Jim Dines, Mr.Uranium, has winning ways

[Walktothewater]

i will answer on another thread, and come back and give you a link.

 

link: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=1930

That’s great DrB, good info. I’ve just sold the Dow Jan 8 bet on igindex, and am about to buy the S&P500 Betapro bear fund through Horizons (TSX). By end of today, each 1% move in the Dow/S&P should generate about +/-C$1000 with these positions, most from the spreadbet which is also tax free. This doesn’t cover me anywhere close to 100%, but it feels better having some insurance. The US mkts are ripe for a Feb 26 style flop IMHO.

 

On the other hand, Dow 15,000 probably means my resources stocks continue going nuts...

 

This idea of maintaining an adjustable long/short balance in ones portfolio is such an important idea yet receives almost no attention anywhere. I will contribute to this thread with some ideas of my own when I get a chance.

[drbubb]

Dow 15,000 probably means my resources stocks continue going nuts...

 

You may want to keep an eye on the Dow/Gold ratio,

or alternatively: GDX/SPY (which moves inversely)

[drbubb]

Interim Warning Bulletin - 18 May 2007, Vol 2007 #7

 

CONSOLIDATION ENDING?

 

Consolidations come with bull markets as do fleas with dogs, and

are so deucedly difficult to predict that virtually no Security Analyst

dares even to try. Consolidations are notoriously treacherous because

their very function is to shake investors out of bull markets

prematurely, so surprising feints and False Breakouts are normal.

However, those who grit their teeth and ride them out, as many TDLrs

have done with uraniums the last seven years, can be rewarded with

spectacular capital gains. Granted, those who bought uraniums just

before the latest Consolidation have been wrong-footed, but luck is a

factor when investing, and we just work here.

We prepared you for this Consolidation in recent TDLs and IWBs,

as best we could, based on Visual Analysis and Mass Psychology, but

nobody has the tools with which to accurately gauge how long or deep a

Consolidation might go. TDL's Seasonalities feature does identify this

time of the year as often soft. However, one of our clues is the

velocity of a decline, as rapid ones tend to arouse more readily the

Mass Fear seen at Bottoms. In that regard, resisting the entirely

normal

urge to panic, TDLrs should now calmly observe the high volume often

seen at capitulations near Bottom Formations.

Long-term TDLrs and seasoned investors might remember previous

Consolidations and how holding an iron hand on the tiller proved so

financially rewarding. How? Stock prices themselves can inflame our

emotions, but cold-eyed reason dictates that buying near Bottoms can be

especially profitable, especially when we fear that a decline might

never end. Indeed, buying when fearful is usually more profitable than

when confident, reflecting back on those times.

In fact, the uranium-mining industry itself is in the midst of

massive agglomeration, in a race to get large enough to attract big

buying by funds and other big money. Take Mega for example, a company

high on the list of predatory acquirors, who must be licking their

chops

at the prospect of buying it at a discount. Pinetree is down a few

points, and other favorites such as Laramide, Mega and Fronteer are

increasingly on the bargain counter as they edge lower toward tempting

the buyers. We especially favor Oversold stocks such as numbers 8 & 9

in

Supervised List #4, and stock number 3 in Supervised List #5. They'd

previously risen a lot, and this is normal, partial "give-back" time.

Nobody could promise to lead you to buy on the exact bottom day, but we

believe that today is a good candidate for a "Buy"

because enough is enough and next week should see a pretty good rally

in

uranium-mining shares. This Consolidation has been across-the-board

rather than company-specific, so averaging down on any of your uraniums

is appropriate, as usual spreading out into as many uraniums as your

capital allows.

What are the risks? A terrorist event, but this has been with us

all the way up. A decline in the price of uranium, which we think is

near a Consolidation also, or government sales of the metal. But none

of

those changes the equation that uranium is in desperate shortage so

declines can be expected to be temporary only and go even higher later.

Next TDL to be published on 25 May 2007.

[drbubb]

These stocks have been killed in recent days - but it could be time to buy

- with stocks like Laramide hitting $4.00 today (25% of this year's peak price)

 

Here's the sort of negative news coming out...

 

"URANIUM FACTS" - he called it...

 

Uranium stocks have been experiencing selling pressure recently, and likely will continue selloff until market find support. Here are the uranium facts we have to admit:

1. Uranium is pulling back from high $135, and won't stop dropping in short term. Bloomberg predict Uranium likely to test $60-$70 in near future. Now this prediction is lower than previous $90 target, which to me seems Uranium is going down further over time. Bloomberg link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mp;refer=canada

 

2. Australia uranium miners are under pressure. Australian uranium companies, PDN, LAM, MGA, and some other names are falling fast compared to Canadian peers. Reasons been simple, Australian government mums on the uranium regulation. and these companies likely need longer time going to production. for that reason, PDN, LAM,MGA will further slide. PDN and LAM will have no support below $5, like MGA did recently, when MGA dropped below %4, accelorated drop and now its trading at $3. PDN and LAM will likely follow if no major news coming from these companies.

 

3. US government will put 200Mlbs Uranium on market for auction in the coming month, will further push uranium down to lower level. don't forget Russian will sell all weapon uranium to market as well. don't blame them, both just want to profit from the uranium market.

 

4. the fact is that , base on bloomberg report, uranium demand current is only 800,000Lbs. production is much higher, now that donesn't mean future uranium demands won't follow. but for near future, Bloomberg seems bearsh on uranium.

 

5. Subprime meltdown will hurt uranium stock further. like Peter Grandich said," right now no one knows what 's going to happen tomorrow, but the future is unfolding". very interesting. wall st is prediction market will fall further 10% to reach 20% correction if subprime crisis solved. if not, we will see correction of another dot com like in 1999.

 

@: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewm...0&TableID=0

[drbubb]

I'M BUYING - these stocks are now cheap enough IMHO.

 

Buying/Bought Laramide (LAM.t) near $4.40 and Mawson (MAW.v) near $1.30

 

===

 

Go back and listen to the podcast (with Jim Dines) - & check prices then

You will see how right I was then to be cautious

 

(now if I can just get my gold portfolio moving the right way...)

[TinBrick]

Interesting commentary here on Mr Dines's long-term results

 

http://investment.suite101.com/article.cfm/jim_dines

[DontPanic]

One for the brave is URA.L

Drilling results out soon (expected within the next week), and they got mugged again today.

If they have any sense they will contrive a way to delay the results until the market calms.

Like i said one for the brave but could easily double or triple on the results.... look at the chart.

[drbubb]

If you look out 15 years or longer, Jim's portfolios have significantly underperformed the Wilshire 5000.

 

The "The Hulbert Financial Digest's Long Term Performance Ratings" shows results for Jim Dines' many portfolios dating back to 1980. It looks like Jim got off to a rough start because Hulbert shows Dines' average annual return back to 1980 is only 7.3% while the Wilshire5000 is up 12.8%.

 

Lets see how much $10,000 invested on 6/30/80 compounding at 7.3% grows to through 1/1/2006 then compare it to 12.8% a compound growth rate.

 

$10,000 at 7.3%/yr from 6/30/80 through 12/31/05 = $689,168

 

That looks pretty good until you compare it to the Wilshire 5000's 12.8% average annual return

 

$10,000 at 12.8%/yr from 6/30/80 through 12/31/05 = $1,607,759

 

If you want an expert on what precious metal stocks to own, Jim Dines looks to be your man. However, you may do far better investing in the Wilshire5000 index for better long-term results.

[DontPanic]

If you want an expert on what precious metal stocks to own, Jim Dines looks to be your man. However, you may do far better investing in the Wilshire5000 index for better long-term results.

I like the idea of having 50% in long term holdings in solid if unspectacular funds and then the remainder rotating around hot sectors ideally getting out before it goes pop and moving on to the next 'Dines'. Having said that i didnt follow any of his tips. My main stocks were UUU and UMN which got taken out near the peak. The big U stock SXR has taken a real beating the past few months.

 

U buyers will come back in the fall and only then will you find out the real price. There are not enough sales going through at the moment.

[Walktothewater]

I "backed up the truck" on Laramide on Thursday, tripled my position. unfortunately my buy-on-stop got triggered at C$5.10, if I had've waited until Friday another 20% cheaper. but, happy enough..

 

awaiting cheaper prices for PDN and DML...

[Medor]

What does Dines say on Uranium stocks in his last report?

 

Any mention of Western Metals WMT.ASX?

more drill results are expected in the coming weeks...could be very promising

[drbubb]

What does Dines say on Uranium stocks in his last report?

 

 

The recent huge collapse in U shares may have cost Dines quite a few readers.

It is dangerous to get so overwhlemingly bullish

[Walktothewater]

The recent huge collapse in U shares may have cost Dines quite a few readers.

It is dangerous to get so overwhlemingly bullish

Hey DrB have you unloaded your LAM shares?

 

Im in process of profit taking on some August purchases (LAM, DML, PDN) – selling 50% of those purchases today. It took all the courage I had to buy them when the sky was falling, but the risk was rewarded. There’s a lesson here somewhere…

[drbubb]

Hey DrB have you unloaded your LAM shares?

 

Im in process of profit taking on some August purchases (LAM, DML, PDN) – selling 50% of those purchases today. It took all the courage I had to buy them when the sky was falling, but the risk was rewarded. There’s a lesson here somewhere…

 

I have sold less that half, on the rally from my cost ($4.50) to nearly $8.00.

Lesson: "Buy when there's blood on the street*." ... and when its deeply oversold, and touching a key MA.

(But also make sure the stock is support by a good fundamental argument.)

 

*this was attributed to Nathan Rothschild

[munsterkings]

What does Dines say on Uranium stocks in his last report?

 

Any mention of Western Metals WMT.ASX?

more drill results are expected in the coming weeks...could be very promising

Western Metals finds more uranium at Mtonya

Sunday, October 21, 2007; Posted: 07:50 PM

 

Sydney, Oct 22, 2007 (RWE via COMTEX) -- WTLC | charts | news | PowerRating -- (RWE Aust Business News) Western Metals (ASX:WMT) reports drilling and trenching at Mtonya project, Tanzania, continue to discover uranium mineralisation over a 7 kilometre trend.

 

Trenching shows high grade uranium over a 1.4 kilometre strike at Grandfather prospect including 1.2 metres at 7,723ppm and 0.8 metres at 1,035m ppm.

 

First drilling at Moysten prospect shows high grade uranium including 3m at 863m ppm U3O8 from 46m, 3m at 750ppm from 47m, 2m at 355ppm from 32m.

 

Drilling at Para and Henri prospects continue to return mineralisation.

 

Drilling has recommenced on the project and will continue throughout October.

 

from http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/S...%20News/724162/

 

 

Munsterk

[frizzers]

Dines' low-priced stocks taking a bit of a hit

 

 

 

[drbubb]

v.ASX Alberta Star.. 102.7 $ 0.86 $ 88.3mn :

t.CZQ Contl Precious 46.11 $ 1.97 $ 87.6mn :

v.BAY Bayswater Ur.. 93.39 $ 1.20 $112.1mn :

v.CHX Cash Minerals. 80.58 $ 0.64 $ 51.6mn :

v.TVC Tournigan Gold 118.8 $ 2.31 $274.4mn :

v.MAW Mawson Res.... 36.16 $ 1.54 $ 55.7mn :

v.UPC Uranium Power. 97.44 $ 0.73 $ 71.1mn :

v.SSE Silver Spruce. 31.06 $ 0.97 $ 30.1mn :

v.URC Urancan Res... 49.34 $ 0.76 $ 37.5mn :

[Walktothewater]

v.ASX Alberta Star.. 102.7 $ 0.86 $ 88.3mn :

t.CZQ Contl Precious 46.11 $ 1.97 $ 87.6mn :

v.BAY Bayswater Ur.. 93.39 $ 1.20 $112.1mn :

v.CHX Cash Minerals. 80.58 $ 0.64 $ 51.6mn :

v.TVC Tournigan Gold 118.8 $ 2.31 $274.4mn :

v.MAW Mawson Res.... 36.16 $ 1.54 $ 55.7mn :

v.UPC Uranium Power. 97.44 $ 0.73 $ 71.1mn :

v.SSE Silver Spruce. 31.06 $ 0.97 $ 30.1mn :

v.URC Urancan Res... 49.34 $ 0.76 $ 37.5mn :

 

picked up some CHX today at C$0.63... risk/return best of the pack IMO (SAN.V was looking cheap too, but has rallied recently and missed my C$0.50 entry)... CHX doing loads of drilling to end of year, Yukon... potential for a triple if good news news

[drbubb]

picked up some CHX today at C$0.63...

 

I liked the chart there too.

 

I only waited because I believe we may see a bit of a slide in the markets.

 

However, I Bought some OYM.t yesterday (not a uranium stock)

[Medor]

I liked the chart there too.

 

I only waited because I believe we may see a bit of a slide in the markets.

 

However, I Bought some OYM.t yesterday (not a uranium stock)

 

 

DOW is down today. Many uranium stocks up on ASX.

Spot price & Nymex futures up.

Next leg of uranium bull could be starting...

[drbubb]

bump

[MoonUnit]

New Scientist article on uranium

 

 

Uranium mining looks like a good bet to me.

 

Any commitments to cut CO2 emmisions will probably need to be backed up by building lots of new nuclear power stations.

[jerpy]

CanAlaska CVV - TSX.V had more news Friday, with it's acquisition from Hawk seems to have a lot going for me.

 

Held Kalahari KAH all year, was wondering whether to take profits as stuttering a bit of late, but that Rossing south prospect looks so strong finding it hard to let go though; beginning to wonder if i'm being sentimentally foolish here with a good winner thats multi bagged.

 

Cashed in Hathor HAT - TSX.V when it spiked on summer drilling news, but maybe one to watch as it's retraced.

 

My long term associated favourite small play is Lightbridge LTBR (formerly known as Thorium Power - THPW) this peaked on heavy volumes following it's NASDAQ listing, volumes fell off though and some geezer called Bubb educated me to watch for those sort of signals. Guess what, it retraced heavily, bought back in recently the same stake basically on a free ride now as a long term tuck away play on the Thorium story!

 

 

Noticed Khan Resources TSX: T.KRI surged on friday undersome sector consolidation play, is this something people following the sector are expecting?

 

[emel]

An interesting thread. In fact, interesting enough to make me sign up! Firstly, I'd like to thank Dr B and others for making this site so informative. I'm a sucker for research, and I love the breadth of opinions and analysis on this forum.

 

I'm currently in cash (dollars and sterling) and equities but want to diversify into holding some metals. I'm doing this because I believe that my equities are overdue a correction plus I'm concerned that I haven't done enough to protect my assets against currency weakness. My personal opinion is that gold may keep on going up, but I've missed too much of the action to consider buying. It's common sense to me to try and buy assets when they are undervalued not after they've been gaining in value for months - basically, there must be something better value out there.

 

From reading this site and articles like http://awe.sm/20QZl I think some junior miners with exposure to uranium may be this better value thing, despite some recent gains.

 

So, assuming that junior miners are the best uranium play, what should I have on my shortlist? Also, am I too late for this too?

 

-emel

 

 

 

[emel]

So, assuming that junior miners are the best uranium play, what should I have on my shortlist?

 

-emel

 

OK, so I note that in the other Uranium thread (which maybe I should have posted in rather than this one), there's a link to an interesting discussion with Merrill McHenry - http://awe.sm/21EDI

 

He mentions

 

Strathmore Minerals Corp. (STM.V) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STM.V

Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=URRE

Pitchstone Exploration Ltd. (PXP.V) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PXP.V

Mega Uranium Ltd. (MGA.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MGA.TO

Denison Mines Inc. (DML.TO) (DNN) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DML.TO

Toro Energy Ltd. (TOE.AX) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TOE.AX

 

Another earlier Energy Report has a lot of repetition - http://awe.sm/21EFI

 

For those of us with short attention spans, Get Money ran a concise September article of "The 5 Largest, Most-Traded Uranium Stocks in Canada." - http://awe.sm/21EFX

 

Cameco (CCO.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CCO.TO

Uranium One Inc. (UUU.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UUU.TO

First Uranium Corporation. (FIU.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FIU.TO

Denison Mines Corp. (DML.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DML.TO

Uranium Participation Corp. (U.TO) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=U.TO

 

This gives me a good starting point. I will be concentrating my research on Uranium stocks that do most of their business in Canada, I fear the instability of Kazahstan and I've already covered Australia by holding BHP in my high yield portfolio as my token miner.

 

-emel