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Van

Van's Journal - 2013

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I am beginning to take a closer look at some FTSE350 stocks for some potential trades.

BARC.L

Underperformed FTSE this year; 144dma has just reached inflexion point and is beginning to turn down.

Open short on a close below 270:

 

barc.jpg

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My gold & silver positions were stopped out. Gold seems to have peaked on Syria; I think we're probably in for a bout of profit-taking now, and the action of the GDX in the last 2 sessions were a good warning.

In fact I have trimmed down a lot of portfolio positions.

 

Now just:

 

Long NDX

Short PHM & TOL

 

I will be watching the US builders keenly with a view to entering more short positions.

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Just researching various charts threw up ASOS - surely one of the greatest growth stocks in the history of publicly traded companies.

 

You could have bough this stock at various intervals points through 2003, saw your money go up 20 or 30 times with in a year, and if you had sold then you would have missed out on at least a further 20 or 30 times that return again.

 

From it's 2003 low of 3.25p to the current price of £47.58 ASOS is up an incredible x1,464 fold - simply amazing!!

 

asos.jpg

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I am looking at the next Asos stocks. My Jim Slater books arrived and I am ploughing my way through them. With the right stock selection and technicals - that is the winning combination. Flicking through the book,1000gbp invested with SAGE ( an account software product) would be worth 250,000gbp at the peak. Most of the gains looked like it happened during the blow off top nearer the end.

 

Gold juniors, when the time is right is a good play( back in 2007 - GFM, CEY,AGQ, MML) but a small growth software/internet or a business that makes things for a global growing market look like good bets. Something that can be made over and over for little cost for a global audience, and at the frontier of innovation and development.

 

Examples:

 

OPAY - just breaking out of the 200p area, but marketcap is a little on the big side at just over 300m. Its business is in online payments and is like paypal or worldpay.

 

ECK - passing the 20p area. They are automated call centres. They are a small company so this might be spike rather than a new trend.

 

GHT - passing the 100p area. They are support software writers for banks and other businesses. They have launched a new product.

 

 

Do your own research everyone !

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Interesting, Van.

 

I wonder if you have read the Free Capital book, by one of our posters on GEI, Gut Thomas.

 

He looks at some very different trading strategies, some of which may fit in with the one you are developing as your own

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Here is rule #7:

 

7. Breaking a bad run – Liquidate All Losing Positions After a 3-trade Losing Run

 

If I make 3 losses in a row, whether or not I close out manually or am stopped out, I must close out any and all positions currently in loss. Only profitable positions are allowed to be kept. No new trades or increases in position will be allowed for 1 week.

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Interesting, Van.

 

I wonder if you have read the Free Capital book, by one of our posters on GEI, Gut Thomas.

 

He looks at some very different trading strategies, some of which may fit in with the one you are developing as your own

 

Not familiar with it, but it looks interesting.

A little like Market Wizards, perhaps?

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I have liquidated nearly all position. Some of my stops were taken out, and I was finding myself getting anxious and breaking some of my trading rule.

 

Nonetheless it has been a good couple of months, and I will scale back into positions when my mental capital is replenished.

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I see nothing has changed in the 18 years since I was studying A-level econ:

 

http://www.adamsmith...level-economics

 

"History refutes the Keynesian Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Hyperinflation occurred in Zimbabwe despite the fact that the economy suffered from mass unemployment and a negative output gap at the same time. "

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Is the Bond market breaking down?

 

This could be a very significant breakout.

Government borrowing rates to spike?

 

us10yr.jpg

 

 

uk10yr.jpg

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We could get a flight into Gold

 

r3j.gif

 

Or Gold could be hit by rising rates

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Here are two stocks I am LONG on:

 

Might Apple looks like its emerging from it's own bear market and ready to run right back up to the highs:

 

aapl.jpg

 

 

Sony is a recoving giant... or should that be a giant recovery?

 

sne.jpg

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Interesting.

 

What made you Buy those two?

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Interesting.

 

What made you Buy those two?

 

Also, for SNE I think they they will win the next gen console war. Look at what happened to Nintendo's chart when it the Wii was the clear front runner back in 2007.

 

This generation however Wii-U has barely made a dent, and PS4 is already outselling XB-1 by 70% in the US market, in which Microsoft has traditionally been very stong.

 

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Everywhere you look, more signs coming out of the woodwork of a major top in sentiment,

 

Economic confidence is now the highest it has been for this parliament:

 

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3263/Labour-lead-of-three-points-as-Milibands-personal-ratings-fall-to-lowest-ever.aspx

This poll also records the highest level of economic optimism since November 2009, continuing the upward trend in optimism seen since March. 46% now expect the general economic condition of the country to improve in the next 12 months while 23% think it will get worse and 28% believe it will stay the same. This gives an Economic Optimism Index score of +23 (% improve minus % get worse).

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The whipsawing PMs are no fun for my trend-following technique at the moment. It's clear that there is some base-building that needs to be done.

 

 

However here is one commodity that has just put in a higher low and a higher high and looks like it is reversing a long downtrend:

 

sugar_2013_09_23.jpg

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That Sugar #11 now broken out and now entered early stage 2.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=SUGAR&insttype=Future

 

I am aggressively pyramiding my long position after each last entry shows a clear profit.

 

 

 

 

Denominated in GBP, it doesnt look to have broken out yet. How are you exposed?

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Denominated in GBP, it doesnt look to have broken out yet. How are you exposed?

 

I just spreadbet on it.

 

The GBPUSD is a separate market - don't mix the two. You don't hear the FX traders saying "GBP hasn't broken out in Oil yet" do you?

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I just spreadbet on it.

 

The GBPUSD is a separate market - don't mix the two. You don't hear the FX traders saying "GBP hasn't broken out in Oil yet" do you?

Agreed. Spreadbets i agree but for ETF's where your based in GBP, thats the price you want to see moving.

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The whipsawing PMs are no fun for my trend-following technique at the moment. It's clear that there is some base-building that needs to be done.

 

 

However here is one commodity that has just put in a higher low and a higher high and looks like it is reversing a long downtrend:

 

sugar_2013_09_23.jpg

 

 

That Sugar chart is up to 18.50 and looking VERY good now. Unfortunately I got whipsawed out and didn't follow it closely enough to buy back (which I should have done, at least on a couple of occasions). It's hard to buy now having missed such a strong rally.. maybe we'll get a chance on a pullback.

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