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BUBBLE Debate: Is there a Bubble in PH Property?

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CAN IT HAPPEN in the Philippines?  (IT= Bursting Property Bubble)

Seems impossible now.  But is it?

Frank Zappa - It Can't Happen Here / Album:Freak Out! (1966)

Hong Kong Real Estate Prices Fall Most Since 2008

  • The monthly home price index fell 3.5 per cent to 366.3 in November, up from 2.56 per cent in October
  • Largest fall in a single month since November 2008

Prices of lived-in homes in Hong Kong saw the sharpest decline in a single month in November since the global financial crisis in 2008.

HK$ per sq ft of saleable area : Nov 2018 HK$22,714 : 


Source: Midland Realty

The monthly home price index, which represents movements in the secondary property market, fell 3.5 per cent to 366.3 in November, compared to the 2.56 per cent slide in October, 1.27 per cent in September and 0.05 per cent in August, according to data from the Rating and Valuation Department.

Home prices have slumped 7.2 per cent after peaking in July following a 28-month surge starting in April 2016,

. . . “It is the largest fall in a single month since November 2008,” said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacrop Properties.

Home price plunged 8.22 per cent in November 2008 and hit the year’s low of 104.8 in December. After a three-month decline, home prices began to rebound in January 2009.

A number of investment banks and analysts have forecast that property prices will continue to fall, with some predicting declines of as much as 25 per cent next year.

Denis Ma, head of research at property consultants JLL, expects home prices to fall at least 15 per cent in 2019.

(PRIMARY Prices UNDER Second hand):

“Part of the reason why prices fell at a faster rate in November was because developers started putting more projects on to the market in the previous months. The flurry of new launches has seen sell-through rates fall as developers also scrambled to find buyers,” Ma said.

Buying interest also remained weak.

“Home sales in the secondary market plunged 67 per cent over the weekend with just one flat sold,” said Willy Liu, a director at Ricacrop Properties, which monitors 10 major housing estates in Hong Kong.

Sino Land has been offering flats at its Grand Central development in Kwun Tong at prices that are 14 per cent lower compared to those nearby, luring home seekers away from the secondary market.

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BUBBLE BURSTING DEFERRED! (back in Jan. 2019, 2023 update shows what happened)

Falling Libor rate helped to "save" Philippine Property stocks in early 2019

: Update : Propx3 : SMPH: P38.35 / ALI: P32.65 / MEG: P2.13 / DLBR: N/A ( Jan. 2023 chart, below)


OLD: Original : Propx3 : SMPH: P39.00 / ALI: P44.35 / MEG: P5.00 / DLBR: 18.80 ( Jan. 2019 chart, below)


SMPH: P39.00


Foreign investors looking to invest in the Philippines will be very aware of Libor rates.

And there will be a correlation between US Libor and interest rate pressures in PHL.

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POGOs to drive PHL property mart, but challenges seen

REAL ESTATE consultancy JLL Philippines said China’s contributions to the Philippine real estate market are critical, noting how the presence of Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) offset the slowdown of business process outsourcing (BPO) companies’ expansion in 2018.

+ increasing presence of Chinese nationals employed by POGOs in the Manila Bay Area. With more POGOs operating in Metro Manila, their employees have also started occupying nearby residential developments.

+ a surge in demand for residential properties in the Bay Area and nearby business districts, panelists during Lamudi’s round table discussion noted

+ taking in POGOs as tenants has been challenging.

“It’s true that the POGO employee is not necessarily the most dedicated, most likely don’t speak English….Ultimately you need a certain discipline,” Mr. Vicic said.

For Anchor Land Holdings, Inc. (ALHI) President Digna Elizabeth L. Ventura, having Chinese tenants means cooperating with POGOs to ensure their workers comply with building rules. “We’re working closely with the operator and making sure that the property management controls the situation and makes these people follow the rules,” Ms. Ventura said during the round table discussion. Mr. Vicic said they are recommending that landlords keep a balanced mix of tenants in their properties, given the challenging nature of POGOs.

+ RENTS & ...

Prices have accordingly risen following the surge in demand for residential projects in the Bay Area. With this, JLL Philippines Head of Research and Consulting Janlo delos Reyes said that local property buyers are being pushed toward the fringes.

“Prices are at around P300,000 per square meter, and that’s comparable to Makati and Bonifacio Global City. What’s happening is the Bay Area is pushing the domestic market away from that community, not only in terms of the sale but also in terms of the rents,” Mr. delos Reyes said.

“The local market is unable to keep up with that kind of pricing. Some of them are being pushed toward the fringes and other areas.”


> SO: Old MOA tenants are moving to "fringe" places like Taft Avenue, where prices & rents were lower.  Avida has a big project there called PRIME TAFT

Lamudi Philippines Chief Executive Officer Bhavna Suresh said that moving toward the provinces will be good for the country in the future.

“The only flip side there is infrastructure needs to catch up, we need to move our offices to these outskirt areas too,” Ms. Suresh said.

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Strong demand for condos, worker dorms seen this year

BusinessWorld Online-1 Jan 2019
The worsening traffic in Metro Manila is pushing young ... Meanwhile, the luxury condominium market shows no signs of slowing, ... business districts such as the Manila Bay Area,” Mr. Bondoc noted. ... a volatile interest rate environment should entice local developers to ... 2018 BusinessWorld Publishing.
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DANGEROUS CRACKS in New buildings? 

Expert warns Australia could turn into slums in 20 years | 60 Minutes Australia

"there was a threat of it maybe falling over... just 4 months after it opened"

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It seems PH property is becoming more difficult to acquire for foreigners from PH developers as the above link

seems to indicate that all foreign slots for all Megaworld buildings (except Madison) are occupied now

so nothing available from the Megaworld.

It is the same thing that I read about Avida Southpoint. I believe all foreign slots also gone.

So PH property is getting more attractive for foreign buyers.

SMDC Sail residences. Just launched. We can just bet on it that within 20-30 days

all foreign slots will be gone as well.


Just my two cents.

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" It is the same thing that I read about Avida Southpoint. I believe all foreign slots also gone. "

I was told last week that Southpoint Tower-1 had sold out its 20% allocation for Mainland China, but not for all foreigners

MEG stock : chart : at P5.80, it looks like an interesting Selling point - unless you think it can breakout


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SKepticism & Chaos

(Thanks to ECB who found this):

Why own a condo in the Philippines? Does it make sense?

How do you look at the economics of buying a condo? This will explain the condominium buying process in the Philippines, as well as explore a foreigner’s view of the financial benefit of condominium ownership.

MEANTIME... If THESE protests spread, it will not bode well from PH property

1,000 Filipinos protest against China 'invasion'

Anti-China protesters raising clenched fists and national flags while shouting slogans during a protest in front of the Chinese embassy in the financial district of Manila yesterday, as policemen stand guard. The marchers, numbering about 1,000, disp
Anti-China protesters raising clenched fists and national flags while shouting slogans during a protest in front of the Chinese embassy in the financial district of Manila yesterday, as policemen stand guard. The marchers, numbering about 1,000, dispersed peacefully after the demonstration.

They oppose Beijing's growing sway amid South China Sea tensions

MANILA • Protesters descended on the Chinese embassy in Manila yesterday to oppose the Asian superpower's growing sway in the Philippines and as tensions rise over Beijing's presence in the disputed South China Sea.

Filipino flag-waving marchers chanted "China out" and brandished a banner saying "Defend our sovereign rights", referring to Beijing's expansive claims to the resource-rich waterway.

"The government headed by President (Rodrigo) Duterte is not responding. What China is doing is almost an invasion," marcher Alex Legaspi, a 53-year-old teacher, said.

Mr Duterte has been criticised at home as being too eager to grow ties with Beijing, and giving up too much leverage on the South China Sea issue.


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More warnings:

"POGO, relying on overseas demand for online gaming, may be subject to disruption if foreign governments begin regulating the players and facilities or even restricting capital flows into this business. More directly, if the large number of foreign workers in POGO and other sectors are prohibited from working in the Philippines, then the residential property market would lose a significant pool of clients.


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Chinese Money Triggers a Dizzying Rally in Manila Property


In Manila’s main financial district and its fringes, signs of the new inhabitants are everywhere: the restaurants serving steaming Chinese hotpots and dumplings, the Mandarin broadcasts at the Mall of Asia, and the soaring property prices.

An estimated 100,000 migrants, mostly Chinese, have flooded into pockets of the Philippines capital since September 2016, and the deluge is rippling through the city’s real estate market in ways that are unique among the world’s urban centers. While Chinese investors have been snapping up big swathes of high-end housing in Hong Kong, London and New York for years to move their money offshore, this new rush is motivated by something different: Manila’s booming gaming industry.


More than 50 offshore gambling companies that cater to overseas Chinese punters have received permits to operate in the city since President Rodrigo Duterte’s government began awarding licenses 19 months ago. While bets are placed remotely, the operators need Chinese speakers in Manila to handle everything from marketing and customer queries to payment processing for overseas clients.

The resulting migration, while only a fraction of the metropolitan area’s 12.9 million population, is propelling home prices to record levels in neighborhoods favored by Chinese workers. It’s reinvigorating Manila’s commercial property market as owners convert offices and shops into gaming centers with card tables and webcams. And it’s boosting the bottom lines of local developers including Ayala Land Inc. and SM Prime Holdings Inc.

. . .

The influx promises to boost the nation’s economy and is helping to strengthen ties with China -- a priority for Duterte. Yet it leaves the property market vulnerable in the event of an abrupt shift in online gaming or immigration policies from either country.

The perils of relying too heavily on Chinese buyers became painfully obvious last year in the Malaysian enclave of Johor Bahru, which has been grappling with a glut of vacant homes after China imposed controls on investments in overseas property and demand abruptly dried up.

“Concentration risk could be a potential concern,” said Emilio Neri, an economist at the Bank of the Philippine Islands in Manila.


Fast Facts on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators

  • Also known as POGOs
  • Such operations were limited to three provinces north of Manila before Sept. 2016 decision to expand them to the capital region
  • 55 permits for POGOs have been awarded since then
  • 14 of those are engaged in sports betting
  • Revenue from POGOs quintupled to 3.57 billion Philippine pesos ($70 million) in 2017 from a year earlier

Source: Philippine Amusement & Gaming Corp.

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I posted on a viber chat:

"The more I look into the charts, the more Dangerous I think this setup looks!"

PSEI - vs. SMPH, ALI, MEG ... from 8/2016 : VIX : 10d / Last: 7,947, smph: 38.80, ali: 49.00, meg: 4.86 (agi: 11.74)

Why is this Dangerous?
PSEI looks weak, barely holding up, on the bottom of the long term upwards channel.

The upmove in Property stocks, to a likely cyclical peak in JULY, gave PSEI a Right Shoulder (RS#1= "Prop.Peak")

Many Stocks appear to be running out of momentum.
+ After the July peak, MEG stock collapsed as fear of a loss in POGO demand hit the market
+ MEG and PSEI made a low in Sept.  MEG fell xx% (P6.xx > 4.xx), and PSEI fell xx% (0,000 > 0,000)
+ Some of the fears were dismissed, and PSEI rallied back, led by a few "front-liners", like SMPH and ALI.
+ Many other stocks, and PSEI as a whole remained weak. (I made some money trading a bounce in AGI)
+ The front line property stocks appear to be losing momentum

What is NEXT?  
Another drop very possibly, and if this one is sharp enough, it will break the uptrend in PSEI
BE CAREFUL; Take some profits maybe, use some stops (if you like that technique), & hold off on new Buys.

MORE charts & comments at the Link below - scroll down!


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Smooth living is a smart choice that is the offer of <a href="https://smdc-philippines.com/">Condo unit for sale in ortigas</a> . Business and lifestyle meets halfway, with Mall of Asia CBD being home to the country’s BPO giants at the E-Com Centers. S Residences gives you that perfect balance of work and play.

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Ah,  An SMDC ad.

"The Good guys" or the DARK SIDE.  Time will tell... months & years after you buy

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The price growth in residential developments, particularly condominiums in Metro Manila, are seen slowing down in the next few years following recent record-high upticks due to the surge of demand from employees of Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO).

Property consultancy firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Philippines’ director for research and consultancy Janlo de los Reyes said this is due to the overlapping price points and shifting market segments in residential developments, particularly in the luxury and upper-middle segments.

From this year through 2022, JLL estimates residential prices to grow at a slower pace of 3.1 percent. Comparatively, data collated by JLL show that residential prices particularly in Makati and Bonifacio Global City have been growing an average of 8.5 percent annually since 2008 until 2019.

> https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2020/01/24/condo-prices-cool-down/

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BREAKDOWN?: PH STOCKS, including Property stocks are showing signs of Breakdown

Only SMPH, of the top 3, have held up well (so far)


PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 5yr : 3yr: from Aug.2016 / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019



With the Property stock peak now about 6months ago, we may soon be seeing some declines in the physical market;

Assuming the property stock peak is indeed in place,

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At current price levels, in this challenging environment...
I have become Bearish... and Three Key PH Property stocks have confirmed that view

PH Property Stocks


Will we see LOWER PH Property PRICES?? 

The supply of Properties for Sale is going to surge because:

1. Properties still being delivered, and new ones started.  Few projects will be stopped. 

2. People who are afraid will stop buying,

3. Banks will not finance large final payments, when the what is left to pay is BELOW the realistic marlet value of the property, This will force those who cannot make the last payment to sell

4. Flippers will aim to flip to exit their property speculations, if they can,

5. Chinese buyers, who cannot get back to PH will try to unload what they have bought/  

WHERE ARE THE BUYERS who will absorb all this supply?

Even if they are there, what price will they be willing to pay now??

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(Starting NEW thread):

PROPERTY PEAK IN PLACE for PH - major price declines ahead in per Sqm Prices

#1: I made the following post on Aug. 31st, 2019: here

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years : from 9.2016 / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property stock peak= July 2019


"If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway"

# 2 :

Just posted this comment on a Viber chat

"I have said in books, interviews, and many times online that...

The Peak in Property stocks,. like above, normally comes 6-12 months AHEAD of the Peak in the physical market.

We are now right in that time frame- the time frame for  the beginning of a big drop in per sqm valuations."

"Within the next 1-2 quarters we are bound to see a very serious drop in Per sqm property prices begin to materialize. 

That is my strong view. And I would expect it to persist for years - maybe into 2023-24"

Here's an UPDATE on the chart above - Starting from Sep.2016 : PSEI vs- SMPH, ALI, MEG



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LONG CYCLE in a Chart: Norm is 18 years: 14 years UP, and 3-5 years Down

Is the Correction over yet?  Rents may have bottom. But secondhand prices may not have bottomed yet - especially: Values of New properties at the time of turnover.


Long Cycle Update: there are Clues in Property stock charts...

How can you find the Cycle in PHL, given the lack of reliable price data? I look at Property developer stock prices

FLI/ Filinvest Land, LAND/ City&Land, SHNG/ Shang ...

All5yr/ FLI-0.88/ SHNG-2.58, LAND-0.84. w/ALI -30.00. Updated to Jan.2023


Notice how... in the last downturn, after the 1996 Peak, prices came down to a Low and bounced off that 2-3 times. 

If we see the same in this Correction, the final Low could get dragged out for a 2-3 more years.

I think the next major LOW may be due at end 2024, +/- one year.

I have stuck with that Timing since mid-2019, before the Peak. I Saw it coming.

The "Big Boys". see it very differently, like Colliers here:


Philippine property recovery spills over into 2023."

Insights & recommendations

The Philippine property market is likely to finish 2022 strong backed by improvement in office deals across the country; higher supply and demand in the Metro Manila pre-selling condominium market; a rebound in mall consumer traffic; and a rise in hotel occupancies and average daily rates (ADRs). We see this optimism persisting through 2023 as recovery prospects are boosted by strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

Office developers should take advantage of a rebound in leasing within and outside Metro Manila by constructing new office towers and offering more flexible workspaces; residential developers should launch new projects, integrating sustainable & green features, as the Metro Manila pre- selling condominium market recovers; while mall operators should brace for more foreign and local retailers as consumer confidence and foot traffic pick up.

OFFICE :  In 2023, we see net take-up improving to 338,600 sq metres (3.6 million sq feet). However, we expect vacancy to rise to about 20.5% as we project the delivery of 603,900 sq metres (6.5 million sq feet) of new supply. Vacancy in Metro Manila will remain supply-driven.

Average office rents in Metro Manila have dropped by 35% since 2020. In our view, rents are likely to decline by another 10% in 2022 before bottoming out in 2023.

RESIDENTIAL : Colliers expects the delivery of 5,600 new condominium units in 2023. About two- thirds of which will be in the Bay Area.

> source: Colliers, Q4.2022

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Makati vs. BGC etc

The big picture is:  There are MORE OFFICES in Makati than BGC. 

But BGC now has more Condo Housing capacity.  For Alabang: the job growth there seems to have failed to keep pace with the Rise in Condo units.  That may be why Condos like LEVELS have such incredibly low occupancy.  The relatively-low 4% growth in Condos in Makati, is the most striking feature in the data.  (On the other hand,  Condos are being added in the Makati fringe - Offices too - and that may not be showing up in the Makati-CBD data

CONDOS, Future Supply
Metro Manila residential stock forecast, end of 2021 and 2024 (units)

AREA…       :  End’21: End’24: Pct.chg
Bay Area.   : 30,260:  44,143: +45.9%
Alabang     :   4,880:    6.370:  +30.5%
BGC / Fort  : 40,320: 43,840:  + 8.7%
Rockwell.    :   5,270:   5,830:  +10.6%
Ortigas.      :  18.730:  21,760:  +16.1%
Makati Cbd: 28,550: 29,680:  + 4.0%
Araneta.      :  4,550:    5,140:  +13.0%
Others         :  9,630:   9,630:  +  0.0%
== TOTAL:  142,190: 166,390: +17.0%

> source: https://www.colliers.com/en-ph/research/philippine-property-outlook-2023-aiming-strong-finish

A QUICK CASE for Makati- in numbers

Assumes 5 SqM/worker, 0% vacancies
Office Sq.M.        Workers: End 2026
Makati  : 3.39M /5= 678k: 3.51 M, 702k
BGC/Ft.: 2.42M /5= 484k: 2.82M, 564k
Ortigas : 2.08M /5= 416k: 2.46M, 492k
Q. City  : 1.53M /5= 306k: 2.19M, 438k
BayArea  1.16 M /5= 232k: 1,58M, 316k
Alabang  788 K /5= 158k: 883 K, 177k
Mak.Frin  570 K /5= 114 k: 872 K, 174k
Ort.Fring  606 K /5= 121k: 804 K, 161k

CAPACITY (At 2.5 people/ Condo.)  
Condos:  Ye’21 :   Ppl. /   Ye’24 Ppl.
Makati : 28,550: 71.4k/ 29,680: 65.3k
BGC/Ft: 40,320: 101.k/ 43,840: 110.K  
Ortigas: 18,730: 46.8k/ 21,760: 54.4k
BayArea 30,260: 75.7k/ 44,143: 110.k
Alabang:  4,880: 12.2k/   6.370: 15.9k

Pct. Workforce : ’21 vs. ’26
Makati : 71.4k 10.5% / 65.3k 9.30%
BGC/Ft: 101. k 20.9% / 110.k 19.4.%
Ortigas: 46.8k 11.3% / 54.4k 11.1 %
BayArea 75.7k 32.6%/  110.k 34.8%
Alabang 12.2k 7.72%/  15.9k 8.99%

ANALYSIS.  Please Note, there is some mismatch in dates...
BUT Here I go, taking a stab...
(Assumes my assumptions are valid too.)

Something like 10-20% of the normal Office workforce
May want to live within walking distance of their offices,

And the rest of the people are willing to commute longer times and distances in order to enjoy cheaper or more spacious accommodation.  There are two exceptions to this Rule:  Manila Bay Area and Alabang, which are at opposite ends of the capacity spectrum.  

Bay Area Condos have a much higher capacity of Housing the potential office workforce in their area.  At Ye’2021 it was 30% and the capacity more or less keeps pace with office completions

Makati has sufficient Condo capacity, to house 10.5% of its (potential) workforce, and that will slide to just 9.3%.

To me, this suggests strongly that MAKATI RENTS will Rise, as inflation pushes wages up, and workers compete with each other to find housing, bidding up Rents.  BGC Capacity will fall too, but it will have TWICE as much capacity as Makati.  This suggests lower rental demand pressure, and significantly lower Rental yields (on today's prices) in BGC.

Manila BAY AREA is a different story...

Condo Capacity '21 / Ye'24 to '26:
BayArea 75.7k 32.6%/  110.k 34.8%

At first glance, the 33-35% Capacity looks alarmingly high - could be bad news for Condo Owners and Landlords.  And it would be very worrying, if Offices and Workers in Manila Bay were exactly the same as in Makati and BGC.  They are not.  There are more POGO type offices, and offices with 24 hour workforce.  There is much more Double-shifting and Triple-shifting.  This means each desk might get used by 2-3 different workers during a typical day, and so you might get much more than one worker for every 5 sq meters of office space.   Another point is that: those workers who finish their work at night, or other awkward times when regular transport may not be available, might have a higher tendency to want to live close to their offices. so they can walk to work and home.  This would BOOST the demand for nearby office space.  So that would help to explain the high Condo capacity numbers in the Bay area. 

But I am concerned,..  POGO businesses have shutdown, many POGO operators have shrunk or left the Philippines.  Others have shifted to other areas, such as Pampanga.  This does not bode well for Rents in Manila bay, demand for Condo spaces may stay week, even as the # of Condo units in the BAY AREA rises, with completions.  The # of Condos is expected to rise by +46% to 44,143: (Capacity for maybe 110k? potential residents) by Year End 2024.  I would not invest there, unless I say very cheap prices in an attractive Condo building.  Rental yields may (continue to) fall anyway.


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 My view  is...

There are THREE PRICES for Property in the Philippines Market:
1. Developers REPLACEMENT value;
Which includes all their costs, land, materials, construction costs plus marketing costs, and the developers profit margins.  This price is “managed” by the developers, and will rarely be a bargain.  The developer might sell at this price on an instalment  basis, and even help the Buyer to obtain finance from an affiliated bank.

Based on what prices are achieved in the secondary market, where the Seller may wait months for the Buyer to get bank finance.  This may require the seller to have a clean title, and keep the unit vacant while they search for buyer.  (Often is near the Zonal valuation of the property, and it may be significantly below NEW List prices of nearby properties.)

The best price the buyer can obtain from Cash buyers within a limited time frame.  The buyer may have to advance funds so the seller can repay the mortgage and then wait for the title.  It may not be possible for the buyer to get bank finance, so they may need to have free cash available,  The buyers are often investors, who will expect to achieve an Yield similar to what they can get from the REIT market (currently 6.5%), or higher than that, if the property is old and/or needs renovation,

( Please compare my detailed description here, with some vague and conflicting descriptions people may use for “Fair Market Value.”  I do people hope people will spread this to add more clarity, for Buyers and Sellers. )

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LUXURY sector to become super saturated? 

The data in this EXCERPT from Colliers Feb'23 report is rather scary,  Can the recent jump in Demand really be sustained long enough to absorb the big upswing in Future Supply?

 "In 2022, the segment accounted for 34% of total condominium units sold, up from 5% in 2021. Colliers also recorded the launch of 6,000 luxury and ultra-luxury units in 2022,
representing 25% of total launches during the period. In our view, take-up from this segment will likely be supported by demand from affluent investors upgrading for their end-use. Investors also acquire these pproperties due to their capital appreciation potential". (haha. Colliers knows the Yield will be pathetically low, so they point to hoped for Capital appreciation - WHAT from These Price levels??


Condominium stock up 6%
As of end-2022, Metro Manila’s condominium stock reached 151,200 units, up 6% from 2021.
We attribute the increase to the delivery of 9,000 condominium units in Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, Ortigas Center, Rockwell Center and Alabang. This is slightly lower than our initial projection of 10,100 units due to delay in the completion of three projects. The Bay Area accounted for about two-thirds of the new supply in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, we expect the annual average completion of 6,700 condominium units. This is about half of the 13,000 units completed annually from 2017 to 2019, ...


Rents and prices to pick up due to improvement in vacancy
In Q4 2022, Colliers recorded a marginal increase in residential vacancy to 17.6% from 17.4% in Q3 2022. Vacancy in the Bay Area further rose to 26.0% during the period from 25.5% a quarter ago. This is partly due to the completion of 3,100
units in the submarket in Q4 2022. For 2022, the Bay Area accounted for 65% of the 9,000 units delivered across Metro Manila. Meanwhile, vacancy in Makati CBD, Ortigas Center, and Rockwell Center improved in Q4 2022.
Colliers expects vacancy in the secondary market to drop to 17.0% in 2023 due to recovery in office leasing, muted completion of new units, and an improvement in business and investor sentiment which should support take-up.
In 2022, rents and prices increased by 1.2% and 3.9% respectively. From 2020 to 2021, rents corrected by a combined 12%* while prices dropped by 19%. In 2023, Colliers forecasts rents and prices to increase by 2.3% and 2.0%, respectively...

> https://www.colliers.com/en-ph/research/colliers-quarterly-property-market-report-residential-q4-2022-philippines

* ( The RENTAL DROPS I experienced in 2020-22, were more like 25-30%, so I doubt the accuracy of the Colliers figures.)

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From: Focus on Luxury, and JV's

Partnerships with foreign developers
Colliers Philippines believes that property firms should seize the opportunity provided by the growing popularity of joint venture (JV) residential projects across Metro Manila by firming up partnerships with foreign developers and launching upscale and luxury projects.
Property firms should emphasize the JV projects’ upscale amenities, integrated development features, and strong potential for capital appreciation, which are important considerations for a discerning and affluent market. Currently, joint venture projects between foreign and Philippine firms are among the more expensive in the market. Despite being classified as luxury and ultra-luxury, these projects have an average take-up of between 75% and 87% as of end 2022.


Further test the market for more luxury and ultra-luxury projects
In 2022, Colliers recorded the launch of 6,000 luxury and ultra-luxury units, representing 25% of total launches during the period. Among the luxury and ultra-luxury projects launched in Q4 2022 include Rockwell Land’s Edades West and Arthaland’s Eluria. These pre-selling projects’ total contract prices (TCPs) per unit range from PHP102 million to PHP149 million (USD1.9 million to USD2.7 million) with prices on a per sq meter basis ranging from PHP472,000 to PHP519,000. (USD8,600 to USD9,400).

Prices:   ROOM to Expand?  Well,  not unless incomes rise, and jobs pick-up:  >. ..../Downloads/Colliers_Manila_Radar_BreakingTheBarrier_v1-1.pdf

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