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"... if the LQD:TLT ratio continues to lead the SPX..."

 

Exactly right.

I am watch that indicator closely now.

It had a nice bounce recently, but it has given up those gains now.

 

bond can effect gold prices too

Gold Traders Should Keep An Eye On Bond Yields - Kitco News, May 16 2014 2:21PM

 

Indeed ... to borrow an observation from Gary Tanashian ( Bond Yield Relationships & Gold )

 

30y/2y bond yield ratio vs Gold

UST30YUST2Y_zps01c5204d.png

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  • 4 weeks later...
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  • 2 months later...

Dow, keeps on keeping on:

True.

But it is getting very, very close to a key resistance level

 

AA_zpsdf244f35.png

 

And the historical pattern on Highs, unconfirmed by (new lows in) VIX, is about to be repeated

 

SPX3_zpsbb75db9b.gif

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True.

But it is getting very, very close to a key resistance level

 

Yep, although remains to be seen just how deep the inevitable correction will be. Will we see a wave IV correction that Caldaro is expecting , e.g., to 14000 +/- level?

 

 

 

Meanwhile, Portugal has already suffered a substantial correction in the last several months :

 

PSI2_zps4ac146c2.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Scandinavia’s Richest Economy Stumbles as Euro Area Rebounds

 

Norway, western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer and home to a $760 billion wealth fund, is struggling to spur demand just as the rest of Europe surfaces from half a decade of economic pain.

 

Screenshot2013-08-22at112135AM_zpsc9d978

 

 

The H&S pattern projects to ~ 0.1400 (= 2008 low)

 

 

. . . still on track:

 

ScreenShot2014-09-10at85442am_zpsc72e63b

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. . . relative to EUR the AUD touched and rejected the important 62.8% fan line. A break of this line would confirm the 2012 high and project further weakness. Note, a break of horizontal support around 0.650 would also bode ill for the Aussie.

 

xadxeu_zpsb98a9002.png

 

 

So far the 0.650 level has held, but the Aussie has struggled to recapture the 62.8% line and looks to be turning south following a rejection of the downtrend line

 

sc-4_zpscd0f0637.png

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Aussie:

AUDw_zps4491f5e9.png

 

 

and last, but certainly not least . . . the Euro:

 

EURw_zpscf7b8cca.png

 

 

Another eventful week for currencies: the Australian Dollar continues to respect the downtrend resistance line, as did the Euro which currently sits on the 62.8% fibonacci fanline, which as we have seen previously, tends to be an important "line in the sand" in determining a change in trend. If the Euro were to bounce, then here would be the place to do it.

 

 

 

Updated Charts:

 

sc-12_zpsf878ed6d.png

 

sc-10_zpsb6c78aae.png

 

 

And finally, Gold & 144 day moving average :

 

sc-11_zpsda8aa696.png

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