Beating Buy and Hold (thru disciplined speculation)

[drbubb]

Tomorrow, if SLV moves higher, then I may sell 1,000 calls at a higher strike, that I own already, and so I will have in effect "replaced" a higher strike Call with a lower strike call when I have done that.

Okay, I may have missed today's high - But I still want to trade

 

QUOTE (from my quote page)

SLV120121C35

SLV JAN 21 2012 35.00 CALL

Last [Tick] 0.95[+] Change 0.10

Volume 766 % Change 11.76

Bid 0.95 - Ask 0.96

Open---- 0.87

Day High 1.03

Day Low- 0.86

UNQUOTE =====

 

I SELL : 1,000 SLV JAN 21 2012 35.00 CALL at $0.95,

with SLV at $$31.43 + $0.67

 

Note that : SLV is up $0.67, and the Jan.$35c, up only $0.10

[geisaver]

Okay, let me explain...

 

When SLV was trading at $30.25, I decided to Buy Call options on 1,000 SLV shares.

 

OK thanks for explaining it, I realise you might be busy again now.

 

I'm trying to get my head around it in betting terms because that's what I do but know nothing about options!

 

So basically you have bet $3,750 that the silver price will be at least $30.75 on 17th December but you only lose it all if the price is $27.00 or below.

 

At any time between now and 17th December:

 

At $29.00 you exit and lose $1,750

 

At $34.75 you exit and win $4,000

 

"Tomorrow, if SLV moves higher, then I may sell 1,000 calls at a higher strike, that I own already and so I will have in effect "replaced" a higher strike Call with a lower strike call when I have done that.

If SLV rises the price might be say $28 so then you could exit and make $1,000 or sell the original and buy again at $28 to keep the bet alive but reduce your risk by $1,000?

 

"If SLV drops, then I will be looking to add more SLV.Dec.$27c, or maybe a lower strike. I do expect that SLV will trade lower, but when I saw the "gap down", I thought I should do something"

So if silver drops and the price drops to $26.00 it costs you another 1,000 x Ask price to buy some more options, so then you have two bets on.

 

At the time the bet was placed it would cost you $500 to get out immediately but that buys you time until 17 Dec for things to change.

 

Do you know a good website "options for dummies"?

[drbubb]

OK thanks for explaining it, I realise you might be busy again now.

 

I'm trying to get my head around it in betting terms because that's what I do but know nothing about options!

 

So basically you have bet $3,750 that the silver price will be at least $30.75 on 17th December but you only lose it all if the price is $27.00 or below.

 

At any time between now and 17th December:

 

At $29.00 you exit and lose $1,750

 

At $34.75 you exit and win $4,000

. . .

At the time the bet was placed it would cost you $500 to get out immediately but that buys you time until 17 Dec for things to change.

 

Do you know a good website "options for dummies"?

Yes. That's basically how it works.

 

When I buy a $27 call, I own the full "upside" above $27.

Thus...

SLV closed at $31.89 yesterday, so my $27 Call option has an Intrinsic Value of $31.89 - $27 = $4.89.

On top of that, it will also have an additional Time Value, perhaps $0.20-0.40 more, to reflect the fact that I can only lose the SLV value down to $27, below that I have no risk. (BTW, this "extra" or "Time Value" will be exactly equal to the value of a Dec.$27 put. Why? My In-the-Money Call has an identical payoff with being long SLV and owning a $27 Put.)

 

I bought an "in-the-money" Call option, (ie SLV was above the $27 strike), because I wanted an option that would move up at least 80-90% as fast as SLV. If I have bought a higher strike, like $30, $32, or $35 - then it would have moved up less quickly.

 

There are plenty of good sources of options knowledge on YouTube and Google, but I cannot recommend one exactly for you - You will have to find the one(s) that are best suited for your own level of knowledge. When you find a good one, why not post the link here, so others (who are learning) might also benefit.

[drbubb]

At the time the bet was placed it would cost you $500 to get out immediately but that buys you time until 17 Dec for things to change.

No.

The option had a bid/offer spread, and if I exited immediately, I would have suffered a 10 cent bid/offer spread (that's $100 on 1,000 shares) and lost my commissions (maybe $10 each way), so that's much less than $500.

 

By the end of Monday, I could have exited with a profit of maybe $500, and maybe $1200 profit by Tuesday's close. Instead of selling, I "improved my position", by selling off a $35 Jan Call that I no longer need (because I have the $27 Call), and that option may be headed to zero anyway, if SLV fails to reach $35 in January.

 

I was very aware that I paid $0.50 (ie $500) Time Value for the $27 Call, and I wanted to recover that (and more!) by selling the Jan.$35 call.

 

I now have a more valuable AP#1, and have improved my position relative to the B&H portfolio. It is with little steps like this, trading from day-to-day that I am beating the B&H portfolio. I am not taking big risks, and I am never exposed to the risk of being "left behind" if price of Silver suddenly takes off to the upside. The Calls that I own will insure I am onboard for the ride upwards.

[drbubb]

BEWARE holders of PSLV !

(this could have been one of the items that helped push up Silver prices today)

Sprott to Buy $1.5B of Silver Bullion

“Today the Globe and Mail announced Eric has filed a short form follow up Prospectus for a billion five physical silver,” respected bullion market blogger Harvey Organ wrote in a Nov. 21 post. “holy jeepers, it could be approved in as little as two weeks people tell me, and he can trigger it OVERNIGHT without warning. Just bang, if he has got the orders. WE all know what happened with his last Physical Silver Issue, it was 580 million and blasted Silver 18 to 50 bucks in 5 months.”

 

So now, finally, they have fingered the reason for Silver's big rise.

 

I see this planned issue as a way that Mr Sprott can (again) cash in on the big premium that PSLV trades to Silver.

Let the sheeple beware!

(If you hold PSLV, you might want to think about switching into Silver- and some SLV calls- now.)

[geisaver]

No.

The option had a bid/offer spread, and if I exited immediately, I would have suffered a 10 cent bid/offer spread (that's $100 on 1,000 shares) and lost my commissions (maybe $10 each way), so that's much less than $500.

 

By the end of Monday, I could have exited with a profit of maybe $500, and maybe $1200 profit by Tuesday's close. Instead of selling, I "improved my position", by selling off a $35 Jan Call that I no longer need (because I have the $27 Call), and that option may be headed to zero anyway, if SLV fails to reach $35 in January.

 

I was very aware that I paid $0.50 (ie $500) Time Value for the $27 Call, and I wanted to recover that (and more!) by selling the Jan.$35 call.

 

I now have a more valuable AP#1, and have improved my position relative to the B&H portfolio. It is with little steps like this, trading from day-to-day that I am beating the B&H portfolio. I am not taking big risks, and I am never exposed to the risk of being "left behind" if price of Silver suddenly takes off to the upside. The Calls that I own will insure I am onboard for the ride upwards.

 

Yes I see where I was wrong. I saw the loss as the difference between $30.75 and $30.25 but in reality it is only the spread between the Bid/Ask because you could have immediately got out.

 

You paid $3.75 for something that was then priced at $30.25 which represents 12.4% (or 86.6% 3.25/3.75 both % equal 1)) is that average?

If you had taken say $25.00 as your strike price would the bid price have been lower say $3.10?

 

I was reading a thing yesterday about covered calls on stocks v buy and hold. From the chart it seems the worse the stock does or slight improvement it is better to use calls. If the stock does really well buy and hold is better. Although I suppose you would argue you would use more calls as the stock was increasing to make a better profit?

https://www.borntosell.com/covered-call-tutorial/buy-and-hold

[drbubb]

Yes I see where I was wrong. I saw the loss as the difference between $30.75 and $30.25 but in reality it is only the spread between the Bid/Ask because you could have immediately got out.

 

You paid $3.75 for something that was then priced at $30.25 which represents 12.4% (or 86.6% 3.25/3.75 both % equal 1)) is that average?

MS,

You are on the right track here, but you haven't quite captured the notion of "Time Value."

 

Think of an insurance premium. When you buy insurance on your car or house, you are paying for something that may or may not return money to you. If your house never catches fire, you will not be able to collect on Fire insurance. But the fact that you might get something back, when you need it means that Fire insurance is worth having, and worth paying for. And obviously, the longer the policy runs, the more you are willing to pay for it. A similar concept applies to options.

 

In this case, I paid $3.75 for an Option which had two components to its Value:

 

+ $3.25 for "Intrinsic Value": which was the in-the-money difference between SLV and the $27 strike

+ $0.50 for "Time Value": which was the extra amount that I paid to be protected from SLV falling below $27.00.

 

If the Time Value had been zero, then the $27call would have better in all respects than buying SLV at $30.25, and no rational person would risk $30.25, when they can get the same upside for so much less money.

 

I could have also bought a Jan or April $27 call, but that would have cost me more money. Perhaps you should look at the Options on SLV and get a better value for how they are priced.

 

/see: Bigcharts (SLV) : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=slv&insttype=&freq=&show=&x=47&y=22

/see: Bigcharts (SLV-options) : http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/options.asp?sid=2305869&symb=slv

 

That's one method I use to keep track of prices.

 

If you had taken say $25.00 as your strike price would the bid price have been lower say $3.10?

Well, if the Call strike price had been lower then maybe:

 

+ $5.25 for "Intrinsic Value": the in-the-money difference between SLV and the $27 strike

+ $0.25 for "Time Value": a guess of what that "extra value" of Put Insurance at $25 strike

=========

= $5.50 Total Call Premium, if I have TV correct

 

I was reading a thing yesterday about covered calls on stocks v buy and hold. From the chart it seems the worse the stock does or slight improvement it is better to use calls. If the stock does really well buy and hold is better. Although I suppose you would argue you would use more calls as the stock was increasing to make a better profit?

https://www.borntosell.com/covered-call-tutorial/buy-and-hold

Here's how I look at it:

 

The more CERTAIN I am prices are at a Low, the more I want to own Physical Silver, SLV, or deep in the money calls.

 

The more I think we may be near a topping area in Silver prices, the more I want to take profit on my Physical Silver and Switch from SLV into SLV calls, "taking money off the table."

 

But even when prices seem very high, I may want to hold a Core Position + Options which add up to 10,000 shares-or-options, in case I am wrong and Silver prices run away to the upside.

[geisaver]

MS,

You are on the right track here, but you haven't quite captured the notion of "Time Value."

 

 

+ $3.25 for "Intrinsic Value": which was the in-the-money difference between SLV and the $27 strike

+ $0.50 for "Time Value": which was the extra amount that I paid to be protected from SLV falling below $27.00.

 

 

Yes I see how stupid my earlier post was now because you have $3.25 in the bag (intrinsic value) because you already know it is $30.25 when your strike price is $27.00 So a strike price even lower must have a higher bid price because it has more intrinsic value so there would be more demand for it.

 

I think the mist is beginning to clear. Thanks for your time.

[drbubb]

Yes I see how stupid my earlier post was now because you have $3.25 in the bag (intrinsic value) because you already know it is $30.25 when your strike price is $27.00 So a strike price even lower must have a higher bid price because it has more intrinsic value so there would be more demand for it.

 

I think the mist is beginning to clear. Thanks for your time.

Great.

So do you still think what I am doing here is RISKY or RISK-reducing ?

[geisaver]

Great.

So do you still think what I am doing here is RISKY or RISK-reducing ?

 

I think what you are doing is looking for VALUE.

 

I have been a gambler for a long time and the one thing you cannot do is take 3.00 on a selection if it is later going to be available at 4.00. Over a period of time it would kill your profitability.

 

I think people who just buy and have less of a gambling instinct. I couldn't say they have no gambling instinct else maybe they wouldn't even buy and hold. That's not to say there is anything wrong with buy and hold because it can still turn a profit. However someone with more of a gambling instinct, like you, wants to squeeze out every penny of profit that is possible.

 

I find that due to my gambling I seek value all the time in other walks of life. If it's Tuesday I'd have to go to Wetherspoons for my £6.49 "Steak club" (meal and a drink), I couldn't go to another pub. I nearly always have the mixed grill because it is reduced most in price compared to other meals (£9.10 on any other day) so it's better value.

 

I suspect a buy and hold person might not negotiate as larger discount as a trader on a purchase e.g. car, etc. Last week I got the house insurance renewal, phoned up and said if you cannot reduce it I'm leaving, they gave me a 13% reduction. It may still not represent true value because there might be a cheaper offer somewhere else but last year I couldn't find one. So this year I've saved the time looking and at least I've got better value than people who just renewed at full price.

 

Of course you could say I am just a tight sod - maybe that's also part of it

[drbubb]

I think what you are doing is looking for VALUE.

 

I have been a gambler for a long time and the one thing you cannot do is take 3.00 on a selection if it is later going to be available at 4.00. Over a period of time it would kill your profitability.

 

I think people who just buy and have less of a gambling instinct. I couldn't say they have no gambling instinct else maybe they wouldn't even buy and hold. That's not to say there is anything wrong with buy and hold because it can still turn a profit. However someone with more of a gambling instinct, like you, wants to squeeze out every penny of profit that is possible.

Hmm.

Well, I call it intelligent speculation, because I think it is about choosing well-time speculations where the odds are in your favor. It is nothing like gambling on random chance.

 

Yes, I keep LOOKING FOR LOW-RISK VALUE:

+ Buying Physical Silver and SLV when it is cheap, and

+ Switching to Cash-plus-Calls when Silver/SLV looks expensive

 

So you could call me a value-seeker

[drbubb]

A "Window of Opportunity" is nearly here...

 

GOLD & SILVER SUPPORT NEARBY ??

 

I may buy some Calls on GLD today (with one hand, if not with both)

 

GLD is getting very near to important support ... update

 

 

GLD support is about $160.80 (144d MA) : GLD-2mos.chart

 

SLV support is about : $ 29.70 (377d MA) : SLV-2mos.chart

 

(Though the opportunity looks to be similar,

I am not quite so bullish as when I said "back up the truck"

exactly on the last low - But I do expect to be buying calls.)

[yhmo]

I have been lurking here again recently, and got interested in Silver and post the following:

 

I recently opened an account with Thinkorswim, and found that I can only write covered calls and sell Puts with secured cash. Thus, I experimented with AGQ to see how to make money. This is what I did:

 

On 21 NOV, I sold -1 AGQ DEC 11 50 Put @4.00 (AGQ=53.35, IV=101.24% Delta=-.032)

On 21 NOV, I bought back +1 AGQ 50 Put @2.40 (AGQ=57.86 (up8.4%) IV=97.28% (lower), Delta=-0.24)

 

I made a small gross profit of $160 by betting on AGQ going up, a drop in the Put’s implied volatility, and buying 50 Put back at 2.40.

 

I could have taken more risk by buying the 50 Put later on 21 NOV, and made more profit. Welcome your comments.

 

[drbubb]

GS,

I suppose experimenting with one contract is a good idea until you get more comfortable.

So long as the commissions do not kill you.

On 21 NOV, I sold -1 AGQ DEC 11 50 Put @4.00 (AGQ=53.35, IV=101.24% Delta=-.032)

On 21 NOV, I bought back +1 AGQ 50 Put @2.40 (AGQ=57.86 (up8.4%) IV=97.28% (lower), Delta=-0.24)

 

I made a small gross profit of $160 by betting on AGQ going up, a drop in the Put’s implied volatility, and buying 50 Put back at 2.40.

 

I could have taken more risk by buying the 50 Put later on 21 NOV, and made more profit. Welcome your comments.

I understand you SOLD a Put (against a possible cash purchase of AGQ),

and then bought it back at a lower price. But could have bought it cheaper if you had waited.

 

Actually, taking a quick profit of $160/$400 (40%) is not bad going!

 

Your risk was that AGQ might have fallen after you sold the Put, and you would have been forced to buy it at $50, when it was actually trading below that: $40 or whatever. Are you comfortable with that?

 

BTW, AGQ is a 2X etf on Silver, so it will fall even faster than Silver. I think SLV is headed to below $30 soon, maybe even today. If it breaks support between $29-30, then it could fall much further, like $25, or even lower. Do you know where AGQ would be if SLV fell to $25 ??

[drbubb]

Added 1,000:

 

Buy to Open Call

Contracts of -SLV120121C27

Details Filled at $4.40

 

(in edit):

 

Later in the same day, I added another 1,000 - same price

[geisaver]

I have been lurking here again, and got interested in Silver and post the following:

 

I recently opened an account with Thinkorswim, and found that I can only write covered calls and sell Puts with secured cash. Thus, I experimented with AGQ to see how to make money. This is what I did:

 

On 21 NOV, I sold -1 AGQ DEC 11 50 Put @4.00 (AGQ=53.35, IV=101.24% Delta=-.032)

On 21 NOV, I bought back +1 AGQ 50 Put @2.40 (AGQ=57.86 (up8.4%) IV=97.28% (lower), Delta=-0.24)

 

I made a small gross profit of $160 by betting on AGQ going up, a drop in the Put’s implied volatility, and buying 50 Put back at 2.40.

 

I could have taken more risk by buying the 50 Put later on 21 NOV, and made more profit. Welcome your comments.

 

 

I notice you live in Hong Kong and joined the day after DrBubb

 

Is it love?

[drbubb]

I notice you live in Hong Kong and joined the day after DrBubb

Is it love?

LOL. Usually.

Except when we disagree occasionally about what to buy or sell.

She decides on her own trades, but I give her assistance when she wants it.

(That's safer for me than recommending trades, in case she loses money.)

[drbubb]

PRICE: 11/25'1 11/18'1 11/11'1 11/04'1 10/28'1 10/21'1 10/14'1 : 10/7/11 9/30/11

SLV--: $30.20 : $31.41 : $33.74 : $33.20 : $34.27 : $30.48 : $31.34 : $30.23 : $28.91 :

Chg.- : - $1.21 : - $2.33 : +$0.54 : - $1.27 : +$3.79 : -$0.86 : +$1.11 : +$1.32 : -$1.07 :

Silver : $31.27 : $32.28 : $34.67 : $34.15 : $35.37 : $31.36 : $32.17 : $31.23 : $29.98 :

Prem. : +$1.07 : +$0.87 : +$0.93 : +$0.95 : +$1.10 : +$0.88 : +$0.83 : +$1.00 : +$1.07 :

ZSL-- : $13.76 : $12.81 : $11.18 : $11.62 : $11.05 : $14.24 : $13.66 : $14.83 : $17.11 :

$42-X : $28.24 : $29.19 : $30.82 : $30.38 : $30.95 : $27.76 : $28.34 : $27.17 : $24.89 :

ZX/slv : 93.51% : 92.93% : 91.35% : 91.51% : 90.31% : 91.08%: 90.42% : 89.88%: 86.09%:

====

DXY-- : 79.320 : 78.023 : 76.911 : 76.911 : 75.089 : 76.276 : 76.607 : 78.753: 78.796 :

UUP-- : $22.42 : $22.01 : $21.60 : $21.71 : $21.16 : $21.54 : $21.65 : 22.270 : 22.305 :

CRB--- : 305.45 : 312.21 : 320.20 : 320.44 : 323.07 : 311.08 : 317.18 : 303.52 : 298.15 :

DBA---: $28.55 : $29.30 : $30.04 : $30.62 : $31.03 : $30.76 : $31.18 : $29.89 :

Rsilver : : 7.842 :: 7.850 : 8.104 :: 7.969 :: 7.965 :: 7.474 : 7.569 : 7.848 : 7.640 : : 7.776 : :

===

Ap$23c: $8.42 : $9.42 : 11.57 :: 11.07 : 12.10 : $8.97 : $9.62 : $8.97 / $8.35 /

Ap$30c: $3.87 : $4.55 : $6.20 :/ $0.00 /

Ja.$25c: $5.92 : $6.95 : $9.12 : $8.72 :: $9.77 : $6.65 : $7.27 : $6.77 : $5.97 :

Ja.$27c: $4.32 / $4.40 /

Ja.$28c: $3.62 : $4.52 : $6.55 : $6.20 :: $7.17 : $4.52 : $4.15 :

Ja.$30c: $2.43 : $3.17 : $5.00 : $4.75 :: $5.62 / $3.87 /

Ja.$35c: $0.71 : $2.09 : $2.09 : $2.09 :: $2.71 : $1.46 : $1.77 : $1.89 : $1.66 :

ATX.v--: $0.36 : $0.40 : $0.41 : 0.435 :: $0.52 : $0.61 : $0.67 : $0.68 : $0.61 : $0.75

DBA$30c $0.40 : $0.75 : $1.15 : $1.45 :: $1.82 : $1.80 : $2.17 : $1.52 : $1.42 : $1.67

SlwJ$25c $6.70 : $7.90 : 11.65 : 11.62 :: 11.47 : $6.37 / $5.50 /

SlwJ$32c $2.19 : $3.02 : $5.85 : $6.00 :: $5.82 / $3.75 /

GldD$134 29.87 : 33.87 : 40.12 : 37.05 :: 35.95 / 24.0 /

hk2840g- 1278. : 1308. : 1336. : 1331. / 1,000 / $7.77

GLD-ny$ 163.4 : 167.61 : 173.96 : 170.85 :

==== ====

Trades This Week:

SOLD SLV JAN.$35c at $0.95 x 1,000 shares = (+0,950 : AP#1 )

BOT SLV Jan.$27c at $4.40 x 2,000 shares = (-$8,800 : AP#1 )

Trades Last Week:

SOLD ZSL Nov.$11c at $1.60 x 2,000 shares = (+$3,200 : +AP#1)

Trades Last Week:

SOLD ZSL Nov.$11c at $1.60 x 2,000 shares = (+$3,200 : +AP#1)

==========

Cash: start.Wk / EndofWk== / Core-start / End / ==Chg.Cash

(at last week)

AP1: $366,443 / $358,593 // 5,000 / 5,000 / ==: +$0,950 -$8,800 = -$7,850

AP2: $274,595 / $274,595 // 8,000 / 6,000 / ==: +$0

==========

 

/History : http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[planit]

Thanks Bubb, this thread is really very good at showing how you manage risk and shows how often you manage to come out on the winning side.

 

 

When you started this how much did you think you could outperform the Buy and Hold by? Are you doing better or worse than you thought?

[drbubb]

Thanks Bubb, this thread is really very good at showing how you manage risk and shows how often you manage to come out on the winning side.

 

When you started this how much did you think you could outperform the Buy and Hold by? Are you doing better or worse than you thought?

I am not trading a huge amount here, and so I am pleased with the outperformance.

In fact, it is helping to persuade me to run a similar portfolio as a Real life wealth management exercise sometime in the near future.

 

One important thing that no one has pointed out yet, is much of the outperformance came at the beginning through merely STAYING OUT of a falling market at the beginning of the trading period. In real life, I plan to be long silver, but really haven started to build much of a core position. I have traded in and out at a profit, but presently have only 1,000 oz of In-the-money calls (at $27 strike) - as well as a much more valuable long position in GLD and Gold. So you could stay I am still mostly "staying out" awaiting and ideal buying opportunity which we may or may not see in the future.

[drbubb]

BOTH GLD/Gold and SLV/Silver are up today...

 

GLD : $166.73 + $3.33 / + 2.04% (hi: $167.14)

SLV : $ 31.22 + $1.02 / + 3.37% (hi: $31.36)

Ratio 5.34

 

I am thinking of how to exit the Dec.$134.calls - they expire in less than 3 weeks.

I think I might "leg out", by leaning on the SLV calls I bought on Friday.

 

How would that work?

 

1,000 shares of SLV are worth: $31.22 x 1,000 = $31,220

 

If we divide that by GLD ($166.73) then I get: 187.2 , ie 187 GLD shares

 

Current level for the GLD.Dec.$134 Calls is : 32.60 - 33.20, with GLD at $166.76

 

So I will sell half my GLD calls (200 shs) at a target price of $33.00.

 

SOLD GLD-Dec.$134c at $33.00 x 200 shs : (+$6,600 : +AP1)

=== === ===

 

Having done the trade, I will later be looking to buyback half of the short

on HK:2840 at a price of: $166.73 x 7.80 = $1300 or less. (200 shares)

 

/spreadsheet: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

(in edit):

I am also now selling the remaining 1,000 Jan.$35 calls

 

Bid 0.84 / Offer 0.86 / Last $0.85

 

SOLD SLV JAN.$35c at $0.85 x 1,000 shares = (+0,850 : AP#1 )

[drbubb]

Having done the trade, I will later be looking to buyback half of the short

on HK:2840 at a price of: $166.73 x 7.80 = $1300 or less. (200 shares)

So that's almost exactly where HK's version of GLD is trading:

 

HK-2840 : 1,298.00 +4.00 ... HK2840-chart

 

I am going to wait a bit longer, "risking some profit" on the Ag/Au Ratio

(I am long SLV calls x1,000, and short HK2840 x 200 shares)

[drbubb]

Remember, when the last bull turns bear...

I have started buying again.

And am awaiting a chance (SOON?) to buy at below $30 - possibly "with both hands"

 

Some may be shaken out soon. But I am encouraging people to see that currency risks

may mean we soon have an ideal buying opportunity

 

Do not be afraid to learn about options, and use them!

[malvern hills]

I have started buying again.

And am awaiting a chance (SOON?) to buy at below $30 - possibly "with both hands"

 

Some may be shaken out soon. But I am encouraging people to see that currency risks

may mean we soon have an ideal buying opportunity

 

Do not be afraid to learn about options, and use them!

 

My thinking too. Merkel needs a severe event(s) to happen in the EZ to instigate printing, and I'm hoping that these will lead to panic selling in silver as in 2008.

[drbubb]

With the "coordinated move" by the CB's:

 

+ Gold has taken a big jump - : 169.00 +$3.04 / Change: +1.83%

+ Meantime, Silver is lagging : $31.33 +$0.30 / Change: +0.97%

 

I Jumped in and bought some SLV in the pre-market:

 

Buy - Shares of SLV

Details Filled at $31.33

 

I don't know how long I will stay in the trade, but it seemed like an obvious opportunity.

 

BOT : SLV at $31.33 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (-$31,330 : -AP#1)

 

=== ===

 

(In edit):

I am "hedging" the SLV long with Puts on FCX : $38.86 + $2.38 / + 6.52%

 

I BOT FCX : Buy to Open Put

Contracts of -FCX111217P39

Order Number:K30NHFSK

Details Filled at $1.50

 

BOT : FCX.Dec.$39P at $1.50 x 1,000 shs - for AP#1 (-$1,500 : -AP#1)

 

(I am Looking at my SLW Bull Spread./see: http://tinyurl.com/beatingBH )

 

slw:Ja$25c $5.50 / $6.70 : now : $ 8.17 = 8.10-8.25

slw:Ja$32c $3.75 / $2.19 : now : $ 2.84 = 2.82-2.86

======================= :

Spread---: $1.75 / $4.51 : now : $ 5.33

 

It has a Max. potential value of : $ 7.00, so is 76.1% of this now.

Perhaps it is worth grabbing the profit now, in case it slides