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SPDR GOLD Holdings : Update and Charts


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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/china-increases-gold-holdings-57-one-month-first-official-update-2009

 

 

China Increases Gold Holdings By 57% "In One Month" In First Official Update Since 2009

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/17/2015 14:36 -0400

By way of background, the reason why everyone has been so focused on Chinese official gold holdings is that there has been no official update to the gold inventory of the world's biggest nation, which have been fixed at 33.89 million oz since April 2009, a little over 1000 tons. In other words, the PBOC's gold inventory has been "unchanged" for over 6 years which is in stark contrast to the ravenous buying of physical gold China has been engaging in for the past 5 years.

 

As we further noted in April, "with China disclosing so little about its hoard, finding out how much the central bank has in its vaults is of increasing interest to traders. Confirmation of bigger holdings would signal the importance of the metal as a reserve asset and boost market sentiment, TD Securities’ Melek said. At a time when prices are languishing, the buying could give support, said Suki Cooper, director of commodities at Barclays Plc in New York."

 

In a rare comment on gold, Yi Gang, the central bank’s deputy governor, said in March 2013 that the country could only invest as much as 2 percent of its foreign-exchange holdings in gold because the market was too small. The press office of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment sent on April 14.

 

Well, the long awaited moment has finally arrived and this morning, after a 6 year delay when, China finally admitted that it had been misrepresenting its gold holdings for a very long time, when it announced that its gold holdings had increased from 38.89 million to 53.31 million troy ounces, a 57% increase "in one month."

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The amounts to a new grand total of 1658 metric tons, an increase of 604 tons from the 1054 reported last in 2009 and which according to the PBOC was also the May 2015 total.

 

What is surprising about this release are three things:

 

First, while we welcome some long overdue "transparency", the number is well below official expectations. This is what Bloomberg said previously: "The People’s Bank of China may have tripled holdings of bullion since it last updated them in April 2009, to 3,510 metric tons, says Bloomberg Intelligence, based on trade data, domestic output and China Gold Association figures. A stockpile that big would be second only to the 8,133.5 tons in the U.S."

 

Second, China has finally admitted that its official gold numbers were fabricated (alongside all other official data released from the communist country) as it is impossible the PBOC could have bought 600 tons of gold in the open market in June when the price of the yellow metal actually dropped by 2%.

 

Third, and perhaps most important, is the reasoning behind the increase. While in April it was expected that China will be focused on SDR acceptance of the Yuan, that was subsequently refuted when it became clear that the IMF has no intention of making such a decision any time soon. So why make the disclosure?

  • PBOC SAYS GOLD RESERVE INCREASE AIMS TO ENSURE SECURITY
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  • 4 weeks later...
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But note that it's not gold gold but rather shares in SPDR Gold Trust

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-16/billionaire-stanley-drucknemiller-loads-gold-makes-it-his-largest-position-first-tim

 

Billionaire Stanley Drucknemiller Loads Up On Gold, Makes It His Largest Position For First Time Ever

 

A smart guy.

This is a good omen for Gold bugs

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GOLD related remarks:

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/wednesday-update-505/#comments

 

The BIG MOVES in the Gold market

 

Following on from some blog remarks about the gold sector I have some data on gold stocks that may be of interest to some posters and readers of TC’s site. The data I’m using is from 1942 to the present. The index referenced is Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI). From 17 September 1993, for more accurate measurements, I have used the Gold Miner’s Index ($GDM), which appears to be the proxy for the BGMI since that time. On 28 April 1942 the INDU put in a major bear market low. This was exactly 5 weeks before the Battle of Midway and 2 days after Adolf Hitler, in a major rant in the Reichstag, announced that he had bestowed the powers of “Law Lord” upon himself allowing him to remove any military officer, judicial official or civil servant unilaterally without any due process afforded to the unfortunate individual. Like the INDU, the BGMI also put in a major bear market low in 1942 after a 65% decline from 1939. After a 1,100% advance from 1942 to 1968 there have been 8 serious declines in the BGMI/$GDM of 60% or more. These declines and the bull market advances that followed are listed below:
Bear 1968-1969 (-60%)
Bull 1969-1974 (+600%)
Bear 1974-76 (-68%)
Bull 1976-1980 (+550%)
Bear 1980-1982 (-72%)
Bull 1982-1983 (+180%)
Bear 1983-1986 (-60%)
Bull 1986-1987 (+150%)
Bear 1996-2000 (-77%)
Bull 2000-2008 (+766%)
Bear 2008-2008 (-72%)
Bull 2008-2011 (+315%)
Bear 2011-2015 (-80% so far)

.

One thing that catches the attention is the bull market rallies are very rewarding if your timing is right. Another thing not evident in the above bull/bear data is the BGMI/$GDM wave count from 1942 to 2011. It looks very good as 5 waves completed (see chart link below). Avi Gilbert has written about a new gold sector bull to take over from the one “that started in 1940’s”. Looking closer at the chart below I can see where he’s coming from. Thus it is not surprising the decline from 2011 is 80% with probably more to go. 85% or even 90% would not surprise me given this particular decline is correcting a 69 year bull market that marched up 10,800%. My thinking is the low will be just months away and being on board at a potentially historical bottom would be a great opportunity. How can a 69 year bull be corrected in just over 4 years? Is there precedence? Yes there is. Remember, the 90% decline in the $INDU from 1929 took less than 3 years.
http://www.bgmi.us/
I have one reservation about the upcoming low in gold stocks. Gilbert has the 2011 high in gold and gold stocks as an irregular B wave. If he is right we should have 5 waves down for C wave and we are in “4 of 5” by my thinking (and I believe this is also Gilbert’s best guess at this stage). So we are nearly there. The reservation revolves around the irregular B wave. I’ve tried to count the “B wave” 2008 to 2011 rally in gold and gold stock indices and I can see 3 waves up to verify a corrective wave but I can also count it as a “5” which would mean the sector will need a 5-3-5 (ABC) for the correction. This is more in line with TC’s gold chart which, I think I am right in saying, is still looking for its Primary A bottom (with B and C still to come). As far as the gold majors are concerned (ABX, NEM & GG) they actually count much better as 3 waves up from 2008 to 2011. Martin Armstrong is also looking for a “historical low” in gold but don’t be fooled by the current rally as signalling the end of the bear just yet.
One other chart that I would like to post is a 30+ year chart showing the relationship between gold stocks and the broader share market (see below) which also moves from one extreme to another. Not surprisingly the author has labelled it as a “contrarians’s dream”.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3528

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  • 3 months later...

Prior : (06/26) : (07/31) (08/28) : (10/02) (10/30) : Change / Friday (12/11) alone ===== :
Gold : 1173.8 : 1095.0 : 1132.6 : 1137.6 : 1141.7 : =====> $1,073.7
GLD : 112.56 : 104.93 : 108.70 : 108.99 : 109.30 : ----- % / 103.11 : +0.56 : +0.56% / 6.75 M
GDX : $18.09 : $13.75 : $14.25 : $14.49 : $14.96 : ----- % / $14.38 : +0.17 : +1.20% / 40.92 M
Ratio : R6.222 : r7.631 : R7.628: R7.522 : r7.306 : ----- % / R7.170 (GLDx10.413 = $1,073.7)
Ratio: 16.07%: 13.10%: 13.11%: 13.29%: 13.69%: ----- % / 13.95% (GDX-x 74.67 = $1,073.7)
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.34 : $20.48 : $20.46 : $20.46 : ----- % / $19.61 : +0.15 : +0.77% : 4.29M
Spdr: 706.EE: 672.70 : 682.60 : 689.20 : 696.26 : ----- % / 634.63 = 20.41 mn oz. Gold stored
TLT- : 115.23 : 122.53 : 122.36 : 124.56 : 122.78 : ----- % / 123.76 : +1.92 : +1.58% : 11.73 M
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.937 : R9.256 : r9.133 : R9.299 : ----- % / r8.676 - NEW Low: 8.68
====

 

Big fall in SPRD's Gold holdings (-8.46%) since 10/30.

Meanwhile, Gold was down: - 5.96%

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  • 2 years later...

world-gold-reserves-july-2015-top-20.png

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 :
GLD : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8%: 125.33 : 126.96:
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 277.92 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2786.2 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 208.5%:
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 17.285 : 17.140 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $16.27 :
XLE- : $75.32 : $72.24 : - 4.09% : $74.97 : $77.42 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $64.30 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r20.75 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $3.200 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 196.06 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.220 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 346.25 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 420.50 :
DBA- : $19.97 : $18.76 : - 6.06% : $18.83 : $18.56 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73% : 9.47% :
D/xle : 0.2651 : 0.2596 : ====== : 0.2511 : 0.2397 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $90.90 :

======
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.610 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +1.0% : 834.86 : 828.96 : Oz.s held by SPDR Gold
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $24.01 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $34.94 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.90 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.51 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3428.9 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 158.16 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.23 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1848 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : 13,622 :
=====

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January 3, 2017 | 11:00 | Dubai

The World Official Gold Holdings, International Financial Statistics, with data updated in December 2016  reveals US as having the highest Gold reserves at 8133.5 tonnes. It far surpasses the 2nd and 3rd contenders in Germany and Italy. Asia is predictably lead by China at 1842.6 tonnes while India with 557.8 tonnes of Gold finds itself at 10th place.

Data are taken from the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS), December 2016 edition, and other sources where applicable. IFS data are two months in arrears, so holdings are as of October 2016 for most countries, September 2016 or earlier for late reporters.  The table does not list all gold holders: countries which have not reported their gold holdings to the IMF in the last six months are not included, while other countries are known to hold gold but they do not report their holdings publicly.

Gold-reserves.jpg

*The percentage share held in gold of total foreign reserves, as calculated by the World Gold Council. The value of gold holdings is calculated using the end of month LBMA Gold price published daily by ICE Benchmark Administration. In October 2016 the end of month gold price was $1272.

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  • 1 month later...

CENTRAL BANKS are Buying Gold

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  • The World Gold Council (WGC) reported this week that central banks bought around $5.8 billion worth of gold in the third quarter of this year, marking the biggest buying spree since 2015. Central banks largely buy gold in an effort to diversify their reserves. Since the yellow metal is a finite asset, as opposed to fiat currency, it can help economies stabilize amid times of economic turbulence. Hungary and Poland emerged recently as big gold buyers in an effort to shift away from the dollar-denominated financial system and brace for a potential currency risk as global inflation picks up.
  • The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) surveyed attendees at its annual gathering in Boston and results show that gold is forecast to climb 26 percent in the next year, up to $1,532 an ounce. According to George Milling-Stanley, head of global strategy at State Street Global Advisors, gold’s next significant resistance level is $1,350 an ounce and prices may test that level within six to 12 months. We’re now entering the historically strongest eight months for gold demand, with festivals in India and China, as well as Christmas and Valentine’s Day celebrations, writes Bloomberg. Perth Mint CEO Richard Hayes said in an interview at the LBMA last week that the recent stock selloff has reignited caution in many investors. Hayes also said that “if the midterms go badly for Trump, you’ll see a return to gold” because “a lot of Trump’s true believers are precious metals buyers.”

Threats

  • According to the WGC, demand for gold during India’s festival of Diwali may be moderate due to a lack of liquidity in the market, which has raised the country’s bullion prices. India, the world’s second largest consumer of gold after China, has seen imports on a declining trend due to the government’s efforts to curb its trade deficit. This is significant since the country must import almost all of its gold.

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-11-05/SWOT-Analysis-Election-Spotting.html

(By contrast, SPDR has been lightening up on its GOLD Holdings):

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :  11/08  :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1225.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 : 115.78 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.624 : R1.622 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00: +01.0%: 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23: 755est: 759.06 : 755.23 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $17.15 : $16.38 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.63 : $19.38 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $28.06 : $27.54 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $24.11 : $23.62 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.731 : r1.740 : R1.740 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.86 : $13.56 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.760 : 14.420 :

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