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WOW!  "Do the Math!" (on the influx of Chinese workers into Manila & PH)

Landlords big winners as Philippines bets on Chinese gaming boom

Over 100,000 Work permits for Chinese (& others come w/o permits)

There are only about 120,000 condo units in Greater Manila.  Do the math !

"Any Filipino landlords are laying out welcome mats for the surging number of Chinese coming to Manila to work in online gaming companies taking sports and casino bets, undeterred by simmering anti-China sentiment and a common perception that Chinese are taking Filipino jobs.

“I was afraid at first because I heard so many bad things abut Chinese tenants but I was convinced later on when my friends told me they were doing the same”, said Tessie.

“It’s benefiting people like me who need to earn”, said the 63-year-old housewife.

Her home is close to a two-tower office building where five of the nine floors are used by Chinese gaming firms. A Chinese restaurant and Chinese tea shop downstairs do brisk trade. "

. . . MORE : scroll down >


Check out this Meetup with Manila Real Estate Investors http://meetu.ps/e/GTWpN/1Gk3J/d

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ROLLING OVER?  A Big Drop Ahead !

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30.


Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000

 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10%


Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019


If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway.

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At current price levels, in this challenging environment...
I have become Bearish... and Three Key PH Property stocks have confirmed that view

PH Property Stocks


Will we see LOWER PH Property PRICES?? 

The supply of Properties for Sale is going to surge because:

1. Properties still being delivered, and new ones started.  Few projects will be stopped. 

2. People who are afraid will stop buying,

3. Banks will not finance large final payments, when the what is left to pay is BELOW the realistic marlet value of the property, This will force those who cannot make the last payment to sell

4. Flippers will aim to flip to exit their property speculations, if they can,

5. Chinese buyers, who cannot get back to PH will try to unload what they have bought/  

WHERE ARE THE BUYERS who will absorb all this supply?

Even if they are there, what price will they be willing to pay now??

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On another chat I posted this: I said:

"I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. 

Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market.  And ALI peaked in mid-2019. 

The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ...

Update ALI & CHI data


Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020,

The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.

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Where NEXT?  Will there be a Wave C Rally for Property Shares?

Core 4 ... update: 10d / ALI: 29.30, DMC: 4.27, MEG: 2.96, SMPH: 30.45 ... updated 10/16/20


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PROPERTY PRICE DROPS - how big?  how long?

Leechiu is spinning....  SIMPLY UNBELIEVABLE:  (see below):  1% Drop?  In primary market
(Reality that i am seeing in the secondary marlet is 20-30% or more below pre-covid prices)

3Q2020 Price Per Sqm of Current Supply
• Average price of primary units in major CBDs are increasing by 1% to 4% from major price decrease in 2Q2020
    Capital values in BGC softens by another 1% bringing to an average price decrease of 6% since 1Q2020
    Developers are extending their lower reservation fees, lower down payment and flexible payment scheme   

(They need to start cutting prices, or risk losing nearly ALL their sales... 

Since the gap down to the secondary market just gets bigger & bigger)


PHIPROP - Philippine Property Average. Tuesday 11.23 Close: 3,566.62

PHL Property Stock Index, Monthly chart since 2008 - does the BREAK we saw in Q1 2020  still matter? 

I think it shows us that the Long Cycle of about 18-20 years has rolled over now, and we are set for 2-4 more YEARS of weak property prices in Manila, especially in Condo prices.  The evidence:  Residential vacancies have shot up, and rents are sliding.  Meantime, many new condos are under construction and are headed towards completion.  I can see buildings with maybe 10,000 units in Makati that will be completed by or before 2024.

SMPH -etc. vs.. 2yr: 6mo: from 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ SMPH:38.50, ALI:39.00, MEG:3.90 vs.PSEI:7,109, UKX:6,334


YTD: 10d/ vs.PSEI: 7,109, SMPH: 38.50, ALI: 39.00, MEG: 3.90



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