Beating Buy and Hold (thru disciplined speculation)

[Pixel8r]

Pix, why not get yourself set up with a broker to buy options (obviously not for trading in your case), but why not look at them even to hedge a position? (As an insurance policy). For the buy and holders with all net worth tied to one position/sector, it would make sense to at least consider it. It's seems obvious that hyperinflation will result but the truth is, no-one actually knows what the end result will be, plenty claim to know whilst others are 100% certain of hyperinflation.

 

Look at what's happening to the Japanese ¥, look how strong it is, and look at the state of Japan, (the housing market, bond market etc). Who could have imagined the ¥ could be where it is now a few years ago. True, they have Mrs Watanabe however I don't see an awful lot preventing the US government taking capturing funds from "Joe the plumber" and "Mr and Mrs White Picket Fence" by enacting some obscure legislation meaning x% of pensions have to be invested in treasuries or within US borders.

 

When things get desperate, they will do desperate things.

I wouldn't trust myself to attempt to use leverage currently, as I have a very busy life at times and can't always be 100% focused on the markets. It's why the B&H strategy tends to work better for me, it is more buy and hold and buy some more on the dips. Anyway I can't complain about my profits over the last three years, even with the recent 30% drop in silver I am still up over 200% on my physical silver and more on my stocks, which is much better than many.

 

Too true, Bob Chapman of all people had this to report earlier in the week;

 

 

The Financial Powers That Be Are In A Trap of Their Own Making

 

An excerpt from Bob Chapman's weekly publication.

 

May 11 2011: The new fiduciary, taxes to go higher next year, blatant crime in the financial world, shortside profits could be lost, a coming liquidity crisis, a coming chaos when leaving the market, a crime syndicate that runs our financial system, the Fed in control of the bond market, pain and stress continue in Europe.

 

In legislation just proposed, and I don't know by whom, nor do I have a number yet, the Dept of Labor has proposed a re-definition of who is a fiduciary, not under the Securities laws, but under ERISA, the law that governs tax advantaged retirement accounts, such as 401K and IRAs and it probably will include all retirement assets, we don't have a definite direction yet of what they intend to do but it is my guess they want to limit those investments only to US government debt. They may include some blue chips or funds, I don't know. They may allow other high-graded fixed income products. These DOL-ERISA rules override all SEC rules. We don't know the final form of the legislation, nor do we know whether it will be passed, but my guess it will be. The government desperately needs to get those retirement funds invested in government debt. I would seriously think about terminating 401ks and IRAs by transferring the assets – without commission – into a personal account it then becomes a taxable event. I also believe there is a good chance that taxes will be higher next year. There is also an outside chance that retirement assets could be frozen – such events would be negative on the general market because government would be directing brokerage houses to sell retirement assets. This is all in the planning stage, but it is very real...

[Pixel8r]

After that comment, it is clear that you havent spent two minutes looking at my actual trades here.

Why not spend some of the time you spend posting to look at what I am actually doing in these portfolios?

 

My trades have all been with a "long bias". On the fes occasions where I bought puts, it was only to protect a long position that I had established with calls. And all of the calls are deep-in-the-money calls, which are in effect: longs with limited risk of loss.

 

What you need to understand and ackowledge is:

Trading this way, in a disciplined fashion is actually LESS RISKY than buying physicals with all my cash. I have LESS money at risk than I would buying a similar sized straight long position, not more.

 

(You mentioned "losses" on S&P puts - but not in proper context):

Although I may have lost money on my puts in 2010, it was a controlled position, where I was only ever risking profits. In other words: My S&P puts cost a bit less than the profits I was making from trading Juniors, etc. So I finished the year with a net profit. As I said, I would have had a bigger profit without the puts. But I was prepared to take that risk, It was not a haphazard gamble,

The thing is I have never suggested that the thing to do is to buy physical with all your cash. I currently have about 50% of my funds in physical metal, which I treat as a cash position, and the other 50% in mining shares. I also completely understand that it is horses for courses and that you will probably do a lot better out of your strategy than I will. You are able to spend your whole time focusing on this, I am not and have a load of work to do taking photos for companies.

 

I just think that some understanding should be given to those trying to help others to protect their wealth in these times, rather than continually trying to prove your way is better. Your way is better if you have your whole life to spend understanding and trading the markets, most don't.

[drbubb]

NO EXTRA RISK / NO GEARING with options traded this way !

 

Actually the way I am trading here involves LESS RISK...

 

The "Beating Buy & Hold" thread shows in detail, step-by-step, how an experienced trader can re-enter as the drop is underway, using options to stay flexible, but with a clear LONG BIAS. And NOT USING any leverage (ie I have never been in a position where I could not exercise the options, using the cash in the account.) The options are merely used for risk control, not gearing. The options give me opportunities to take advantage of prices moves WITHOUT INCREASING GEARING. And I am never in a position where I will be forced to close positions because the market has moved against me, and gearing or margin changes force me to make a trade when I do not want to.

[drbubb]

Silver is not behaving well.

 

I tried to buy some June $37 Puts yesterday, but missed the order by a few pennies.

 

Watching for a chance to get them today, but Silver has opened weaker than Gold and Copper.

[drbubb]

Silver is not behaving well.

I tried to buy some June $37 Puts yesterday, but missed the order by a few pennies.

Watching for a chance to get them today, but Silver has opened weaker than Gold and Copper.

I see some important resistance near $34.50, and so put the order back in today ... SLV-chart

 

It just FILLED: June $37 Puts

 

= = = = = = = = = = =

Status Filled at $3.35

Symbol -SLV110618P37

Description PUT (SLV) ISHARES SILVER TR JUN 18 11 $37 (100 SHS)

Action Buy to Open Put

= = = = = = = = = = =

 

That will initiate a BUY: 20,000 options for both Portfolios : Alt.#1 and Alt.#2

 

If it runs higher by maybe $1 or more, I may look at selling out some of the SLV shares, and replacing them with deep-in-the-money Calls. It may depend on how much volume is in the market.

 

SLV seems to be getting alift from higher Gold, despits some decent strength in the Dollar.

 

== ==

(later):

SLV : USD ISHARES SILVER TRUST

Last [Tick] $34.1694[+] / Change $-0.0906 / % Change -0.26%

Bid $34.1600

Ask $34.1700

===

Open $33.97 Day High $34.5300 Day Low $33.38 / Volume 34,335,917

[drbubb]

This is from the Financial Independence thread, recently revived on Main...

 

I am taking the unconventional road...

 

... More recently I have turned my hand to trading futures and well, how much easier it is to trade them than options, it seems a much more natural way to trade. I always wanted to create my own "work" and that is what I am in the process of doing at the moment. Having developed my own indicators I am seeing some success with trading now, and I have engineered a situation whereby I work one week at the day job, and do reduced hours every other week, so I can trade full time during that other week, thanks to the 2.30pm open of the US markets. I didn't have a particularly large amount to start with and actually, for me, I believe that has given me a large advantage over others. I had to learn how to control my risk quickly and play to my strength, being able to think for myself in a creative manner. ...

Another of those Rare GEI-ers who trades options.

 

I just want to say this about options:

 

+ I tend to buy deep in-the-money Puts and Calls, and trade them like synthetic Long and Short positions, with "built in risk control."

 

Does this make sense? And if so, have you tried trading options that way?

[drbubb]

UPDATE: Friday Close: 20 May:

(Silver: $35.03 / SLV: $34.18 / DXY: $75.66 / CRB: $341.56 )

 

====== : B&H Portf. : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 :

SLV$34.18

Cash--- : - - - - -- $ 0 : - $4,174 K : - $2,997 K :

Silver.oz : -- 100,000 : -- 000,000 : -- 000,000 :

SLV.oz : --- 000,000 : -- 000,000 : -- 040,000 :

Value- : --- $3,503 K : - $0,000 K : - $1,367 K :

Opt.Oz+/--- 000,000 : -- 110,000 : -- 060,000 : calls

Opt.Oz -/--- 000,000 : -- 020,000 : -- 020,000 : puts

Note --- : --- - None - :op.AB,e1f1 : op.d2,e2f2 :

Opt.Val : --- - None - : - $0,779 K : - $0,498 K :

===== : ===========================

TotValue: -- $3,503 K : - $4,953K : - $4,862 K :

Vs B&H: --- 100.0% - : -- 141.4% : -- 138.8% :

======

SLV port.#2 - bot at $32.44/ 40,000 x $34.18 cls. = $1,367

Options:

A / jun.$30c - bot at $6.00 / 20,000 x $4.62close = $092k

B / jul. $29c - bot at $6.35 / 50,000 x $5.85close = $293k

E1/ jan $27c - bot at $8.00 / 40,000 x $8.67close = $324k

F1/ jun $37p - bot at $3.35 20,000 x $3.52close = $070k

===

D2/ oct.$30c - bot at $6.50 / 20,000 x $6.00close = $120k

E2/ jan $27c - bot at $7.70 / 40,000 x $8.67close = $308k

F2/ jun $37p - bot at $3.35 / 20,000 x $3.52close = $070k

 

RECORD

======

Record : B&H Portf. : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 : -SLV- : -DXY- /--CRB-- real.SLV

28 Apr.: --- $4,800 K : - $4,800K : - $4,800 K : $47.26 x73.12 / 3.7056 =# 9.326

06 May: --- $3,550 K : - $4,799K : - $4,800 K : $34.48 x74.84 / 3.3735 =# 7.650

13 May: --- $3,536 K : - $4,916K : - $4,802 K : $34.39 x75.71 / 3.3853 =# 7.692

20 May: --- $3,503 K : - $4,953K : - $4,862 K : $34.18 x75.66 / 3.4156 =# 7.571

[drbubb]

DOLLAR RALLY MAY HAVE FURTHER TO GO

 

... that's my view

 

But the risk of investing in Fiat Currencies is far from over...

 

John Rubino: Get Ready For Accelerating Devaluation of All Fiat Currencies

Friday, May 20, 2011,

 

"What is happening now is we are exporting our inflation to the rest of the world. We are forcing countries like Brazil and China to endure the pain that we should be enduring. Brazil’s interest rates are like 12% right now. China is doing something new every couple of days to scale back bank lending, spending domestically, and everything. They are countries where a big part of the population makes just a few dollars a day. Rising food and energy prices are devastating for these guys. They do not really control the global price of energy and food, yet they have to endure the pain of slowing their economies down and throwing people out of work. Have them have to spend more and more of their money on food and energy so we can keep on borrowing and growing. The government can keep on spending as much as they want to here.

 

Clearly that is unsustainable. At some point these countries are going to say “No, we want our currencies to depreciate, too. We want to be able to continue to export to you.” So what we will end up with is sort of like what happened in the depression. Everybody was trying to cut the value of their currencies at the same time. What that leads to obviously is global inflation instead of just localized inflation where a few countries are debasing their currencies. You have got everybody doing it at once. That is because the US, with the world’s reserve currency, basically controls this process. We have chosen to decrease the value of the dollar dramatically over the next few years. That is going to force the rest of the world to do the same thing or endure a rocketing economy or a rocketing currency value and recession. No elected politician can put up with that.

 

So what’s out there? Maybe after a mini recession or some kind of correction in the next year or two is another round -- an even bigger round -- of global inflation. Basically all the fiat currencies of the world start decreasing in value at an accelerating rate. So we basically destroy most of them. At some point out there, the whole concept of fiat currency, of governments in charge of their own monetary printing presses is going to be discredited."

 

So states John Rubino, proprietor of DollarCollapse.com.

[G0ldfinger]

+ I tend to buy deep in-the-money Puts and Calls, and trade them like synthetic Long and Short positions, with "built in risk control."

 

Does this make sense? And if so, have you tried trading options that way?

My oil hedge works like this. Some of the options in it are almost like futures. Others are still far out of the money. Altogether, I created an exponential payoff function in case inflation kicks in for good before 2016. It is a buy & hold position with very limited downside risk.

As for silver, I just hold the physical bullion, and since a few days ago a few mining shares.

[drbubb]

My oil hedge works like this. Some of the options in it are almost like futures. Others are still far out of the money. Altogether, I created an exponential payoff function in case inflation kicks in for good before 2016. It is a buy & hold position with very limited downside risk.

As for silver, I just hold the physical bullion, and since a few days ago a few mining shares.

Exactly.

This is what I have been talking about - using options to limit price exposure whilst "controlling" the long position you want.

 

Have you thought about the Cash yoo would need to EXERCISE the options?

 

Are you holding it aside as cash, or have you invested it elsewhere?

[G0ldfinger]

Exactly.

This is what I have been talking about - using options to limit price exposure whilst "controlling" the long position you want.

 

Have you thought about the Cash yoo would need to EXERCISE the options?

 

Are you holding it aside as cash, or have you invested it elsewhere?

No, I am truly levered to oil. I want to be.

[drbubb]

MORE PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENTS - in case SLV is near a short term high.

 

If it runs higher by maybe $1 or more, I may look at selling out some of the SLV shares, and replacing them with deep-in-the-money Calls. It may depend on how much volume is in the market.

 

SLV seems to be getting alift from higher Gold, despits some decent strength in the Dollar.

Sold June $30 calls, as SLV rallies to $36.80 : SLV-chart

= = = = = = = = = = = =

Status Filled at $6.80

Symbol -SLV110618C30

Description CALL (SLV) ISHARES SILVER TR JUN 18 11 $30

Action Sell to Close Call

Order Type Limit at $6.80

= = = = = = = = = = = =

 

Sold 10,000 at small profit in Alt.Port#1

 

Later, in Alt.Port#2:

 

Sold 20,000 SLV at $36.93, and

 

BOT: 20,000 July $30 SLV Calls at $7.25:

 

Price / July $30calls: %7.25 +0.95 / bid.offer: 7.20-7.30

[lyb]

Dr Bubb

 

Another excellent call. Why don't you stick on silver ?

[drbubb]

Dr Bubb

Another excellent call. Why don't you stick on silver ?

Silver has moved into a Traders market, where my chart techniques seem to work well (knock on wood.)

 

I am doing most of these trades in a real account, and making some nice returns, so I am happy that the "challenge" that was part of starting this thread was something I took on, even if it was motivated by a sort of "dare", inspired by people's comments here that B&H was the only sensible way to approach precious metals investing.

 

My longer term challenge, when we move out of the trading range, will be to "stay on the horse" if and when it moves out of the trading range.

 

I may have missed a trading opportunity on the dip yesterday, because I found it impossible to be in front of the screen in trading hours.

 

I am thinking about adding some silver shares to the portfolio.

[lyb]

Silver has moved into a Traders market, where my chart techniques seem to work well (knock on wood.)

 

I am doing most of these trades in a real account, and making some nice returns, so I am happy that the "challenge" that was part of starting this thread was something I took on, even if it was motivated by a sort of "dare", inspired by people's comments here that B&H was the only sensible way to approach precious metals investing.

 

My longer term challenge, when we move out of the trading range, will be to "stay on the horse" if and when it moves out of the trading range.

 

I may have missed a trading opportunity on the dip yesterday, because I found it impossible to be in front of the screen in trading hours.

 

I am thinking about adding some silver shares to the portfolio.

 

You sold 20000 SLV shares and the next day you say you could have bought on a dip.

You are trying to make a profit from short term price fluctuations. In this case, at the

end of this day you could have sold again. It is desirable to distinguish

between short and longer term highs or lows. In my opinion, it is only worth trading on the basis

of longer term calls (e.g. 1-2 months), as commissions eat into the profit.

[drbubb]

You sold 20000 SLV shares and the next day you say you could have bought on a dip.

You are trying to make a profit from short term price fluctuations. In this case, at the

end of this day you could have sold again. It is desirable to distinguish

between short and longer term highs or lows. In my opinion, it is only worth trading on the basis

of longer term calls (e.g. 1-2 months), as commissions eat into the profit.

Fair point.

 

As you will note, I am not generally trading very term short swings, such as $1-2. Had I done a trade, it would have simply been a "precautionary" purchase of some cheap June calls to prepare for a possible breakout surge.

 

Normally, I will want to see a minimum move of $3-4 before firing off another trade. And even then, I will see to do a trade which modifies my core position in a way that removes risk, or gives me more flexibility.

 

As an example: (in Alt.Port.#2)

 

+ I sold 20,000 SLV shares at $36.93 (vs $32.44 cost), taking a profit of $4.47 per ounce,

+ I replaced that position with a $30 July Call on 20,000 shares, costing $7.25 per ounce

 

With that switch, I stay long- leaning on the Call rather than those 20,000 SLV shares I sold. But if Silver now falls back to $30 or lower, I have a limited price risk. This extra insurance only costs me $0.32 per ounce (being the difference between the $7.25 call price plus the exercise price and where I sold the SLV shares. It seems like cheap insurance for the period into the normal seasonal low.)

 

I do still think that the potential for a slide to $30 or lower is real. But the action of the last few days shows that Silver is more resilient than I thought it would be 1-2 weeks ago. In fact, the key resistance may be just overhead at/near Wednesday's high of about SLV-$37. A breakout through there could continue to $40 and higher.

 

/See: SLV-chart

[drbubb]

I am thinking about adding some silver shares to the portfolio.

I will put up to 1/3 of the Portfolios into Silver & Gold shares

 

About 10% will go into a Junior, Argentex (ATX.v), thru a placement at $1.15

[Plastic Elastic]

I will put up to 1/3 of the Portfolios into Silver & Gold shares

 

About 10% will go into a Junior, Argentex (ATX.v), thru a placement at $1.15

 

I have little doubt that you will outperform a buy and hold strategy in silver over the mid- to long-term but I am also getting the feeling that both the structure and the management of your portfolio is now getting somewhat complicated and elaborate. I am certainly losing track already

 

(For the record: I sold a lot of my paper silver (bought between $10 and $18) at $24 (unlucky!), $46 and $48 (both lucky!) and shifted some of the proceedings into gold stocks and gold. Maybe I'll buy back into silver, maybe not but I certainly don't like how it behaves with long spells of doing nothing and then doing rollercoasters of steep ascents followed by nauseating corrections. Not my cup of tea I'm afraid.)

[drbubb]

(includes yesterday's sale of the remaining June Call position:

Sold : A/ Jun.$30 calls at $7.65 x20k in AP#1):

 

UPDATE: Tuesday Close: 31 May:

/note: I was traveling 27 May/

(Prices: Silver: $38.48 / SLV: $37.60 / DXY: $74.50 / CRB: $350.06 )

(Fri./27 May : Silver $38 / SLV: $37.03 / DXY: $74.76 / CRB: $346.27 )

 

====== : B&H Portf. : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 :

SLV$37.60

Cash--- : - - - - -- $ 0 : - $4,327 K : - $3,591 K :

Silver.oz : -- 100,000 : -- 000,000 : -- 000,000 :

SLV.oz : --- 000,000 : -- 000,000 : -- 020,000 :

Value- : --- $3,848 K : - $0,000 K : - $0,752 K :

Opt.Oz+/--- 000,000 : -- 090,000 : -- 080,000 : calls

Opt.Oz -/--- 000,000 : -- 020,000 : -- 020,000 : puts

Note --- : --- - None - :op.B1,e1f1 :op.B2d2,e2f2 :

Opt.Val : --- - None - : - $0.911 K : - $0,820 K :

===== : ===========================

TotValue: -- $3,848 K : - $5,238K : - $5,163 K :

Vs B&H: --- 100.0% - : -- 136.1% : -- 134.2% :

======

SLV port.#2 - bot at $32.44/ 20,000 x $37.60 cls. = $752k

Options:

B1/ jul. $29c - bot at $6.35 / 50,000 x $8.40close = $420k

E1/ jan $27c - bot at $8.00 / 40,000 x $11.67close = $467k

F1/ jun $37p - bot at $3.35 20,000 x $1.20close = $024k

===

B2/ jul. $30c - bot at $7.25 / 20,000 x $7.80close = $156k

D2/ oct.$30c - bot at $6.50 / 20,000 x $8.65close = $173k

E2/ jan $27c - bot at $7.70 / 40,000 x $11.67close = $467k

F2/ jun $37p - bot at $3.35 / 20,000 x $1.20close = $024k

 

RECORD

======

Record : B&H Portf. : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 : Average : -Ratio- : -SLV- : -DXY- /--CRB-- real.SLV

28 Apr.: --- $4,800 K : - $4,800K : - $4,800 K : $4,800K : 100.0% : $47.26 x73.12 / 3.7056 =# 9.326

06 May: --- $3,550 K : - $4,799K : - $4,800 K : $4,799K : 135.2% : $34.48 x74.84 / 3.3735 =# 7.650

13 May: --- $3,536 K : - $4,916K : - $4,802 K : $4,859K : 137.4% : $34.39 x75.71 / 3.3853 =# 7.692

20 May: --- $3,503 K : - $4,953K : - $4,862 K : $4,908K : 140.1% : $34.18 x75.66 / 3.4156 =# 7.571

27 May.est $3,800 K : - $5,180K : - $5,110 K : $5,145K : 135.4% : $37.03 x74.76 / 3.4627 =# 7.995

31 May: --- $3,848 K : - $5,238K : - $5,163 K : $5,200K : 135.1% : $37.60 x74.50 / 3.5006 =# 8.002

=====

UPDATE: Tuesday Close: 31 May: (note: was traveling 27 May)

(Silver: $38.48 / SLV: $37.60 / DXY: $74.50 / CRB: $350.06 )

(Fri./27 May : Silver $38 / SLV: $37.03 / DXY: $74.76 / CRB: $346.27 )

 

Note: I will add the Argentex (ATX.v) shares, when placement is confirmed*.

Without that, my AP#1 is only 90,000 shares long SLV (thru Calls), and I am less exposed to the upside in Silver than the B&H portfolio. I will add in an Argentex position costing approx. 10,000 SLV - ie about $370k, at $1.15 per ATX shares that is: 321,000 shares - I will use 300,000. I would hope to see this position outperform 10,000 shares in SLV.

 

== ==

 

*If ATX.v falls to $1.10 or lower, I may buy shares in the market rather than taking up PP shares at $1.15. In fact, I have already bought some ATX shares at $1.05.

[drbubb]

I have little doubt that you will outperform a buy and hold strategy in silver over the mid- to long-term but I am also getting the feeling that both the structure and the management of your portfolio is now getting somewhat complicated and elaborate. I am certainly losing track already

I am trading a little more frequently than "I need to" in these portfolios, in order to highlight the fact that there are opportunities almost every week.

 

WATCH FOR the big shifts - those are are ones where I do multiple trades, because I foresee a need to TRANSFORM the portfolio.

 

But big shifts will not always happen at turns, because they are often not easy to call. Sometimes, I may ease into an expected market shift through small changes... as a I have been doing recently near SLV-$37.

 

CHART : SLV-chart

EXAMPLE:

The present market with SLV approaching $38, looks like a good selling point, since that is the area where the first post-crash rally peaked. But I may do little here, since I have already done some shifts (buying $37 puts, swapping from SLV into calls) that already puts me in a position to benefit from a slide in SLV, if we see one.

 

Having said that, as you will see in the AP#1, I sold the remaining June $30 calls out at $7.65.

 

I may also sell the 20,000 SLV shares in AP#2, and replace them with calls, because SLV Options volatilities have come down a long way, and I want to take some advantage from that.

[drbubb]

Sometimes, I may ease into an expected market shift through small changes... as a I have been doing recently near SLV-$37.

 

CHART : SLV-chart

EXAMPLE:

The present market with SLV approaching $38, looks like a good selling point, since that is the area where the first post-crash rally peaked. But I may do little here, since I have already done some shifts (buying $37 puts, swapping from SLV into calls) that already puts me in a position to benefit from a slide in SLV, if we see one.

SLV / USDISHARES SILVER TRUST - Big drop

Last [Tick] $35.75[+]

Change $-1.85

% Change -4.92%

 

By only pennies, I missed buying Puts on GLD when it was near its High of the Day, and SLV was already negative.

 

 

Oddly, Gold was levitating yesterday while SPY was down, and CU and SLV were down too.

 

Perhaps China was topping up?

(I actually said that to my broker last night as we noticed how lonely Gold was.)

[drbubb]

I recently spoke of "harvesting" some profits in these portfolios. If you look at the detail of what I am doing in the prtfolios, you will see that there are ways of doing so without losing a strong Long bias.

 

If we get another significant pullback into July or so, you may see the value of AP#1 and AP#2 once again sprint ahead of B&H.

Gold seems to have lost its ability to levitate, and is now following other markets lower - and so Silver & Cu.

 

SPX : 1,308.71 -5.84 / % Change -0.44%

GLD : $148.751 $-1.159 / % Change -0.77%

SLV : $35.09 $-0.66 / % Change -1.85%

CU =: $41.39 $-0.185 / % Change -0.45%

 

I now target a price below $33 for my next trades on SLV. That may be subject to change

[romans holiday]

Gold seems to have lost its ability to levitate, and is now following other markets lower - and so Silver & Cu.

 

SPX : 1,308.71 -5.84 / % Change -0.44%

GLD : $148.751 $-1.159 / % Change -0.77%

SLV : $35.09 $-0.66 / % Change -1.85%

CU =: $41.39 $-0.185 / % Change -0.45%

 

I now target a price below $33 for my next trades on SLV. That may be subject to change

In regard to looking for the silver bottom, surely you have to give it more time. I think the odds are good that silver will track sideways within a range before bottoming in the 20s some time in the next few months.

 

Gold also needs to consolidate for a bit around 1500. A gold dip below 1500 might be the time to load up on silver..... for those that are trading the medium/ longer term.

 

[drbubb]

In regard to looking for the silver bottom, surely you have to give it more time. I think the odds are good that silver will track sideways within a range before bottoming in the 20s some time in the next few months.

My "ideal target" for Silver is $26 - as I have mentioned before.

 

But I will not wait for that before doing my next trades, since it may not fall that far. But using options as my principle means of going long, I will be in a position to buy heavily if Silver eventually gets that low.

 

If anyone wants me to explain this statement, just ask. For some, it may be obvious that I will have that flexibility, if you look at the options I am now holding.

 

Remember, these portfolios have an intentional "Long bias", and my principle objective is to beat Buy & Hold - not to catch the ultimate low. I cannot take the chance of being entirely out of the market, unless we see another obvious parabolic move up.

[romans holiday]

My "ideal target" for Silver is $26 - as I have mentioned before.

 

But I will not wait for that before doing my next trades, since it may not fall that far. But using options as my principle means of going long, I will be in a position to buy heavily if Silver eventually gets that low.

 

If anyone wants me to explain this statement, just ask. For some, it may be obvious that I will have that flexibility, if you look at the options I am now holding.

 

Remember, these portfolios have an intentional "Long bias", and my principle objective is to beat Buy & Hold - not to catch the ultimate low. I cannot take the chance of being entirely out of the market, unless we see another obvious parabolic move up.

OK, got it. I guess I have the "luxury" of waiting it out for a better correction since I've been long silver [more gold] for a good few years. Though I don't trade core bullion, I don't count myself a "purist". Instead, not being a hyper-inflationist, I look to trade dollars against the volatility in silver [in order to increase dollars].... as a hedge against that core position. If I don't see the mid 20s, no harm done...most investors are happy with a non-performing hedge.