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TinyUrl.com/About BITCOINS : DATA, Trading and Price Dynamics

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It supposedly hit $1000 on China trading, before pulling back to $700

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^Incredible. If I was in profit I would be stopped out. As a trader, I would wait for 1000 to be cleared in the next three months. This recent volatility where it can change value by over $100 in a week indicates the near to the end of this move. If it is to continue upwards, it now needs a period of consolidation.

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Alydian Aims to Sell Bitcoin Mining Platform in Bankruptcy

Battered bitcoin miner Alydian might try to sell some of its highly specialized computer systems at a bankruptcy sale while...

  • 11/20/13

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Should You Invest in Bitcoin?

Is It Just the Latest in a Long Line of Speculative Manias, or Could it Have Staying Power?


What is a bitcoin worth?

For the growing band of people who follow the virtual currency, the answer is self-evident: The price of a bitcoin this week surpassed $780, a record.

On Jan. 1, you could have bought a bitcoin for merely $13.50. At Friday afternoon's price of about $730, that bet would have grown about 54-fold.

The bitcoin phenomenon, and the technological innovation that made it possible, is interesting—but for investors large and small, the more pertinent question is whether they should buy the virtual currency or avoid it.

. . .

some economic historians are already comparing bitcoin fever to legendary manias of the past.

. . .

Larry Neal, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Illinois, is in the midst of writing a textbook on the history of international finance. He says he's thinking of including a passage on bitcoin and how it embodies investors' struggle for returns.

"Where's the backing that would persuade random strangers to accept this?" says Mr. Neal, who in his book "I Am Not Master of Events" wrote about a currency bubble in 18th-century France that ended with investors losing most of their money.

But on the flip side of the coin are investors such as Raoul Pal, a former hedge-fund manager and founder of the Global Macro Investor, a macroeconomic research service. This month, Mr. Pal issued a research report to his subscribers that concluded with the words: "Trade Recommendation: Buy Bitcoin."

Mr. Pal admits there's a likelihood that bitcoin ends up being worthless. But there's also a chance, he says, that it ends up taking over at least part of gold's traditional role as a store of value.

Other bitcoin proponents believe it could become an integral part of the remittance market, since bitcoins can be sent to relatives abroad with lower fees and less hassle than traditional money-transfer services.

Bits and Pieces

Mystery still surrounds Bitcoin. Its creator -– or creators -– has remained anonymous and specific details surrounding the history of the virtual currency remain fuzzy. Still, buzz is growing. Here's a rough timeline of the Bitcoin evolution.

If it replaces some or all of gold's role, given the limited supply of bitcoins relative to that of gold, the potential upside for bitcoin is huge, possibly hundreds of times the current price, Mr. Pal says. In other words, a small amount of bitcoin is a kind of lottery ticket. It will probably be worth nothing, but if it's worth something, it could be worth a lot.

. . .

The miners attempt to guess solutions to increasingly difficult math problems, while recording bitcoin transfers in the process, for which they're awarded bitcoins. As more miners enter the network, competition to find solutions also increases, and as more bitcoins are created, the potential payoff falls. The system is designed so that the total number of bitcoins won't exceed 21 million.

Once a bitcoin is created, it can be sent between users using digital addresses and stored in virtual "wallets," which have passwords that guard access to the bitcoins. If the passwords are lost or stolen, the bitcoins are lost forever.

. . .

Some merchants say they like bitcoin because they don't have to pay hefty credit-card transaction fees. Investors worried about inflation like the fact that the supply of bitcoins can't be manipulated by a central authority. Criminals like that transactions happen anonymously.

. . .

According to an analysis of bitcoin prices performed for The Wall Street Journal by Mr. Harvey, between late 2010 and Wednesday, bitcoin's return in U.S. dollars had an annualized "standard deviation" of about 139%. That means it was roughly 7½ times as volatile as gold and more than eight times as volatile as the S&P 500.

Since last Friday, when bitcoin cost $411, the price of a bitcoin has fallen as low as $387 and risen as high as $782, according to CoinDesk.com, which averages bitcoin prices across multiple exchanges.

Marie Brière, an associate professor at Université Paris Dauphine in France, calculated that between July 2010 and July 2013, bitcoin had an annualized return of more than 370% with 175% volatility. She found that its returns had a weak but significant correlation with gold and inflation-linked bonds, supporting the notion that some investors see bitcoin as an inflation fighter.


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Altcoins doing their bit for Future of Money - SCMP article


+ PeerCoin : a rival to Bitcoins, all coins together: worth $40 million


"Looking down the road 10 years, I definitely see bitcoin being ousted," Lawrence Blankenship, 34, in Springfield, MS




+ LiteCoin : next biggest after Bitcoins, created by Charles Lee, in Silicon Valley

+ AnonCoin

+ Quarks


Exchange: Cryptsy


Many of the Altcoins have kept clip with the big rally in Bitcoins


Bitcoins (all in circulation) are worth billions, while few rivals are over $100 Million


Its attributes:

"an open source computer code with no central authority and a mathematical rate of expansion"


Other ALTcoins have the same problem: "Violent fluctuations" in price.

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Third largest cryptocurrency peercoin moves into spotlight with Vault ...


CoinDesk-by Danny Bradbury-9 Nov 2013
Peercoin may be 'the little altcoin that could', but it still has a long way to go. ...
Recently, John Manglaviti joined his team, effectively taking on ...not very happy about that, which seemed a bit unfair considering how much time, ...

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Not so long ago bit coins were £1 each, now they are some £500 each. It is a "store of value", but it doesn't produce income. The world moves from the return on capital to the return Of capital, and back and forth from polar opposites.


I can't wait for this capital to move back to the return on capital!

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Yeah - but we will have to start seeing Cash-on-Cash returns.


You can get them in Property, which is why that asset is in such demand

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One Troy ounce of Gold is about £750.

One Bitcoin is about £540 each.

One Tesco Share is 340p for reference.

Let us see where they will be in 5 years time.

At the time of writing, Gold sentiment is at a 2-3 year low. And Bitcoins are at an all time high. Who would have thought it? Fiat money just seems much easier and safer in the shorter term!

You can't eat gold or bitcoins.....


I created a thread for future reference.... http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=30935592

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I will bet on GOLD winning the race.


Bitcoins could be near Zero then

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I am looking forward to hearing this one:


Clif's Red Ice radio interview up


If anyone can access part 2, please let me know if it's worth joining to listen to that


Clif High - Hour 1 - Bandwidth Caps, Bitcoin, ISON & Nummo Origins
November 25, 2013
Clif High, along with his associate George Ure, developed the Web Bot, or the Web Bot Project in the late 1990s. It's an Internet bot software program or a web spider that originally was designed to predict stock market trends. Eventually it developed into something different. Now it's claimed to be able to predict future events by tracking keywords on the web. In the first hour of the program Clif and Henrik discuss the looming internet bandwidth caps that are slated to limit, restrict and control internet data consumption. The control of the internet comes in many different forms and the cap is the latest trick by the ISP monopolies, enabled by government, to make more money and to shut down streaming services. Clif talks about hackers and other alternatives to circumvent these restrictions. Later, we discuss the "wings" that have sprouted on comet ISON in the last few days, as it's getting closer to the sun. We move on to discuss the positive aspects of Bitcoin, why you should get involved and how they continue to increase in value, as more and more people get aboard. In the second hour, we continue to discuss the technicalities of Bitcoin and Litecoin. High describes how to purchase Bitcoin, the incentives of Bitcoin mining and how to maintain your digital wallet. Finally, we discuss human origins. Clif speaks more about the origin myth of the Nummo as retold by the Dogon tribe.

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Paradise Lost ... in a Dump


The Unluckiest Man In The World Has $6.5 Million In Bitcoin Buried In A Landfill

NOV. 27, 2013, 12:14 PM

Matt Cardy/Getty Images


The unluckiest man in the world is an IT guy for British newspaper The Guardian.


Years ago James Howells bought a bunch of bitcoins, and now those bitcoins are lost for eternity because they're buried in a landfill.

The Guardian's Alex Hern reports:

"You know when you put something in the bin, and in your head, say to yourself 'that's a bad idea'? I really did have that," Howells, who works in IT, told the Guardian. "I don't have an exact date, the only time period I can give – and I've been racking my own brains – is between 20 June and 10 August. Probably mid-July". At the time he obliviously threw them away, the 7,500 bitcoins on the hard-drive were worth around £500,000. Since then, the cryptocurrency's value has soared, passing $1,000 on Wednesday afternoon.


That lost hard drive, though, contains the cryptographic "private key" that is needed to be able to access and spend the bitcoins; without it, the "money" is lost forever.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-unluckiest-man-in-the-world-has-65-million-in-bitcoin-buried-in-a-landfill-2013-11#ixzz2m0YSRdsh

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$447. The buy signal was a new high as I said somewhere earlier.


I didn't play the trade, as I don't have a Bitcoin account/broker or want to play the ETFs. But if it can clear 530, (take 500 as a round number) raise the trailing stop to just under there, perhaps 480, and at each round number it crosses you do the same (600, 700, 800 to whatever it wants to go, 1000, 2000 maybe? etc).




Replace "bitcoin" with gold, silver, google, tulips etc. It just becomes another emotionless trade.


$1,156 from https://www.mtgox.com


Although I'm not surprised to see this level, I do raise an eyebrow at the speed of this rise. Virtual money can move so quick. I would see the passing of $1000 as a new buy signal, and stick a stop under there. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH OF COURSE.


"The candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long, and you burned very, very brightly Roy." (Blade Runner)


Also quoted 7.38 to 8.12 minutes in "nothing lasts forever, not even banks" (strange but true)


I think it may have a bit more to go - I just checked the BBC News page, and Time Magazine - it isn't on the front page!



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I think we are in the early mania phase - we had the first sell off.


PositiveDeviant, on 27 Nov 2013 - 2:46 PM, said:snapback.png

but extreme price volatility doesn't appear to have been considered (at least not as a problem).

Why might that be.....?

Anton Kreil (a banker/trader) said at a London Economics lecture (it is on youtube) that volatility in trading is the key to profits.

Perhaps the makers of bitcoin have baked this into the cake.


Thus the early buyers of bitcoin may have cashed out their excess holdings....






At this moment in time:


Bitcoin $1156 (mtgox.com)


Gold $1241 (Kitco.com)


35 Tulip bulbs £2.49 (diy.com/nav/garden/grow-your-own/bulbs/tulips)

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There are no bitcoin ETFs - I had a look.




Dan concludes by noting that any successful investment inevitably gets Wall Street interested, with a Bitcoin ETF in the works. In the end, Dan advises that investors be careful about Bitcoin and its prospects, but to learn the lessons it has to teach you about investing more generally.


If anyone remembers the mania in Iomega and The Motley Fool boards.....

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Bitcons are trading higher on lighter volume ... update




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With the digital currency's value rising sharply, 58 per cent of day's global volume done in yuan as non-professionals wade into new market


> SCMP: http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1371767/chinese-renminbi-dominates-global-bitcoin-trade-researchers


The yuan accounts for most of the trade in bitcoins as trading of the unregulated digital currency soars in the world's second-largest economy.

By noon yesterday, about 58 per cent of the global trade during the preceding 24 hours occurred on exchanges trading the mainland currency, according to open-source research project BitcoinAverage.

bitcoin_net.jpg?itok=a6Gq36zlA Bitcoin logo is seen at the window of a restaurant that accepts Bitcoin, a form of digital currency, as payment in San Francisco. Photo: Reuters

According to the aggregator of market data, China's trading volume in the period reached 827 million yuan (HK$1 billion).

Trades in US dollars account for roughly 37 per cent of global volume. Trades in euros account for slightly less than 2 per cent. No other currency accounts for more than one per cent of trade, according to BitcoinAverage.

Fortunes have already been made in China via the virtual currency. The value of a bitcoin in China soared 861.02 per cent from 844.75 yuan on September 3, the earliest data available on BitcoinAverage, to its peak value last Friday of 7273.47 yuan.

The virtual currency was trading at between 6,300 and 6,400 yuan on Tuesday morning on major Chinese exchanges.

Unlike with previous virtual currencies, China’s deputy central bank governor Yi Gang said last month that bitcoins could be freely traded, although the government would not accept them as currency.

A provincial subsidiary of state-run China Telecom even said it would accept payment in the virtual currency. Jiangsu Telecom said last week it would accept the virtual currency for pre-orders of a new Samsung phone.

“China is driving the volume predominantly for two reasons: speculation and mining,” said Zennon Kapron, managing director fo the Shanghai-based financial advisory firm Kapronasia. “Returns on Bitcoin this year have surpassed real estate which previously was the best performing mainstream asset class in China, which has naturally attracted more attention and further driven the price up.”

Kapron said it was natural for China, the world's biggest manufacturer of bitcoin mining equipment, to play a large role in the trade.

Li Lin, head of the Beijing-based Huobi trading platform, told the Beijing Morning Post last week that the majority of new bitcoin traders are women. Another trend is the popularisation of the currency beyond IT geeks and financial experts, she said, adding that a third of the trades on Huobi were made by large investors trading more than a million yuan. Li did not reply to requests for comment.

Another trend seen is the popularisation of the currency beyond IT geeks and financial experts, she said, adding that a third of the trades on Huobi were made by large investors trading more than a million yuan. Li did not reply to requests for comment.

Liu Jun, the Shenzhen-based CEO of the GoX trading platform told the Posthe agreed that non-professionals were increasingly trading in bitcoins, but that men still dominated trades on GoX by about 80 per cent.

The trading platform, which launched in June and is registered in Hong Kong, has had up to 20,000 users, who on average invest between 20,000 and 100,000 yuan in the virtual currency, he said. The youngest trader on his platform is 20 years old, while the oldest is in his forties.

On Monday, the platform registered a turnover of 64 million yuan in 10,000 trades, he said.

The 30-year old software engineer from Changsha, Hunan province, said bitcoins were bound to rise in popularity as they offered a democratic alternative to the stock exchange. “There are so many manoeuvres behind the scenes determining the trading of stocks in China, whereas bitcoins offer a fair trade,” he said.

Liu Tao, the founder of the Shanghai-based BitXF trading platform, said he noticed more non-professionals are entering the trade. "In the past, the questions asked by customers were professional, recently we are confronted with more and more simple questions," he said. "Many investors don't really understand bitcoins."

Liu said he expected some market correction in the near future, but was optimistic about the rise of the virtual currency within the next two to three years. Liu's trading platform has a turnover of about 200 bitcoins per day on average, he said.

GoX's Liu Jun estimated that between one and two million Chinese have so far traded in bitcoins. These numbers are bound to increase in smaller cities if the Chinese government did not intervene, he said.

The trade, however, not only entails regulatory risks. The first known case of a bitcoin exchange going bust made headlines last month. The closure of Global Bond Ltd. (GBL) left hundreds of investors with combined losses of 25 million yuan.

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Bitcoins in China - Report from Bill Still



+ A Bitcoin-positive documentary on Chinese TV

+ A Bitcoin promotion via mobile phones


Chinese Govt may be encouraging its use as an alternative to the US Dollar

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(There was also some news from China in the last 24 hours)


: The interesting thing is, when the BTC price touched that of Gold, the price fell back - almost as if people were switching out of BTC into Gold:
The Last 10 days - Bitcoins ... Chart-10d

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IS THIS THE NEWS that will burst the bubble ??


BITCOINS, were front page, Headline news (in the SCMP) in Hong Kong today !


Surge in use of bitcoin leads to ban on China trading

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said no financial institutions, payment agencies or insurers should price products and services in bitcoin, nor are they allowed to trade or provide bitcoin exchange or settlement services.

"China has become the world's biggest trader of the virtual currency, accounting for more than half the global transactions, according to BTC China"

. . .

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said no financial institutions, payment agencies or insurers should price products and services in bitcoin, nor are they allowed to trade or provide bitcoin exchange or settlement services. The announcement follows a near 90-fold increase in the virtual currency's value since it was created in 2009.

The rally has been caused largely by demand in China, with traders from mainland banks joining technology fans and speculators to invest in bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price slumped to below US$1,000 on major trading platforms after the announcement. It was trading at US$980 in the afternoon on BitStamp, down sharply from US$1,138.58 the day before.

On the Shanghai-based BTC China exchange, it was trading at 4,785 yuan (HK$6,053), compared with 7,050 yuan on Wednesday.

"Bitcoin is a bubble that will burst sooner or later," said Zhao Xijun, a finance professor at Renmin University. "Firewalls are necessary to separate risks in the virtual world from the real economy before it's too late."


> http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1374052/surge-use-bitcoin-leads-ban-china-trading

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