The Breakthrough - Human thinking is changing

[Peace]

im not pushing its flowing

[THEBIGMAN]

Not sure about collapse, but a good old-fashioned extended depression will do wonders for the moral character of the nations. Good bye to decadent consumerism and all that,.

 

 

Not so sure about that, either. "Hungry pig dreams of acorn". Personally I think that extended economic depression leads to violence and war, particularly where economically valuable natural resources are highly contested. We see this time and again, from the storming of the Bastille to the overthrow of the Czar to the rise of the Nazis. Along the way, many a scapegoat is publically lynched at the behest of the braying mob.

 

Now, here's "a modest proposal": A series of small single-kiloton detonations at least a mile above the giro office of each of the biggest shit-hole cities in the UK with the worst record for excessive public spending on welfare, violent crime and low standards of educational attainment. The high-altitude airburst should quickly and humanely dispatch the UK's worst untermensch without causing significant long-term problems due to highly radioactive fall-out (and with a bit of luck, most of the fall-out should be blown over Scotland anyway). You get all the nastiness of war done and dusted very quickly which will set the country on a path to a rapid recovery. Not only will there be no useless third of the population to support with a ballooning welfare budget, but the opportunities for redeveloping the resultant brownfield land and its infrastructure should leave the UK with phenomenal growth potential. We can all be rich, I tell you! Rich! Rich! Rich!

[John Doe]

im not pushing its flowing

 

Tides don't flow, they oscillate .

 

Not so sure about that, either. "Hungry pig dreams of acorn". Personally I think that extended economic depression leads to violence and war, particularly where economically valuable natural resources are highly contested.

 

Yep, be careful what you wish for.

 

Now, here's "a modest proposal": A series of small single-kiloton detonations at least a mile above the giro office of each of the biggest shit-hole cities in the UK with the worst record for excessive public spending on welfare, violent crime and low standards of educational attainment. The high-altitude airburst should quickly and humanely dispatch the UK's worst untermensch without causing significant long-term problems due to highly radioactive fall-out (and with a bit of luck, most of the fall-out should be blown over Scotland anyway). You get all the nastiness of war done and dusted very quickly which will set the country on a path to a rapid recovery. Not only will there be no useless third of the population to support with a ballooning welfare budget, but the opportunities for redeveloping the resultant brownfield land and its infrastructure should leave the UK with phenomenal growth potential. We can all be rich, I tell you! Rich! Rich! Rich!

 

Impeccable logic, as always, BigMan

[Peace]

The Golden Ratio

 

link

[John Doe]

The Golden Ratio

 

link

 

Nothing new there, I got me one of them vortex machines at home, yellow one with a ball to help you steer it too.

 

One heluva sucker, (reminds me of someone)

[Perishabull]

I'd never heard of this David Wilcox fellow before, or his book, but it receives almost universal praise (at least on amazon);

 

 

eg

 

"I have a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and therefore I have a very critical and logical approach when assessing supporting data to an hypothesis."

 

Sounds promising.

 

Of 88 reviews, most give it 5 stars, 4 give 3 stars, 3 give 3 no 1 or 2 star reviews.....hmmm.......interesting.

[John Doe]

"I have a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and therefore I have a very critical and logical approach when assessing supporting data to an hypothesis."

 

Obviously not critical and logical enough to become a real scientist

 

 

 

 

Of 88 reviews, most give it 5 stars, 4 give 3 stars, 3 give 3 no 1 or 2 star reviews.....hmmm.......interesting.

 

Interesting in that you would have to think a certain way to buy it in the first place?

[drbubb]

Sounds promising.

Of 88 reviews, most give it 5 stars, 4 give 3 stars, 3 give 3 no 1 or 2 star reviews.....hmmm.......interesting.

I think it is promising.

But to be fair, I think many of Wilcock's fans have decided to help him out,

by writing a 5-star Review

[drbubb]

What’s next, if posters do not follow your belief then they get banned like the anti-gold believers did in HPC.

That, sir, is rubbish.

There are plenty of people posting here who I disagree with, and who disagree with me.

And there are even some disagreeable people (haha), but they do not get banned.

The recent episode of suspending 2-3 people for 2-3 days (only!) generated many comments on a long thread.

 

They were given a platform to voice their opinions, and some did. Would you see that on HPC ?

 

"...those that are here for finance will continue to drift away."

 

I don't see much evidence of that. There's a natural attrition on any website, and GEI sees that too. But new members now have to request a sign-on, and despite that barrier traffic here remains healthy, as old posters drift back on, while others drift away.

 

And in case you haven't noticed, we have had a nice run (over several months) of rather canny market calls. So those that drift away will be missing out on that.

 

I think an open-minded approach may actually improve someone's ability to trade markets.

[freekb]

I'd never heard of this David Wilcox fellow before, or his book, but it receives almost universal praise (at least on amazon);

 

 

eg

 

"I have a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and therefore I have a very critical and logical approach when assessing supporting data to an hypothesis."

 

Sounds promising.

 

 

 

A few logical fallacies here:

 

"Of 88 reviews, most give it 5 stars, 4 give 3 stars, 3 give 3 no 1 or 2 star reviews.....hmmm.......interesting."

 

using Erewhon888's earlier post about fallacies, that one falls under:

"Appeals to Motives in Place of Support, .....Popularity: a proposition is argued to be true because it is widely held to be true"

 

The next other one "I have a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and therefore I have a very critical and logical approach when assessing supporting data to an hypothesis.",

is a weaker version of "proof by eminent authority" or a variation on an ad-hominem.

 

It's equivalent to Harold Shipman (a doctor and Serial Killer) saying "I am a doctor and therefore I save lives". It's a possibly true statement, but it doesn't exclude behaving in the exact opposite way. Therefore, the statement does not strengthen the argument.

[Perishabull]

A few logical fallacies here:

 

"Of 88 reviews, most give it 5 stars, 4 give 3 stars, 3 give 3 no 1 or 2 star reviews.....hmmm.......interesting."

 

using Erewhon888's earlier post about fallacies, that one falls under:

"Appeals to Motives in Place of Support, .....Popularity: a proposition is argued to be true because it is widely held to be true"

 

Your response to what I posted is very interesting. You see if you look at what I have written I simply stated the fact that there are a very high number of reviews, most of which give 5 stars, and that I find this fact interesting.

 

From this, you appear to have assumed that I am presenting this information as an argument that somehow confirms the content of the book to being true. I find it interesting because I've not often found books on amazon that receive almost universal praise.

 

The next other one "I have a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering and therefore I have a very critical and logical approach when assessing supporting data to an hypothesis.",

is a weaker version of "proof by eminent authority" or a variation on an ad-hominem.

 

It's equivalent to Harold Shipman (a doctor and Serial Killer) saying "I am a doctor and therefore I save lives". It's a possibly true statement, but it doesn't exclude behaving in the exact opposite way. Therefore, the statement does not strengthen the argument.

 

Here you have assumed that I believe the review to be geniune. If you noticed, I wrote it "sounds promising".

 

 

Interesting in that you would have to think a certain way to buy it in the first place?

 

Very true.

[John Doe]

 

And in case you haven't noticed, we have had a nice run (over several months) of rather canny market calls. So those that drift away will be missing out on that.

 

I think an open-minded approach may actually improve someone's ability to trade markets.

 

That is an interesting point and as we have said before, approaches like TA (or even moon watching ) can have success if enough people believe in the approach.

 

Just like, if enough people believe “sell in May and walk away” then the theory becomes self fulfilling.

 

I’m not sure that realising this requires an open mind per se, but rather an awareness that the beliefs of others cannot be dismissed out of hand and need to be taken into account even if one attempts to study markets in a totally rational manner.

[drbubb]

That is an interesting point and as we have said before, approaches like TA (or even moon watching ) can have success if enough people believe in the approach.

 

Just like, if enough people believe “sell in May and walk away” then the theory becomes self fulfilling.

 

I’m not sure that realising this requires an open mind per se, but rather an awareness that the beliefs of others cannot be dismissed out of hand and need to be taken into account even if one attempts to study markets in a totally rational manner.

Many people say that when they are first acquainted with technical analysis, but I dont think it is the reason it works.

 

The interesting thing is that technical analysis works on charts 50 years or 100 years old, when fewer people were using it.

[John Doe]

Many people say that when they are first acquainted with technical analysis, but I dont think it is the reason it works.

 

The interesting thing is that technical analysis works on charts 50 years or 100 years old, when fewer people were using it.

 

That would imply that everything is predestined and, therefore, that there is no free will.

 

So I have to disagree. (Maybe I have no choice )

 

That's a whole new philosophical debate.

 

Actually, some of the EW wave theories make sense as they are based upon observations of the herd mentality. However, as with many “soft sciences”, their predictive accuracy overall is generally only slightly better than chance.

 

That said, I have noticed these theories tend to work best in times of fear rather than greed which would imply we are a lot more predictable in panic mode than normal mode.

[bobbyald141]

Many people say that when they are first acquainted with technical analysis, but I dont think it is the reason it works.

 

TA of course doesn't work.

Even if there was once something in it, it would very quickly become so saturated with players that margins would tend to zero.

 

JD, I agree with the "self fulfilling" effect under many circumstances, moon watching etc., but in the case of TA I believe that a saturation of players forces many to act on the strategy earlier and earlier and in the process destroy the effect they were hoping to profit from.

[John Doe]

TA of course doesn't work.

Even if there was once something in it, it would very quickly become so saturated with players that margins would tend to zero.

 

JD, I agree with the "self fulfilling" effect under many circumstances, moon watching etc., but in the case of TA I believe that a saturation of players forces many to act on the strategy earlier and earlier and in the process destroy the effect they were hoping to profit from.

 

True enough, however, there are several examples when I have drawn a straight line on a graph, along previous highs or lows, that the market has indeed turned when hit. I have often used these to pick in and out points on the spreadbetting, and have done far better using this approach. Now I only lose half as much money

 

I always thought that, if I were one of TBTB, (be they the fed, PPT, Morgan Stanley, or other market manipulators) the best time to get maximum effect for minimum dollar, would be to intervene at the most predicted resistance/support lines.

[bobbyald141]

True enough, however, there are several examples when I have drawn a straight line on a graph, along previous highs or lows, that the market has indeed turned when hit. I have often used these to pick in and out points on the spreadbetting, and have done far better using this approach. Now I only lose half as much money

 

I always thought that, if I were one of TBTB, (be they the fed, PPT, Morgan Stanley, or other market manipulators) the best time to get maximum effect for minimum dollar, would be to intervene at the most predicted resistance/support lines.

 

There is certainly lots going on in the markets, thousands of players with their own beliefs and systems and it becomes very difficult to separate a real effect/trend/turning point from random market noise. For every play someone has a counter-play. TPTB may sometimes do as you say but then another time they may push through resistance/support to force the hand of shorts/longs and profit that way - who knows? The bottom line is I believe that in the short to medium term the markets are far too close to random for the average player to make it worhtwhile.

[John Doe]

There is certainly lots going on in the markets, thousands of players with their own beliefs and systems and it becomes very difficult to separate a real effect/trend/turning point from random market noise. For every play someone has a counter-play. TPTB may sometimes do as you say but then another time they may push through resistance/support to force the hand of shorts/longs and profit that way - who knows? The bottom line is I believe that in the short to medium term the markets are far too close to random for the average player to make it worhtwhile.

Fair points.

 

Without the time to actively follow every twist and turn, I generally moved to buy and hold (buying the dips) of high div shares (during the last decade or so), only offloading when everything is looking c**p and the markets still rise.

 

Jumped out totally summer 2007 (and STR'ed) and stayed out until march 2009, except for a bit of spread betting for fun. Although, I have to say that in addition to the whole scheme looking like it was about to collapse, and the run on NR, DD's thread on "the great dow high of summer 2007" did have a fair bit to do with that decision. Although I know it doesn't work all the time, I still think that there were some great predictive calls that he made using EW theory at that time. Really nailed several major turns.

 

More recently though, (over the last 2 years) my strategy has been far simpler. Still going for the good high div shares on FTSE 100, but buying at the start of QE rounds and selling each time QE ends.

 

This has resulted in my most successful few years ever.

 

Currently stuck my toe back in about a week or two ago (listed on another thread) picking up some AV for 290.

 

Waiting now for FED/BoE/BoJ/ECD coordinated QE3. At that point, I'll go from my current position of practically all cash, to practically all in

[bobbyald141]

Fair points.

 

Without the time to actively follow every twist and turn, I generally moved to buy and hold (buying the dips) of high div shares (during the last decade or so), only offloading when everything is looking c**p and the markets still rise.

I generally stay out of the market although I have a few positions, gold etc., that I've held for a while now.

If I could see anything short or Medium term that makes any sense I'd probably have a go but is all I see is randomness. The problem of course is even if you have a system that appears to work you can never be sure that it does - it may all just be luck. Some people say that every stock they hold has been a winner and that's highly unlikely to be random but in a bull market it can be.

Good luck to you though if your making money.

 

Jumped out totally summer 2007 (and STR'ed) and stayed out until march 2009, except for a bit of spread betting for fun. Although, I have to say that in addition to the whole scheme looking like it was about to collapse, and the run on NR, DD's thread on "the great dow high of summer 2007" did have a fair bit to do with that decision. Although I know it doesn't work all the time, I still think that there were some great predictive calls that he made using EW theory at that time. Really nailed several major turns.

I'm generally very bearish about housing markets and stockmarkets. I see massive deflation ahead and I'm happy to sit in mainly cash for the present. I also STR'd in 2007 and emmigrated to Australia, the over valued housing and stockmarket was a big part of my decision but I also wanted my kids to have options. It's worked out well so far - more luck than judgement I admit. I was told by almost everyone that if I sold up and left London I'd be priced out of the market forever but could now easily buy my old house back twice over. The Australian housing market is in a huge bubble so I still rent. Currently getting 6%+ on my cash but the A$ can be very volitile and has traded in a wide range since I came over. Another credit crunch and the A$ will surely be hit hard again.

 

Waiting now for FED/BoE/BoJ/ECD coordinated QE3. At that point, I'll go from my current position of practically all cash, to practically all in

Hope it works out for you. If the QE's manage to hold back deflation I'd be happy but I just can't see it working forever. Eventually defaults will overwhelm QE and down we go. My "do little" approach has been good but I'm increasingly getting the feeling that I will have to make a decision soon but not sure yet which way to jump. As much as I hate to say it, gold and high quality US Gov bonds are favourite.

[bobbyald141]

Are we still on the weird thread?

I saw a flash then everything turned back to serious finance.

Where have all the lizards gone?

[drbubb]

TA of course doesn't work.

Even if there was once something in it, it would very quickly become so saturated with players that margins would tend to zero.

 

JD, I agree with the "self fulfilling" effect under many circumstances, moon watching etc., but in the case of TA I believe that a saturation of players forces many to act on the strategy earlier and earlier and in the process destroy the effect they were hoping to profit from.

LOL

You speak like a naive person. How funny.

My old billionaire friend, Jim Tisch, used to laugh at the college professors who said TA doesn't work.

"That's because they don't know how to use it properly," he used to say.

 

Here's my advice, just look at the 377day Moving average over various time frames going back decades.

If you still think price movements are "random" or "completely unpredictable" after doing that, you are blind.

[John Doe]

Hope it works out for you. If the QE's manage to hold back deflation I'd be happy but I just can't see it working forever. Eventually defaults will overwhelm QE and down we go. My "do little" approach has been good but I'm increasingly getting the feeling that I will have to make a decision soon but not sure yet which way to jump. As much as I hate to say it, gold and high quality US Gov bonds are favourite.

 

Nice move on Oz.

 

We had friends that sold up a few gites in rural France and moved out about the same time. Luck or judgment, turned out a fantastic move for them. (Opportunities for their kids as they hit school leaving age was their reason for going).

 

I have always believed that a credit crunch, by definition, is deflationary.

 

I still think it is, but with all the printing and inflating away of debt, they are just about holding it back for now. The deleveraging is ongoing and the printing etc I expect will continue for a good while yet. Of course, it is a fine balancing act and could derail at any time. However, I'm convinced that they are so scared of deflation, that they will risk a high level of inflation to avoid it.

 

It was when they first started printing that I realised just how far they would go and soon after got a nice run down house for a song.

 

As such, I am hedged as best I can, with safe high div shares during printing rounds, cash during in-between times and an average size mortgage that I will soon fix for 10 years, with enough savings etc to cover the majority of it if times turn bad.

 

Are we still on the weird thread?

I saw a flash then everything turned back to serious finance.

Where have all the lizards gone?

 

You have just left another dimension. A dimension not only of sight and sound, but also of made up guff and nonsense. You've completed a journey into a wondrous land where imagination and testable hypothesis work together for the betterment of all, where fact really is stranger than fiction. You have just re-entered, the Reality Zone!

 

Shhh, they might hear you.

 

In fact, don't even think about it, I’ve heard some of them are psyc, psyc, now what's the word? ah yes, psychic )

[drbubb]

(Many here will think the Wilcock and BF* are crazy when they read this,

but there's a chance some of this. maybe most of it, is true. I have my own separate source

that has confirmed one or two of the very strange claims he makes):

 

READ THIS - it will blow your mind:

http://tinyurl.com/DWinterviewsBF

 

Comparing seismic signatures

 

*One thing about Fulford: I believe that you will rarely hear him speak of an ET connection, and how the ET's might be behind the scenes motivating things, because he has little evidence that he trusts that demonstrates that... I find that interesting, since it says something about his standards as a journalist. If you read the article carefully, you will see that it is DW that brings in the ET context.

 

EXample of DW's side comments:

"I have sources with additional information that Fulford has only heard about in minor detail.

 

Namely, ETs have apparently been cooperating with this international resistance group to defeat the cabal.

 

This was totally unexpected, as the cabal was led to believe the ETs had to follow spiritual laws that forbade them from ever intervening – under any circumstances.

 

Advanced ET technologies are now being used to strike and disable cabal assets. Many examples have been given in my “China’s October Surprise” article series. Just read everything in David’s Blog on divinecosmos.com beginning from October 2010.

 

The joint campaign began last October – and many obvious, public targets were hit, all with zero casualties.

 

This included the powering-down of 50 Minuteman ICBMs – and top military witnesses have now publicly reported that a cigar-shaped craft was hovering overhead the entire time."

[bobbyald141]

I have always believed that a credit crunch, by definition, is deflationary.

 

I still think it is, but with all the printing and inflating away of debt, they are just about holding it back for now. The deleveraging is ongoing and the printing etc I expect will continue for a good while yet. Of course, it is a fine balancing act and could derail at any time. However, I'm convinced that they are so scared of deflation, that they will risk a high level of inflation to avoid it.

 

It was when they first started printing that I realised just how far they would go and soon after got a nice run down house for a song.

 

As such, I am hedged as best I can, with safe high div shares during printing rounds, cash during in-between times and an average size mortgage that I will soon fix for 10 years, with enough savings etc to cover the majority of it if times turn bad.

 

They are printing and will continue to do so for as long as they can but at some point it ends. There are untold trillions of debt in the world and the holders of this debt are currently happy to accept a small loss from inflation verses what could potentially be a huge loss in a deflationary collapse. As you say it's finely balanced and the printing presses continue to rumble but at some point further printing leads to higher rates and then it's decision time - either they stop printing and deflate or print faster and face rapidly accelerating inflation. Both will be very destructive and ultimately destroy a huge percentage of the imaginary claims to wealth that exist within many asset classes and likely destroy a significant percentage of good productive capacity.

 

Personally I can't see them printing. Hyperinflation would play out over a much shorter time span resulting in a loss of control by the PTB. Who knows where this leads, civil unrest, war? During a deflation the public are more controllable, politians can limp along, banks can be bailed, printing hidden, excuses made, scape goats found etc. It'll still be tough but the risks to the rich and powerful are reduced and ultimately that's what will decide it.

 

Late here so I'm off to bed.

Follow the footie? My team Charlton just blew a 2-0 lead.

[John Doe]

(Many here will think the Wilcock and BF* are crazy when they read this,

but there's a chance some of this. maybe most of it, is true. I have my own separate source

that has confirmed one or two of the very strange claims he makes):

 

READ THIS - it will blow your mind:

http://tinyurl.com/DWinterviewsBF

 

Comparing seismic signatures

 

*One thing about Fulford: I believe that you will rarely hear him speak of an ET connection, and how the ET's might be behind the scenes motivating things, because he has little evidence that he trusts that demonstrates that... I find that interesting, since it says something about his standards as a journalist. If you read the article carefully, you will see that it is DW that brings in the ET context.

 

EXample of DW's side comments:

"I have sources with additional information that Fulford has only heard about in minor detail.

 

Namely, ETs have apparently been cooperating with this international resistance group to defeat the cabal.

 

This was totally unexpected, as the cabal was led to believe the ETs had to follow spiritual laws that forbade them from ever intervening – under any circumstances.

 

Advanced ET technologies are now being used to strike and disable cabal assets. Many examples have been given in my “China’s October Surprise” article series. Just read everything in David’s Blog on divinecosmos.com beginning from October 2010.

 

The joint campaign began last October – and many obvious, public targets were hit, all with zero casualties.

 

This included the powering-down of 50 Minuteman ICBMs – and top military witnesses have now publicly reported that a cigar-shaped craft was hovering overhead the entire time."

 

I might be going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing the ET's you're talking about aren't Equity Traders?