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Beating Buy and Hold (thru disciplined speculation)


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I, personally, have just started (a few months worth) looking into TA. That said, if I didn't have GEI (ie. you) to guide me, I would have little clue of where prices are going to go, and what are the chances of what. Without that primordial knowledge, B&H is, so far, the only strategy that worked for me.

Wouldn't you agree, DrBubb, that a deep understanding of market dynamics (including decent TA skills) are essential? Surely that means beating B&H is low risk for a seasoned trader, but actually quite high risk for a regular individual?

It helps, but you can learn, if you have the time.

 

My partner has decided to learn something about trading, so she can be independent, and we can travel more. She is taking her learning very seriously, working long hours at it, staying up late to watch US markets.

 

But she is trading only on paper so far. She paid a ot of money for a four day course (some of the cost I lent here, to be made back from profits, only if and when she makes them.) She is now making money overall on her paper trades, but admits that mots of the good ideas came from me, and from our friend here, a hedge fund manager. She was thrill last week when one of her own ideas, suddenly made a nice profit when the price dropped on an earnings announcement, and the Straddle she bought more than doubled in value over night.

 

Paper trading, is a good way to learn, but it does take time. She keeps a journal, and tracks her trades, much as I am doing here. Actually, I am learning what works, and doesnt, from keeping this thread. I am doing many of the trades in my own account, but not all. And I usually trade in a small size. Two things that have not worked so well: Trading ZSL options, rather than SLV options. And buying Argentex (ATX.v), which has been a poor performer.

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Would trading beat the buy and hold gold bulls, if gold was revalued at $44,000/t.oz?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAPM7syIcts

I think it will.

I intend to take the Silver-Core of AP#2 to 10,000 oz on the next down-dip, and trade only with the profits.

That would insure an eternal advantage.

 

Although I havent measured it, I have also saved on storage costs

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It helps, but you can learn, if you have the time.

 

My partner has decided to learn something about trading, so she can be independent, and we can travel more. She is taking her learning very seriously, working long hours at it, staying up late to watch US markets.

 

But she is trading only on paper so far. She paid a ot of money for a four day course (some of the cost I lent here, to be made back from profits, only if and when she makes them.) She is now making money overall on her paper trades, but admits that mots of the good ideas came from me, and from our friend here, a hedge fund manager. She was thrill last week when one of her own ideas, suddenly made a nice profit when the price dropped on an earnings announcement, and the Straddle she bought more than doubled in value over night.

 

Paper trading, is a good way to learn, but it does take time. She keeps a journal, and tracks her trades, much as I am doing here. Actually, I am learning what works, and doesnt, from keeping this thread. I am doing many of the trades in my own account, but not all. And I usually trade in a small size. Two things that have not worked so well: Trading ZSL options, rather than SLV options. And buying Argentex (ATX.v), which has been a poor performer.

 

Db, good luck to your partner I hope she makes it. When you where working in the city/large banks what return on account would a reasonably average futures trader be making year in year out? Secondly what would you consider a private competent sole futures trader could expect to return on an idividual account year in year out? Do you actually personally know people who are discretionary trading futures on their own account day in day out and making a good living/percentage from it?

 

Regards

 

ML

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Db, good luck to your partner I hope she makes it. When you where working in the city/large banks what return on account would a reasonably average futures trader be making year in year out? Secondly what would you consider a private competent sole futures trader could expect to return on an idividual account year in year out? Do you actually personally know people who are discretionary trading futures on their own account day in day out and making a good living/percentage from it?

Regards, ML

Returns are all over the map.

And it is tough to get good data. Privates: I think a majority lose money, until they "get it."

 

Making a living by trading?

 

guy-thomas-free-capital-at-last-a-true-to-life-account-of-uk-investors.jpg

Sure. I know many that do that. (I am one. Have you read FREE CAPITAL* ? It can be done.)

I think those who live off their trading profits have some sort of discipline that suits

their own personality, and gets them to stop following the ideas they hear on mainstream media.

 

=== ===

 

*Excerpt:

Most of the investors interviewed by the author are only identified using pseudonyms but some profiles will be familiar to users of this site (wink, wink); they apparently also include some of the most prolific posters on bulletinboards like TMF & ADVFN. The divergence in background is striking. Some have several academic degrees or strong City backgrounds; others left school with few qualifications and are entirely self-taught as investors. They also have very different styles. Some invest most of their money in a small number of shares and hold them for years at a time; others make dozens of trades every day, and hold them for at most a few hours. Some are inveterate networkers, who spend their day talking to managers at companies in which they invest; for others a share is just a symbol on a screen.

 

While no approach emerges as clearly superior to the others, interestingly, Guy Thomas classifies eight of the twelve investors as ‘surveyors’ – who start bottom-up with the company, its balance sheet and its prospects – while only two are ‘geographers’ – i.e. top down thinkers starting from the overall investment landscape. In most cases, he indicates that there were clear links between the investor’s personality or career background and the successful investment approach he had developed. This suggests that finding an approach which matches your personality and skills is probably more productive than looking for one true Holy Grail.

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EWMS is now Ultra-short on Silver

 

QUOTE

FYI, adding one new position to the beta 2.0 portfolio today.

It is ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) at the closing price of $11.81.

To find out more about the portfolio positions - click here to view all open positions and/or click here to view all closed positions.

If you are having any difficulty accessing our reports, please contact support@elliottwavemarketservice.com for assistance.

Yours faithfully,

 

Paul Thomason .. Editor, Elliott Wave Market Service

UNQUOTE

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(I need to post this here too.)

 

IS GOLD TOO EXPENSIVE ?

 

Maybe. Look at this comparison with Silver/ SLV ... update

 

gldnov11.gif

 

Silver often leads Gold, and has left behind a big gap after the last drop.

 

(Took some profits on a part of my GLD position today after seeing this.)

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These expire tomorrow, so I had to sell them,

and today's Silver price dip came in the nick of time:

 

Sell to Close Call / Contracts of -ZSL111119C11

Details Filled at $1.65

 

I think SLV could be headed to $30 or lower - but I do not have

time to wait, since expiry is tomorrow

 

(in edit):

SLV now is: Last $31.28

Change $-1.54

% Change -4.69%

 

hmm. Maybe it will hit $30.00 tomorrow afterall

 

GLD drop is less so far:

Last [Tick] $168.38

Change $-3.13

% Change -1.82%

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Some prefer to stay blind, sprinkling ridicule on what they do not grok

 

EDIT: I want to add, even more annyoing is that everyone (FSN, KWN, or e.g. DrBubb) gives too much time and too much space to the astrologers of our time: technicians. Why would I want to hear what Louise Yamada's crystal ball has to say, when I could instead listen to someone who really knows what's going on, like Janet Tavakoli.

LOL

It is a shame you do not understand how to use charts, and prefer to wallow in your own personal lack of knowledge.

 

With the sources that you do use, you came up with this little gem a few days ago:

I have a feeling like next week we'll go through $1,800 and never ever look back again. :)

 

I tried to warn you, as anyone reading the Gold thread will know.

 

At the same time as the above enthusiasm was posted, it was obvious the upmove in Silver and Gold was technically weak. Instead of learning something from your forecasting miscue, you ridicule those who can do better. I have to say your comment contains at least a whiff of arrogance : "astrologers of our time" indeed. More like: People who are open-minded enough to embrace techniques before the masses.

 

Why not learn from results that there's more to Heaven and Earth than yours-and-ours received wisdom can contemplate?

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Db, good luck to your partner I hope she makes it. When you where working in the city/large banks what return on account would a reasonably average futures trader be making year in year out? Secondly what would you consider a private competent sole futures trader could expect to return on an idividual account year in year out? Do you actually personally know people who are discretionary trading futures on their own account day in day out and making a good living/percentage from it?

 

Regards

 

ML

 

Perhaps I need to be more specific in the question?

 

Sole private traders of futures accounts failure rate 95% agreed?

 

5% who make it 4% blackbox coded systems leaves 1% of discretionary agreed? :(

 

It is a true art to be a discretionay T/A trader thats why the returns are so high yet the odds are so against! B)

 

Finally fantasy accounts don't cut it! :angry:

 

Please put up a real account warts and all this would be very interesting to follow!

 

 

Regards

 

ML

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5% who make it 4% blackbox coded systems leaves 1% of discretionary agreed? :(

It is a true art to be a discretionay T/A trader thats why the returns are so high yet the odds are so against! B)

Finally fantasy accounts don't cut it! :angry:

Please put up a real account warts and all this would be very interesting to follow!

Regards ML

Where'd you get that from: "5% who make it 4% blackbox coded systems"

I certainly think that is nonsense.

 

Go get hold of Free Capital (the book) and learn more about real traders who did well trading real money.

 

BTW, you fail to consider those people who lost money for some years (were part of the 90-95% who lose), and then later learned how to make money with some consistency. I was one of those, and I share my knowledge and tips here freely - That's a pretty good deal, don't you think?

 

I invite you to "shadow" my trades here, with paper trades or real money, as you wish. And then you will learn how much work is involved, and how easy or ho difficult it would be to make money with the information that I am providing here.

 

I reckon someone could easily match my performance, or better it, by observing what I post here, and then trading a little later at a better price. But you would have to be quick to follow me on some of the trades. Many of the trades here are real, like the ZSL trade of yesterday. But no one would be willing to put all their real trades for free on a system like this - because it is too much damned work!

 

I ran a real portfolio of all real trades (and made decent returns) here on the GEI Trading thread, and it became "too much work" very quickly - in relation to the useful feedback I was getting.

 

Do it yourself before your criticise, and then you might get some respect here.

 

*BTW my partner has made $9,000 over 3 weeks on here (smallish) paper trades. She thanks me for some help, but has come up with many profitable trades on her own, using various methods she has learned. She starts real trading with real money, today or monday.

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PRICE: 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1 10/21'1 10/14'1 : 10/7/11 9/30/11

SLV--: $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 : $30.48 : $31.34 : $30.23 : $28.91 :

Chg.- : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 : -$0.86 : +$1.11 : +$1.32 : -$1.07 :

Silver : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 : $31.36 : $32.17 : $31.23 : $29.98 :

Prem. : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 : +$0.88 : +$0.83 : +$1.00 : +$1.07 :

ZSL-- : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 : $14.24 : $13.66 : $14.83 : $17.11 :

$42-X : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 : $27.76 : $28.34 : $27.17 : $24.89 :

ZX/slv : 92.93% : 91.35% : 91.51% : 90.31% : 91.08%: 90.42% : 89.88%: 86.09%:

====

DXY--- : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 : 76.276 : 76.607 : 78.753: 78.796 :

UUP---: $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 : $21.54 : $21.65 : 22.270 : 22.305 :

CRB--- : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 : 311.08 : 317.18 : 303.52 : 298.15 :

DBA---: $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 : $30.76 : $31.18 : $29.89 :

Rsilver : : 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 : 7.569 : 7.848 : 7.640 : : 7.776 : :

===

Ap$23c: $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 : $9.62 : $8.97 / $8.35 /

Ap$30c: $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 : $7.27 : $6.77 : $5.97 :

Ja.$28c: $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 : $4.15 :

Ja.$30c: $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

Ja.$35c: $2.09 : $2.09 : $2.09 :: $2.71 : $1.46 : $1.77 : $1.89 : $1.66 :

ATX.v--: $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 : $0.67 : $0.68 : $0.61 : $0.75

DBA$30c $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 : $2.17 : $1.52 : $1.42 : $1.67

SlwJ$25c $7.90 : 11.65 : 11.62 :: 11.47 : $6.37 / $5.50 /

SlwJ$32c $3.02 : $5.85 : $6.00 :: $5.82 / $3.75 /

ZslNv$11c $1.81 : $0.55 $1.20 :: $1.00 / $1.90 /

GldD$134 33.87 : 40.12 : 37.05 :: 35.95 / 24.0 /

hk2840g- 1308. : 1336. : 1331. / 1,000 / $7.77

GLD-ny$ 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

 

Trades This Week:

SOLD ZSL Nov.$11c at $1.60 x 2,000 shares = (+$3,200 : +AP#1)

Trades Last Week:

SOLD SLV-etf at $34.30 x 1,000 shares = (+$34,300 : +AP#2)

BOT SLV-Apr.$30calls at $6.70 x 1,000 = (- $6,700 : -AP#2)

BOT SLV-Apr.$30calls at $6.15 x 1,000 = (- $6,150 : -AP#2)

SOLD HK-2840 (HK's version of GLD) at HK$1338 x 150 (+$25,830 : +AP#1) at $7.77

SOLD SLV-etf at $33.71 x 1,000 shares = (+$33,710 : +AP#2)

==========

Cash: start.Wk / EndofWk== / Core-start / End / ==Chg.Cash

(at last week)

AP1: $363,243 / $366,443 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: +$3,200

AP2: $274,595 / $274,595 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: +$0

 

History: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

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An honest broker tells the truth and ceases trading due to the fact that the market is no longer safe for clients.

BCM HAS CEASED OPERATIONS (PART 1)

 

POSTED BY ANN BARNHARDT - NOVEMBER 17, AD 2011 10:27 AM MST

 

Dear Clients, Industry Colleagues and Friends of Barnhardt Capital Management,

 

It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. After six years of operating as an independent introducing brokerage, and eight years of employment as a broker before that, I found myself, this morning, for the first time since I was 20 years old, watching the futures and options markets open not as a participant, but as a mere spectator.

 

The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy.

 

....

 

I have learned over the last week that MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg. There is massive industry-wide exposure to European sovereign junk debt. While other firms may not be as heavily leveraged as Corzine had MFG leveraged, and it is now thought that MFG's leverage may have been in excess of 100:1, they are still suicidally leveraged and will likely stand massive, unmeetable collateral calls in the coming days and weeks as Europe inevitably collapses. I now suspect that the reason the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did not immediately step in to backstop the MFG implosion was because they knew and know that if they backstopped MFG, they would then be expected to backstop all of the other firms in the system when the failures began to cascade – and there simply isn't that much money in the entire system. In short, the problem is a SYSTEMIC problem, not merely isolated to one firm.

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OUTPERFORMANCE HIGH TIES RECORD HIGH (over $177,500), and the Ratio improved too.

 

RECORD

(B&H Silver 10,000 oz.)

Record :: B&H Portf : Alt.Port #1 : Alt.Port #2 : Average : -Ratio- : -SLV- : -DXY- /--CRB-- real.SLV

 

01 July: --- $337.0 K : - $479.2K : - $465.2 K : $472.2K : 140.1% : $33.00 x74.36 / 3.3671 =# 7.288

08 July: --- $365.4 K : - $508.5K : - $498.1 K : $503.3K : 137.8% : $35.75 x75.08 / 3.4355 =# 7.813

15 July: --- $390.7 K : - $535.8K : - $532.8 K : $534.3K : 136.8% : $38.24 x75.13 / 3.4650 =# 8.291

22 July: --- $401.0 K : - $541.4K : - $539.8 K : $540.6K : 134.8% : $39.07 x74.14 / 3.4793 =# 8.325

29 July: --- $398.9 K : - $539.7K : - $537.1 K : $538.4K : 135.0% : $38.83 x73.75 / 3.4208 =# 8.371

05 Aug: --- $383.3 K : - $534.4K : - $538.9 K : $536.6K : 140.1% : $37.61 x74.54 / 3.2608 =# 8.597

12 Aug: --- $390.7 K : - $536.7K : - $541.9 K : $539.3K : 138.0% : $38.12 x74.56 / 3.2653 =# 8.704

19 Aug: --- $429.3 K : - $558.6K : - $570.4 K : $564.5K : 131.5% : $41.68 x74.24 / 3.2947 =# 9.392

26 Aug: --- $417.2 K : - $546.5K : - $558.1 K : $552.3K : 132.4% : $40.41 x73.81 / 3.3525 =# 8.897

02 Sep: --- $432.6 K : - $560.6K : - $572.8 K : $566.7K : 131.0% : $42.18 x75.25 / 3.3806 =# 9.389

09 Sep: --- $414.3 K : - $544.9K : - $557.2 K : $551.1K : 133.0% : $40.52 x77.20 / 3.3424 =# 9.019

16 Sep: --- $406.7 K : - $539.8K : - $552.5 K : $546.2K : 134.3% : $39.39 x76.64 / 3.2955 =# 9.161

23 Sep: --- $310.8 K : - $485.2K : - $479.3 K : $482.3K : 155.2% : $29.98 x78.30 / 3.0187 =# 7.776

30 Sep: --- $299.8 K : - $478.6K : - $473.4 K : $476.0K : 158.8% : $28.91 x78.80 / 2.9815 =# 7.640

07 Oct: --- $312.3 K : - $489.2K : - $486.4 K : $487.8K : 156.2% : $30.23 x78.75 / 3.0352 =# 7.99

14 Oct: --- $321.7 K : - $495.7K : - $495.9 K : $495.8K : 154.1% : $31.34 x76.61 / 3.1718 =# 7.57

21 Oct: --- $353.7 K : - $494.6K : - $488.2 K : $491.4K : 156.7% : $30.48 x76.28 / 3.1108 =# 7.47

28 Oct: --- $353.7 K : - $532.4K : - $524.7 K : $528.5K : 149.4% : $34.27 x75.09 / 3.2307 =# 7.97

04 Nov: --- $341.5 K : - $521.7K : - $513.2 K : $517.5K : 151.5% : $33.20 x76.91 / 3.2044 =# 7.97

11 Nov: --- $346.7 K : - $522.9K : - $517.2 K : $520.0K : 150.0% : $33.74 x76.91 / 3.2020 =# 8.10

18 Nov: --- $322.8 K : - $505.2K : - $495.4 K : $500.3K : 155.0% : $31.41 x78.02 / 3.1221 =# 7.85

Vs B&H: -- 100.0% - : - 156.51% : - 153.47% : +154.99%

 

At 18 Nov., the average of the two Alt. Portfolios was $177,511 (prev.$173,341) ahead of Buy&Hold.

 

Versus $177,773 ahead at 21 Oct., when Silver had fallen to $31.36. Friday was $31.41.

 

For more detail / see spreadsheet : http://tinyurl.com/beatingBH

 

I can summarise my Silver holdings this way:

CORE+

==== PhysAG : SLV- : CORE : InThe$ : OutOf$ : Total

AP#1 : 4,000 : 1,000 :: 5,000 :: 3,000 : 2,000 : 10,000

AP#2 : 6,000 : 0,000 :: 6,000 :: 4,000 : 0,000 : 10,000

 

Notes:

CORE is Physical Silver plus SLV shares

InThe$ : In the money SLV calls, with strikes below Friday's SLV closing

OutOf$ : SLV calls with strikes above the SLV closing price

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

LONGER TERM THINKING:

If SLV hits my target of $28-29, then I shall add to the CORE Silver longs position. Once I do so, if Silver moves back up, I can stay ahead of the B&H portfolio. The continued strong cash position (averaging over $300,000) gives me the flexibility to add more Silver or SLV calls whenever I like. Adding to Core or InThe$ holdings of the AP#1 is something I want to do before Christmas, because I have 2,000 Jan.$35 calls, and these will expire in January, leaving me with under 10,000 long if Silver shoots uo after the expiry.

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Looking Good.

 

I have a few questions:

 

1// With a Core of 5,000 (against 10,000 in B&H), aren't you in danger of Silver prices running away?

 

2// Your average value of the two AP's is just over $500,000, so if you have sold at $50 and sat in cash until now, wouldn't you simply be in the same place? (All that work with nothing to show?)

 

3// Why doesn't your portfolio seem to suffer time decay? I thought options lost time value over time?

 

4// What does "Real SLV" mean? Is it really meaningful?

 

 

 

Pixel8r is getting boring.

Why is he posting comments like that on a site designed for traders?

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Eric Sprott talks to James Turk in Munich - James Turk: gold price will go above $11,000

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzsER-T-QPU&feature=player_embedded

Be careful.

Sprott may be right, but he is also "talking his own book."

 

A hedge fund manager who has done very well said to me on Friday:

"Sprott should be embarrassed about ramping silver, talking about a rise to $100,

when it was approaching $50. If I had been so wrong as that, I would be losing

my clients now."

 

Instead, he is up about 60% for the year, beating Mr Sprott by some miles.

 

Why does Eric get so much good press, when he has cost those who bought Silver near $50,

so much money?

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Looking Good.

 

I have a few questions:

 

1// With a Core of 5,000 (against 10,000 in B&H), aren't you in danger of Silver prices running away?

 

2// Your average value of the two AP's is just over $500,000, so if you have sold at $50 and sat in cash until now, wouldn't you simply be in the same place? (All that work with nothing to show?)

 

3// Why doesn't your portfolio seem to suffer time decay? I thought options lost time value over time?

 

4// What does "Real SLV" mean? Is it really meaningful?

1)

My calls at various strikes bring me up to "owning the upside" on 10,000 ounces.

But if prices drop back further, I will add to my position.

 

2)

True enough.

If I had been totally certain prices would be this low now, I could have sold Silver at $50,

sat back (on my $500,000) and done nothing until now. But there was no way to know this for

certain. AND IMPORTANTLY, I wanted to show how one could trade Silver conservatively without

having a crystal ball to know exact future price points.

 

In fact, in my own account, I have beat both AP portfolios, by buying Silver at near $30, and

then selling out everything near or above $40. In fact, I have not yet re-entered the Silver

trade in any major way - though I have successfully scalped some price moves. I am awaiting

a future chance to "load up the truck" at or below $30.

 

3)

I have suffered time decay on my options positions, but the little trades I do around my core

positions have been profitable enough to BEAT THE TIME DECAY. Perhaps that is what I should

call this thread: "Beating B&H and Time Decay thru prudent speculation."

 

4)

"Real SLV" seems to be tracking SLV pretty closely. Basically, it is Silver divided by the

CRB index. I am hoping it will give some good clues about when to enter and exit Silver

trades. So far, it hasnt given any more clear signals than SLV itself.

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Where'd you get that from: "5% who make it 4% blackbox coded systems"

I certainly think that is nonsense.

 

 

Go get hold of Free Capital (the book) and learn more about real traders who did well trading real money.

 

BTW, you fail to consider those people who lost money for some years (were part of the 90-95% who lose), and then later learned how to make money with some consistency. I was one of those, and I share my knowledge and tips here freely - That's a pretty good deal, don't you think?

 

I invite you to "shadow" my trades here, with paper trades or real money, as you wish. And then you will learn how much work is involved, and how easy or ho difficult it would be to make money with the information that I am providing here.

 

I reckon someone could easily match my performance, or better it, by observing what I post here, and then trading a little later at a better price. But you would have to be quick to follow me on some of the trades. Many of the trades here are real, like the ZSL trade of yesterday. But no one would be willing to put all their real trades for free on a system like this - because it is too much damned work!

 

I ran a real portfolio of all real trades (and made decent returns) here on the GEI Trading thread, and it became "too much work" very quickly - in relation to the useful feedback I was getting.

 

Do it yourself before your criticise, and then you might get some respect here.

 

*BTW my partner has made $9,000 over 3 weeks on here (smallish) paper trades. She thanks me for some help, but has come up with many profitable trades on her own, using various methods she has learned. She starts real trading with real money, today or monday.

 

"Where'd you get that from: "5% who make it 4% blackbox coded systems"

I certainly think that is nonsense."

 

 

 

I read it somewhere from a broker house report, even so you are splitting hairs here, everybody accepts the fact the markets are now dominated by blackbox system taders so if we apply 60% to 5% winners that leaves 2% discretionary success! So you are advocating people to take a risk with statistics to prove at most 2% will be winners!!! :o

 

Is that realy responsible without pointing out the their real chances of losing money 98%? :angry:

 

"Do it yourself before your criticise" I have offered to give it a go on "real" accounts beginner v grandmaster no place to hide!!!

 

 

"*BTW my partner has made $9,000 over 3 weeks on here (smallish) paper trades" Btw she was shag**ng Brad Pit all week as well, oh no that was fantasy as well!

 

"and then you might get some respect here" Life has taught me people who demand respect never really deserve it!! Pot kettle black ETC! :D

 

Either put up a real live trading account to beat buy and hold or please drop the thread it has caused enough damage all revolving around fantasy trades! :o

 

Regards

 

ML.

 

PS. This is MY last post on this thread/subject everytime you post a fantasy trade it is cringe time, especially when real governments are falling around europe on almost a daily basis!

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PS. This is MY last post on this thread/subject everytime you post a fantasy trade it is cringe time, especially when real governments are falling around europe on almost a daily basis!

That's fine by me.

I am sure you can make more useful contributions on other threads.

 

I prefer the sorts of posts that Member 100 makes. (post #590, just above)

I think they advance the subject, rather than being like "sand in the gears"

 

As for this being "fantasy trading", please note this:

2)

True enough.

If I had been totally certain prices would be this low now, I could have sold Silver at $50,

sat back (on my $500,000) and done nothing until now. But there was no way to know this for

certain. AND IMPORTANTLY, I wanted to show how one could trade Silver conservatively without

having a crystal ball to know exact future price points.

 

In fact, in my own account, I have beat both AP portfolios, by buying Silver at near $30, and

then selling out everything near or above $40. In fact, I have not yet re-entered the Silver

trade in any major way - though I have successfully scalped some price moves. I am awaiting

a future chance to "load up the truck" at or below $30.

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This was first posted on the ET Peak Oil thread...

 

As you possibly remember, I put my own call strategy in place several months ago. After an initial surge, I lost a lot of money on it (in relative terms). So, there is risk in options too. However, my breakeven price is $150 Brent in Nov. 2016. So, I am sitting here like a big fat spider in my web waiting on the peak oil ignorants to get tangled up. :)

You are right : it is possible to loss money quickly on options, if you are new to it,

or get your trading strategies wrong.

 

In my Beating B&H portfolios, I am using highly disciplined and conservative strategies, and if you want to know more, than visit the thread, and I can answer some questions there. (Some may have been asked before, so maybe do some checking... If you get past all the mud-slinging from a small handful of posters who simply wanted to rubbish Trading of any kind - But I think those sorts of posters may have now decided to lay-off.)

 

Eric makes some interesting points about Futures trading here:

 

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1119-2.mp3

 

(He seems to have been hit hard with an obscure rule in his futures account. It sounds like he should be looking for some help from an omsbudsman. I once had a case like that - but with different issues -m and wound up winning some years ago. I don't envy him in having such a headache.)

 

I hasten to add, all of the trading in my Beating B&H thread are in a STOCK account, rather than a FUTURES account. Also, I don't use margin, and I always have loads and loads of cash. As a rule (rarely broken), I do n't go short. (The exception has been where I have a small position short, which is covered by In the Money calls on the same underlying.)

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I think SLV may be headed a bit lower, like $28-29.

 

But just in case it doesn't, with SLV at $30.25, I am grabbing 1,000 options*:

 

SLV DEC 17 2011 27.00 CALL

Last [Tick] 3.65[-]

Change -1.15

% Change -23.96%

Bid 3.70

Bid Size 253

Ask 3.75

Ask Size 151

 

At $3.75, and I also have an order in for another 1,000 options at a lower price

== ==

 

*I mean calls on 1,000 shares

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I think SLV may be headed a bit lower, like $28-29.

 

But just in case it doesn't, with SLV at $30.25, I am grabbing 1,000 options*:

 

SLV DEC 17 2011 27.00 CALL

Last [Tick] 3.65[-]

Change -1.15

% Change -23.96%

Bid 3.70

Bid Size 253

Ask 3.75

Ask Size 151

 

At $3.75, and I also have an order in for another 1,000 options at a lower price

== ==

 

*I mean calls on 1,000 shares

 

I wish I knew what the hell you were on about.

 

I cannot see where this "SLV at $30.25, I am grabbing 1,000 options" equates to the detail below it.

Where does the 1000 come in and if the call is 27.00 and the ask is 3.75 should it perhaps be 30.75 not 30.25?

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I wish I knew what the hell you were on about.

 

I cannot see where this "SLV at $30.25, I am grabbing 1,000 options" equates to the detail below it.

Where does the 1000 come in and if the call is 27.00 and the ask is 3.75 should it perhaps be 30.75 not 30.25?

Okay, let me explain...

 

When SLV was trading at $30.25, I decided to Buy Call options on 1,000 SLV shares.

Which Calls ?

 

SLV DEC 17 2011 27.00 CALL / can be decifered as...

 

SLV Dec.$27 Calls* (with an expiry date of DEC 17 2011)

At the time that I made the decision to buy these calls,

The Bid was: $3.70 / The Ask price was: $3.75

 

So I bought on the Asking price of $3.75, paying $3,750 for my 1,000 calls.

 

Had you see this trade, a little later you could have bought cheaper,

at $3.70 or $3.65, since SLV traded lower after I posted that.

 

SLV Chart ... Daily-update

slv21nov.gif

When I saw that reasonably heavy volume on the low, I thought: "This low is likely to be retested, but perhaps not today." When the market traded sideways to up over the next hour or so, it was approaching time for me to sleep, so I decided I did not want to miss the lower trading of the day in case if went higher, so I bought 1,000 calls for AP#1.

 

Later, both SLV and the SLV call closed higher:

 

SLV- Closing : $30.76

SLV.Dec$27c: $4.15-4.20, call it $4.17

(Note: the "intrinsic vale" on the close was $3.76.)

 

Tomorrow, if SLV moves higher, then I may sell 1,000 calls at a higher strike, that I own already, and so I will have in effect "replaced" a higher strike Call with a lower strike call when I have done that.

 

If SLV drops, then I will be looking to add more SLV.Dec.$27c, or maybe a lower strike. I do expect that SLV will trade lower, but when I saw the "gap down", I thought I should do something.

 

I hope this is all clear now. Obviously, in the middle of my trading day, I have little time from longer explanations like this. But after hours (like now) then I do.

=== === ===

 

*Dec.$27 calls,

Give me the right to buy SLV at $27 at any time up until the expiry.

At the time I bought them, I paid $3.75, but they only had an "Intrinsic Value" of: $30.25 -$27 = $3.25. I paid $0.50 more than this, with this extra $0.50 representing "Time Value". Why pay extra? If SLV slides to $27 or lower, I can lose no more than the $3.75 that I paid. And that limited loss feature, is worth paying something extra to get.

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Another leg down in Silver? - It is possible

 

SLV / Silver etf ... update : 1-year : 6mos-wo-610d

 

slv21nov.gif

 

SLV is now testing the 377d, just below $30.

 

If that breaks it may rattle down to $25-26, where the 610d MA would lend possible support.

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Silver Forecast to Surge to $450 and Gold to $12,000

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28118.html

Silly forecasts from May 13, 2011.

Thanks for the link, HG, to show how people got carried away then.

 

Possibly acted on by naive sheeple, unaware of technical analysis,

and that forecasts get progressivly sillier as prices rise.

 

Now a forecast of "Silver to hit $44 in Q1-2012" would seem a tad aggressive.

 

I find it strange how some here have ridiculed my (sensible) comments here, or rubbished my idea of swapping Silver for calls, to take some profits off the table. (Perhaps those foes-of-practical-sense have now moved on, or will show more respect for my conservative way of trading?) But it may be that when the next important lows come, we will only have a handful of folks who are still long-term bullish on Silver.

 

Remember those on other sites (like Goldseek) who were saying you should NEVER SELL your gold or silver? Do they still have a following there?

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