drbubb Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hoping for some big clawback. Often we see the worst damage early in the day... but not always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hoping for some big clawback. Often we see the worst damage early in the day... but not always I don't think it will happen. Too much overhead resistance now. GLD hasn't got much momentum on the minute charts. I know what you mean by clawback, but the strength isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Have you noticed that... Gold started a big fall just after Ben Fulford viewed the huge Gold reserves (held by Dragon families), and confirmed they were there. He just hasn't published the photos yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Have you noticed that... Gold started a big fall just after Ben Fulford viewed the huge Gold reserves (held by Dragon families), and confirmed they were there. He just hasn't published the photos yet. Have you got a link? BTW, is there any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12, the winter solstice (and the end of the world )? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Have you got a link? BTW, is there any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12, the winter solstice (and the end of the world )? See DrBubb's Diary. Any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12? Yeaaah !! I would have thought so, A 6,000 year calendar rolling over just might be meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Haha Newmont is now UP on the day / NEM-chart NEM: 43.96 Change: +0.21 Open:43.31 / High:43.96 / Low:42.96 Volume:6,508,262 Percent Change:+0.48% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 Haha Newmont is now UP on the day / NEM-chart NEM: 43.96 Change: +0.21 Open:43.31 / High:43.96 / Low:42.96 Volume:6,508,262 Percent Change:+0.48% Yep. Nice reversal candle in GDX too. I managed to catch gold right at the bottom, and Silver within 20 cents (Futures prices, not ETF). I told you I was watching the market like a hawk today . I have limit orders to double up. Hopefully will get filled over the night. Did you buy any calls, Dr B? I think we're due a $50 bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2012 Report Share Posted December 20, 2012 No. It is sleeping time here BOT my GDX calls one day too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2012 GLD at a major pivot point, following an ABC correction. Target, $163 to $166. The vast majority of ABC corrections I have seen, do not resolve in an immediate trend to new highs. They usually spend a while base building. That implies sideways volatility. Can anyone provide any examples which are contrary to my above statement? The other scenerio, the moving averages become resistance, and we break $158. This would signal Gold is going down with the broad market, so I would not expect $150 to hold for a fourth time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 23, 2012 Report Share Posted December 23, 2012 So far, this is a nice looking a-b-c down, with A and C of similar size. But what is not ideal, is the much heavier volume on the C leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2012 Silver formed some sort of Broadening wedge. Intraday It broke out and failed. I would like to see this take out resistance at 3030 soon (also the 38.2% retracement). I doubled up on Friday afternoon, but quickly sold the new half as I saw it was going to break 3000. Silver appears to be lagging Gold, whereas it has tended to lead. Not sure what this means? Longterm Failure to bounce here, base build and/or rally, will not look good for Silver. A break below $29 will mean a significant drop indeed. Perhaps $22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2012 So far, this is a nice looking a-b-c down, with A and C of similar size. But what is not ideal, is the much heavier volume on the C leg It is a nice looking ABC. It was about $5 off from being a perfect ABC. Not sure what to make of the volume though? It certainly ain't light, as one would expect, going into the holiday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2012 GLD at a major pivot point, following an ABC correction. Target, $163 to $166. The vast majority of ABC corrections I have seen, do not resolve in an immediate trend to new highs. They usually spend a while base building. That implies sideways volatility. Nadeem Walayat's Gold Price Forecast is in. A volatile sideway's trend for 2013. He say's an imminent bounce towards $1710, then a break lower towards $1580. Which is roughly equivalent to my above GLD price target. http://www.marketora...ticle38201.html Beyond 2013, I still see a parabolic move. This will likely occur after the broader stock market has bottomed. My plan is to trade these sideways up/down Gold trends, to increase my trading capital. This means I can take on a far greater position when/if Gold goes parabolic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 24, 2012 Report Share Posted December 24, 2012 Silver formed some sort of Broadening wedge. Intraday It broke out and failed. I would like to see this take out resistance at 3030 soon (also the 38.2% retracement). I doubled up on Friday afternoon, but quickly sold the new half as I saw it was going to break 3000. Silver appears to be lagging Gold, whereas it has tended to lead. Not sure what this means? Longterm Failure to bounce here, base build and/or rally, will not look good for Silver. A break below $29 will mean a significant drop indeed. Perhaps $22? Touch the line, then maybe: "KIss it goodbye" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2012 Touch the line, then maybe: "KIss it goodbye" ? Possibly. We shall see. But then, that would suggest Gold will make another low? Mixed signals in the precious metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2012 SHORT LIST AZO - Looks ripe for a short about here. BIDU - A bit late to the party, but could be a low risk short on a rally to the 21WMA. PCLN - Nearly ripe JAZZ - It's topping, but too early to short. Up over 100 fold in three years! Can you imagine the panic in this stock when it finally breaks down? PCYS - Same as JAZZ. Up over 100 fold in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted January 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2013 Could turn into a three drives (ABCDE) pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 8, 2013 Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 SHORT LIST AZO - Looks ripe for a short about here. Weak day for the AutoZone AZO: 348.25 -7.92 Open: 345.47 / High: 350.88 / Low: 342.84 Volume: 866,512 Percent Change: -2.22% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted January 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Examine the below chart very carefully. GLD has gapped up into a major pivot point, on the 1 hour charts. However, it could momentarily push higher tomorrow. Just to run the stops, and fill the gap from last week. But that is a risky call. Right here is a good time to cut my position, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted February 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2013 As GLD has broken significant support, it appears the pattern from October is an ABCDE, rather than an ABC. We are in the E wave. Ultimately, I expect the price to hit the bottom trend line anytime from late Feb, to mid March, and then s sizable bounce. Perhaps to $165 ($1700). Which, is also roughly 61.8%. GLD is not far from the the middle trend line. I think a likely scenario is a bounce of this trend line, for a $20 - $30 move. It could hit the middle trendline as early as tomorrow. $156/$1620 is the pivot point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted February 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2013 As GLD has broken significant support, it appears the pattern from October is an ABCDE, rather than an ABC. We are in the E wave. Ultimately, I expect the price to hit the bottom trend line anytime from late Feb, to mid March, and then s sizable bounce. Perhaps to $165 ($1700). Which, is also roughly 61.8%. It hit very near the bottom of the trend line. What I did not expect, was for it to happen the next day!! I suspect a bounce is due here. I am not yet sure of the magnitude though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted February 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2013 What if Gold continues sliding to the bottom of the trading range ($1525 - $1800)? Those moving averages (168wma & 177wma) go right back to the 2008 lows. I am sure there is no need to explain the significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted April 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2013 Capitalist Pig's Forecast - A rally to $1460 in the next two weeks, which is where I expect the 89 Hour moving average (GLD) to be. Then ... Wham! Smack down to new lows. I think an actual bottom may come in the next 6 weeks. My Gold stocks - I currently only have two meaningful positions in Gold stocks. Timmins Gold and Atna resources. Timmins Gold is safe to hold, as they are one of the few Junior producers who make real money (even at these prices), and have plenty of cash in the bank. Although I feel they could drop as low as $1.50 in the panic. Probably sell 1/3rd to half if a bounce materializes. Atna is now a very uncomfortable position. They are producing Gold very near the Margin at these prices. Plus, they are in the ramp up phase of a second mine which adds risk to funds. I smell shareholder destruction, such as a placement. Sell at least half if a bounce materializes. Unfortunately, my mind wasn't on the markets on Friday, where I had a good opportunity to exit my gold stocks. Only over the weekend did I realize the significance of Friday's move. Overall on Gold stocks, I feel like a Deer stuck in the headlights of an oncoming truck. On a positive note, my Trading account is all still very much in tact. I am actually quite excited about the swing trade opportunities I see in the coming weeks. Will post Charts tomorrow ... Today has been an exhausting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.