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Gran Columbia (GCM.t) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

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CHARTS & VALUATIONS

GCM to-GDXJ, update: fr.1.1.2020: 3.1.21:           Flip: 10d: C$5.25 /40.48, 09.17.21: = 12.96%, 12.0% at 9.15.21

Prev. 10.15.20: 10.9%, 3.09.21: 13.2%, 05.10.21: = 10.1%

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fr.1.1.2020: 3.1.21: 10d: C$5.10 /42.50, 09.15.21: = 12.00%

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: update: fr.1.1.2020: 10d:

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GRAN

Valuations

Company ————  (symbol) : $ Price: shs OS: Mkt.Cap.: Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): vs. Old PeakValue: GCM.V
Aris Gold Corp.       (ARIS.t ) : C$1.73: 137.8M: C$238.4M: 44.3% : $105.6M: (2?? %): C$3.15: $434.1M, $192M
Denarius Silver.       (DSLV.v) : C$0.44:  205.1M: C$  90.2M:  27.3% : $24.6M: ( 2.?%): C$0.69: $  65.0M, $  18M.
Western Atlas Rs.  (WA.v.   ) : C$.075: 116.1M: C$   8.71M: 25.8% : $. 2.25M: ( 0.?%): C$0.19:  $   6.8M, $ 1.8M.  
= : Three GCM co’s   ====== :  =====:  ===== : C$337.3M: ==== : $135.5M : (27.0%) =====> > $506M, $212M (27%)

Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$5.10: 98.50M: C$502.4M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$8.40 : C$795M (100%)  9.15.21 update

FLOAT vs. VALUATION at $1.27
Category == :  Qty.   :   Price :    CAD $ :    USD $   : Exer. : $ recd
Common shs: 98.5M : $5.00= $492.5M US$388M:    N/A :    $ 0  :
’24, Wt.$2.21: 10.4M :    “   “  = $ 52.0M US$ 41.M: $2.21: $23.0M
’23, Wt. $5.40:  3.3M :    “   “  = $ 16.5M US$ 13.M: $5.40: $17.8M
’23, Wt. $6.50:   7.1M :   “   “  = $ 35.5M US$ 28.M: $6.50: $46.1M
’22-24 Wts.   :    6.5M :   “   “  = $  32.5M US$    7.M: $4.00e $26.0M
’22-26, Opts.:     2.5M :   “   “  = $  12.5M US$  10.M: $4.00e $10.0M
Cv. Debent’s :    3.8M :    “   “  = $  19.0M US$  15.M: $4.75: $18.0M
Fully Dilluted 132.1M : $5.00= $660.5M US$520M: Cash: $141.M
Less Cash on exercise.   Less : (140.9M) <-------------------------- v v
                      : Net MktCap :       $519.6M  = $409M =
Segovia.       :     1.45 M oz :  Prod.:  200k + oz. Ongoing
Toroparu.     :      7.35 M oz :  Prod.: 200k ? oz.  From 2024?
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M oz :  = $ 63.00 :  US$49.30/ oz
===================== :  =========
             Less Portfolio Value : C$ 337.M: 
                             Net MktCap : C$ 183M:   $144M
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M pz. :  = $ 20.75:  US$16.37/ oz

+ Cash Held: US$350M?? - Debt Raised:  US$300M ( 6.875% Debs. maturing xx )

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2021 Update / Production thru Aug.2021 etc

SEGOVIA PRODUCTION, v.Q2, 2021
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod'20: Prod;21:
Q1- :  54,386:  50,346:  49,058: - 2.56%
Q2- :  51,625:  44,377:  52,198: +17.6%: Covid
Q3- :  50,050:  51,556:  49,848: - 3.31%
Q4- :  58,180:  50,084:  55k ?? :
Yr.=  214,241 196,362: 205K ?.:

= : TWO MINES PRODUCTION 

Two Mines: Combined/ ———: Segovia: ——— /  Marmato —— /
Yr.= 239,991: 220,194: - 7.5%E
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20/ Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 / Prd'19 Prd’20/ '21?
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  / 16,220: 16,865:  15,061 /  1,721:   1,636 / ??
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  / 19,196: 16,548:  15,354 /  2,139:   2,126 /
Mar.  21,325 : 19,072  / 18,970: 16,993:  18,643 /  2,355:   2,139 /
=Q1: 60,601 : 56,247 /  54,386: 50,346: 49,058 /  6,215:  5,901  /
Apr.  20,372 : 12,602  /  18,371: 11,400: 17,473 /  2,101 :  1,202  /
May 18,528 : 18,129   /  16,363: 16,915: 17,936 /  2,165 :  1,214  /
Jun. 18,882 : 17,497   /  16,89?: 16,062: 16,789 /  1,991 :  1,435  /
=Q2: 57,882 : 48,228 /  51,625: 44,377: 52,198 /  6,257 :  3,851  /
July  18,166  : 18,111 /  16,100: 16,459: 15,258 /  2,066 :  1,652  /
Aug. 18,710 :  20,644 /  16,739: 17,901: 17,377 /  1,971 :  2,743  /
Sep. 19,395 : 19,699  /  17.211: 17,196: 17,213 /  2,184 :  2,503  /
=Q3: 56,271 : 58,454  / 50,050: 51,556: 49,848 /  6,221 :  6,898  /
Oct.  20,968 : 19,392  /  18,600: 16,905: 00,000 /  2,368 :  2,487  /
Nov.: 21,835 : 17,915  /  19,447: 15,741: 00,000 /  2,388 :  2,174  /
Dec.: 22,434 : 19,958  /  20,133: 17,438: 00,000 /  2,301 :  2,520  /
=Q4: 65,237 : 57,265  /  58,180: 50,084: 52k ?? / 7,057 :  7,181  /
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prd'19 : Prd’20 : Prd'21 / Prd'19 : Prd’20/
=====
Yr : 239,991: 220,194/ 214,241 196,362: 202K ?/ 25,750: 23,832  /
Guide : 240k :  220K  /   210K  :   196k  : 200-220k

8 mos ==================: 129,082: 133,891: + 3.7%

Thru Aug.: With its trailing 12 months total gold production amounting to 201,170 ounces,

GCM.t ... update: Last: $5.16 +0.08, +1.57%,  vs.GDXJ: $40.83 -1.67, -3.93%.   +5.5% outperformance

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Gran Colombia Gold Says Gold and Silver Production From its Segovia Project on Track to Meet Guidance

05:07 PM EDT, 09/15/2021 (MT Newswires) -- Gran Colombia Gold (TPRXF) on Wednesday said production from its Segovia operations in Colombia totaled 17,377 ounces of gold and 17,915 ounces of silver.

The company said that output over the eight-months of 2021 totaled 133,891 ounces of gold and 144,796 ounces of silver, up 3.7% and 22%, respectively, over the same period in 2020.

Gran Colombia said it remains on track to meet 2021 gold-production guidance of between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces.

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FLOAT vs. VALUATION

FLOAT vs. VALUATION at $1.27- mid.Sep.2021

Category == :  Qty.   :   Price :    CAD $ :    USD $   : Exer. : $ recd
Common shs: 98.5M : $5.00= $492.5M US$388M:    N/A :    $ 0  :
’24, Wt.$2.21: 10.4M :    “   “  = $ 52.0M US$ 41.M: $2.21: $23.0M
’23, Wt. $5.40:  3.3M :    “   “  = $ 16.5M US$ 13.M: $5.40: $17.8M
’23, Wt. $6.50:   7.1M :   “   “  = $ 35.5M US$ 28.M: $6.50: $46.1M
’22-24 Wts.   :    6.5M :   “   “  = $  32.5M US$    7.M: $4.00e $26.0M
’22-26, Opts.:     2.5M :   “   “  = $  12.5M US$  10.M: $4.00e $10.0M
Cv. Debent’s :    3.8M :    “   “  = $  19.0M US$  15.M: $4.75: $18.0M
Fully Dilluted 132.1M : $5.00= $660.5M US$520M: Cash: $141.M
Less Cash on exercise.   Less : (140.9M) <-------------------------- v v
                        : Net MktCap :       $519.6M  = $409M =
Segovia.       :     1.45 M oz. :  Prod.:  200k + oz. Ongoing
Toroparu.     :      7.35 M oz. :  Prod.: 200k ? oz.  From 2024?
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M oz. :  = $ 63.00:  US$49.30/ oz
==================== : ========
                Less Portfolio Value : C$ 337.M: 
                               Net MktCap : C$ 183M:   $144M
Ttl.Resource. /   8.80 M pz. :  = $ 20.75:  US$16.37/ oz

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GCM now moving up as GDXJ falls

Chart update: Flip: 10d/  GCM: C$5.25 / GDXJ: 40.48 = 12.96%, recent low was ?? %

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GCM vs .. update: xx

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===

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Canaccord Initiates Coverage - Expecting a DOUBLE


GCM.t ... Weekly : 10d / Last: C$4.78 + 2.36%

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Ratio:  GCM.t to UGL:

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Price: C$4.75.        TARGET: C$9.50
 
On the path to becoming a LatAm mid-tier producer
Investment Recommendation: BUY

We are initiating coverage of Gran Colombia Gold (GCM-TSX) with a BUY rating and a C$9.50 target price.

 Gran Colombia is a South America-focused gold producer operating the Segovia underground complex in Colombia and advancing the
recently acquired Toroparu project in Guyana. The company produces ~200koz/year from Segovia, and we believe with Toroparu it has the potential to double production to ~400koz in the next few years and diversify its production base.

Solid operating record and foundation at Segovia. Segovia is a historic mining district in Colombia that dates back more than 150 years. Gran Colombia acquired Segovia in 2010 and has modernized both the operation and exploration efforts, with the production rate increasing almost four-fold from 400tpd to just under 1,600 tpd currently (a further expansion to 2,000 tpd is expected to be completed later this year). In tandem, gold production has increased from 69 koz in 2011 to 196 koz in 2020 (+186%), with total cash costs declining from $1,254/oz in 2011 to $699/oz in 2020 (-44%). Like many high-grade, narrow-vein underground mines, the operation has more than replaced ounces mined, with its overall resource base increasing to ~2.5 Moz at YE20 from ~1 Moz in 2010. Segovia is located on a prospective large land package with mining on only four of 27 known veins on the property.

Potential to double gold production with Toroparu. In June 2021, Gran Colombia completed the friendly all-share acquisition of Gold X for total consideration of ~$250 million or $24/oz of M&I+I for the Toroparu development project in Guyana – one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the Americas, with a total M&I resource of 7.35Moz plus another 3.15Moz of inferred. Gold X released a 2019 PEA outlining average annual production of 188koz/year at an average AISC of $780 over a 24-year mine life. Initial capex was estimated at $378 million

Updated Toroparu PEA expected imminently. Gran Colombia plans to complete an updated PEA outlining its vision for the project in the next few weeks. We expect an overall smaller operation but with a higher-grade underground operation. Gold production is targeted at 180-200koz/year, effectively doubling the company's current gold output. We expect initial capex to be at or below the 2019 PEA of $378 million. Our base case NPV for Toroparu is based on the Gold X PEA with more conservative operating and capital cost estimates, and a 7% discount rate, pending more details about Gran Colombia’s plan, which we expect should improve the economics.

Solid balance sheet and well funded for Toroparu. We believe the company is
well positioned to fund the project, with the net proceeds from a recent $300 million offering of senior unsecured notes combined with $138 million in potential funding from Wheaton Precious Metals, $58 million in cash on hand and ongoing operating cash flow.

Monthly dividend: high yield and modest payout ratio. Gran Colombia pays a monthly dividend of C$0.015/sh, ~3.9% yield, one of the highest in our coverage universe. On our price deck, we estimate a payout ratio of 15%–20% of sustaining FCF.

Re-rating Coming?

Our target multiples are at the lower end of the range we typically use given GCM is currently a single asset producer and with potential development risk at Toroparu. However, we see potential for the company's valuation to rerate higher as Toroparu advances. Gran Colombia is trading at 0.28x NAV and 1.8x 2022E EBITDA, vs. peers at 0.59x and 3.4x, respectively.

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GCM is on the launnchpad

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Globe says gains seen coming quickly at Gran Colombia

2021-09-29 07:39 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Canaccord analyst Carey MacRury began coverage on Gran Colombia Gold with a "buy" ranking. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. MacRury is targeting the shares at $9.50. Analysts on average target the shares at $11.21. Mr. MacRury likes its "solid" operating record and foundation at its Segovia underground complex in Colombia. Mr. MacRury believes the company is "on the path to becoming a Latin American mid-tier producer." As well, he thinks gains are likely to be seen quite quickly at its recently acquired Toroparu project in Guyana. He says in a note: "Gran Colombia's shares have underperformed following the recent acquisition of Gold X. We note that Gran Colombia is trading at 0.5 times NAV on the basis of Segovia alone, suggesting to us that the market is not currently pricing in a lot of value for Toroparu. We expect that to start to change once the company releases its plan and economics for the project and as the project advances. ... We see the potential for the company's valuation to rerate higher as Toroparu advances into production and the company transitions into a more diversified, mid-tier producer."

> more: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!GCM-3145711/C/GCM

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Gran Colombia Announces Third Quarter 2021 Production and Webcast

CHARTS-ytd: Gcm-Gold-GDX, w/RGLD: 10d: Last: C$5.18=us$4.18 / gdx-$43.15= 9.69%

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10d: Last: C$5.04 -0.14=us$4.08 -0.10 / gdxj-$43.99 +0.84 = 9.28% -0.41%

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TORONTO, Oct. 13, 2021 --

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM; OTCQX: TPRFF) announced today that it produced a total of 17,213 ounces of gold at its Segovia Operations in September 2021 bringing the total gold production for the third quarter of 2021 to 49,848 ounces compared with 51,555 ounces from Segovia in the third quarter of 2020. The Company also produced 52,382 ounces of silver at Segovia in the third quarter of 2021, up from 47,560 ounces of silver in the third quarter last year. For the first nine months of 2021, Segovia’s gold and silver production totalled 151,104 ounces and 164,270 ounces, respectively, up from 146,278 ounces of gold and 134,820 ounces of silver in the first nine months of 2020.

Lombardo Paredes, Chief Executive Officer of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company’s latest results, said, “We have maintained a steady pace of production in the third quarter of 2021, which included a planned four-day maintenance shutdown at the Maria Dama plant in July. With our trailing 12-months total gold production from Segovia at the end of the third quarter amounting to 201,187 ounces of gold, up 2% over 2020, we are confident we will meet our production guidance at Segovia for the full year of 200,000 to 220,000 ounces of gold. We are on track to complete our expansion of the Maria Dama plant to 2,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and our mine and brownfield exploration programs are proceeding as planned. In addition, commissioning of the new polymetallic plant at Segovia is nearing completion and we expect to have our first concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2021.

At the end of September 2021, we had a cash position of approximately US$329 million, including the net proceeds ....

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/U-z8372258-U!TPRFF-20211013/U/TPRFF

xx

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