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CURRENCY WARS - First, a major Yen decline

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Won Weakens on Yen Drop, Foreigners Selling Shares; Bonds Steady

La Repubblica - 7 Hours ago

 

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The won dropped after the yen’s decline sparked concern South Korea will act to weaken its currency to protect exports. Government bonds were unchanged. The yen fell to its lowest

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Is Abe's plan working?

 

(1)

Japan’s Industrial Output Rises as Yen Boosts Export Outlook

Bloomberg - 10 Hours ago

Japan’s industrial production rose for a second month, highlighting an improved economic outlook as the government nominated Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda to be its new central bank

 

(2)

Weak yen attracts Chinese online shoppers

People.com.cn - 9 Hours ago

An increasing number of Chinese Internet users are turning their attention toward Japanese shopping websites as a weakening yen has made goods cheaper for overseas buyers. The Japanese currency at one

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Is Abe's plan working?

 

http://www.ukti.gov....ent/455960.html

 

Summary

 

Japan’s trade deficit increased to 1.63 trillion yen (£11 billion) in January – a new monthly record. The recent fall in the Yen is beginning to be reflected in government statistics.

Detail:

 

Japan’s trade balance in January 2013 recorded its largest monthly deficit since 1979 when comparable trade statistics began. By value, exports increased on a nominal basis (by 6.4%) for the first time in 8 months. Exports to Asia (including China) improved. However, in real terms (by volume) exports continued to fall – by 6%, the eighth monthly decline. And the increase in exports by value was more than outweighed by an increase in the value of imports (particularly fuel).

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The Last man standing...

 

Mines&Money Hong Kong Conference Highlights

 

+ Richard Karn: on how fiat currencies implode

 

Okay, here's a quick summary:

 

Karn reads a huge amount: 10,000 pages a week.

and he hires experienced professionals who each read another 5,000 pages a week, each.

They are looking for non-obvious trends, and aim to spot market changes and trends before others.

 

One thing he has seen in all his reading of documents and history is how currencies implode.

 

Currencies implode from the outer ring in towards the core.

 

Karn says that The Dollar and Gold will be the last two currencies standing.

 

Why?

Because the Dollar has been the reserve currency for the world, and will be the strongest (of the weak and doomed) fiat currency until the end. One reason for this, is because so many people have borrowed in US dollars, and they will need to buy dollars to service their debts. Another reason is that many countries rely on the Dollar (to help support their own currencies), and will want to prop up the dollar along with their own, until they cannot.

 

Most everyone at the conference found Karn's argument very convincing. I spoke with him afterwards, and someone was complimenting him on "his theory", and he said, "It is not my theory, it is just history."

 

So the last two currencies standing will be the Dollar and Gold. And after that, Gold (and Silver) will stand on their own.

 

So is Richard Karn's view.

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Asian Currencies Drop a Fifth Week as Cyprus Deters Risk-Taking

La Repubblica - 10 Hours ago

 

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies headed for a fifth weekly decline, the longest losing streak since June, as a failed rescue plan for Cyprus deepened concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen and

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usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest

=== =====

Norwegian Kroner

 

nokg.gif

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CURRENCY WARS thread /

( Other FX )

usdEGP / Egy. Pound : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest

usdNOK / Nor. Kroner : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest

usdMYR / My. Ringgit : 5yr : 1yr : 3mo : 10d : Latest

=== =====

 

Ringgit Nears 5-Week High as Fed Bond-Buying Seen Driving Flows

BusinessWeek - 113 Minutes ago

Malaysia’s ringgit advanced toward a five-week high on speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus policy that has boosted inflows into emerging-market assets. Government bonds were littl

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Thanks to PD for the chart...

 

Here, I have added some trendlines - The USD looks toppy.

 

usd1.png

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I reckon this bounce in Sterling will be followed by new lows.

 

gbpm.png

 

I Look for Sterling to make a fresh low within 3-6 months, as RSI makes a higher low

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A$ looks toppy, even as the US$ looks toppy...

 

FXA / A$ -- : 5-years : 2yrs : 6mos : 10d : Latest

 

fxa.gif

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. . . and to complement the AUD chart: AUD/JPY

 

AUD-JPY_zps9802da64.png

 

 

Meanwhile, looks like the bounce in the JPY has more legs

 

JPY_zps75f8c640.png

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The Yen Bounce may well be a "Dead Cat bounce"

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THE FUNNY THING IS...

 

The USD is holding up well / DXY-chart / while...

There's plenty of NEGATIVE talk towards the US Dollar

 

(Example):

5 of 10 Top Economies in the World Drop the Dollar

Posted By: Susoni / 2-Apr-2013

 

The U.S Dollar is quickly losing its status as the world reserve currency. Five of the top ten economies in the world, plus a few others, no longer use the dollar as an intermediary currency for trade. This trend poses a huge risk to the dollar and the United States along with it.

ZeroHedge points out today that Australia, the world’s 12th-ranked economy, has now joined a growing list of nations that have agreed to bypass the dollar in bilateral trade with China. China, ranked 2nd behind the U.S., also has similar agreements with Japan (3rd), Brazil (6th), India (9th), and Russia (10th).

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THE FUNNY THING IS...

 

The USD is holding up well / DXY-chart / while...

There's plenty of NEGATIVE talk towards the US Dollar

 

I agree, the USD chart looks constructive ... however, at least in the very short term, sentiment appears a little stretched:

 

Screenshot2013-04-02at60152PM_zps89ff839e.png

 

Screenshot2013-04-02at55611PM_zps4b919189.png

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I agree, the USD chart looks constructive ... however, at least in the very short term, sentiment appears a little stretched:

 

Screenshot2013-04-02at60152PM_zps89ff839e.png

 

Screenshot2013-04-02at55611PM_zps4b919189.png

 

Is the green arrow where you went long? (and if so) What was the rationale?

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Is the green arrow where you went long? (and if so) What was the rationale?

 

Could have, would have, and probably should have . . . alas. Anyway, I've been playing around with Fibonacci fans for some time and continue to be amazed with their (for lack of a better term) "technical validity". Although the $USD chart drawn above is slightly "porous", the green arrow represents the test and rejection of the 62% fanline, suggesting the downtrend from 2009-2011 had been negated. An entry and stop around green arrow would have been a nice trade.

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. . . a criticism of fanlines however might be that they are behind the curve. E.g., if we take another look at the Yen, in terms of fanlines, we are now approaching a critical retest of the 62% fanline. However, this is after completing an almost textbook head & shoulders pattern. Still, from a longer term perspective, the fanlines should still be helpful in confirming the new trend.

 

xjy_zpsaf112a46.png

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brief update on the Yen: we got our "kiss" yesterday, and (pre-US market open) looks like we might get our "wave goodbye" today

 

sc_zpscfbcc679.png

 

Screenshot2013-04-04at114602AM_zpsdd948c5f.png

 

 

 

 

[Edit] ... although, there's probably cause for caution, as big moves on headlines often prove reactionary:

 

Screenshot2013-04-04at120024PM_zps2e47f4e4.png

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So now the battle for inflation begins in earnest. Whither Japan?

 

Gold up 201 yen/ gram.

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Nice call, Happy... and we have this forecast in the Original Post

 

Headline: A major Yen decline underway

How low can the yen go? Is FXY-100 the next big Target ?

=============================================

 

100.11 is As near "as dammit" to my FXY-100 target

 

Whoops !

 

FXY-Chart

 

A fast big drop in recent days from 105 - culminating in this:

 

FXY : 100.17 -1.63

Open: 101.39 / High: 101.53 / Low: 100.11

Volume: 1,616,282

Percent Change: -1.60%

 

It now looks like we will get an overshoot

 

Gold-in-Yen is likely to challenge the Old Highs soon

 

goldinfxy.png

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Australia, China strike deal on currency

Click2Houston.com - 3 Hours ago

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) - Trade between Australia and China just got a little easier.The Australian dollar is set to become only the third currency to trade directly with the Chinese yuan -- a move that

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Australia, China strike deal on currency

Click2Houston.com - 3 Hours ago

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) - Trade between Australia and China just got a little easier.The Australian dollar is set to become only the third currency to trade directly with the Chinese yuan -- a move that

 

A not insignificant news item in the scheme of things! Move over Yen-carry trade?

 

Not withstanding a decent correction in the near term, this should bode well for the Aussie going forward.

 

 

 

... speaking of Yen:

 

Screenshot2013-04-09at20221PM_zpsf517c635.png

 

 

and another look at the longer term fractal

 

xjymonthly_zps6dd35feb.png

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