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BONDS: Low coming in Q2-2022?


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BONDS : who is crazy?

Low could already be in place at 111... OR ?

TLT : 10-yrs : last: 119.17 , 2.69% / TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) / TYX: 3.114% (YrH: 3.455%)

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TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%)

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Hey Phil
Did you hear Gundlach laughingly says he tells his friends that 10Treas could hit 6%, and they all tell him he’s crazy?

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  • 3 years later...
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BONDS : LQD vs TLT. .... from: Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / 30Yr.Yield

LQD : Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF.     : 111.76 -1.74, -1.36%
TLT  : iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF : 115.37 -3.25, -2.74%  . 
In fact there was a huge 5point, drop followed by a 1.36 point rally, that's 27% rally.   A big gap down is still intact

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LQD was down big, but less violently than TLT.  These are both big trades.  TLT has 48.36 Million volume; and LQD had 34.35 Million

RATIO

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Longer term rates squirted up... Now over 3%

TYX / CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Index ... Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, / 30Yr.Yield

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mid-2019: 10d / 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60,

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===

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Long Term Bond Charts - An important Low?

TLT / 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $115.71 / yr.L: 112.62 +2.74%

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TLT  All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $115.71

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LQD / Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: YtD: 10d / $111.67 / yr.L: 110.19 +1.34%

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LQD / ... All: 10yr: 5yr: / $111.67

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As I make this Post about a possible LOW in Bonds, I saw this...

UGA / Unleaded Gasoline etf... update : 10d/ Last: $62.68 vs YrH: $67.83, - 7.60%

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Gasoline Prices Reach a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH Under Joe Biden at $4.37 per Gallon — Second All-Time High in Two Months!

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline today is at $4.37 a gallon.

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> https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/gas-prices-reach-new-time-high-joe-biden-4-37-per-gallon-second-time-high-two-months/

Even as these sorts of headline stories are coming out, a peak in Gasoline prices may have just been made

 

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"Inflation Has Peaked": Here's What To Expect In Today's CPI Report  

With the massively illiquid market poised on the edge of the negative gamma abyss, today's CPI print could easily crash stocks if the number is above the consensus estimate of 8.1% (for headline, 6.0% for core), or alternatively could spark a huge bear market short squeeze. The extremely binary outcome is why there has been so little conviction and liquidity in stocks in recent days, as few traders were willing to put on material risk ahead of the print.

So what to expect? Here, opinions differ with most forecasting that inflation will have peaked in March largely due to base effects, however, the rate of its decline from here on out is unclear.

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According to JPM economists, energy prices look to have come off somewhat in April following their March surge, and he believes that the energy CPI declined 0.2% in April. But this decline could be offset by another strong increase in food prices (forecast: 0.8%) and another solid gain for the ex.-food and energy core index (forecast: 0.39%).

While JPM's headline forecast is above consensus, its core view is below: in April, JPM expects core CPI to drop from 6.5% to a still-strong 5.9%...

> https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-has-peaked-heres-what-expect-tomorrows-cpi-report

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Bidenflation Booms;  CPI prices Up 8.3%

Grocery Store Prices Up 10.8%, Most in Nearly 42 Years as Americans Face Higher Prices

on Hamburger Meat, Baby Food, Chicken, Bacon, Soup, and Coffee

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It got even more difficult in April for American families to put food on the kitchen table in January.

Food prices rose 9.4 compared with a year earlier, data from the Department of Labor showed on Wednesday. That is the fastest rate of inflation for food since 1981. Grocery store prices were up by even more, 10.8 percent.  The broader Consumer Price Index rose by 8.3 percent.

Inflation is now not only running high but it has broadened to an economy-wide phenomenon. Even the kitchen table itself is more expensive. Prices for the category of “living room, kitchen, and dining room” furniture are up 14.9 percent compared with a year ago. They rose 1.1 percent compared with March.

> https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/05/11/grocery-store-prices-up-10-8-most-in-nearly-42-years-as-americans-face-higher-prices-on-hamburger-meat-baby-food-chicken-bacon-soup/

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Mood On Wall Street Has Never Been More Apocalyptic; Tech Short Is Biggest Since 2006

by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 06:35 AM

One month after the April Fund Manager Survey was downright "apocalyptic" with the majority seeing a bear market and stagflation - yet nobody rushing to sell - and with optimism plunging to levels right before Lehman, today Bank of America published the latest, May FMS (available to pro subscribers in the usual place) in which the bank's doom-and-gloomy Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett (who most recently warned that the bear market will end when the S&P hits 3,000 in October) found that his view is shared by a growing number of even more apocalyptic Wall Street professionals, because the survey which polled 331 panelists managing $986 billion in AUM, revealed global growth expectations plunged even more compared to last month, and dropped to fresh all-time lows (net -72%) ...

The next part came as a surprise to us, because it confirms that peak inflation is now consensus: that's because 68% expect inflation rates to drop coming quarters...

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... with fewer and fewer (net 34%, down from 53% in April) expect bond yields to rise from here (but big difference with prior “big lows” Is 78% expect short rates to rise)...

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... as investors still expect a total of 7.9 Fed hikes this cycle (up from 7.4 in April).

investors%20expect%207.9%20rate%20hikes.

Ther...

> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-has-never-been-more-apocalyptic-tech-short-biggest-2006

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  • 3 months later...

 

TNX - 10yr TBond rate: 30.35 = 3.035% .. 5yr:

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5yr:

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I think the dollar is putting in a double top & poised to roll over. The 10yr yield is also poised to rollover & head for 2%.Lower USD & rates will help propel gold,silver & miners to much higher levels. Gold to $3000,silver to $50,GDX to $65,GDXJ to $100,SIL to $75 & SILJ to 35
 
Many signs we're in recession w/economy continuing to decelerate.Composite PMIs at 45,housing rolling over fast,retail is weak,labor conditions are deteriorating.Overseas is even worse.And inflation is rolling over & likely will surprise on the downside.Fed will pause this fall.
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"BONDS: Low coming in Q2-2022?"

Prediction is Working... so far.

YTD:  TLT LOW for this year (so far) was $108.12 on 6.16.22 / Last: $113.62 +0.85

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TLT-All :

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Excellent discussion here on Debt Markets, and Fed Actions

He says: "Fed will destroy its credibility if it moves from a 2% target to 4% target"

Alfonso Peccatiello: Inflation is Destroying the Fed's Credibility

Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months.

The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak

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HARD LANDING AHEAD?
Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months.
The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak.   The FED PUT from stocks will require a bigger drop in stocks than in the past.   The way that a Fed Pivot might happen quicker would be thru a drop in Jobs and the economy.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

NEW LOW in TLT / Bonds

TLT / 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ... ALL: Last: $107.49, -2.73 / TYX : 3.48% +0.134, +4.1%

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  • 1 month later...

The problem for Stocks is Weak Bonds!

If TLT falls <$100, Stocks will likely break Key support. YTD: 3m: 10d: qqq: 269.10 / tlt: 100.99=2.66x, spy: 363

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SPY - $360: Such a Key Level !

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79 -10.41, -2.8%  dayL: 360.94, 987d.MA: $357

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All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79

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QQQ / Invesco QQQ Trust, is Also ON KEY SUPPORT

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $269.10 -10.66, -3.8%  dayL: 267.10, 987d.MA: $270

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x

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TLT / Tbonds etf..   ALL:

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Ratio: 360 / 100 = 3.60%. Bonds are cheaper than Stocks (SPY)

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