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Gold, PHM/Builders and the 4-6 months Cycle

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(from my May Diary):


Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:


Here's what I expected from the time of the "expected Dec. Cyclical low"


GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61



The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :


... continues: Low, Dec.15th: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90






Here's what happened - a Nice Rally !

But it may be petering out in April, and Gold (gold shares and silver), turned lower with bonds.

I anticipated this - and went short, selling Gold positions, and buying puts on TMF, a 3X etf linked to Bond prices


TMF - this chart was from mid-April

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:


TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :



So far, so good:

TMF HAS dropped - that's Bonds, Gold, Gold shares, silver...

Approximately 1% per day (!), over 9-10 days


TMF-etf ... update


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  • 2 weeks later...

NEXT WEEK may be too soon, but we are getting close®


Gold Intermediate Cycle : Surfing for a Wave Trough.
Surf City Thursday May 11, 2017

Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk




Based on Time and Price action I am seeing, I am expecting the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) for Gold and PM’s either in mid-May (this week or next?) or it could move into mid-June. Why the one month variation? That is about the time needed for one of Gold’s shorter term Trading Cycles (22-29 days Low to Low on average).

The Price and Time action on Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle, however, is clearer than the shorter Trading Cycles right now. Based on Gold’s last confirmed short term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL or DCL) in March near $1196, we are possibly on day 41 of TC3. I simply hate long counts like this and whenever I see them I often explore multiple possible counts as they are outside the norm. I will also say that long TC counts are often seen near the end of Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle.

As my normal timing band for Trading Cycle Lows (TL Low or TCL) is 22-29 days, this is either a very long Trading Cycle or perhaps we had a stealth TC Low in April on day 18. That would make this day 23 of TC4.

Bottom line, however, I don’t see Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle Low stretching out past mid-June.

My last point here is that picking the exact bottom is not always necessary as long as you moved much of your PM portfolio to Cash near the Cycle top (see my 2nd chart). If you look at my Portfolio Tracker, my last long trade in GDX was stopped out at $24.20 on February 10th, and the Intermediate High in GDX was two days earlier on Feb 8th, near $25 and change. I did not sell my entire portfolio back then but I sold a good bit of it over the next few days.


> more: http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-05-11/Gold-Intermediate-Cycle-Surfing-for-a-Wave-Trough.html

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  • 2 months later...

GOLD : I'm not impressed !


I think we saw a cyclical Low at the beginning of July, but I 'm not impressed by the volume or the Size of the Rally in GLD or GDX


Gold-in-Euros - has gone virtually "nowhere"







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  • 4 weeks later...

Seasonal Cycle


Nice action in GDX and GDXJ over the last week or so.


Yes, MORE impressive.


Perhaps the prior weakness (see "I'm not impressed") was mainly seasonal.


We are now in the strong season for Gold

I can see GLD running to $130 or higher over the next 4-5 weeks

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INDU to Gold still in Long term Slide?


Hmm if gold clears $1400, then that's a 2 year new high. North Korea's H-bomb detonation today could be the catalyst. This could be the end of the stock bull run, and a resumption of the dow/gold run to 1-1 ratio.








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  • 1 month later...

Currencies up as much as 14% (EUR) against the USD from the year-end 2016 Low


FX-All : 2017 : 2016-17 : 2015-17 : 2014-17 : 2013-17 : since 2010 : w/MA's :



FX-All : 2013-17 :


since 2010 : w/MA's :



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  • 2 months later...

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" ... prior : update


GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:


HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d : this chart was from end-Nov


TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 12/29/2017



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  • 1 month later...

Gold (GLD) has had a nice run relative to Bonds (TLT)

GLD-vsTLT ... update : 10-yr :


10-yr :


Ratio : GLD-toTLT ...


Gold needs to punch thru resistance, or get some help from Bond prices, if it is to go higher

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  • 4 months later...

REALLY?  Don't be too quick to Buy this

Lower Gold Prices Today Complete Death Cross Pattern

Kitco Commentary

Gold futures closed down $3.10 today, with the August Comex contract currently fixed at $1,267.60. This three-dollar decline completed a pattern that we identified last week called a "death cross". A "death cross" is created when the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average.


This pattern is created from a 200 and a 50-day moving average. As such, these time parameters for each moving average are used to gauge short and long-term market trends. The short-term average crossing below the long-term average can signal the point in time in which a short-term correction has become a long-term selloff. As such, it can undoubtedly be indicating that gold prices could deteriorate further to much lower pricing.

Historically speaking, since 2013 there have been two instances of a death cross which occurred just before a significant selloff in gold pricing. There have also been two times in which a golden cross was identified (when the short-term moving average moves back above the long-term moving average) resulting in higher pricing.

However, there is also an occurrence in which the moving averages crossed back and forth over a 10-month time span, in essence, indicating a tight sideways market range until a final cross signaled dramatically lower pricing.


The most significant of the two occurrences of a death cross pattern occurred at the beginning of 2013 when gold was trading at $1,660 per ounce. The moving averages did not cross back to a golden cross until the end of March 2014, with gold trading at $1,267 per ounce. Also during that period in time, gold prices traded to a low of $1,190 per ounce on two occasions.


In November 2017, gold was trading at approximately $1,275 per ounce when another occurrence of a death cross appeared. From that moment, gold prices plunged to $1,120 before recovering.

The fact of the matter is that there are historical examples in gold in which this pattern forewarned of an imminent and dramatic price drop. Although there are also instances of this pattern flipping back and forth between a dead and golden cross in the market-rate sideways, this pattern is not to be taken lightly. When it is correct in indicating a selloff, that selloff can be dramatic and long-term.


Cross #1 : 50d vs 200d ... update


Cross #2 : 55d vs 233d ... update : No Cross (yet)


Cross #3 : 55d vs 252d ... update :



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  • 1 month later...

DBA (agri.commodities) vs. Precious Metals (GLD, SLV) fr. 5.24.2013 : with GLD : $114.69 and $17.21/$14.41= Ratio 119.4%



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I added "PHM/Builders" to the Title of this thread because I want to track that relationship

/ over time, I expect PHM & SIL/Silver shares to move in OPPOSITE directions, but it is not always so /

PHM/builders vs SIL/silver shares ...since 2016 :


Ratio: PHM -to-SIL



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  • 2 months later...

SILVER to DBA cycle - may be headed to 95% - Silver to $17.70

Ratio with cycle overlay : SLV / Silver ($14.42) to DBA ($16.97) = r-85% / Target: 9%, maybe March


DBA---- : x 95% - : x 106.5%

$16.50: $15.675 : $16.694 :
$17.00: $16.150 : $17.200 :
$17.50: $16.625 : $17.706 : Preferred case /$15.44 today: +14.7% by March
$18.00: $17.100 : $18.211 :

SLV / Silver etf ... chart : Note - these kind of very precise targets rarely work out - will need revisiting



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Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif:

USD Index / DXY : $96.11 ..... : Gold : $1282.10

Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)


Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)



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  • 3 years later...
  • 1 month later...

10 YEARS may be Too Short... for a Long cycle Peak

PHM / Pulte Group -vs. HGX, TLT... since Apr.20212002: All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d / last: $39.23, $372, $97.5


2002: All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d /


The US Cycle... we have only had about 10 yrs up from the 2011 low.  Normally it is about 14 years. 

Could there be a last Gasp ahead


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