ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

[drbubb]

CHARTS & VALUATIONS

Update- Nov. 2021; Gran Colombian may be prepping for a Big upthrust

GCM,t ... 4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last $5.08.  18 cent Div provides 3.54% Yield

GCM.t : C$5.36 : YTD: 1yr: 2yr: 4yr:  "Yesterday it rose 8.9% to C$5.36" - 12.17.21, and updated at 12.31.21

1yr: from .Jan.2021:

"BIG 4" from: Jan.2020 :  Jan.2018 : 1yr: 10d:

=== REMINDER : Good News coming in Q4...

"We are on track to complete our expansion of the Maria Dama plant to 2,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and our mine and brownfield exploration programs are proceeding as planned. In addition, commissioning of the new polymetallic plant at Segovia is nearing completion and we expect to have our first concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2021. At the end of September 2021, we had a cash position of approximately US$329 million, including the net proceeds of approximately US$268 million from the US$300 million offering of Senior Unsecured Notes due 2026... " /

US$ 329M / 98.5M*  = US$ 3.34 per sh. x C$1.246 = C$4.16 / $329M - $268m= $US61M

*mid-Dec update:  98,241,274 shs OS

Gran Colombia related Companies  @ 11/4/21

Company ————  (symbol) : $ Price: shs OS: Mkt.Cap.: Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): Prior GCM%

Aris Gold Corp.       (ARIS.t ) : C$1.44: 137.8M: $198.4M: 44.3% : $ 87.9 M: (17.6%): (was 44.3%)
Denarius Silver.       (DSLV.v) : C$0.56: 207.4M: $116.1M: 27.0% : $ 31.4 M: ( 6.3%): (was 27.3%)
Western Atlas Rs.  (WA.v.   ) : C$.120: 116.1M: $  13.9M: 25.8% : $.  3.6 M: ( 0.7%): (was 25.8%)
== : Three GCM co’s  =====  :  =====:  ======: $328.4M: ==== : $122.9M: (24.6%) =
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$5.08: 98.5 M: $500.4M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$8.40 : C$514M (x61M)

Almost 25% (ie 24.6%) of GCM's MktCap is covered by investments in its investments these three companies

===

FLOAT vs. VALUATION - previous, at $5.00
Category == :  Qty.   :   Price :    CAD $ :    USD $   : Exer. : $ recd
Common shs: 98.5M : $5.00= $492.5M US$388M:    N/A :    $ 0  :
’24, Wt.$2.21: 10.4M :    “   “  = $ 52.0M US$ 41.M: $2.21: $23.0M
’23, Wt. $5.40:  3.3M :    “   “  = $ 16.5M US$ 13.M: $5.40: $17.8M
’23, Wt. $6.50:   7.1M :   “   “  = $ 35.5M US$ 28.M: $6.50: $46.1M
’22-24 Wts.   :    6.5M :   “   “  = $  32.5M US$    7.M: $4.00e $26.0M
’22-26, Opts.:     2.5M :   “   “  = $  12.5M US$  10.M: $4.00e $10.0M
Cv. Debent’s :    3.8M :    “   “  = $  19.0M US$  15.M: $4.75: $18.0M
Fully Dilluted 132.1M : $5.00= $660.5M US$520M: Cash: $141.M
Less Cash on exercise.   Less : (140.9M) <-------------------------- v v
                      : Net MktCap :       $519.6M  = $409M =
Segovia.       :     1.45 M oz :  Prod.:  200k + oz. Ongoing
Toroparu.     :      7.35 M oz :  Prod.: 200k ? oz.  From 2024?
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M oz :  = $ 63.00 :  US$49.30/ oz
===================== :  =========
             Less Portfolio Value : C$ 337.M: 
                             Net MktCap : C$ 183M:   $144M
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M pz. :  = $ 20.75:  US$16.37/ oz

+ Cash Held: US$350M?? - Debt Raised:  US$300M ( 6.875% Debs. maturing xx )

[drbubb]

Update / Production thru Jan.2022 etc

SEGOVIA PRODUCTION, v.Q4, 2021
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod'20: Prod;21:
Q1- :  54,386:  50,346:  49,058: - 2.56%
Q2- :  51,625:  44,377:  52,198: +17.6%: Covid
Q3- :  50,050:  51,556:  49,848: - 3.31%
Q4- :  58,180:  50,084:  55,285: +10.4%
Yr.=  214,241 196,362: 206.4K?:
3Qs 214,241 146,279: 151,104: +3.30%
12m  ====>. 196,362 206,389: +5.10%

= : SEGOVIA MINE PRODUCTION (Two mines, 2.16.22 below)

Two Mines: Combined/ ———:  ——— : Segovia:  ——— / 
Yr.= 239,991: 220,194: 214.2K: 196.4k: 206,4.k/ 200k Est?
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20/ Prd'19: Prd’20:  Prd'21 : Prd'22 / % chg.
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  / 16,220: 16,865:  15,061: 16,474 / +9.38%
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  / 19,196: 16,548:  15,354:             / 
Mar.  21,325 : 19,072  / 18,970: 16,993:  18,643:             / 
=Q1: 60,601 : 56,247 /  54,386: 50,346: 49,058 / 49.4k Est.
Apr.  20,372 : 12,602  /  18,371: 11,400: 17,473 / 
May 18,528 : 18,129   /  16,363: 16,915: 17,936 /
Jun. 18,882 : 17,497   /  16,89?: 16,062: 16,789 /
=Q2: 57,882 : 48,228 /  51,625: 44,377: 52,198 / 50.0k Est.
July  18,166  : 18,111 /  16,100: 16,459: 15,258 / 
Aug. 18,710 :  20,644 /  16,739: 17,901: 17,377 / 
Sep. 19,395 : 19,699  /  17.211: 17,196: 17,213 / 
=Q3: 56,271 : 58,454  / 50,050: 51,556: 49,848 /
Oct.  20,968 : 19,392  /  18,600: 16,905: 19,456 / 
Nov.: 21,835 : 17,915  /  19,447: 15,741: 17,799 / 
Dec.: 22,434 : 19,958  /  20,133: 17,438: 18,030 /
=Q4: 65,237 : 57,265 /  58,180: 50,084: 55,285 /
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 /
=====
Yr : 239,991: 220,194/ 214,241 196,362 206,389/
Guide : 240k :  220K  /   210K  :   196k  : 200-220k, 200-220k?

Thru Dec.: With its trailing 12 months total gold production amounting to 206,389 ounces,

GCM.t ... update: Last: $5.16 +0.08, +1.57%,  vs.GDXJ: $40.83 -1.67, -3.93%.   +5.5% outperformance

Gran Colombia Gold Says Gold and Silver Production From its Segovia Project on Track to Meet Guidance

05:07 PM EDT, 09/15/2021 (MT Newswires) -- Gran Colombia Gold (TPRXF) on Wednesday said production from its Segovia operations in Colombia totaled 17,377 ounces of gold and 17,915 ounces of silver.

The company said that output over the eight-months of 2021 totaled 133,891 ounces of gold and 144,796 ounces of silver, up 3.7% and 22%, respectively, over the same period in 2020.

Gran Colombia said it remains on track to meet 2021 gold-production guidance of between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces.

[drbubb]

FLOAT vs. VALUATION

FLOAT vs. VALUATION at $1.27- mid.Sep.2021

Category == :  Qty.   :   Price :    CAD $ :    USD $   : Exer. : $ recd
Common shs: 98.5M : $5.00= $492.5M US$388M:    N/A :    $ 0  :
’24, Wt.$2.21: 10.4M:    “   “  = $  52.0M US$ 41.M: $2.21: $23.0M
’23, Wt. $5.40:  3.3M :    “   “  = $  16.5M US$ 13.M: $5.40:  $17.8M
’23, Wt. $6.50:  7.1M :    “   “  = $  35.5M US$ 28.M: $6.50:  $46.1M
’22-24 Wts.   :   6.5M :    “   “  = $  32.5M US$   7.M: $4.00e $26.0M
’22-26, Opts. :   2.5M :    “   “  = $  12.5M US$ 10.M: $4.00e $10.0M
Cv. Debent’s :    3.8M :    “   “  = $  19.0M US$ 15.M: $4.75: $18.0M
Fully Dilluted 132.1M : $5.00= $660.5M US$520M: Cash: $141.M
Less Cash on exercise.   Less : (140.9M) <-------------------------- v v
                        : Net MktCap :       $519.6M  = $409M =
Segovia.       :     1.45 M oz. :  Prod.: 200k + oz. Ongoing
Toroparu.     :     7.35 M oz. :  Prod.: 200k ? oz.  From 2024-25?
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M oz. :  =  $ 63.00 :  US$49.30/ oz
==================== : ========
                Less Portfolio Value : C$ 337.M: 
                               Net MktCap : C$ 183M:   $144M
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M pz. :  = $ 20.75:  US$16.37/ oz

[drbubb]

GCM now moving up as GDXJ falls

Chart update: Flip: 10d/  GCM: C$5.25 / GDXJ: 40.48 = 12.96%, recent low was ?? % / updated !

GCM vs .. update: xx

===

[drbubb]

Canaccord Initiates Coverage - Expecting a DOUBLE


GCM.t ... Weekly : 10d / Last: C$4.78 + 2.36%

Ratio:  GCM.t to UGL:

 

Price: C$4.75.        TARGET: C$9.50

 

On the path to becoming a LatAm mid-tier producer
Investment Recommendation: BUY

We are initiating coverage of Gran Colombia Gold (GCM-TSX) with a BUY rating and a C$9.50 target price.

 Gran Colombia is a South America-focused gold producer operating the Segovia underground complex in Colombia and advancing the
recently acquired Toroparu project in Guyana. The company produces ~200koz/year from Segovia, and we believe with Toroparu it has the potential to double production to ~400koz in the next few years and diversify its production base.

Solid operating record and foundation at Segovia. Segovia is a historic mining district in Colombia that dates back more than 150 years. Gran Colombia acquired Segovia in 2010 and has modernized both the operation and exploration efforts, with the production rate increasing almost four-fold from 400tpd to just under 1,600 tpd currently (a further expansion to 2,000 tpd is expected to be completed later this year). In tandem, gold production has increased from 69 koz in 2011 to 196 koz in 2020 (+186%), with total cash costs declining from $1,254/oz in 2011 to $699/oz in 2020 (-44%). Like many high-grade, narrow-vein underground mines, the operation has more than replaced ounces mined, with its overall resource base increasing to ~2.5 Moz at YE20 from ~1 Moz in 2010. Segovia is located on a prospective large land package with mining on only four of 27 known veins on the property.

Potential to double gold production with Toroparu. In June 2021, Gran Colombia completed the friendly all-share acquisition of Gold X for total consideration of ~$250 million or $24/oz of M&I+I for the Toroparu development project in Guyana – one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the Americas, with a total M&I resource of 7.35Moz plus another 3.15Moz of inferred. Gold X released a 2019 PEA outlining average annual production of 188koz/year at an average AISC of $780 over a 24-year mine life. Initial capex was estimated at $378 million

Updated Toroparu PEA expected imminently. Gran Colombia plans to complete an updated PEA outlining its vision for the project in the next few weeks. We expect an overall smaller operation but with a higher-grade underground operation. Gold production is targeted at 180-200koz/year, effectively doubling the company's current gold output. We expect initial capex to be at or below the 2019 PEA of $378 million. Our base case NPV for Toroparu is based on the Gold X PEA with more conservative operating and capital cost estimates, and a 7% discount rate, pending more details about Gran Colombia’s plan, which we expect should improve the economics.

Solid balance sheet and well funded for Toroparu. We believe the company is
well positioned to fund the project, with the net proceeds from a recent $300 million offering of senior unsecured notes combined with $138 million in potential funding from Wheaton Precious Metals, $58 million in cash on hand and ongoing operating cash flow.

Monthly dividend: high yield and modest payout ratio. Gran Colombia pays a monthly dividend of C$0.015/sh, ~3.9% yield, one of the highest in our coverage universe. On our price deck, we estimate a payout ratio of 15%–20% of sustaining FCF.

Re-rating Coming?

Our target multiples are at the lower end of the range we typically use given GCM is currently a single asset producer and with potential development risk at Toroparu. However, we see potential for the company's valuation to rerate higher as Toroparu advances. Gran Colombia is trading at 0.28x NAV and 1.8x 2022E EBITDA, vs. peers at 0.59x and 3.4x, respectively.

[drbubb]

GCM is on the launnchpad

Globe says gains seen coming quickly at Gran Colombia

2021-09-29 07:39 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Canaccord analyst Carey MacRury began coverage on Gran Colombia Gold with a "buy" ranking. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. MacRury is targeting the shares at $9.50. Analysts on average target the shares at $11.21. Mr. MacRury likes its "solid" operating record and foundation at its Segovia underground complex in Colombia. Mr. MacRury believes the company is "on the path to becoming a Latin American mid-tier producer." As well, he thinks gains are likely to be seen quite quickly at its recently acquired Toroparu project in Guyana. He says in a note: "Gran Colombia's shares have underperformed following the recent acquisition of Gold X. We note that Gran Colombia is trading at 0.5 times NAV on the basis of Segovia alone, suggesting to us that the market is not currently pricing in a lot of value for Toroparu. We expect that to start to change once the company releases its plan and economics for the project and as the project advances. ... We see the potential for the company's valuation to rerate higher as Toroparu advances into production and the company transitions into a more diversified, mid-tier producer."

> more: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!GCM-3145711/C/GCM

[drbubb]

Gran Colombia Announces Third Quarter 2021 Production and Webcast

CHARTS-ytd: Gcm-Gold-GDX, w/RGLD: 10d: Last: C$5.18=us$4.18 / gdx-$43.15= 9.69%

10d: Last: C$5.04 -0.14=us$4.08 -0.10 / gdxj-$43.99 +0.84 = 9.28% -0.41%

TORONTO, Oct. 13, 2021 --

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM; OTCQX: TPRFF) announced today that it produced a total of 17,213 ounces of gold at its Segovia Operations in September 2021 bringing the total gold production for the third quarter of 2021 to 49,848 ounces compared with 51,555 ounces from Segovia in the third quarter of 2020. The Company also produced 52,382 ounces of silver at Segovia in the third quarter of 2021, up from 47,560 ounces of silver in the third quarter last year. For the first nine months of 2021, Segovia’s gold and silver production totalled 151,104 ounces and 164,270 ounces, respectively, up from 146,278 ounces of gold and 134,820 ounces of silver in the first nine months of 2020.

Lombardo Paredes, Chief Executive Officer of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company’s latest results, said, “We have maintained a steady pace of production in the third quarter of 2021, which included a planned four-day maintenance shutdown at the Maria Dama plant in July. With our trailing 12-months total gold production from Segovia at the end of the third quarter amounting to 201,187 ounces of gold, up 2% over 2020, we are confident we will meet our production guidance at Segovia for the full year of 200,000 to 220,000 ounces of gold. We are on track to complete our expansion of the Maria Dama plant to 2,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and our mine and brownfield exploration programs are proceeding as planned. In addition, commissioning of the new polymetallic plant at Segovia is nearing completion and we expect to have our first concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2021.

At the end of September 2021, we had a cash position of approximately US$329 million, including the net proceeds ....

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/U-z8372258-U!TPRFF-20211013/U/TPRFF

xx

nc

[drbubb]

BUYBACK NEWS and strong cash flow is beginning to help the stock price

chart update; Last: $5.21

ss

(Stockhouse comments):

Serafino wacht auf

posted October 14, 2021 03:28 pm  by  Golddd

but what is iacono waiting for to release the results of toroparu ??? instead of re-evaluating the company, what is Iacono doing ??? all other mines are on + 3/4/5%. is it possible that you do not...read more

RE:Gran Colombia Gold Renews Share Buyback Program

1. Gran Colombia Gold this morning announced that it will be renewing its normal course issuer bid. Also known as a share buyback program, the program will see shares purchased by the company for...read more

2. Outstanding news. Take adva  of low price while they can. Thanks management/board.

3. posted October 15, 2021 10:19 am  by  invest234

great news. gcm should have plenty of cash to buy back shares. $329mil cash + $138mil cash from wheaton making toro overfunded + updated pea likely reducing cost of toro
+ generating a lot of free cash every year with good profit margin
+ extra cash from polymetallic plant
+ 2000 tpd expansion soon
+ toro build increasing production to 400k+ oz/yr for even more cash
great opportunity for gcm to buy shares cheap during this gold scare / repeated threat of fed stopping money printing, which we know is impossible when usa deficit needs to borrow trillion+ dollars more every year. that trillion dollars every year have to come from somewhere, which ends up being the fed....   read more

4. remember, the last time gcm started share buyback, gcm share price went over $8.
they stopped previously because they were acquiring toro and needed to conserve cash to fund it. now that toro is fully funded, they have plenty of cash to buy back shares.

[drbubb]

Gran Colombian may be prepping for a Big upthrust

GCM-etc... YTD: fr. Nov.2019: Aug'21: 10d /C$5.08 -0.06 / GDXJ-$43.28 = R-11.7% / UGL-$57.90 = R-8.77%

fr. Nov.2019:

GCM,t ... 4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last $5.08.  18 cent Div provides 3.54% Yield

=== REMINDER : Good News coming in Q4...
"We are on track to complete our expansion of the Maria Dama plant to 2,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and our mine and brownfield exploration programs are proceeding as planned. In addition, commissioning of the new polymetallic plant at Segovia is nearing completion and we expect to have our first concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2021. At the end of September 2021, we had a cash position of approximately US$329 million, including the net proceeds of approximately US$268 million from the US$300 million offering of Senior Unsecured Notes due 2026... " /

US$ 329M / 98.5M  = US$ 3.34 per sh. x C$1.246 = C$4.16 / $329M - $268m= $US61M

About Gran Colombia Gold Corp.

Gran Colombia is a mid-tier gold producer with a proven track record of mine building and operating in Latin America. In Colombia, the Company is currently the largest underground gold and silver producer with several mines in operation at its high-grade Segovia Operations. In Guyana, the Company is advancing the Toroparu Project, one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the Americas. Gran Colombia also owns an approximately 44% equity interest in Aris Gold Corporation (TSX: ARIS) (Colombia – Marmato), an approximately 27% equity interest in Denarius Silver Corp. (TSX-V: DSLV) (Spain – Lomero-Poyatos; Colombia – Guia Antigua and Zancudo) and an approximately 26% equity interest in Western Atlas Resources Inc. (TSX-V: WA) (Nunavut – Meadowbank).

Gran Colombia related Companies  @ 11/4/21

Company ————  (symbol) : $ Price: shs OS: Mkt.Cap.: Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): Prior GCM%

Aris Gold Corp.       (ARIS.t ) : C$1.44: 137.8M: $198.4M: 44.3% : $ 87.9 M: (17.6%): (was 44.3%)
Denarius Silver.       (DSLV.v) : C$0.56: 207.4M: $116.1M: 27.0% : $ 31.4 M: ( 6.3%): (was 27.3%)
Western Atlas Rs.  (WA.v.   ) : C$.120: 116.1M: $  13.9M: 25.8% : $.  3.6 M: ( 0.7%): (was 25.8%)
== : Three GCM co’s  =====  :  =====:  ======: $328.4M: ==== : $122.9M: (24.6%) =
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$5.08: 98.5 M: $500.4M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$8.40 : C$514M (x61M)

Almost 25% (ie 24.6%) of GCM's MktCap is covered by investments in its investments these three companies

*Previously was at 5/10/21:
Aris Gold Corp.       (ARIS.t ) : C$2.36: 137.8M: $325.2M: 44.3% : $144.1M: (45.8%):
Denarius Silver.       (DSLV.v) : C$0.55:   94.2M: $  51.8M:  27.3% : $14.14M: ( 4.5%):
Western Atlas Rs.  (WA.v.   ) : C$.070: 116.1M: $   8.13M: 25.8% : $. 2.10M: ( 0.7%):
== : Three GCM co’s  =====  :  =====:  ======: $385.1M: ==== : $160.3M: (51.0%)
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$5.14: 61.14M: $314.3M: ==== : ======= : (100.%):  Over 50% of GCM's MktCap

[drbubb]

COMPARE : GOLD (Barrick) and GOLD (metal) ...

GCM.t/ Gold/ UGL:  2yr: from Nov.2019: w/RGLD: YTD: 10d: $5.08/ $18.75= 27.1% /$57.90= 8.77%

GOLD ... 4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last $18.75 +0.13.  Barrick Gold's 36 cent Div provides 1.92% Yield

UGL   ... 4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last $57.90... : GCM=xx%,  GOLD=xx%. 

RGLD... 4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last $57.90... : GCM=xx%,  GOLD=xx%. 

[drbubb]

GDX up over 2% ! But Breakout leaves opening gaps,  10d:

GOLD - Z

12.1

20.49

·

20.50

6.3

20.50

+0.88

+4.5%

GCM - T

1.1

5.46

·

5.47

0.4

5.46

+0.12

2.2%

==

[drbubb]

Lucky timing on ARIS.t: $1.75 +0.30, +22%. 

I picked up shares two days ago, and it popped by over 20% today.  NEWS at last !

a 42% increase in Measured and Indicated mineral resources to 5.8 million ounces (Moz) of gold,

Company ————  (symbol) : $ Price: shs OS: Mkt.Cap.: Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): Prior GCM%

 Aris Gold Corp.       (ARIS.t ) : C$1.44: 137.8M: $198.4M: 44.3% : $ 87.9 M: (17.6%): (was 44.3%)

Each GCM share is backed by 0.62 ARIS shares,  (61/98= 62%), so today's gain of 0.30 in ARIS x 62%= $0.186 gain in GCM. 

In fact, GCM is now up 0.17, 3,1% on a day when GDXJ has risen 2.5%.  So more to come maybe

 

[drbubb]

GCM lower on Margin squeeze in Q3,

$5.44

-0.22

-3.9%

5

I call this a "somewhat disappointing quarter":

still, they reported a positive free cash flow and a quarterly profit of US$0.26

TORONTO, Nov. 11, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM; OTCQX: TPRFF) announced today the release of its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements and accompanying management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021. All financial figures contained herein are expressed in U.S. dollars (“USD”) unless otherwise noted.

EXCERPTS

• Gran Colombia’s gold production from its Segovia Operations totaled 49,848 ounces in the third quarter of 2021 compared with 51,555 ounces in the third quarter of 2020. Total gold production from Segovia for the first nine months of 2021 amounted to 151,104 ounces compared with 146,278 ounces in the first nine months last year. In October 2021, Segovia’s gold production was 19,456 ounces bringing the Company’s trailing 12-months total gold production from its Segovia Operations at the end of October 2021 to 203,739 ounces, up 4% over 2020. The Company remains on track with its annual production guidance and has narrowed the range to between 203,000 to 210,000 ounces of gold from Segovia in 2021. Including Marmato production up to February 4, 2021, consolidated gold production for the first nine months of 2021 was 153,532 ounces compared with 162,929 ounces in the first nine months last year.

• Consolidated revenue amounted to $90.7 million and $289.0 million in the third quarter and first nine months of 2021, respectively, compared with $113.1 million and $291.2 million in the third quarter and first nine months, respectively, of 2020. Spot gold prices in the third quarter of 2021 were lower than the same quarter a year ago, decreasing the Company’s realized gold price ⁽¹⁾by 5% to an average of $1,784 per ounce sold in the third quarter of 2021 compared with an average of $1,875 per ounce sold in the third quarter last year.

• At the Segovia Operations, total cash costs ⁽¹⁾averaged $845 per ounce in the third quarter of 2021, compared with $722 per ounce in the third quarter of 2020, bringing the average for the first nine months of 2021 to $812 per ounce compared with $659 per ounce in the first nine months last year.

• All-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) ⁽¹⁾ per ounce sold for the Segovia Operations were $1,218 and $1,145 in the third quarter and first nine months, respectively, of 2021 compared with $1,031 and $939 in the third quarter and first nine months, respectively, of 2020. The year-over-year increase in Segovia’s AISC in 2021 reflects (i) the increased total cash costs as described above and (ii) an increase in exploration and mine geology, mine development and other sustaining capital expenditures.

• Adjusted EBITDA ⁽¹⁾ amounted to $39.9 million for the third quarter of 2021 compared with $56.7 million in the third quarter last year. This brings the total adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2021 to $134.3 million compared with $144.7 million in the first nine months of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter and first nine months of 2020 included $2.4 million and $4.6 million, respectively, from the Marmato mining operations.

• Net cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter of 2021 was $26.7 million compared with $68.0 million in the third quarter last year.

• Free Cash Flow ⁽¹⁾ in the third quarter of 2021 was $12.1 million compared with $53.7 million in the third quarter of 2020 bringing the total Free Cash Flow for the first nine months of 2021 to $11.6 million compared with $67.8 million in the first nine months of 2020. In addition to an increased level of sustaining capital expenditures in the current year, non-sustaining capital expenditures in the first nine months of 2021 included $6.8 million at its Segovia Operations associated with the Maria Dama plant expansion, construction of the new polymetallic plant and the brownfield exploration program and $2.4 million to advance the PEA and pre-construction activities at its Toroparu Project.

• The Company’s balance sheet benefitted from the Senior Notes financing, raising its cash position to $329.6 million and working capital to $331.5 million at the end of September 2021.

• The Company reported net income of $25.3 million ($0.26 per share) in the third quarter of 2021 compared with $18.0 million ($0.39 per share) in the third quarter of 2020 reflecting an improvement in other income (expense) items and lower income tax expense

• Adjusted net income ⁽¹⁾ for the third quarter of 2021 was $14.4 million ($0.15 per share) compared with $29.5 million ($0.47 per share) in the third quarter last year. For the first nine months of 2021, adjusted net income totaled $59.9 million ($0.78 per share) compared with $68.2 million ($1.14 per share) in the first nine months last year.

> MORE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gran-colombia-announces-third-quarter-001500654.html

[drbubb]

GCM.t: Name change* and... PEA announcement...

Lombardo Paredes's Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (GCM) had a good day, adding 10 cents to $5.12 on 778,000 shares on a revised resource estimate and preliminary economic assessment of its Toroparu project in Guyana. The company now lists 185 million tonnes measured and indicated at 1.42 grams of gold and 1.01 grams of silver per tonne, plus 0.097 per cent copper. A further 13.8 million tonnes are inferred at 2.74 grams of gold and 0.4 gram of silver per tonne, plus 0.08 per cent copper.

The company said that the PEA affirms the economic viability of the open pit and underground mining operations at the Toroparu Project.

The PEA assumes total life-of-mine ("LoM") gold production of 5.4 million ounces ("Mozs") representing 88.4% of the 6.2 Mozs of gold fed to the milling circuit at an average grade of 1.78 g/t Au over the 24-year mine life. Average annual gold production is 225,000 ounces over the 24-year mine life.

The copper concentrator will facilitate the recovery of 141.3 million pounds ("Mlbs") of copper over its 19 years of operation, the company added.

According to a press-release, the PEA delivers solid financial results with LoM total revenue of US$8.0 billion, US$3.5 billion of operating margin and US$1.7 billion of after-tax free cash flow. (assumed gold price: $1500)

---

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-12-01/GCM-Mining-delivers-robust-PEA-for-Toroparu-gold-and-copper-project-in-Guyana-with-1-7-billion-free-cash-flow.html

*Gran Colombia to change name to GCM Mining Dec. 1

[drbubb]

WEIRD !  Good investment, but...

GCM buys a company for 1/6 or 1/7 of its Free Cash flow value, and its stock price drops from C$6.19 to a year low in Aug. of C$4.50, -27.3%

GCM Mining delivers robust PEA for Toroparu gold and copper project in Guyana, with $1.7 billion free cash flow

( Note: GCM bought about 52M shs. On Mar.13th, the day of the T/o announcement the price was C$6.19, x52M = C$321M = US$258M cost for GLDX )

$1.7B / $258m= ratio 6.58, a gain of 6-fold would be impressive.

Compare
Sym.:  YrE:'19: YrE’20: Mar.12: chg. Dec.02: chg. YTD:
GCM.t C$5.57: C$8.06: $6.19: - 23%, $5.15: -17%,  - 36%
GDXJ: $42.26: $54.24:  47.10: - 13%, 40.60: -14%,  - 25%
GLD.  : $142.9: $178.4:  161.5: -9.5%, 165.2: +2.3% -7.4%
UGL.  : $49.05: $68.20:  54.97: -19%, 55.95: +1.8%,  -18%
G/UG : R0.114  R0.118:  r0.112: ===,  r.092
====

[drbubb]

HIGHER PRODUCTION, and Stock Buyback ... Only 98.24 Million shs.OS

GCM Mining also announced today that it produced 17,799 ounces of gold and 24,593 ounces of silver at Segovia in the month of November, 2021, bringing the total for the first 11 months of the year to 188,359 ounces of gold and 210,817 ounces of silver, up from 178,923 ounces of gold and 165,832 ounces of silver at Segovia in the first 11 months of 2020.

GCM Mining processed 45,030 tonnes in November, 2021, at its Maria Dama plant, representing a daily processing rate of 1,501 tonnes per day (tpd); head grades averaged 13.7 grams per tonne (g/t) in the month. This brings the daily processing rate for the first 11 months of 2021 to an average of 1,518 tpd with an average head grade of 12.9 g/t compared with 1,276 tpd at an average head grade of 14.5 g/t in the first 11 months of 2020.

With its trailing 12-month total gold production as of the end of November amounting to 205,808 ounces, GCM Mining remains on track to produce between 203,000 and 210,000 ounces of gold in 2021 from its Segovia operations.

Normal course issuer bid (NCIB) update

GCM Mining provided an update today on its purchases of its common shares pursuant to its current NCIB which commenced in October, 2021. During the period from Dec. 6, 2021, through Dec. 10, 2021, the company purchased a total of 286,301 common shares at an average price of $5.20 per share with the total cost amounting to approximately $1.5-million. After the cancellation of these shares, the company currently has a total of 98,241,274 common shares issued and outstanding.

The NCIB allows the company to purchase for cancellation up to a total of 9,570,540 common shares of the company over the 12-month term that will end on Oct. 19, 2022, or such earlier date on which the maximum purchases under the NCIB have been completed. Purchases of common shares under the NCIB are being made through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) or other alternative Canadian trading systems at the market price of the shares at the time of acquisition.

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!GCM-3184733/C/GCM

[drbubb]

Thursday was a Great Day for GCM: C$ up 9%, US$ quote up 11%

GCM.t : C$5.36 : YTD: 1yr: 2yr:

Yesterday it rose 8.9% to C$5.36, putting my position there back in profit.  I believe it has made an important higher low, and can soon blow through resistance at $5.50-5.75.  Then it could be "on its way" to retest that High over $8.  Canaccord has a target over C$10.  Fingers crossed, systems go !

Bullboard Comment > thread

RE:RE:RE:Yes 286 000 shares cancelled

invest234 (514) | December 15, 2021 10:16 am

that is great news starting to buy back shares. now i don't mind so much if the share price drops because that allows gcm to buy back more shares at a cheaper price, which is good long term.

that buyback used only cdn$1.5 mil cash. gcm has around us$60 mil surplus cash from overfunding toro (plus segovia generating free cash every year), so they can afford to repeat this buyback 40 more times!

nov. production on track at the upper end, there is still good news coming from the polymetallic plant completion producing extra cash, 2000 tpd plant upgrade, completion of toro pre-feas, results from large 60km drill program. with these capex projects being completed and the ability to reduce drilling back to the usual 20km drilling, gcm will have more free cash available in 2022 to buy back even more shares!

[drbubb]

Wave 3 of 3 Up may be right ahead for GCM

But first Key resistance at C$5.50 needs to be taken out

GCM Mining ... update / Last: C$5.35 , 18.8% above Yr.L ($4.50): $8.40-H >L: - 46.4%

Others:

GOLD / Barrick Gold ... update / Last: $18.57 , +7.52% above Yr.L ($17.27): $25.37-H >L: - 31.9%

RGLD / Royal Gold ... update / Last: $103.63 , +12.6% above Yr.L ($92.01): $129.69-H >L: - 29.1%

ARIS / Aris Gold ... update / Last: $1.55 , +24.0% above Yr.L ($1.25): $3.15 -H >L: - 70.3%

FSM / Fortuna Silver Mines ... update / Last: $3.99 , +37.1% above Yr.L ($2.91): $9.85 -H >L: - 70.5%

EXN / Excellon  ... update / Last: $1.44 , +5.88% above Yr.L ($1.36): $4.76-H >L: - 69.7%

WM.t / Wallbridge Mining  ... update / Last: $0.405 , +15.7% above Yr.L ($0.35): $0.83 -H >L: - 57.8%

===

[drbubb]

My Big 4 Positions for 2022.  I am excited about all four of these

Big 4 / Update from: Jan.2018 : 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / ( UGL: $59.81)

GCM.t: C$5.33 (8.91%), GOLD: $19.00 (31.8%), RGLD: $105.21 (176%), MUX: $0.89 (1.49%)

from: Jan.2020 :

==

[drbubb]

WATCH for (coming?) Breakout.

TPRFF, etc ... from Jan.2020: US$4.23 +0.21, +5.2% > C$5.35 +0.21, +4.1% / GDX: $31.30 = 13.5% .. 10d: 10d+:

Lower trendline test done.  Gold shares look set to test upside for possible Breakout 

(Note: TPRFF, is the USD symbol for GCM, still one of the cheapest Gold shares, and it has a Yield of 3.4%)

RATIO : US$4.23 / GDX: $31.30 = 13.5%

[drbubb]

UPDATING SEGOVIA PRODUCTION

/ Before /

= : TWO MINES PRODUCTION 

Two Mines: Combined/ ———: Segovia: ——— /  Marmato —— /
Yr.= 239,991: 220,194: - 7.5%E
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20/ Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 / Prd'19 Prd’20/ '21?
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  / 16,220: 16,865:  15,061 /  1,721:   1,636 / ??
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  / 19,196: 16,548:  15,354 /  2,139:   2,126 /
Mar.  21,325 : 19,072  / 18,970: 16,993:  18,643 /  2,355:   2,139 /
=Q1: 60,601 : 56,247 /  54,386: 50,346: 49,058 /  6,215:  5,901  /
Apr.  20,372 : 12,602  /  18,371: 11,400: 17,473 /  2,101 :  1,202  /
May 18,528 : 18,129   /  16,363: 16,915: 17,936 /  2,165 :  1,214  /
Jun. 18,882 : 17,497   /  16,89?: 16,062: 16,789 /  1,991 :  1,435  /
=Q2: 57,882 : 48,228 /  51,625: 44,377: 52,198 /  6,257 :  3,851  /
July  18,166  : 18,111 /  16,100: 16,459: 15,258 /  2,066 :  1,652  /
Aug. 18,710 :  20,644 /  16,739: 17,901: 17,377 /  1,971 :  2,743  /
Sep. 19,395 : 19,699  /  17.211: 17,196: 17,213 /  2,184 :  2,503  /
=Q3: 56,271 : 58,454  / 50,050: 51,556: 49,848 /  6,221 :  6,898  /
Oct.  20,968 : 19,392  /  18,600: 16,905: 19,456 /  2,368 :  2,487  /
Nov.: 21,835 : 17,915  /  19,447: 15,741: 17,799 /  2,388 :  2,174  /
Dec.: 22,434 : 19,958  /  20,133: 17,438: 18,030 /  2,301 :  2,520  /
=Q4: 65,237 : 57,265 /  58,180: 50,084: 55,285 / 7,057 :  7,181  /
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 / Prd'19 : Prd’20/
=====
Yr : 239,991: 220,194/ 214,241 196,362 206,389/ 25,750: 23,832  /
Guide : 240k :  220K  /   210K  :   196k  : 200-220k

/ After /

= : SEGOVIA MINE PRODUCTION (Two mines, 2.16.22 below)

Two Mines: Combined/ ———:  ——— : Segovia:  ——— / 
Yr.= 239,991: 220,194: 214.2K: 196.4k: 206,4.k/ 200k Est?
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20/ Prd'19: Prd’20:  Prd'21 : Prd'22 / % chg.
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  / 16,220: 16,865:  15,061: 16,474 / +9.38%
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  / 19,196: 16,548:  15,354:             / 
Mar.  21,325 : 19,072  / 18,970: 16,993:  18,643:             / 
=Q1: 60,601 : 56,247 /  54,386: 50,346: 49,058 / 49.4k Est.
Apr.  20,372 : 12,602  /  18,371: 11,400: 17,473 / 
May 18,528 : 18,129   /  16,363: 16,915: 17,936 /
Jun. 18,882 : 17,497   /  16,89?: 16,062: 16,789 /
=Q2: 57,882 : 48,228 /  51,625: 44,377: 52,198 / 50.0k Est.
July  18,166  : 18,111 /  16,100: 16,459: 15,258 / 
Aug. 18,710 :  20,644 /  16,739: 17,901: 17,377 / 
Sep. 19,395 : 19,699  /  17.211: 17,196: 17,213 / 
=Q3: 56,271 : 58,454  / 50,050: 51,556: 49,848 /
Oct.  20,968 : 19,392  /  18,600: 16,905: 19,456 / 
Nov.: 21,835 : 17,915  /  19,447: 15,741: 17,799 / 
Dec.: 22,434 : 19,958  /  20,133: 17,438: 18,030 /
=Q4: 65,237 : 57,265 /  58,180: 50,084: 55,285 /
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 /
=====

Taking into consideration the maintenance shutdowns, the Maria Dama plant processed an average of 1,556 tonnes per operating day in January, 2022, compared with 1,428 tonnes per operating day in January last year. Segovia's head grades averaged 13.5 grams per tonne in January, 2022, compared with 12.6 grams per tonne in January last year. The activities associated with the expansion of the Maria Dama plant from 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes per day are progressing well and all of the upgrades will be completed by the end of March, except for the expansion of the crushing facility, which has been impacted by supply chain delays and is now expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022.

The new 200-tonne-per-day polymetallic plant at Segovia, commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2021, continued to operate in test mode in January, processing an average of approximately 107 tonnes per day of tailings resulting in the production of 81 tonnes of zinc concentrate and 85 tonnes of lead concentrate, which have been stockpiled and are awaiting shipment later in the first quarter of 2022. Payable production from the concentrates is estimated to total approximately 63,000 pounds of zinc, 97,000 pounds of lead, 8,500 ounces of silver and less than 50 ounces of gold. Actual payable quantities are subject to change and will be finalized once the concentrates are shipped. GCM Mining continues to expect that the daily processing rate of the polymetallic plant will reach its normal operating capacity in the second quarter of 2022.

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!GCM-3207945/C/GCM

[drbubb]

GCM has lagged and is looking relatively cheap now.  "A depressed spring"?

GCM / TRRFF to UGL ... GCM.T ($5.72) TPRFF-update: US$4.51 / $68.75 = 6.56%

 

[drbubb]

Two presentations - prior to PDAC, updated #

MktCap.  Shs Issued

97,716,573 x C$5.78 = C$ 565 Million... US$4.52 = US$ 442 Million / Production 206 k oz . = $2,145 per Oz

Traded Wts: GCM.WT.B at C$2.21: 10.3 million / "Semi" Dilluted: 108.0M = $ 488M -($18m)= $470M / 206k  = $2,282 per Oz

Fully Diluted 131.8 M shares x $4.52= US$596 M / - ($18M + xxM + xxM) = xxM

NCIB:   Commenced October 20, 2021. Bought back and cancelled
284,201 shares in January 2022; 856,902 cumulatively

Gran Colombia Mining - on The JayMartinShow: "Lots of upside to talk about"

GCM Mining - Red Cloud 2022 Pre-PDAC Mining Showcase   >

MktCap.  Shares Issued

97,716,573 x C$5.78 = C$ 565 Million... US$4.52 = US$ 442 Million / 206 k oz. pa. = $2,145 per Oz.

xx

[drbubb]

GCM BULLBOARD comments; Relative Value and Buybacks

As GCM closes above C$6.03. +0.11  | 1.86%

TPRFF to UGL Ratio : $4.70 / $70.34 (=Gold $1,990) = R-6.68%

- see chart in next panel -

7Twiggy (548). March 08, 2022 - 03:17 PM.

Think we have a bit of catch up to do

March 11, 2021 this stock was trading around 6.20 and gold was trading around $2155.  Today the stock hit 6.00 with gold trading around $2623.  Gold is up around 21% from that date and GCM down a few percentage points. Think we have a bit of catch up to do. Wonder what this price increase means in dollars per month.  A 21% increase from todays high would put GCM at 7.20 and I think that number is most likely low. 

 

RE:RE:RE:RE:Gold 2040 gcm …. posted March 08, 2022 12:43 pm  by  menoalittle. (700)

Oh, we are most definitely on a breakout.  Technically speaking (paying no attention to the fundamentals), this should be going to 6.80 or so in rather short order...  rate and reply

 

March 08, 2022 12:39 pm  by  menoalittle
(700)

>> They have got to be making some hellacious money at these levels. Oh, I have absolutely no doubt that they are... which is exactly why I was pushing for buybacks on the stock. '...read more

 

GCM has not bought back since Feb 1

March 08, 2022 11:09 am  by  7Twiggy
(548)

GCM has not bought back since Feb 1.  My guess they had a certain target in mind and when hit stopped buying back.  I would think that with the price of gold moving ahead to $2065 they will...read more

 

 @Goldfinger on 7 Mar 2022, 10:26

Barrick Gold Insiders Bet Big On Gold Bull Market   

Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD, TSX:ABX) experienced a torrent of insider buying on a single day last week. On Tuesday March 1st, Barrick insiders purchased more than C$20 million worth of Barrick Gold shares in a single trading session:

 

[drbubb]

Ratio to 2x Gold : It is still Cheap! Plus at C$6.03 you get a 2.99% dividend yield (which can rise!)

GCM Mining ( TPRff is Us quote ) is looking too cheap relative to UGL / 2x Gold - Despite have just broken out over C$6 - at last!