Van's Journal - 2013

[Van]

Did someone say it was a bull market? FTSE has returned nothing for investors in the last 6-8 months, and and is right in trouble here.

 

A cross of the 89/144dma average, together with a test of significant mid-term support. A move lower could turn into something much uglier.

 

[Van]

Divergence on the $NYAD indicator:

 

 

http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/is-next-bear-market-about-to-begin.html

[drbubb]

Could be very telling...

 

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend seems in play

 

/Tony-C: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/10/07/monday-update-377/

[Van]

Wenstein analysis of the FTSE 350 sectors:

 

NEUTRAL(BASE) | 2 | 5.7%

ADVANCING | 15 | 42.9%

NEUTRAL(TOP) | 18 | 51.4%

DECLINING | 1 | 2.9%

 

No surprise here; Stan would not be trying to short in this market; too much is still going up, and all boats tend to go up in a rising tide.

 

Updated 08/10/2013:

 

 

NEUTRAL(BASE) 3 | 8.6%

ADVANCING 14 | 40.0%

NEUTRAL(TOP) 13 | 37.1%

DECLINING 6 | 17.1%

 

A few more sectors have now moved into stage 4.

[Van]

Watching the markets closely...

is this the start of the end of the bull market?

 

FTSE and DOW are now in serious breach of flat 144dma, but sentiment suggest we are nowhere near panic:

 

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/charts/sentimentChart?_period=3y&stype=diff&sp500=y&w=600&h=400

 

They have been there before a few times during the last few years... and each time produced a strong rally to new highs. The saying goes that when the market doesn't react to extremes, then the extremes become the new normal.

 

But it is mixed... Nasdaq and SP500 still very strong and haven't violated any serious support levels.

[Van]

The HUI:Gold ratio is breaking down to new lows.

This is surely a bad sign for PMs in general and IMO a warning flag that we could be on the way to new lows in the metal itself.

 

[Van]

Portfolio note:

 

I have sold out of *everything* at the moment.

For some reason I was getting too anxious on too many positions... probably means I need a break for a week or two.

 

PMs remain in a downtrend and look very vunerable, I'm afraid; we have clearly been forming a succession of lower highs in the last 5 weeks, and looks recent lows are likely to be tested.

[Van]

There is a teacher's strike happening today. Pensions, hours, conditions, the usual stuff.

 

I wonder how many teachers are learned enough to be able to defend pension payouts that are x20 times what they should be given their lifetime contributions?

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-2068056/Public-sector-workers-pensions-worth-20-times-value-contributions.html

[rigger]

There is a teacher's strike happening today. Pensions, hours, conditions, the usual stuff.

 

I wonder how many teachers are learned enough to be able to defend pension payouts that are x20 times what they should be given their lifetime contributions?

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-2068056/Public-sector-workers-pensions-worth-20-times-value-contributions.html

Oh dear Van,don't start me off.

[rigger]

The HUI:Gold ratio is breaking down to new lows.

This is surely a bad sign for PMs in general and IMO a warning flag that we could be on the way to new lows in the metal itself.

 

If you don't mind me asking Van,why do you use 89/144?

[Van]

If you don't mind me asking Van,why do you use 89/144?

 

Hey that's cool, I love being asked.

I use the 144dma because it is very similar to the 30week ma that Stan Weinstein uses with weekly charts in his stage-analysis system.

The 89 is just a faster moving average which I like to use to get a lead to what the 144 is likely to do a month or two ahead, and Stan himself wrote that with commodities one should use a shorter MA.

 

And lastly, they are both fib numbers, so it makes perfect sense to use them as any other.

[drbubb]

Van, I like them too: 89, 144 - days for moving averages

 

I use many in the Fibonacci sequence, and BOLD my favorites:

 

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987

 

I also use: 76, and 252 (very similar to 233- but there are about 252 trading days in the year)

 

76: "just works" - and it has some imbedded fibo relationships too

[Van]

Portfolio note:

 

I have sold out of *everything* at the moment.

For some reason I was getting too anxious on too many positions... probably means I need a break for a week or two.

 

PMs remain in a downtrend and look very vunerable, I'm afraid; we have clearly been forming a succession of lower highs in the last 5 weeks, and looks recent lows are likely to be tested.

 

Once again I am completely out of all positions.

 

I feel that I have been over-trading and lacking discipline, taking trades that I shouldn't have.

I also stopped writing in my trading journal, something that I started at the start of the year and really helped keep me on an even keel.

 

Fortunately my winning trades have canceled out my losing trades, but that is neither here nor there. Time to clear my head and leave the markets alone for a while. I have not had much time where I've had no market exposure at all this year, so this will be a good rebuild the mental capital to trade.

 

 

For now I have immersed myself in game theory study and playing micro-stakes online poker.

[rigger]

Van, I like them too: 89, 144 - days for moving averages

 

I use many in the Fibonacci sequence, and BOLD my favorites:

 

1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987

 

I also use: 76, and 252 (very similar to 233- but there are about 252 trading days in the year)

 

76: "just works" - and it has some imbedded fibo relationships too

76 is a lucas number too.

[Van]

Crude oil has been completely battered in the last 2 months.

I don't think commodities including PMs move meaningfully higher without oil also participating.

[Van]

Everyone is predicting higher stock prices.

Under such conditions do long term tops form.

 

Is this a quadruple top for the DOW??

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/charts/sentimentChart?_period=3y&stype=diff&sp500=y&w=600&h=400

 

[Van]

Have managed to turn $20 in $58 so far on Pokerstar, playing 2-3hrs a day consistently for a week.

 

I am exclusively playing ring-game PLO, 1/2p blinds, buying in for $2 with 100 BBs.

 

There's a lot of grinding involved, but I'm determined to crack this.

When I hit $100 I'll move up to the 2/5p tables.

 

I am keeping my table-limit purposefully small. At $2 per buy in, I have a bank-roll worth 29 buy-ins.

 

 

A few years ago I managed to amass almost a billion chips on Zynga poker stating from absolutely nothing. That was an awesome ride. But playing for real money and playing for pretend money is like chalk and cheese, and I think my success at play-money poker actually had a detriment to my real-money game, and I struggled to become a winning player for a long time.

[Van]

You want signs of a market top stock market top?

I got people who discussing financial matters on Facebook.

 

The proverbial shoeshine boys are piling in en masse.

 

 

Meanwhile someone put a rocket up the sentiment indicators:

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/charts/sentimentChart?_period=3y&stype=diff&sp500=y&w=600&h=400

[drbubb]

Could be a top - Tony C is making some noises like that

 

But he things there will be a higher high later

[Van]

I'm dipping my toes back in with a few trades here and there.

 

Thoughts:

 

- Stocks look seriously toppy. Never mind QE, every bull markets need healthy corrections.

- It's all about the USD at the moment. The PMs rally has been stopped dead in its tracks by the Dollar rallying strongly from the ~79 support area.

- US Builders have put in a lower high. Been making good money regularly shorting these, but really would like to see DJUSHB fail the 400 level. before aggressively piling in.

- Is the bond rally over? TLT now seems to be dragged down by the falling MAs.

 

 

 

Still grinding away at the poker. This week has been more of a struggle. Experienced a 33% drawdown but clawed it all back. Account is up to $62 now.

[notanewmember]

There are some good documentaries about the boom and bust of online poker on this post http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9343&page=6&do=findComment&comment=274218

 

It was lucrative but after the prohibition, the pool of players got smaller. The big fish (skilled players) had to fight with other big fish in a much smaller pond, so even the professionals got hammered. Do watch "A kids game of The Story of Online Poker" A fascinating story. I don't play it all by the way.

[Van]

Oh, there was absolutely a poker boom. It coincided with 7 seasons of High Stakes Poker on TV. As with all booms it turned into a bust. Most players find out they can't make money and eventually suck out after a period. Even live pub games and cardroom games are now far fewer. If the 1990s was the decade of pib karakoke, then the 00s were the decade of pub poker.

 

But funnily the traffic on Pokerstars is still remarkably high. Its the only site I will play on as it bans all the online databases that have completely ruined the online experience.

 

And we like to have a game at work every few months... The standard is, lets say, pretty basic. Nothing more satisfying than fleecing your work co-workers for a few quid to top up the pay package.

[chazza]

Oh, there was absolutely a poker boom. It coincided with 7 seasons of High Stakes Poker on TV. As with all booms it turned into a bust. Most players find out they can't make money and eventually suck out after a period. Even live pub games and cardroom games are now far fewer. If the 1990s was the decade of pib karakoke, then the 00s were the decade of pub poker.

 

But funnily the traffic on Pokerstars is still remarkably high. Its the only site I will play on as it bans all the online databases that have completely ruined the online experience.

 

And we like to have a game at work every few months... The standard is, lets say, pretty basic. Nothing more satisfying than fleecing your work co-workers for a few quid to top up the pay package.

 

I toyed with playing online for a while, but the time required and the rates of return combined with a famialy and a job dont make it easy. Generally found myself running out of patience and taking the wrong bets. Then getting annoyed with myself.

[Van]

I'm shorting FTSE from 6750 here, and have my sell orders in place to aggressively pyramid my position on further weakness.

[Van]

Poker update.. the good the bad and the ugly.

 

The good - account is up to $84. I am homing in on the $100 level where I can look at moving up to the 5p/2p tables. Actually I plan to build up to $120 before moving up, and then give a $20 drawdown buffer; any time my account falls below $100 then I'll move back to the smaller table.

 

The bad - the drawdows are brutal. I went from $64 down to $40 in one streak, which may not sound like much, but most of it it consisted of about 5 all-in bustouts against the same donk in one sitting, EACH TIME I WAS AHEAD. I did very little wrong, just got on the wrong side of a particularly jammy git. It happens to everyone sooner or later. When that happens you kinda lose the appetite for it and don't play for at least a few days, which is probably quite a good thing, actually.

 

The ugly - So I reckon I've invested about 50 hours of play, double-tabling (sometimes triple-tabling) probably seeing something like 6000 hands, give or take. At $74 profit, that works out at roughly $1.48/ph. Actually that's better than I thought it would be. More grinding required, building up my bankroll at these 1p/2p stakes before I can more up. yes, I could easily just fund my account with a meaningful amount, but that would be defeating the point of this exercise - to see if it's possible to make some meaningful money as a consistent winning poker player.