DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Comments

[drbubb]

Philippines PROPERTY CYCLE:

On another chat I posted this: I said:

"I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. 

Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market.  And ALI peaked in mid-2019. 

The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ...

Update ALI & CHI data

Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020,

The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.

[drbubb]

PHL Property Cycle.  Low at end of 2024 still looks most likely

I just updated the chart.  Looks like we still need another 2 years or so to go in the correction

CHI-ALI update: ALI: 33.05. 39.8 PER / CHI: 6.12, 23.9 PER,  ALI-to-CHI: Ratio-5.4x

[drbubb]

ALI-CHI Cycle... LT update : ALI last:  28,65, YrL: 22.35, mid-July'22

( I like this chart because it helps to Highlight the long term E-Wave position - expected Low is Dec.2024, +/- 1 year, so 2023-2025.)

ALI-CHI Long term cycle may have bottomed.  And if it has, Cyclical Low in Physical market is typically within 6-12 months after that.  But even if that has happened, the market may need more time: months or years, to put in a "proper" more saucer-like bottom. (the recent low in 2022, may turn out to be like the V-bottom of late 1998.)

 

[drbubb]

There are THREE "MARKET" PRICES now: 

1. REPLACEMENT:   NEW, Listed prices from developers
2. COMPARABLES:  Secondhand prices, where the seller is in no hurry, and can await for buyers to obtain bank finance.  (Approx. Equal to Zonal Valuations, and sometimes higher, if the Zonal has not been adjusted recently.)
3. YIELD/ RENTS:    Cash prices, where Seller is in a hurry, and cannot wait 3-6 months for buyers to get bank finance. Distressed Cash Buyers typically seek a yield in line, or higher Than one they can get investing in REITS, or in government bonds - so at least 6-7%

(There are now huge differences between the #1 and #3 price.)

(In most countries, #2 are what is considered “Fair Market Value.” - but not in Phl. haha.)

[webmaster]

CONDO Price in Gold Oz.

CONDO IN GOLD?     ...    Per Gemini, Google's AI,  I asked how many oz. of Gold for a 1 BR Condo, and got THIS response just now:    "Individual Condo Variation: The price of a 1BR condo in Makati can vary wildly depending on factors like:
Location within Makati: Some areas are more expensive than others.
Size and Features: A larger unit with a view or amenities will cost more.
Building Quality and Age: Newer, more luxurious buildings command higher prices.
To get an idea, you'd need to:

Find the current price of gold per ounce. You can easily find this on financial news websites like Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance. Determine the price of a 1BR condo in Makati. Look at real estate listings on websites like Lamudi, Property24, or through a local real estate agent.

EXAMPLE (Hypothetical):
Let's say the current price of gold is $2000 per ounce. (now $2670)

Let's say the average price of a 1BR condo in Makati is ₱10,000,000 (Philippine Pesos).-( too low?)

Convert PHP to USD: Assuming a current exchange rate of ₱55 to 1 USD, the condo price in USD would be $181,818.

Calculate ounces of gold: Divide the condo price in USD by the price of gold per ounce: $181,818 / $2000 = 90.91 ounces of gold."

Update: My own numbers near ye-2024, were:  

Condo price: 14.75 Million / Gold price in PHP ($2681 x58.64= Ph 157k per oz.) = 94 oz. per Condo  ... you can  update yesterday: (Gold $2650 x58.70= Php 155.6k per oz, and 94.8 Gold oz. per Makati  condo.  

The benchmark I used was a 60 sqm 1BR.