ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

[drbubb]

Four GCM Group co's on one chart ... update: 10d / GCM at $3.98 on 4.01.20=> updated: C$4.46 @4/6/20

Gran Colombia related Companies & Enterprise Value of Deposit

Company —————  (symbol) $ Price: shsOS: MktCap. : Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): 02/24 : $-Value : GcmVl.

Caldas Gold Corp.    (CGC.t. ) : C$1.32: 106.M: $140.0M: x74% : $103.6M: (42.8%): C$2.00: $212.0M, $157M
Gold X Mining Corp. (GLDX.v) : C$1.51: 58.9M: $ 88.9M: x21% : $18.68M:  ( 7.7%): C$2.34: $137.8M, $  29M
Western Atlas Res.  (WA.v.   ) : C$0.06: 80.0M: $  4.80M: x20% : $. 0.90M :  ( 0.4%): C$.085:  $ 6.80M, $ 1.4M
===: Three GCM co’s ====== :  =====:  =====:  $233.7M: ==== : $123.2M: (51.0%) =====> : ======> $187M (44%)
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$3.98: 60.8M : $242.0M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%)

Enterprise Value of the Segovia deposit:
Market Cap : C$242.0M: GCM.t
Fully Dilluted C$306.5M: 88.7M x$3.98=C$ -Cash inflow, ever. ($46.5M)
Compare:
Cash, est.   : C$110.3M:
Three co’s  : C$123.2M:
Debt — —   : ( C$83.5M):
Abv.Items :  C$150.0M: (48.9%)
Ent.Value :  C$156.5M:  51.1% /C$1.42=
======== : US$110.2 M / $1600= 68.9k Oz. vs. 670k oz reported Reserves (just 10.3%)
Notes:
Cash US$84.2M + $20M.est.Q1 -$26.5M= US$77.7 x1.42= $110M
Debs US$68.8M (-$24.1M prepay=$44.7Mx1.42= C$63.5M)+Cv.Debs. C$20= C$83.5M
Exer.: wts.: 12M xC$2.21= C$26.5M + CvDebs: $20M = C$46.5M, ignored options

PRODUCTION. etc - pg.17

= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-jan
Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod'19:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 >  +15.1%
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : 57,882 >  +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 : 56,271 > - 1.56%
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260 : 56k.Est > +4 %
Yr. =  174.2k : 218.0k : 230k.Est
=== :: 2017 ::  2018 ::  2019 ::  2020 ::
Jan.  00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : 18,501: +3.1%
Feb.  00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 : 18.674: -12.5%
Mar.  00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 :
=Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : +15%;
Apr.  00,000: 16,118 :  20,372 :
May 00,000:  18,675 : 18,528 :: 
Jun. 00,000:  18,400 : 18,882 ::
=Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 :   + 9%
July  00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 ::
Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 ::
Sep.  00,000: 19,120 : 19,395 ::
=Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : 56,271 ::
9m.: 122.2k: 162.75k : 174,754 :  + 7%
Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : 20,968 :
Nov.: 17.33K: 18,193 : 21,835 :
11m: 156.8k: 199.0k: 217,600 :
Dec.: 17.33K: 19,002: 22,434 : Monthly record!
=Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : 65,237 : yr: 239,991
======================= ;
2018A: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" :
2019A: "239,991 OZ. est. ,  UP 10% OVER 2018" :
2020 TARGET: 240,000 ?? / 200,000+ Segovia + 35,000 Marmato

= : TWO MINES PRODUCTION /  v 2020-Feb
Two Mines: Combined /  ——— : Segovia / ——— : Marmato/
Mo.:  Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Q1- :  60,601 : 58,000e
Q2- :  57,882  
Q3- :  56,271  
Q4- : 56k.Est  
Yr. =  230k.Est
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  /  16,220 : 16,865  /   1,700e:  1,636 /
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  /  19,196 : 16,548  /   2,000e:  2,126  /
2mo. 39,276 : 37,175  /  35,416 : 33,413  /   3.700e:  3,762  /
Mar.  21,325 :
=Q1:  60,601 :
Apr.   20,372 :
===
Guidance : TwoMines /  ——— : Segovia / —— : Marmato /
Estimate: Low to High  /     Low to High    /.   Low to High.   /
2020 : 232.0k- 257.0k /  200.0k- 220.0k /  32,000-37,000 /
====

USEFUL CALCULATIONS HERE :

Enterprize Value to-Free Cash Flow = GCM is still cheap!

REx5 / Mark to Market Loss on 2024 Warrants

"who give a chit whether you do or don't buy shares?" - agreed lol

12m warrants at $2.21 = $26.5m
1.7m options at $3.20 average = $5.4m
4.21m shares from debentures at $4.75 = $20m
3.26m warrants first sprott at $5.40 = $17.6m
7.14m warrants second sprott at $6.50 = $46.4m

total cash received on full exercise = $115.9m

"As of today, Gran Colombia has 60,812,630 common shares issued and outstanding and, including the effect of warrants, stock options and convertible debentures, the total would be 88,710,189 common shares on a fully diluted basis."

fully diluted:
market cap 88.7m shares x $5.42 = $480.7m
at end of year net debt of 0, + $40m cash from pp + $115.9m = $155.9m cash
EV (enterprise value) $480.7m - $155.9m = $324.8m

EV/FCF = $324.8m/$70m = 4.6

many miners have zero FCF for an EV/FCF of infinity

which ratio would you rather have, 4.6 or infinity?

kirkland lake which generates a huge amount of free cash currently has an EV/FCF of around 30.

name me a company that has an EV/FCF better than 4.6

 

/ 2 /

Calcs. look resonable.
Did you include the 68 million of Gold Notes in there?*

You may want to look at Atico Mining (ATY) : from 2017: $0.37 / updates 5.6.2020: 0.30

Smaller scale, different risks, Gold Copper  plus new good project as well.
Should easiily beat your numbers by year end  if they don't run into problems
and copper doesn't dive.

If I get a chance I will pay you back
Thanks for looking at the brighter side of things.

BTW. I thought we were all here to try to get the other guy to buy, ,,, or was that sell ...
Anyway G'night

*/ 3/

yes the gold notes is within the net debt of zero which does not create shares.

 

[drbubb]

A  good day for GCM : $6.17 +0.35, +6.01% ... 4yr

GCM.wtB: $4.04 +0.20 +5.21%

Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up - 2.14.20
329 views•Feb 14, 2020

Eric Sprott discusses the effect of the worsening pandemic
on the global economy and the impact this will have on precious metal prices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpFgjFGXaC4

Eric feel KL got Detour for a steal -

Gran Colombia Gold Announces Closing of CA$40 Million Private Placement;
Eric Sprott Increases Investment to Approximately 11%

[drbubb]

GCM & Copper

Here's GCM, maybe TOP of channel at: C$6.72 -0.00 = GCM.wtB: C$

Here's Gold-to-Copper

xx

Here's TKO.t to-GCM.t - could it hit 14X, up from 0.63 ?

==

[jerpy]

Brilliant week so far for GCM, after this rise I couldn’t resist banking gains; sold a third of my holding at prices around $6.70.

Patience paid off and now pleased with myself, after much frustration.

[drbubb]

I noticed GCM is not at/near the Top of the Channel, and did some lightening up too.

Basically, if GCM.wtB rises 20%, I sell about 20%, leaving the Gross Amount of my investment at a similar level

[drbubb]

= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-jan
Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod'19:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 >  +15.1%
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : 57,882 >  +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 : 56,271 > - 1.56%
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260 : 56k.Est > +4 %
Yr. =  174.2k : 218.0k : 230k.Est
=== :: 2017 ::  2018 ::  2019 ::  2020 ::
Jan.  00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : 18,501: +3.1%
Feb.  00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 :
Mar.  00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 :
=Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : +15%;
Apr.  00,000: 16,118 :  20,372 :
May 00,000:  18,675 : 18,528 :: 
Jun. 00,000:  18,400 : 18,882 ::
=Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 :   + 9%
July  00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 ::
Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 ::
Sep.  00,000: 19,120 : 19,395 ::
=Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : 56,271 ::
9m.: 122.2k: 162.75k : 174,754 :  + 7%
Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : 20,968 :
Nov.: 17.33K: 18,193 : 21,835 :
11m: 156.8k: 199.0k: 217,600 :
Dec.: 17.33K: 19,002: 22,434 : Monthly record!
=Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : 65,237 : yr: 239,991
======================= ;
2018A: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" :
2019A: "239,991 OZ. est. ,  UP 10% OVER 2018" :
2020 TARGET: 240,000 ?? / 200,000+ Segovia + 35,000 Marmato

===

2020-02-20 09:09

C:GCM

6.40

News Release

Gran Colombia produces 18,501 oz Au in January, 2020

==

[jerpy]

Well I took some more profit during the last session in and around $7. Too fast an ascent not to bank some, so half my holding now gone at a tidy profit.

[drbubb]

I agree, and sold a little more.  I still have plenty shares if it goes on rising

[drbubb]

Gran Colombia completes Marmato mining assets spinoff

2020-02-25 12:16 ET - News Release

Mr. Serafino Iacono reports

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD COMPLETES SPIN-OFF OF MARMATO MINING ASSETS; CALDAS GOLD EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TRADING ON FEBRUARY 28, 2020

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. has completed the previously announced spinoff of its Marmato mining assets (as defined herein) through a reverse takeover (RTO) transaction with Bluenose Gold Corp. The resulting issuer is named Caldas Gold Corp. ("Caldas Gold") and, subject to fulfillment of all of the requirements of the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV"), it is expected that trading of the Caldas Gold shares on the TSXV will commence on or about Friday, February 28, 2020 under the symbol "CGC". Gran Colombia owns approximately 72% of Caldas Gold.

Commenting on the closing of the RTO transaction, Serafino Iacono, Executive Chairman of Gran Colombia, stated, "We are very pleased to complete the spin-out of our Marmato Mining Assets. With total proceeds from the equity financings of approximately CA$21.6 million, Caldas Gold is well capitalized to take the Marmato Project forward as it completes the prefeasibility study for the underground mine expansion in the first half of 2020 and continues drilling the Deep Zone mineralization. The recently released 2019 Phase 2 drilling results have further increased our confidence in the geological model and continue to demonstrate an improvement of grades in the Deep Zone below the 900 meter level versus the mineral resource block model associated with the preliminary economic assessment. In addition, the discovery of a possible new high-grade zone in the Deeps mineralization opens a new scenario for potential resource growth. Today begins a new chapter in the future of the Marmato Project."

. . .

Through completion of a private placement on February 7, 2020 and the RTO transaction, Gran Colombia has acquired an aggregate of 36,250,100 common shares and 7,500,000 share purchase warrants of Caldas Gold with an exercise price of CA$3.00 expiring December 19, 2024. With the common shares controlled by Gran Colombia representing approximately 71.8% of the outstanding common shares of Caldas Gold, Gran Colombia is a "control person" of Caldas Gold. Assuming exercise of the share purchase warrants, Gran Colombia would have control and direction over 43,750,100 common shares representing approximately 75.4% of the then outstanding common shares of Caldas Gold, after giving effect to the exercise of Gran Colombia's warrants but assuming no exercise of any other outstanding warrants or options of Caldas Gold. Prior to the RTO transaction, Gran Colombia did not hold any securities of Bluenose. The shares acquired by Gran Colombia are presently being held only for investment purposes. Gran Colombia may from time to time in the future increase or decrease its ownership, control or direction over securities of the Caldas Gold, through market transactions, private agreements or otherwise.

[drbubb]

Caldas Gold had a good first day after its mediocre life as Bluenose Gold. The company is mining gold at Marmato, in Colombia.

  more...

[drbubb]

WHICH BREAKS FIRST?  GCM Up?  Or DNG Down?

GCM vs DNG : from 2015 : 2yr: 1yr / Last: DNG: c$1.68, GCM: c$6.05 = Ratio-27.8%

Strength in GCM has driven this Ratio down to 27.8%, compared to about 150% about three years ago (1/6th?)

Time to make DNG / Dynacorp, one of our Favorites (with its 3.5% dividend and PER of 9x)?

[drbubb]

GCM hit hard, along with other gold stocks

This may be a buying window

Stock--- : $Last : chg. : %chg.: Yr's H : Differ.
GCM --- :  $4.69: -0.72: -13.3%: $7.47 :-37.2%
Gcm.wtB: $2.70: -0.70: -20.6%: $5.23 : -48.4%
Gcm/wtB: r174%: +r15%
GDXJ -- : 33.46: -3.94: -10.5%: 46.42 : -27.9%
GLD —— : 153.9: -0.55: -0.36%: 159.4 : -3.45%
SIL ------- : 25.62: -1.82: -6.63%: 33.75 : -24.1%
SLV —— : 15.63: -0.10: -0.64%: 18.35 : -14.9%
SIL /SLV : r164%: -r10%

GCM ... 3yr: / vs.wtB: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $4.69: -0.72: -13.3%

GCM.wtB ... 2yr: Last: $2.70 -0.70, -20.59%

===

[drbubb]

KEY SUPPORT:  (just-below) C$3.00 Level looks like Key Long term support

GCM.t /Gran Colombia Gold . 10yrL: 5yr: 4yr: fr. 1/2015: 3y: 2y / C$3.58. LOD: $2.88/ YrH: $7.47= -61.5% (Fibo support!)

: 3yr: 2y / C$3.58. LOD: $2.88

Ratio to GDXJ - nice sold uptrend, then back to a support line

Ratio:  GCM to WM:

GCM might have a better run up than WM.t for a while... assuming the ratio holds mid-channel support.

Else down to the 5 to 5.3 area

==

[drbubb]

Gran Colombia produces 18,674 oz Au in February

"Segovia for 2020 will range between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces" :

= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-Feb
Two Mines: Combined /  ——— : Segovia / ——— : Marmato/
Mo.:  Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Q1- :  60,601 : 58,000e
Q2- :  57,882  
Q3- :  56,271  
Q4- : 56k.Est  
Yr. =  230k.Est
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  /  16,220 : 16,865  /   1,700e:  1,636 /
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  /  19,196 : 16,548  /   2,000e:  2,126  /
2mo. 39,276 : 37,175  /  35,416 : 33,413  /   3.700e:  3,762  /
Mar.  21,325 :
=Q1:  60,601 :
Apr.   20,372 :
===
Guidance : TwoMines /  ——— : Segovia / —— : Marmato /
Estimate: Low to High  /     Low to High    /.   Low to High.   /
2020 : 232.0k- 257.0k /  200.0k- 220.0k /  32,000-37,000 /
====

2020-03-12 / Mr. Lombardo Paredes reports

GRAN COLOMBIA REPORTS FEBRUARY 2020 GOLD PRODUCTION;

FORTHCOMING FOURTH QUARTER AND YEAR END 2019 RESULTS WEBCAST

Gold production from the Segovia and Marmato operations totalled 18,674 ounces in February, bringing the total for the first two months of 2020 to 37,175 ounces.

Lombardo Paredes, Chief Executive Officer of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company's latest production results, said, "Our mines are continuing to perform as expected and we remain on track with our production guidance for 2020. Segovia's production matched the previous month even though February is a couple of days shorter and the plant was shut down for 52 hours for scheduled maintenance. With the replacement of two aging crushers in March, Segovia is expected to see an increase in daily processing rates. At Marmato, the mine optimization and mine design for the transition zone levels 21 and 22 as well as the operational adjustments and incorporation of new mining equipment are all in process. These actions are expected to lead to improvements in Marmato's head grade and monthly gold production in the coming months."

The Segovia Operations produced 16,548 ounces of gold in February, bringing the total production for the first two months of 2020 to 33,413 ounces. Segovia produced a total of 35,416 ounces in the first two months last year benefitting from material sourced from some very high grade stopes at the Providencia mine. Gran Colombia processed an average of 1,269 tonnes per day ("tpd") in February at its Segovia Operations with an average head grade of 15.5 g/t, up from 14.5 g/t last month. The high grade material from Providencia had boosted Segovia's head grade in February 2019 to 21.4 g/t while Segovia's average head grade for all of 2019 was 16.4 g/t. The Company expects that its annual gold production at Segovia for 2020 will range between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces with head grades expected to average approximately 14 g/t (+/- 5%) over the course of the year as it opens additional new areas within its existing three mines and commences production from its Carla mine late in the third quarter of 2020.

At the Marmato Operations, now owned by Caldas Gold Corp. (TSX-V: CGC), the plant processed an average of 1,133 tpd at an average grade of 2.3 g/t resulting in gold production of 2,126 ounces in February. With total gold production for the first two months of 2020 of 3,762 ounces, the Marmato Operations remain on track to produce a total of between 32,000 and 37,000 ounces of gold this year. Gran Colombia owns approximately 73% of Caldas Gold.

[drbubb]

GCM up 6% to $4.24 after this snnouncement

Gran Colombia loses $131.16-million (U.S.) in 2019

2020-03-30 - News Release

Mr. Serafino Iacono reports

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2019 RESULTS; REPLACES 2019 PRODUCTION IN SEGOVIAA S ANNUAL MINERAL RESOURCE AND RESERVE UPDATE

Serafino Iacono, Executive Chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company's results for 2019, said, "We had a very solid year in 2019 with record production and new highs for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and adjusted earnings that helped us to significantly strengthen our balance sheet. Our market capitalization has responded and we were delighted to be acknowledged in the TSX30 and the OTCQX Best 50 based on our share price performance. We are excited about the new company, Caldas Gold, and the opportunity for value creation that lies ahead with the expansion on the underground mining operations at Marmato. Today we have also announced an update on our mineral resources and reserves at Segovia and we are pleased to report that we have not only replaced the mineral resources and reserves we mined last year, but our drilling programs have given us several high priority targets we will be following up in our 2020 drilling program to add more reserves and mine life at this high-grade operation.

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Highlights

As previously announced, Gran Colombia set new quarterly and annual records for gold production in 2019 with 65,237 ounces produced in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 18% over the fourth quarter of 2018, and total annual production for 2019 of 239,991 ounces, up 10% over last year, reaching the upper end of our guidance.

Revenue amounted to $88.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 30% over the fourth quarter last year, getting a boost from the 21% increase in spot gold prices. For 2019, production growth, the higher spot gold and silver prices and the reduction in refining charges all combined to increase annual revenue to $326.5 million, up 22% over last year.

Total cash costs (1) per ounce averaged $685 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with $698 per ounce in the fourth quarter last year, reflecting a reduction in Segovia's total cash cost to $607 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2019 from $623 per ounce in the fourth quarter last year. In 2019, the Company's total cash costs decreased to $661 per ounce from $680 per ounce in 2018.

All-in sustaining costs ("AISC") (1) and All-in costs (1) of $1,003 per ounce and $1,048 per ounce, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2019 reflected increased levels of capital and exploration spending and arbitration-related costs in G&A, compared with $934 per ounce and $951 per ounce, respectively, in the fourth quarter last year. For 2019, AISC and All-in costs per ounce were $916 and $946 per ounce, respectively, compared with $919 and $930, respectively, last year. For 2019, the Company met its guidance with AISC and All-in costs for the full year below $925 per ounce and $950 per ounce, respectively.

The Company reported adjusted EBITDA (1) of $40.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2019, up 71% over the fourth quarter last year, bringing the total for 2019 to $146.7 million, up 43% over 2018. Net cash provided by operating activities in the fourth quarter of 2019 of $34.6 million brought the total for 2019 to $103.3 million, up 30% over last year. The Company's Free Cash Flow (1) in the fourth quarter of 2019 of $22.0 million brought the total for 2019 to $60.6 million, up 38% over last year.

... increasing cash and cash equivalents to $84.2 million at December 31, 2019 from $35.6 million at the end of 2018. At the end of 2019, the aggregate principal amount of Gold Notes issued and outstanding had been reduced through four quarterly repayments in 2019 to $68.8 million, down from $88.3 million at the end of 2018, and the Convertible Debentures stood at CA$20 million.

The Company completed the spin-out of its Marmato Mining Assets through a reverse takeover transaction (the "Bluenose RTO Transaction"). The resulting issuer, named Caldas Gold Corp. ("Caldas Gold"), commenced trading on the TSXV on February 28, 2020 under the symbol "CGC".

As of March 27, 2020, the total issued and outstanding common shares of the Company is 60.8 million and after inclusion of stock options, warrants and the Convertible Debentures, the Company's fully diluted common shares would total approximately 88.7 million.

On March 31, 2020, using a portion of the cash from the 2020 Private Placement, the Company is redeeming 30% of the aggregate principal amount of its Gold Notes at approximately 110% of the principal amount being redeemed, reducing the issued and outstanding balance to $44.7 million.

The Company reported a net loss for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $148.8 million ($2.86 per share) compared with net income of $8.0 million ($0.17 per share) in the fourth quarter last year. The fourth quarter 2019 net loss includes an after-tax impairment charge of $153.6 million associated with the Company's exploration and evaluation assets in Zona Alta and Echandia at the Marmato Project

Outlook

The Company started 2020 with the completion of two significant transactions in February. The CA$40 million non-brokered private placement that closed in early February enables the Company to deleverage its balance sheet and reduce its debt service costs with an early redemption at the end of March of 30% of the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes issued and outstanding. The spin-out of the Marmato Mining Assets in Zona Baja into Caldas Gold, in which the Company holds a 74.4% equity interest, in late February sets the stage for Caldas Gold to move toward the eventual financing and development for the expansion of the existing underground mining operation to incorporate the Deeps mineralization. Caldas Gold is proceeding with the preliminary feasibility study ("PFS") which should be completed by mid-2020 and has started a 15,000 meters drill program aimed at extending the Main Zone down-plunge, from the 650-level down to the 400-level. The drilling program also aims to test the hanging-wall and footwall of the Main Zone, looking for satellite bodies and a replica of the Deeps Zone.

In February 2020, the Company provided its annual production guidance for this year. At its Segovia Operations, total gold production for the first two months of 2020 amounted to 33,413 ounces and the Company indicated at the time that it expects its annual gold production at Segovia for 2020 will range between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces. Head grades averaged 15 g/t through the first two months of 2020 and are expected to average approximately 14 g/t (+/- 5%) over the course of the full year as the Company opens additional new areas within its existing three mines and commences production from its Carla mine late in the third quarter of 2020. Caldas Gold also indicated at the time that it expects that with the implementation of the optimized mine plan envisioned in the 2019 preliminary economic assessment ("PEA"), the existing Marmato mine will produce a total of between 32,000 and 37,000 ounces of gold in 2020.

The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020. COVID-19 has spread globally, and actions taken in response to COVID-19 have interrupted business activities and supply chains; disrupted travel; contributed to significant volatility in the financial markets, resulting in a general decline in equity prices and lower interest rates; impacted social conditions; and adversely impacted local, regional, national and international economic conditions, as well as the labor market. To date, COVID-19 has not had any significant impact on production or product shipments at Segovia and Marmato. However, the Company has activated its business continuity program at its mine sites in Colombia in response to a national quarantine that went into effect on March 25, 2020 and is expected to continue through to mid-April and possibly longer. To the extent possible, the Company expects that the mines at Segovia and Marmato will continue to operate during the quarantine period, leveraging stockpiled material and supported by a contingent of employees, both Company and contractor,...

[drbubb]

Segovia Operations -- Mineral Resource and Reserve Update

Gran Colombia also announced today that it has completed updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimates for its Segovia Operations prepared in accordance with the Canadian Institute of Mining Metallurgy and Petroleum ("CIM") Definition Standards incorporated by reference in National Instrument 43-101 ("NI 43-101") with an effective date of December 31, 2019. Highlights of the December 31, 2019 MRE update include:

Total Measured & Indicated Resources increased to 3.6 million tonnes at a grade of 11.7 g/t totalling 1.36 million ounces of gold, up 2% from last year.

Total Inferred Resources increased to 4.1 million tonnes at a grade of 9.6 g/t totalling 1.27 million ounces of gold, up 9% compared to last year.

The Company replaced Mineral Resources mined in 2019 and the largest increases came at the El Silencio and Sandra K mines.

The updated MRE continues to reaffirm confidence in the high grade nature of the Segovia gold deposits.

The MRE for Las Verticales and Carla have not been updated as no new information is currently available and the previous estimates for these projects remain valid.

Derived from the Amended NI 43-101 Technical Report Prefeasibility Study Update, Segovia Project, Colombia, dated July 8, 2019, prepared by SRK Consulting (US) Inc. ("SRK").

[drbubb]

update : w- WA: 10d:

About Gran Colombia Gold Corp.

Gran Colombia is a Canadian-based mid-tier gold producer with its primary focus in Colombia where it is currently the largest underground gold and silver producer with several mines in operation at its high-grade Segovia Operations. Gran Colombia owns approximately 74% of Caldas Gold Corp., a Canadian mining company currently advancing a prefeasibility study for a major expansion and modernization of its underground mining operations at its Marmato Project in Colombia. Gran Colombia's project pipeline includes its Zancudo Project in Colombia together with an approximately 21% equity interest in Gold X Mining Corp. (TSXV: GLDX) (Guyana - Toroparu) and an approximately 20% equity interest in Western Atlas Resources Inc. ("Western Atlas") (TSX-V: WA) (Nunavut - Meadowbank).

[drbubb]

BULLBOARD Highlights

+ Colombian Peso Hits Decade Low  by  Moogul
This will help opp costs big time in q1.

 + Results out - released excellent revenue and cash flow but the Company recorded an impairment charge in the amount of $176.0 million related to the Marmato Mining Assets.

quarter 2019 net loss includes an after-tax impairment charge of $153.6 million associated with the Company’s exploration and evaluation assets in Zona Alta and Echandia at the Marmato Project. For 2019, the net loss amounted to $131.2 million ($2.65 per share) compared with a net loss of $3.4 million ($0.10 per share) last year.

The big charge means nothing...just accounting... It has to do with offloading the asset way below the carried book value (just look at gcm p/b) vs market value of the shares it now holds.... basically resetting the book value for Marmato but it still effectively owns the entire asset. 

(just) some junk exploration asset write offs not included in Marmato deeps expansion.
if anyone thought we we were getting any SP value for this anyways, they are crazy  

... when the company hasn't mined or explored an area for effectively the last 5 years due to illegal miners and have had litigation in he works for years you should always assume it's worth zero and any investor would but the company obviously held out hope that the government would fix the situation. Now they just don't care and are bitting the bullet on a non-cash (accounting write off).... fine by me. The Marmato value is in its Baja mine and more importantly it's expansion to include the deeps mineralization. This is all inside CGC. And yes just like any other effective resource stock (small current prod), it's SP is going to be volatile especially considering the covid fallout.

Excellent results

All-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) (1) and All-in costs (1) of $1,003 per ounce and $1,048 per ounce, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2019 reflected increased levels of capital and exploration spending and arbitration-related costs in G&A, compared with $934 per ounce and $951 per ounce, respectively, in the fourth quarter last year. For 2019, AISC and All-in costs per ounce were $916 and $946 per ounce, respectively, compared with $919 and $930, respectively, last year.

 

They estimated 200,000 - 220,000 ounces for 2020.  If they continue to have an all in sustaining cash costs averaging around $900-950, they could easily come in with $140 million free cash flow. !!

Currently on a free cashflow run rate of $25-35 million USD per quarter with effectively no net debt. 

I'll gladly take your shares tomorrow or others who panick over a foreseeable write down of some garbage non-producing / effectively unexplored asset.

RE:2019 earning per share $1.22 USD

today they the outstanding amount of the Gold Notes will be reduced to 44 million USD ..after the Sprott PP cash-balance after todays repayment of the Notes  and the Caldas PP earlier this year will be near 90 million USD ...   interest payments willl go down significantly , cash still is flowing in ...     the marketcap of 170 million USD is absolutely strange... you get GoldX, Caldas,Zancudu and half of the Segovia-mine for free       GCM is debt-free now (net of cash)  

 

[jerpy]

Still holding my nerves, you can’t have mine.

[drbubb]

Four GCM Group co's on one chart ... update: 10d / GCM at $3.98, close on 4.01.20

Gran Colombia related Companies & Enterprise Value of Deposit

Company —————  (symbol) $ Price: shsOS: MktCap. : Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): 02/24 : $-Value : GcmVl.

Caldas Gold Corp.    (CGC.t. ) : C$1.32: 106.M: $140.0M: x74% : $103.6M: (42.8%): C$2.00: $212.0M, $157M
Gold X Mining Corp. (GLDX.v) : C$1.51: 58.9M: $ 88.9M: x21% : $18.68M:  ( 7.7%): C$2.34: $137.8M, $  29M
Western Atlas Res.  (WA.v.   ) : C$0.06: 80.0M: $  4.80M: x20% : $. 0.90M :  ( 0.4%): C$.085:  $ 6.80M, $ 1.4M
===: Three GCM co’s ====== :  =====:  =====:  $233.7M: ==== : $123.2M: (51.0%) =====> : ======> $187M (44%)
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$3.98: 60.8M : $242.0M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%)
Enterprise Value of its deposit:
Market Cap : C$242.0M
Fully Dilluted C$306.5M: 88.7M x$3.98=C$ -Cash inflow, ever. ($46.5M)
Compare:
Cash, est.  : C$110.3M:
Three co’s  : C$123.2M:
Debt — —   : ( C$83.5M):
Abv.Items :  C$150.0M: (48.9%)
Ent.Value :  C$156.5M:  51.1% /C$1.42=
======== : US$110.2 M / $1600= 68.9k Oz. vs. 670k oz reported Reserves (10.3%)
Notes:
Cash US$84.2M + $20M.est.Q1 -$26.5M= US$77.7 x1.42= $110M
Debs US$68.8M (-$24.1M prepay=$44.7Mx1.42= C$63.5M)+Cv.Debs. C$20= C$83.5M
Exer.: wts.: 12M xC$2.21= C$26.5M + CvDebs: $20M = C$46.5M, ignored options
========

670k GOLD RESERVES, at what Profit margin?
Pct-: OZ.s- : $1400> per sh.  / $1600> per sh. / $1700 / $1800> per sh. / $2000> per sh. /
10%;   67.0k: $93.8M: $3.79 / $107.M: C$4.00 / C$4.12/ $121.M: $4.23 / $134.M: C$4.43 /
15%: 100.5k: $141.M: $4.55 / $161.M: C$4.86 / C$5.02/ $181.M: $5.18 / $201.M: C$5.51 /
20%: 134.0k: $188.M: $5.29 / $214.M: C$5.71 / C$5.93/ $241.M: $6.15
25%: 167.5k: $235.M: $6.05 / $268.M: C$6.58 / C$6.85/ $302.M: $7.12
25.5%: ====> =====> ===== / =====> =====> / C$6.94/
30%: 201.0k: $281.M: $6.78 / $322.M: C$7.44 / C$7.76/ $362.M: $8.08
===

ASSUMPTIONS: to get to above…

Start with Gold Value (c.f.: $107M= 10% @$1600)
+ Convert to CAD (x1.42): C$152M
+ Add C$203M, for the following:
: Add 3cos & other items (C$156M) = C$308M
: Add. Cash inflow from execises (C$47M) = C$355M
= Value, fully diluted = C$355M

[drbubb]

NEW REPORT OUT on GCM's 4th Qtr

Gran Colombia Gold (OTCPK:TPRFF) reported good Q4 2019 financial results.

The company produced 65,237 toz gold, which is a new quarterly record. Compared to Q3, gold production increased by 16% and compared to Q4 2018, it increased by 18%. Also the overall 2019 production set a new record, at 239,991 toz gold. The majority of production (214,241 toz gold) is attributable to the Segovia mine, the remaining 25,750 toz gold were produced at the Marmato mine.

Source: Own processing, using data of Gran Colombia Gold

Although Gran Colombia's gold production increased notably in Q4, the unit production costs didn't decline. While the total cash costs remained almost unchanged, at $685/toz, the increased sustaining capital expenditures pushed the AISC up to the $1,003/toz level. It represents a 5.5% growth in comparison to Q3, and a 7.4% growth in comparison to Q4 2018.

Source: Own processing, using data of Gran Colombia Gold

The increased production volume, as well as strong gold prices, helped Gran Colombia's revenues to reach a new record high in Q4. The company recorded revenues of $88.5 million, which is 11% more than in Q3 and 35% more than in Q4 2018. The strong revenues were reflected also by improved operating cash flow that amounted to $34.6 million. It increased by 13% quarter-over-quarter and by 47% in comparison to Q4 2018. The overall 2020 operating cash flow crossed the $100 million mark.

 

Although the Q4 operating cash flow was strong, the net income looked scary. Gran Colombia recorded a net loss of $148.9 million, which means EPS of -$2.86. However, the huge loss was caused only by an impairment charge of $153.6 million associated with the Marmato project. The impairment charge was made because the carrying value of Marmato was over $190 million, while Gran Colombia made a spin-off of this asset assigning it a fair value of $44.2 million. An adjusted Q4 net income equaled $17.1 million and the adjusted EPS equaled $0.33.

Source: Own processing, using data of Seeking Alpha and Gran Colombia Gold

The strong cash flows helped to boost Gran Colombia's balance sheet. The cash position increased to $84.2 million, which is 33% more than in Q3 and 137% more than in Q4 2018. However, it is important to note that the growth of the cash on hand volume was partially caused also by a C$15 million (approximately $10.7 million) private placement that occurred in early November.

> source: https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=30870993

[drbubb]

My Current valuation of just under $5.00 at Gold price of $1600 is based on...

Market Value of non-Mining assets plus 15-20% of Segovia's Mineable Gold Reserves

(see assumptions above) :

Recent level was just 10.3% of Mineable reserves, clearly undervalued!

I think this means that the Mine was valued at just US$110M = 69k ounces,
that is only about 10% of the 670,000 Mineable Reserve of Segovia, which keeps growing.

xx - Using same 15% of 670k oz, and 20%, we would get...
Pct. : $1400 : $1500 : $1600 : $1700 : $1800 : $1900 : $2000 : Gold, US$
10%: $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : GCM, C$
15%: $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : GCM, C$
20%: $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : $0.00 : GCM, C$
====
Peak: $1692:
20.0% $7.47: > ook/ 670k oz. on 2/24/20; TPRff: US$5.62 (0.332%)

Note that another way of looking at this might be...

GCM.t / TPRff to Gold Ratio: High: xx, Recent Low: xx, latest 0.18%

==

 

[drbubb]

On 1/10/2020 at 10:40 PM, drbubb said:

The "favored three" is led by this one, GCM.t, Gran Colombian Gold:

4yrs > see: GCM thread

update :

== / updated: C$4.46 @4/6/20

[drbubb]

Goldspot / Gran Colombian Gold

By the way, it's interesting, because the quant model led me into another company called Goldspot Discoveries Inc. (SPOT:TSX.V), which I became the chairman of, and invested in. We've had a very unstable investor who has been blowing up the stock. But I went into this company because it has artificial intelligence (AI) at the core. We have nine people on the Goldspot team with doctorates. Did you know that a Ph.D. in Silicon Valley is worth $5 million? We have nine of them. That's worth US$45 million or CA$60 million. This is a company with a $10 million market cap that's profitable when we take a look at the turn. And it has leverage from the upside, because it gets stock positions and royalties on some of the junior mining.

Major figures in mining like Eric Sprott own a big piece. We have Elliott Management Corp., through its Triple Flag Mining Finance. It is a major shareholder, like ourselves. It has a huge institutional sponsorship. But one of the early founders is basically liquidating his stock, looking for other adventure investing, and it's provided just a great opportunity to accumulate. And I like it because it's technology based, and it has helped Rob McEwen find a couple new discovery holes. Hochschild's chief financial officer is on the board, and the company has used it to remap everything in Peru. It found it extremely useful. I think this technology applied to mining is going to be the future.

TGR: Earlier you said that precious metals mining hasn't seen innovation equivalent to fracking in the oil industry, and is unlikely to, but it sounds like this could be the closest thing to it.

FH: Yes, it could be. It diminishes the risk of exploration spending. When Goldcorp was using IBM's Watson—IBM didn’t have nine Ph.D. geoscientists that we have, along with 11 other scientists.

Goldspot is doing work for Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (GCM:TSX). That's another one of those stocks I've recommended before, especially its gold notes listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It pays 8.25%. When gold is above $1,250/ounce, it pays a higher yield. So I'm enjoying a 12% coupon. The rest of the world is going to zero interest rates. It's in our mutual funds, and guess what? It covers all the fund expenses. You only have to have 5%, and it's very stable. But it has a high, high yield. So we've gotten our money back already, once when we first made that initial investment from the coupon. Gran Colombia is now using Goldspot to help fast-track the development of its production in Colombia.

Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE; YAU:LSE) is using Goldspot's technology too. The chairman of Yamana has told me that he finds it exceptional—a detailed analysis—and it helps identify locations the company never thought of.

Eric Sprott loves it. He's a big shareholder. He's used it and continues to use it.

So Goldspot is growing. It has a new product that's very inexpensive for the junior explorers, like $50,000, to help organize all their data and to give them, basically, a screening positioning, so they can become more digital and coordinate all of the different geoscientists for that. Then if they want detailed mapping on the ground, etc., that will cost hundreds of thousands of dollars more. But it has that product that I think the junior explorers need to help them get caught up with this digital world.

> https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2019/10/23/frank-holmes-gold-is-going-to-10-000

 

[drbubb]

GCM warrants have kept pace with strong Wallbridge - I bought Both near March Lows

GCM.wtb vs WM.t .. update: GCM.t: $5.60 +18.4%, Gcm.wtB: $3.95 +25.4%, WM.t: $0.72 +14.3% (Monday)
Vs. March Low: GCM.t ($2.88) +94%, GCM.t ($1.31) +202%, WM.t ($0.32) +125%,

(Billionaire) Eric Sprott says GCM.T trading at 2X earnings April 9th/20

April 13, 2020 / Eric Sprott says GCM.T is trading at 2X earnings April 9th/20 Listen in at 19 min mark.

To summarize: Mr. Sprott’s only recommendation on an individual gold company in his weekly podcast is Gran Columbia.  He said:” Gran Columbia is the cheapest gold company out there”, “ trading at TWO TIMES EARNINGS”. ...read more

PODCAST: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sprott-money-news/id724663687?i=1000470987408