year.


Lee said the key focus would be on their two joint-venture projects, the 928-unit Double Cove phase one at Ma On Shan and the 2,580-unit The Reach at Tai Tong Road in Yuen Long. More than 400 units at Double Cove phase one have been sold this month. Henderson Land Development also would start to see returns from its redevelopment projects, with five potential launches this year and six next year, Lee said.

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TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio :


H-1997-late : 102.93 : 10-19-97 /

L-1998-late : 045.71 : 10-11-98 /

H-1999-spr. : 057.23 : 04-25-99 /

L-2003-mid : 031.77 : 08-24-03 / e3,000 : 94.43E :

H-2005-mid : 056.07 : 06-26-05 / e6,000 : 107.0E : e5,700 : 4100e / e5,400: 96.31R / 3500e : 62.42R

L-2007-spr. : 054.87 : 05-20-07 / e5,100 : 92.95E : e4,800 : 3600e / e5,300: 96.59R / 2300e : 41.92R

H-2008-mid : 073.23 : 06-07-08 / e7,700 : 105.1E : e7,500 : 4800e / e8,000: 109.2R / 3500e : 47.79R

L-2008-end : 056.71 : 12-15-08 / e5,400 : 95.22E : e4,700 : 3500e / e5,000: 88.17R / 2500e : 44.08R

H-2011-cal. : 100.72 : 06-05-11 / 10,811 : 107.3R : 09,285 : 7,292 / 10,538 : 104.6R / 5,043 : 50.07R

L-2012-beg.: 094.16 : 01-08-12 / 09,654 : 102.5R : 08,762 : 6,615 / 09,160 : 97.28R / 4,610 : 48.96R

H-2013-mar : 123.66 : 03-17-13 / 12,439 : 100.6R : 11,428 : 8,919 / 12,302 : 99.48R / 6,441 : 52.09R

L-2013-may : 118.51 : 05-05-13 / 11,268 : 95.08R : 09,971 : 8,172 / 11,326 : 95.57R / 5,750 : 48.52R

Latest - July : 120.14 : 07-15-13 / 11,921 : 99.23R : 10,136 : 8,339 / 10,998 : 91.54R / 6,054 : 50.39R



TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio :

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