Beating Buy and Hold (thru disciplined speculation)

[drbubb]

I Jumped in and bought some SLV in the pre-market:

Buy - Shares of SLV

Details Filled at $31.33

BOT : SLV at $31.33 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1

As it went up, I placed a "trailing stop" below it, and just got Stopped out:

 

Sell Shares of SLV / Details Filled at $31.99

SOLD : SLV at $31.99 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (+$31,990 : +AP#1)

 

That's a profit of: $31,990 - $31,330 = $660, which "pays for" 44% of the FCX puts:

 

BOT : FCX-Jan.$30 Puts at $ 1.50 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 : (-$1,500 : -AP#1)

 

A neat little pre-market scalp trade, with the profit now "banked" in FCX puts

 

Those puts are now at $1.70, with FCX at $38.77

[drbubb]

Looking at the SLW Bull Spread: http://tinyurl.com/beatingBH

slw:Ja$25c $5.50 / $6.70 : now : $ 8.17 = 8.10-8.25

slw:Ja$32c $3.75 / $2.19 : now : $ 2.84 = 2.82-2.86

======================= :

Spread---: $1.75 / $4.51 : now : $ 5.33

It has a Max. potential value of : $ 7.00, so is 76.1% of this now

Updating prices:

Spread---: $1.75 / $4.51 : now : $ 5.33

I take it off at: $5.30

SLW.$25 c: $8.15 : +$8,150 : SOLD SLW-Jan.$25c at $8.15 x 1,000 shs : (+$8,150 : +AP1)

SLW.$32 c: $2.85 + -$2,850 : BOT. SLW-Jan.$32c at $2.85 x 1,000 shs : (-$2,850 : +AP1)

[drbubb]

SLVjan$25c / originally BOT at $8.42

 

Latest:

Bid Sell-SLV120121C25 to Open7.60 x 470

Ask Buy--SLV120121C25 to Open7.70 x 146

 

SOLD SLV-Jan.$25c at $7.60 x 1,000 shs

 

It looks like I sold the SLW Bull Spread a bit too soon,

with SLW today: $34.15 + $0.57

 

(in edit, with SLV on day's low: $31.71 -0.29)

 

That SLV-Jan.$25 call that I sold has now fallen to about $7.00

 

The Jan.$30c is: $3.00-3.05 (I own some), and I had considered buying more today at $3.00, to capture some value from the above trade, but I shall wait. I might buy them at $2.60, which would mean I have the same upside as I have with the $25Calls, but with $5 less money at risk.

[drbubb]

SLVjan$25c / originally BOT at $8.42

Latest:

Bid Sell-SLV120121C25 to Open7.60 x 470

Ask Buy--SLV120121C25 to Open7.70 x 146

 

SOLD SLV-Jan.$25c at $7.60 x 1,000 shs

I have another 1,000 of the SLV-Jan.$25 Calls to sell

 

Bid:$7.55 / Offer:$7.65 - with SLV at $32.32

 

Sell 1,000 more:

SOLD SLV-Jan.$25c at $7.60 x 1,000 shs

 

== ==

(in edit)

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -ZSL111217C11 / Filled at $1.20 x 2,000

 

BOT ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.20 x 2,000 shs

[drbubb]

PRICE: 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1 10/21'1 10/14'1 : 10/7/11

SLV--: $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 : $30.48 : $31.34 : $30.23 :

Chg.- : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 : -$0.86 : +$1.11 : +$1.32 :

Silver : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 : $31.36 : $32.17 : $31.23 :

Prem. : +$1.08 : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 : +$0.88 : +$0.83 : +$1.00 :

ZSL-- : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 : $14.24 : $13.66 : $14.83 :

$42-X : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 : $27.76 : $28.34 : $27.17 :

ZX/slv : 00.00%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%: 91.51%: 90.31%: 91.08%: 90.42%: 89.88%:

====

DXY-- : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 : 76.276 : 76.607 : 78.753:

UUP-- : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 : $21.54 : $21.65 : 22.270 :

CRB--- : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 : 311.08 : 317.18 : 303.52 :

DBA---: $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 : $30.76 : $31.18 : $29.89 :

Rsilver : : 0.000 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 : 7.569 : 7.848 : 7.640 : :

===

Ap$23c: $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 : $9.62 : $8.97 / $8.35 /

Ap$30c: $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 : $7.27 : $6.77 : $5.97 :

Ja.$27c: $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 : $4.15 :

Ja.$30c: $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

Ja.$35c: $0.73 : $0.71 : $2.09 : $2.09 : $2.09 :: $2.71 : $1.46 : $1.77 : $1.89 : $1.66 :

ATX.v--: 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 : $0.67 : $0.68 : $0.61 :

DBA$30c $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 : $2.17 : $1.52 : $1.42 :

FcxD$29p : $1.28 / $1.50 /

SlwJ$25c $8.27 : $6.70 : $7.90 : 11.65 : 11.62 :: 11.47 : $6.37 / $5.50 /

SlwJ$32c $2.77 : $2.19 : $3.02 : $5.85 : $6.00 :: $5.82 / $3.75 /

ZslD$11c : $1.52 / $1.20 /

GldD$134 35.80 : 29.87 : 33.87 : 40.12 : 37.05 :: 35.95 / 24.0 /

hk2840g- 1322. : 1278. : 1308. : 1336. : 1331. / 1,000 / $7.77

GLD-ny$ 169.82 : 163.4 : 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

SOLD SLV JAN.$35c at $0.85 x 1,000 shares = (+0,850 : AP#1 )

SOLD: GLD-Dec.$134c at $33.00 x 200 shs : (+$ 6,600 : +AP1)

BOT : SLV at $31.33 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (-$31,330 : -AP#1)

SOLD : SLV at $31.99 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (+$31,990 : +AP#1)

BOT : FCX-Dec.$29 Puts at $ 1.50 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 : (-$1,500 : -AP#1)

SOLD SLW-Jan.$25c at $8.15 x 1,000 shs : (+$ 8,150 : +AP1)

BOT. SLW-Jan.$32c at $2.85 x 1,000 shs : (-$ 2,850 : -AP1)

SOLD SLV-Jan.$25c at $7.60 x 2,000 shs : (+$15,200 : +AP1)

BOT. ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.20 x 2,000 shs : (-$ 2,400 : -AP1)

Trades Last Week:

SOLD SLV JAN.$35c at $0.95 x 1,000 shares = (+0,950 : AP#1 )

BOT SLV Jan.$27c at $4.40 x 2,000 shares = (-$8,800 : AP#1 )

==========

Cash: start.Wk / EndofWk== / Core-start / End / ==Chg.Cash

(at last week)

AP1: $358,593 / $383,303 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: +$850 +$26,260 -$2,400

/ chg. in cash /: $24,710

+$850 +$6,600 +($31,990-31,330) -$1,500 +$8,150 -$2,850 +$15,200 -$2,400

AP2: $274,595 / $274,595 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: No change

==========

 

/History : http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[drbubb]

"The price of gold is going to crash."

 

Indeed, it has rallied to near a downtrend line on very light volume

 

GLD / Gold etf chart ... update : GLD-vs-SLV : SLV

 

 

SLV/Silver is even weaker, and some may have noticed that I have now moved to a somewhat Bearish stance in my (aggressive) Alternative Portfolio (AP#1)

 

Beating B&H update: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[drbubb]

BOTH GLD/Gold and SLV/Silver are up today...

 

GLD : $166.73 + $3.33 / + 2.04% (hi: $167.14)

SLV : $ 31.22 + $1.02 / + 3.37% (hi: $31.36)

Ratio 5.34

 

I am thinking of how to exit the Dec.$134.calls - they expire in less than 3 weeks.

I think I might "leg out", by leaning on the SLV calls I bought on Friday.

I haven't boughtback the Gold/GLD/HK2840 short yet - so I am now short 200 GLD shares in the BBH-AP1 portfolio.

At the same time, I have moved down from an aggregate Long position of 10,000 oz/shs to 8,000 oz/shs.

 

So I am now the MOST BEARISH that I have been in some time in this AP1-BBH portfolio.

Thus, I have an interest in this Ratio.

 

UPDATE:

GLD : $169.82 + $0.19 / + 0.11% (hi: $170.80)

SLV : $ 31.65 - $0.208 / - 0.65% (hi: $32.39)

Ratio 5.366 (5.273 on highs, was recently 5.34)

 

Is SLV "abandoning" GLD at its highs... again ? / update : from-Mid-2010

 

[drbubb]

Is SLV "abandoning" GLD at its highs... again ? / update : from-Mid-2010

Here's a chart looking at this over a longer term: ... LongerTerm-SLV

 

 

It is hard to be bullish when you see a chart like this, and especially if you take notice of the very light volume on the latest rise.

[BradleyWong]

 

It is hard to be bullish when you see a chart like this, and especially if you take notice of the very light volume on the latest rise.

I will disagree with "hard to be bullish", if Silver can push through the Moving average (55 days?) with rising volume.

 

We saw that in July, and it went on rising for two months afterwards !!

[nbarter]

I will disagree with "hard to be bullish", if Silver can push through the Moving average (55 days?) with rising volume.

 

We saw that in July, and it went on rising for two months afterwards !!

 

But the move was up through a falling MA, signalling that the move likely did not have legs. Sure enough it peaked in Augst and fell hard in Sept. Given the MA is again falling i suspect if it did move through it the move would be shortlived again with the best hope being a test of the falling trendline around $36 before a big reversal.

[drbubb]

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -ZSL111217C11 / Filled at $1.20 x 2,000

BOT ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.20 x 2,000 shs

Running out of time - These expire next friday.

So I decided to Grab the profit on them:

 

Sell to Close Call / Contracts of -ZSL111217C11

Details Filled at $1.90

 

SOLD ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.90 x 2,000 shs (+$3,800 : +AP1)

 

(in edit):

Sold these at breakeven, after they rallied in value today:

 

Sell to Close Put / Contracts of -FCX111217P39

Details Filled at $1.40

 

SOLD FCX-Dec.$39p at $1.40 x 1,000 shs (+$1,400 : +AP1)

[drbubb]

I will disagree with "hard to be bullish", if Silver can push through the Moving average (55 days?) with rising volume.

We saw that in July, and it went on rising for two months afterwards !!

Yeah, but we never saw much of a rally.

 

Gold and Silver are sliding again now, and SLV looks like it is headed for a test of $30.

I have orders in now to Buy Jan and April Calls

[drbubb]

And you should chill out a bit and foster a "live and let live" attitude.

 

For the non day trader, the chart is abundantly clear that buy and hold has paid off very well.... and with the minimum of time and effort. Give it its dues.

 

I think the "argument" you have is with the 100% "all in" and 100% certain crowd. Actually, the majority that buy gold... and hold, have only put a reasonable percentage of their worth into it... and more often than not hedge that "investment".

I am long gold now, and have been throughout the rally - But I adjust the size of my position up and down to take advantage of buying and selling windows.

 

The BIG DIFFERENCE between my approach and some of the Gold Bugs here is that I take nothing for granted - We can be certain that the Top we have seen is not an important one, because: "Anything can happen."

 

What is ominous now for some of the Bulls is that Open Interest in Gold and Silver continues to shrink, as people DESERT the Godl trade. That's not bullish (yet). The holdings wil need to stabilise before we have a godo low.

 

I may buy this DIP in Silver, but I can do so because I took money off the table at higher prices.

 

I am living and Gold-investing on my wits here. I don't have a nice fat salary replenishing my investing capital, which is another important difference from some others here. I am "forced" by that to take some profits, so I have money to invest at lower profits. If you are lucky enough to have a job that puts investible capital into your bank account, then be grateful you do not need to live on the sharp end. But I suggest you resist the urge to criticise those that do live that way (successfully) and are willing to share their thoughts here, without "something to sell you", or a vested interest in higher gold prices.

[drbubb]

... first posted on the GOLD thread - reminding people of a little history from the early days of this thread:

... Ask Gerald Celente about his paper gold.

Okay.

And ask Bob Chapman about his $18 average price silver !

We have enough history now that we can see how the Hold only strategy works:

(Posted 04 May 2011 - 08:00 AM / DrB's Diary)

The Bob Chapman / Perma-bull WATCH, No.1

 

I like the guy's thinking often, but I am going to pick on him, because I find he and Chris Walzek just a little "too sure of themselves", and I think they are going to "lead their listeners down the garden path" once again - as they did in 2008.

 

So here goes...

Bob Chapman says: "Buy Silver, and Keep buying... I am long at an average of $18."

 

Let's see how good this advice is. I warned people we might see a top at about $50, and identified selling or swapping windows at about $48. Let's see how that compares with the perma-bull strategy.

 

At an $18 Cost, Bob had a $30 profit at $48...

At Tuesday's low near $40:

His $30 profit, was down to $22 - That's a 26.7% drop !

 

Let's monitor this, as we go. I think silver is headed lower, and you will get a chance soon to buy at $35, perhaps lower. If you want to beat the Perma-Bull, then you would take the $30 profit - on 10,000 ounces, that's $300,000 - an buy back those 10,000 ounces at $35. You would be then locking in a better case situation.

 

You would have received $480,000 when you sold out at the top, and it would cost you $350,000 to re-enter. The $130,000 you have left would be pure and protected profit, which you could then use to buy silver, if it fell even further - beating the Perma-bull strategy by a country mile.

 

His "$18 Average price" is probably now a $25 average price silver by now, if he kept adding along the way.

 

Celente has a decent chance of getting most of his money back, after a historically strange financial disaster.

 

Those who bought Silver at $50, held for a while, and then got stopped out at $40, $35, or maybe $30 may not see their money again. Even if they bought without leverage, they missed a wonderful selling opportunity, that the Silver rampers on shows like Goldseek dismissed, while several folks (not just me) were sounding warnings here.

[drbubb]

I WILL FINISH WITH THIS NOW - This is the last on this subject for now

 

People do not get it. They still call it "gloating", suggesting that there is nothing to learn from history...

 

Bubb

 

I admire and respect you but why do you persist in coming onto this thread and gloating?

 

Very few of us on this thread have the time or the inclination to do what you do for your living - that's the point of a buy and hold strategy.

 

Will you be happy to see us all on the trading thread if you take a big hit one day, chortling about your losses?

 

I really worry that the casualt investor new to this game will be deterred from taking an initial position because of all the noise.

 

Please can you keep the trading banter to the trading thread.

 

Bos.

I am not gloating !

Have you failed to read my post carefully?

 

I am against :

+ Complacency (and many here still have that !)

+ Ramping Gold at high prices

+ The inability of some to understand some simple options hedging strategies.

 

I think it is time people here move on to a more sophisticated view of the Gold market, and showed that they are less enthralled by a simple-minded Buy and Hold strategy. There's a chance that B&H may fail people in a major way! I saw that happen back in the 1980's after the price spike up in 1980, and I am doing my best here to get people to learn from history, and not repeat the same mistake.

 

Is this so hard to understand?

 

The BBH thread is a testimony to flexibility, so I hope by now people will see there's some wisdom in that approach.

 

What I am hoping for in posting this is to get some to realise that there are selling opportunities that should not be missed (with at least a part of your holdings.) Perhaps one or two could post here that they have learned something from this big decline and will be less tolerant of the bullish nonsense, and more aware of how dangerous it is in the next spike up when they see it in the Gold, Silver, or some other market.

[drbubb]

PRICE: 12/08'1 12/02'1 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1 10/21'1 10/14'1 :

SLV--: $31.33 : $31.65 : $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 : $30.48 : $31.34 :

Chg.- : -$0.32 : +$1.45 : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 : -$0.86 : +$1.11 :

Silver : $32.23 : $32.73 : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 : $31.36 : $32.17 :

Prem. : +$0.90 : +$1.08 : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 : +$0.88 : +$0.83 :

ZSL-- : $12.51 : $12.32 : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 : $14.24 : $13.66 :

$42-X : $29.49 : $29.68 : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 : $27.76 : $28.34 :

ZX/slv : 94.13%: 93.78%: 93.51%: 92.93%: 91.35%: 91.51%: 90.31%: 91.08%: 90.42%:

====

DXY-- : 78.935 : 78.683 : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 : 76.276 : 76.607 :

UUP-- : $22.12 : $22.12 : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 : $21.54 : $21.65 :

CRB--- : 306.43 : 313.55 : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 : 311.08 : 317.18 :

DBA---: $28.01 : $28.76 : $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 : $30.76 : $31.18 :

Rsilver : : 0.000 :: 0.000 :: 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 : 7.569 : 7.848 :

===

Ap$23c: $8.97 : $9.42 : $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 : $9.62 : $8.97 /

Ap$30c: $3.95 : $4.35 : $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $6.52 : $6.97 : $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 : $7.27 : $6.77 :

Ja.$27c: $4.72 : $5.20 : $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $3.90 : $4.37 : $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 : $4.15 :

Ja.$30c: $2.44 : $2.93 : $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

Ja.$35c: $0.47 : $0.73 : $0.71 : $2.09 : $2.09 : $2.09 :: $2.71 : $1.46 : $1.77 : $1.89 :

ATX.v--: 0.325 : 0.355 : $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 : $0.67 : $0.68 :

DBA$30c $0.15 : $0.35 : $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 : $2.17 : $1.52 :

FcxD$29p :$1.07 : $1.28 / $1.50 /

ZslD$11c: $0.00 : $1.52 / $1.20 /

GldD$134 32.40 : 35.80 : 29.87 : 33.87 : 40.12 : 37.05 :: 35.95 / 24.0 /

hk2840g- 1293. : 1322. : 1278. : 1308. : 1336. : 1331. / 1,000 / $7.77

GLD-ny$ 166.40 : 169.82 : 163.4 : 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

SOLD ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.90 x 2,000 shs (+$3,800 : +AP1)

SOLD FCX-Dec.$39p at $1.40 x 1,000 shs (+$1,400 : +AP1)

Trades Last Week:

SOLD SLV JAN.$35c at $0.85 x 1,000 shares = (+0,850 : AP#1 )

SOLD: GLD-Dec.$134c at $33.00 x 200 shs : (+$ 6,600 : +AP1)

BOT : SLV at $31.33 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (-$31,330 : -AP#1)

SOLD : SLV at $31.99 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (+$31,990 : +AP#1)

BOT : FCX-Dec.$29 Puts at $ 1.50 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 : (-$1,500 : -AP#1)

SOLD SLW-Jan.$25c at $8.15 x 1,000 shs : (+$ 8,150 : +AP1)

BOT. SLW-Jan.$32c at $2.85 x 1,000 shs : (-$ 2,850 : -AP1)

SOLD SLV-Jan.$25c at $7.60 x 2,000 shs : (+$15,200 : +AP1)

BOT. ZSL-Dec.$11c at $1.20 x 2,000 shs : (-$ 2,400 : -AP1)

 

==========

Cash: start.Wk / EndofWk== / Core-start / End / ==Chg.Cash

(at last week - needs updating)

AP1: $383,303 / $388,503 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: +$3,800 +$1,400 = $388,503

AP2: $274,595 / $274,595 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: No change

=== ===

 

Spreadsheet: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[drbubb]

"I will later be looking to buyback half of the short

on HK:2840 at a price of: $166.73 x 7.80 = $1300 or less. (200 shares)"

So that's almost exactly where HK's version of GLD is trading:

HK-2840 : 1,298.00 +4.00 ... HK2840-chart

I am going to wait a bit longer, "risking some profit" on the Ag/Au Ratio

(I am long SLV calls x1,000, and short HK2840 x 200 shares)

I'm buying in the small Uncovered Short on GLD/HK-2840 with only a few minutes left in HK's trading day.

 

Price paid: HK$1,280 for 200 shares - that's equivalent to GLD-US$164.52 (ie $1280 / 7.78)

 

I think gold could fall lower, but I wanted to remove the uncovered Gold/GLD short since it could be a volatile week.

[drbubb]

A Cheap way into Silver?

PAAS might be.

 

I am trying these, only 1,000 shares so far:

 

Buy to Open Call

10 Contracts of -PAAS111217C22 / PAAS Dec.$22call

Details Filled at $1.70 (with stock at PAAS-$23.55)

 

I will have to trade out of these before Friday, or exercise

=== ===

 

(in edit: 12:30 NYT):

 

added these:

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -SLV120421C27 / SLV Apr.$27call

Details Filled at $5.00 (x 1,000)

 

... some other orders are in ...

 

Added more

Contracts of -SLV120421C27 / SLV Apr.$27call

Details Filled at $5.10 (x 1,000)

[drbubb]

This filled after I went to bed :

 

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -SLW120317C27 / SLW Mar.$27 call

Details Filled at $6.20 (x1,000)

[drbubb]

A Cheap way into Silver?

PAAS might be.

I am trying these, only 1,000 shares so far:

Buy to Open Call

10 Contracts of -PAAS111217C22 / PAAS Dec.$22call

Details Filled at $1.70 (with stock at PAAS-$23.55)

 

I will have to trade out of these before Friday, or exercise

That didn't last long!

I'm out:

Sell to Close Call

Contracts of -PAAS111217C22 / PAAS Dec.$22c

Details Filled at $2.85

 

I will use the profit to subsidize other trades, like SLW

[drbubb]

From DrB's Diary...

Why are you confident of a turn?

144dma broken. Gold now trading below significant suppor (now resistance) @$1680?

I am not terribly confident - but I note that SLV has held the 377d MA (so far)

 

I bought: SLV-Apr.$27 Calls at $5.00, in modest size.

 

I'm not ready to "back up the truck" just yet, but I want some more SLV exposure.

I am leaving powder dry to buy more aggressively, if $30 is broken decisively.

=== ===

 

Another reason I want Silver: The weak Euro

 

EUR Broke Key support at $1.32 !

 

This is short term positive for the dollar, which is up today.

We could even get the long-awaited SPIKE in the US$, but it

may not last long.

==== ====

 

(in edit):

Buy to Open Call

20 Contracts of -KGC120218C11 / KGC Feb.$11call

Details Filled at $1.83

[jsr]

From DrB's Diary...

 

I am not terribly confident - but I note that SLV has held the 377d MA (so far)

 

I bought: SLV-Apr.$27 Calls at $5.00, in modest size.

 

I'm not ready to "back up the truck" just yet, but I want some more SLV exposure.

I am leaving powder dry to buy more aggressively, if $30 is broken decisively.

=== ===

 

Another reason I want Silver: The weak Euro

 

EUR Broke Key support at $1.32 !

 

This is short term positive for the dollar, which is up today.

We could even get the long-awaited SPIKE in the US$, but it

may not last long.

==== ====

 

(in edit):

Buy to Open Call

20 Contracts of -KGC120218C11 / KGC Feb.$11call

Details Filled at $1.83

 

Careful, Gold may be done here!

 

BTW, why do you think a weak euro is good for silver?

[drbubb]

Careful, Gold may be done here!

BTW, why do you think a weak euro is good for silver?

Short term, a weak Euro is probably bearish for Silver-priced-in-US$.

 

I expect money to flood into the US$ if the EUR continues to fall.

We may even get a spike in the US$. If we do (as we did in 2008), then I will use that

spike to buy (cheaper) gold and silver, because the rise in the dollar may be followed

by a sharp fall in the Dollar (against precious metals.) If fact, I have been expecting

a pattern like that.

 

This Jump in the Dollar and fall back, (if it comes), could easily be complete within

2-3 months. This is why I bought April Calls, rather than January Calls.

 

Please note that SLV Calls risk less money ($5) than does an outright buy.

 

I see that SLV fell by the close ($29.82 -$0.67) as the Euro fell (FXE-$129.80 -$1.59)

so it looks like things are about to get interesting.

[drbubb]

ORDERS HIT - I have added Silver exposure:

 

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -AGQ120121C40 / AGQ- Jan.$40c

Details Filled at $9.50

 

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -SLW120317C25 / SLW- Mar.$25c

Details Filled at $5.76

 

Later, I doubled these positions:

With :

+ AGQ- Jan.$40c at $8.80

+ SLW- Mar.$25c at $5.40

[drbubb]

...sorry, but I could resist posting this here too- I wanted the GLD chart...

 

GOLD : now bloomberg is talking about today's "big plunge in Gold"

 

We have hit my target (near GLD-$152) and so I am buying more aggressively.

Do you remember this chart? We have completed, or nearly completed the historical pattern:

 

GLD WEEKLY ... update : SLV-weekly

 

Right now, I am expecting something like a repeat of Gold's 2006 pattern

Today, I have bought:

+ AGQ Calls (2x Silver)

+ SLW Calls

+ UGL Calls (2x Gold)

 

I like responding to opportunity (as shown in my charts) rather than following the rampers on mainstream media, who love to promote investing in Gold when the price is high.