drbubb Posted May 12, 2014 Report Share Posted May 12, 2014 Greg Hunter interviews Fabian Calvo - on US Real Estate etc MP3: http://jaytaylormedia.com/media/taylor20140422-2.mp3 Bundy ranch discussion - US property for China? Is this the way the US keeps "its creditor" happy? "We need a financial Rambo to expose what is going on." In the long run, the US currency may be backed by property. The Fed has been buying back toxic Property-backed debt from China. The Fed is "lying about how much debt they are buying" Us Bankers are buying murdered to prevent a Financial Snowden coming forward Calvo sees US property as very risky - it's a Pump-and-Dump. Blackstone / Carrington cannot rent their RE at decent yields. So they are now selling off to subprime buyers, and planning... "You will see the US Real go buck wild..." in desperate last push. Real investors are scared to death of the imploding US dollar. In the next crisis "Everything will implode at once": R.E., USD, etc "We don't have sensible policy, or decent leadership. We are making the same mistakes (as 2005-8) all over again." MORE - about Sub-Prime 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 16, 2014 Report Share Posted May 16, 2014 Great Charts: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-15/homebuilder-confidence-plunges-12-month-lows For the 5th month in a row, homebuilder hope has missed expectations. At 45 (vs 49 expectations), this is the lowest the NAHB survey has been at since May 2013, catching down to the reality of home sales and mortgage applications. On the bright side, realtors can't help but feel thr turn is coming sometime soon - the "future" hope index rose to its highest since January as the "current" reality index drops to 12 month lows. Oops... Who could have seen that coming? As Hope collapses to home sales reality... As the West continues to tumble... Charts: Bloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted July 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Bumping this thread. The time is right to have a closer look at this sector now - a 2nd lower high just put in, by the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 Chinese Lead $92 Billion of U.S. Home Sales to Foreigners By John Gittelsohn Jul 8, 2014 Foreigners purchased $92.2 billion of U.S. homes in the 12 months through March, led by buyers from China, according to the National Association of Realtors. Spending by Chinese buyers soared 72 percent from a year earlier to $22 billion, with their purchases accounting for 24 percent of spending by international buyers, the trade association said today from Washington. Total investments by foreigners jumped 35 percent. Chinese buyers acquired 16 percent of houses sold to foreigners, up 4 percentage points, spurred by currency appreciation, rising affluence and concerns about an economic slowdown in the world’s most-populous country, the group said. “It’s just the beginning of a tidal wave,” Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, said in a telephone interview. “Large numbers of wealthy Chinese want to have property in the U.S. because they want to visit the U.S. and they want to diversify the wealth they accumulated in China to outside countries where they feel secure in their property rights.” Canadians bought the highest number of homes, accounting for 19 percent of residences sold to foreigners. That’s down from 23 percent a year earlier as U.S. home prices rose from a 2012 post-housing-bubble low and the Canadian dollar weakened. == > http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-08/chinese-lead-92-billion-of-u-s-home-sales-to-foreigners.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Member100 Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Have you shorted yet, Van ? Or did you buy puts? - Which ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Problems in luxury US housing... because of China ? = Clif High has predicted that the US housing market will crash soon after June 13th 2014 US Housing Market - Post June 13th, hits a [loosening] language structure that is multiply dimensional. Meanings of [loosening standards] (yet again), as well as [loosening (of laws?)], and [loosening] of the [damed inventory]. However, the result is being forecast as [opposite] what the [banksters] hope for. It will instead produce a [backlash (of prices?)] that will begin in the [south west] and is described as [sweeping/moving across] the [continent]. The [loosening] will NOT be a good thing over all, and is also cross linked over to [secrets revealed] where the [loosening (from banks)] will [expose] both [banksters] and [former banksters] with [piles (huge) of stolen wealth]. (6/3/2014) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/did-china-just-crush-us-housing-market Did China Just Crush The US Housing Market? ..... the marginal buyer in the US luxury housing segment was ... Chinese oligarchs ...... ..... all the relentless move higher in ultra luxury properties prices was simply a recycling of China's hot money, which ..... merely ended up in US real estate..... ..."how?" ....it has to do with officially sanctioned "money laundering" services by ... two of China's largest banks: Bank of China and ... Citic..... PBOC not only was aware of these secretive and law-breaking deals, but was effectively encouraging them.... ....why would the PBOC agree to quietly bless this activity which it has, at least openly, blasted vocally in the past? Simple - to keep inflation in check. Assuming there is the anticipated resulting backlash and crackdown on Chinese banks, .... this could well be the worst possible news not only for Chinese inflation .... but also for the ultra-luxury housing in the US. = So what happens next? Assuming there is the anticipated resulting backlash and crackdown on Chinese banks, which will finally enforce the $50K/year outflow limitation, this could well be the worst possible news not only for Chinese inflation, which suddenly - no longer having a convenient outlet for the unprecedented liquidity formed in the country every month - is set to soar, but also for the ultra-luxury housing in the US. Because without the Chinese bid in a market in which the Chinese are the biggest marginal buyer scooping up real estate across the land, sight unseen, and paid for in laundered cash (which the NAR blissfully does not need to know about due to its AML exemptions), watch as suddenly the 4th dead cat bounce in US housing since the Lehman failure rediscovers just how painful gravity really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Comment from the article / above Thought Processor If China begins to limit capital flight in earnest then kiss the Major RE Bull Market good bye. London, Canada, and major US cities especially on the west coast plus NYC and even Boston will get hit hard. Some 30%+ of RE transactions in these markets are Chinese buyers w/ cash. The impact of any real Chinese capital controls on RE prices in these areas would be substantial. My guess is that Chinese capital controls will happen. Likely because capital would then have to be utilyzed inward toward China's own domestic RE markets where there are now large and growing problems. If they limit capital flight then those funds will seek internal investment options and RE is one of the few people there have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 12, 2014 Report Share Posted July 12, 2014 "Clif High has predicted that the US housing market will crash soon after June 13th 2014"* After June 13th - like End of June / Early July, could prove to be an excellent call for a Top HGX / PHLX Housing Index (INDEX)... update : 5-yr-Chart // PHM-5yrs : PHM-1yr : PHM-vs-HGX-4yrs *New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19239 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 20, 2014 Report Share Posted July 20, 2014 False Housing Wealth = 40% of UK Wealth is "False Wealth" says the FT> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d5c6ed8-0c0a-11e4-a096-00144feabdc0.htmlThe link doesn't work for me, so here's a summary that I picked up from another website:"Here's the short general idea in my own words...They say more than £3th of assets = 40 percent of UK wealth, are what planning restrictions have added to house prices, they are the ransom that recent buyers and renters are forced to pay to homeowners, this is plunder, from younger to older, from poorer to richer. But if we let people build more houses we turn the false wealth into real wealth of houses and flats, improving living conditions, creating jobs, and making society fairer and more equal."Hmm.I don't entirely understand that.I do "get" that ultra-low interest rates can Pump up house prices to false levels, persuading people that they are wealthier than they really are. We saw that in the US, and many people went out and spent that wealth on things they did not need. When home prices fell, any debt they took on secured by false wealth was still there, when the wealth melted away.I do not get how borrowing against false wealth and spending much of it on home construction is much better than on other items, except that housing assets might be somewhat more durable than many other assets. In any case, there is likely to be a Debt problem when the bubble bursts. = UK US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted September 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2014 This sector is continuing to underperform the broader market and is starting to look like a very sick dog. A break below 440 will be a clear sign of a long term turn. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/industry/bigcharts-com/industrychart.asp?timeframe=OneYear&compidx=&symb=&industrySymb=DJUSHB&x=16&y=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 30, 2014 Report Share Posted September 30, 2014 "A break below 440 will be a clear sign of a long term turn." http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/industry/bigcharts-com/industrychart.asp?timeframe=OneYear&compidx=&symb=&industrySymb=DJUSHB&x=16&y=9 Right. I think we have seen an important break in PHM already ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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