drbubb Posted September 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver : : : : : China: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?) Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz HK: 2899 : 1051 : hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : YL : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv ============================================== ================================= Coming Silver Squeeze - Video just out A mid-Sept. Low in Silver may soon be in place, and Chinese demand for physical silver may lead a price squeeze. It could start this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 Silver having trouble hold its gains today But meantime, GDXJ has finally "popped it head over" the 208p/8d MA : GDXJ-chart That's good, since GDXJ is often the best Leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 An update from the Elliot Wave blog: Silver : "At this stage I expect Silver should end this first wave down next week. The short term target is 18.335. Thereafter, a second wave correction should unfold which may be very deep." GDX : btw. I notice Caldaro has changed his Silver wave-count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FriarN Posted September 16, 2014 Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 Big drops, he/she is seeing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 That GDX Target suggests something like the end of Gold shares. History : GDX-5years I cannot believe that we will see below $15. However, anything is possible - I suppose. (Where might the USD and other commodities need to go, to see that?) GDX - versus CRB and DBA ... 5-year : since-2008 5 years === === Some commodity price drops continued yesterday: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx BIG LOSERS were: - Cotton : - 3.4% - Coffee : - 1.5% - Russell 2000 : - 1.2% - Orange Juice : - 1.0% - Sugar : - 0.9% - Wheat : - 0.4% ====== However, CRB itself : 281.84 : -0.064 : -0.02% And DBA : -0.08 : - 0.31% Big Rises in Soybean Oil, Oats (both up 2%) and Corn, provided balance So a pretty neutral day, in the Big Picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 KITCO Articles U.S. Dollar Strength Mining’s Biggest Hurdle Right Now – Silver Wheaton’s Randy Smallwood - Kitco News, Sep 15 2014 7:27PM Comex Ticks Modestly Higher On Pre-FOMC Short Covering In Thin Trade - Kitco News, Sep 15 2014 2:00PM Gold's Touchdown Pass: Will Janet Yellen Fumble On Rates? - Kitco Video News, Sep 15 2014 3:57PM China Weighing On Commodity Currencies - Kitco, Monday September 15, 2014 08:57 === === "There’s a little bit of short covering – maybe dealers flattening up," said Jim Comiskey, senior account executive with Archer Financial Services. "Volume is incredibly light." The key event that the market is waiting for this week is a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday, to be followed by a press conference from Chair Janet Yellen. Observers have said this meeting may be more important than usual as the Fed winds down its purchases of government bonds, known as quantitative easing, and with market participants wondering how far into the future before policy-makers start hiking the federal funds rate, assuming the economic recovery continues. "It’s an important (meeting) because Janet Yellen is supposed to add color as to QE and everything else," said one trader. . . . "The challenge is we measure silver and gold in U.S. dollars and right now, when you look at worldwide currencies, I don’t see anything that looks like a cure in terms of long-term strength and stability in fiscal management, with respect to the U.S. dollar," Smallwood told Kitco News at the 25th Denver Gold Forum. "It looks better than any other currency in the world. "That’s the biggest hurdle the industry is facing right now and I see that continuing for the near-term - I see it’s a good foundation where we are right now," he added. With the gold and silver mining industry having just gone through a cost cutting exercise with lower gold prices 18 months ago, if prices continue their downward trend, miners may have to look at their metals prices for mines, projects and reserves again. "They’re going to be forced to," Smallwood said. "In a market where we’re having quite a bit of volatility, I think we’re at a firm base where third and fourth quartile miners just can’t produce at lower prices. "It all comes down to optimisation and trying to improve the margins and economics – I think it’s good for the market to do this every once in a while because it forces trimming of the fat." Asked if gold prices could dip even lower and stay at those levels, Smallwood said it would be too tough on some miners. "I don’t think it can much lower because of what it costs to produce the metal and I think you’re going to have that supply side support for that, but I also don’t see anything in the near-term that will dramatically weaken the U.S. dollar," he said. "I always believed the best time to move into any type of space is at the bottom of a cycle and I’m very confident that we may not be at the bottom of gold and silver prices but we’re very close to it." . . . The big story overnight came out of China, which posted numbers last seen during the financial crisis. Industrial Production saw a print of 6.9% vs 8.8 expectations. This was a major a huge deceleration. Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment were also below market expectations. This is obviously an issue for commodities (brent crude hit a 26-month low) and commodity related currencies like the Aussie dollar, which continues to trade heavily even after last week’s 300pts drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 GDXJ / Gold Juniors closed above the 208p/8d MA... but not with huge enthusiasm GDXJ - 6-mos : 10days : Last : $38.54 +$1.05 : +2.80% / vol.: 9.37 mn ...adding an Elliottwave Target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 Chinese Gold Demand 39t In Week 36, YTD 1290t (Ave: 35.7 t /wk ) Robust Chinese gold demand is keeping up its pace. Chinese wholesale demand, measured by withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults, was 39 tonnes in week 36 (September 1 – 5). Year to to date 1290 tonnes has been withdrawn from the SGE vaults. == > http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/chinese-gold-demand-39t-week-36-ytd-1290t Notice how High PREMIUMS are associated with Gold price Lows WOW ! Notice that Silver backwardation, and high Premiums are associated with Silver Lows This supports the argument in my new Video: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 Charts show potential for Shanghai Silver Squeeze : : When AG was: $19.60: SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683.0 / 35.274 = $19.36 (Discount of 20-25 cents?) Now: with AG: $18.67: SGE: 4,130 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 671.5 / 35.274 = $19.04 (Premium of 34 cents) ================ (1) Hey, what's going on with Shanghai silver today? ... update (2) [/url] (3) The Dollar's strength has gone right to (and a few day past) the usual Seasonal Turning point:Janet Yellen may surprise people this week in her comments, if she has taken note of the deflation in commodity prices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 Is the Pound headed back to those old Lows (at FXB-$1.36)? ... We may know soon FXB / Sterling ... update : 10-days A "YES" vote on Thursday, could help complete the rollover, and break of support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 Actually, Sterling (FXB) has just been riding with the Euro (FXE) FXB-versus-FXE ... 3-mos : 6-mos : 12-mos In fact, over 6-mos, and 12-mos, Sterling has been stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2014 More or less on (the latest) schedule... Precious metals and related stocks are looking better GDXJ : $39.20 +$0.66 : +1.72% GDX- : $24.04 +$0.13 : +0.54% SLV - : $18.04 +$0.12 : +0.67% s/gdx : 75.04% : See Chart Below Silver : $18.82 +$0.17 Ratio : 1.043 : Premium: 4.32% SgAg: 4,138 /216.94 : $19.07 : +$0.25 GLD- : 119.11 +$0.47 : +0.40% SPY- : 200.09 +$1.11 : +0.56% RATIO: SLV-to-GDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 PRICES and The Fed (1) Asian Stocks Rally With Copper as Chinese Bonds Advance Bloomberg - 22 minutes ago Asian stocks rose, halting the regional index's longest slump in 12 years, while industrial metals climbed and Chinese money-market rates slid as the country's central bank boosts stimulus. (2) Financial markets awaiting any Fed signal on rates MiamiHerald.com - 41 minutes ago WASHINGTON -- Financial markets are awaiting the end of a Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday to see whether the Fed sends any clearer signal about the timing of an interest rate... . . . Since March, the Fed has said it expects to keep this rate near zero for a "considerable time" after it stops buying Treasurys and mortgage bonds. The bond purchases have been intended to keep long-term rates down to support the economy. But the purchases are set to end in November. So the Fed may soon want to use some phrasing other than "considerable time" to signify when it might start raising rates. It could sub out that phrase in this week's statement. Or it could wait until its next meeting in October. Investors will also parse updated economic forecasts that the Fed will release Wednesday for any further clues to a rate increase. Most economists think the Fed will raise rates starting around mid-2015. But as the U.S. economy has strengthened, speculation has intensified about whether it might do so sooner, perhaps by March. With job growth solid, manufacturing and construction growing and unemployment at a near-normal 6.1 percent, many analysts think the Fed is edging closer to a rate increase ==Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/09/17/4352776/financial-markets-awaiting-any.html#storylink=cpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 Commodity Prices (1) Commodity price slump is a matter of perspective Sydney Morning Herald -Sep 11, 2014 Commodity prices may have come under pressure this year, but they are still 115 per cent above their 1990s average, with iron ore and oil up over 500 per cent, according to a long-term analysis of commodity prices by HSBC. But taking an even long-term view back to the 19th century, commodity prices are actually about normal, HSBC found. In the future, sugar and meat prices will increase sharply, oil will go up further, and metal prices will remain strong, the bank's economists predict. The HSBC analysis, More Super Less Cycle, took a short, medium and long-term long at the prices of global commodities, coupled with a near and medium term outlook. In the short term, commodity prices have fallen by 18 per cent since the 2011 peak, the analysis noted. In the medium term prices have increased 115 per cent since the 1990s. But in the long term, commodity prices are just below the 1865 to 2010 average. "Historical comparisons reveal that commodity prices are not exceptionally high right now, but rather, they were historically low in the 1980s and 1990s. Indeed, a long run comparison suggests that commodity prices are currently around their 150-year average in inflation-adjusted terms." Sugar and meat prices set for big increaseThe Land Newspaper -Sep 11, 2014 But in the first decade of the 21st century developing economies – such as China and India – were the key drivers of global growth and their main needs were better infrastructure and housing – commodity-intensive sectors. "Initially this ramp-up in commodity demand saw a sharp rise in commodity prices as strong demand was met only be weak supply," said the report. "Supply is now keeping up with growth in demand. But despite this growth in supply, commodity prices remain high as there are few commodities that have seen an excessive supply response." Since the 1990s, iron ore, oil, gas, tin, fishmeal, lead, copper, wool, nickel and uranium had the strongest growth. Iron ore prices increased seven-fold and oil six-fold. Soft logs, olive oil, sugar, tea, lamb, sawn wood, cotton, hard logs and aluminium were cheaper. (2) Commodity ETF Flows: Investors Buy GLD, SLV Despite Falling Prices Seeking Alpha (registration)-10 hours ago Disclaimer: Data provided by ETF.com. All data as of 6 a.m. Eastern the date of publication. Data is believed to be accurate; however, transient ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 Gold Demand In India Triples As China Launches Global Gold Bourse Tomorrow Posted by: GoldCore Post date: 09/17/2014 - 07:34 The Death Of The Indian and Chinese Gold Markets Has Been Greatly Exaggerated ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 Dow and Dollar like Fed Talk, but not Gold... As the Fed proceeds to end Bond-buying : : Dow closes at record high as Fed says rates to stay low USA TODAY - 22 minutes ago The Dow jumped to a record close Wednesday after the Federal Reserve reaffirmed that a key short-term interest rate will stay near zero for a "considerable time" after its bond-buying program ends next month. Dow closes at all-time high after Fed says it will keep interest rates low New York Daily News Australian dollar slumps on US Fed speech Sydney Morning Herald Opinion:DOLLAR RALLIES AFTER THE FED: Here's What You Need To Know Business Insider == == The Federal Reserve renewed a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable time" and repeated concerns over slack in the labor market, standing firm against calls to overhaul its policy statement. Many economists and traders had expected the central bank to alter the rate guidance it has provided since March, given generally improving data on the economy's performance. But the Fed repeated its assurance that rates would stay ultra-low for a "considerable time" after a bond-buying stimulus program wraps up. In a statement on Wednesday after a two-day meeting, it announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly purchases, leaving the program on course to be shuttered next month. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee also repeated its assessment that a "significant" amount of slack remains in the labor market, a further sign it is no rush to raise benchmark borrowing costs. "On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed ..." the FOMC said in its statement. == http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-reserve-pledges-keep-interest-rates-near-zero-n205566 The Fed seems more focused on the (rigged) unemployment stats, than the transparent (weak!) commodity prices. Let's see the market takes this over the next 1-2 days. A key thing to watch will be the USD, if its strength continues, price deflation may too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 FXE / Euro made a new low ... update Volume was reasonably heavy. Let's see how much follow-through during the rest of the week FXB / Sterling ( chart ) held nicely above the Lows Meantime, Gold-in-FXE is hanging up... near the top of the channel Gold-in-FXY (Yen) is also strong, and may be ready to move higher GDXJ in-FXE is also near the top of a channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2014 DXY / Traded-weighted Dollar is on the Top of a channel... (could fade, possibly) DXY ... update : FXE : FXB DXY / USD - the Big Resistance should be near 85 - prior top was 84.96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yesterday's Strong Dollar brought a Takedown in the Precious Metals complex Shanghai Silver Squeeze : : When AG was: $19.60: SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683.0 / 35.274 = $19.36 (Discount of 20-25 cents?) Now: with AG: $18.46: SGE: 4,107 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 667.8 / 35.274 = $18.93 (Premium of 47 cents) 47 cents Premiun?! - that's a 77 cent Swing ! - from the 25 Discount previously seen !! ==================================== GDXJ / etf for Gold Juniors ... 6-mos-chart ETF-: Wed.Cl: change: %chg / Low-OD : Off-Low GDXJ : $37.60 - $1.52 : -3.89% / $37.27 : + 0.89% GDX- : $23.43 - $0.57 : -2.38% / $23.39 : + 0.17% SLV - : $17.77 - $0.19 : -1.00% / $17.74 : + 0.17% - A Nice Double Bottom area ! s/gdx : 75.84% : See Chart Below Silver : $18.55 - $0.15 : -0.80% : Ratio : 1.044 : Premium: 4.39% SgAg: 4,107 /216.94 : $18.93 : +$0.38 GLD- : 117.54 - $1.29 : -1.09% : 117.50 : + 0.03% $Gold : $1224.1 -11.5 : -0.93% : SPY- : 200.77 +$0.27 : +0.13% : DXY- : 84.750 +0.530 : +0.62% : ======================== Note : the SLV low on Wed. was 1-cent above the 2013 Low of $17.75 - A good area for a Double Bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 CURRENCIES : Strongest to Weakest, since 6/30/2014 DXY - and Key Currencies ... update : no lines ========================== FX - : YrEnd'13 : +chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : + chg% DXY : 80.035 : +10.00% : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +10.00% GLD : 116.12 : +10.00% : 128.04 : / 117.54 : +10.00% SLV. : $18.71 : +10.00% : $ 20.25 : / $17.77 : +10.00% ==== FXE : 135.99 : +10.00% : 135.12 : / 126.89 : +10.00% ... etc: Updated Figures below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 SILVER & Gold : Opening Drops Reversed, as the USD falls "Overnight" price as low as $18.28 (/1.04 = $17.58 : SLV Equiv.) Bitcoin : Still in the Down-channel :=======Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hoursBTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos ================Gold / USD / china gold // gdx : n s a : : : AG - T + D / Calculations : : 3-days> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htmCalculations:AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg)/ CNY exch. Rate/ 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents)============== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 THIS made me laugh -- especially today Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Scottish Independence = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YkLPxQp_y0 = All the issues... in just 15 minutes (haha) = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 (FX numbers updated below): CURRENCIES : Strongest to Weakest, since 6/30/2014 DXY - and Key Currencies ... update : no lines ========================== FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg% DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 % GLD : 116.12 :+10.27% : 128.04 : / 117.54 : - 8.20 % SLV. : $18.71 : +8.23 % : $ 20.25 : / $17.77 : - 5.02 % ==== FXE : 135.99 : - 0.64 % : 135.12 : / 126.89 : - 6.09 % FXB : 163.30 : +3.11 % : 168.38 : / 160.06 : - 4.94 % FXY : $92.76 : +3.76 % : $ 96.25 : / $89.97 : - 3.01 % FXA : $89.43 : +5.58 % : $ 94.42 : / $89.77 : - 4.92 % ==== RBL : 32.922 : - 3.25 % : 33.987 : / 38.419 : -13.04 % CNY : 6.0557 : - 2.45 % : 6.2042 : / 6.1414 : +1.01 % INR. : 61.861 : +2.90 % : 60.065 : / 60.951 : - 1.48 % BRL : 2.3618 : - 6.35 % : 2.2118 : / 2.3583 : - 6.62 % Bric. : 1.0000 : - 2.29 % : 0.9710 : / 0.9221 : - 5.03 % ========== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Where's the Silver? Not in the US... though America uses it, in manufacturing One thing we don't really hear anymore is "geopolitical risk". The world is so screwed up in so many places, it's easier to try and forget about the woes of the world, or so it feels. US : Silver holdings, and relationship to Debt etc. 1/ 2/ 3/ == > http://srsroccoreport.com/the-collapse-of-u-s-silver-stocks-as-public-debt-skyrockets/the-collapse-of-u-s-silver-stocks-as-public-debt-skyrockets/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 The Dollar Dropped yesterday - But Gold and Silver hardly moved Maybe this is why ... CRB -vs-DBA ... update ETF-: $-Last : Change : %-chg : Volume : DXY : 84.352 : - 0.289 : - 0.34% : n/a GLD : 117.78 : +$0.24 : +0.20% : 5.27 M SLV : $17.77 : UNCH. : +0.00% : 6.28 M ==== CRB : 280.94: - $3.16 : - 1.11% : n/a . . . . : New Low for last 8 months DBA : $25.29 : - $0.23 : - 0.90% : 296,964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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