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Bitcoin jumps of 2017 & 2020 : $1,000, $5k, $10k & rising?

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China & the Bitcoin jump of 2017 : $1,000, $2,000 & rising

UPDATE: Aug. 2021

Is the Bitcoin Bounce over?

65k - 30k= 35k drop. 50% retrace= 17.5+ 30= 47.5k; 62% retrace= 21.7+ 30= 51.7k

Bitcoin... update: 4yr: Last $45k

95DmggE.gif

4yr: Last $47k

Bv2t6Xq.gif

ALL data

vBtD4n7.png

Yuan Dumps, Bitcoin Jumps As China Researchers Suggest "One-Off Devaluation" & Capital Controls

20170102_cnh.jpg

As we have detailed numerous times recently, the recent move in Bitcoin has been strongly suggesting increasing fears of capital controls and/or expectations of a looming (and quite notable) devaluation of the Yuan against the US Dollar. Tonight saw China's largest nationalist tabloid suggesting that China should consider one-off yuan devaluation to keep the currency stable at equilibrium level.

Offshore Yuan is tumbling - to new record lows.

=== ===

Bitcoin : The uptrend continues as money flees China:
=======
Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:12-mos : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours : PB :

: all-data :

WExWHgr.png

 


chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos : 12-mos : 24-mos : 32-MOS

==================

(this chart and comment is from 2 weeks ago):

GLD / Gold : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 2-yrs : 12-mos / 10d // Last: $107.93 : Gold: $1133.6

GLD-5yrs_zpsmrijtxxe.gif :

The Gold market now is deeply oversold, and the end of the year is often a Turning point.

But there's no guarantee this will be the bottom (again, like last year was)

===

> Main BTC thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=10568

Crypto Market Caps : https://coinmarketcap.com

Crypto Trading ------ : https://www.bitmex.com/

Bitcoin technicals---- : http://www.newsbtc.com/author/sarahjenn/

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BTC Last : $1,024 / 6.945 = Rmb 147.4 per BTC

 

CNY : 12-months : 10-d / Last: 6.945

CNY_zpsvjmsylg5.gif

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Chinese economic News... moving into 2017

 

China's economy could grow 6.5 percent in 2017; devaluation could ...

Reuters-1 hour ago
China's last one-off currency devaluation, a 2 percent move in August ... China's fundamentals including its economy, monetary policy, trade ...
China economy improving, rate hike a possibility – central bank ...
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide-13 hours ago
China tweaks yuan basket to play down US dollar
South China Morning Post-31 Dec 2016
=== ===
The yuan fell nearly 7 percent last year - its biggest annual loss against the dollar since 1994 - under pressure from sluggish economic growth and a strong dollar.

China's last one-off currency devaluation, a 2 percent move in August 2015, shocked global markets and was widely viewed by traders and economists as a failure.
With the yuan still weakening and capital outflows steadily eroding China's forex reserves, pundits have discussed the possibility of a second devaluation, but there has been little indication that policymakers were considering such a move.
Capital outflows have been a growing concern for the government in the past year as it attempted to put the economy back on track and keep the currency stable without exhausting its reserves, which tumbled to $3.052 trillion in November, the lowest in almost six years.
. . .
Interest rates in China are already on an upward trend as the economy improves, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) adviser Sheng Songcheng told Reuters in an interview.

“The economy is improving…so interest rates and prices will move in a positive direction,” Sheng said on Thursday. “Under the right circumstances, if conditions allow, we can consider a rate hike.”
After starting 2016 under a cloud, China’s economy has performed better than expected this year, fuelling speculation that the central bank may be considering a policy shift after years of ultra-loose monetary conditions that have spurred an explosive rise in debt.
Sheng said an increase in deposit and lending rates would serve to improve expectations for the economy overall, and also help stabilise the yuan exchange rate.
. . .
China’s economy is on a steady growth path as 2016 ends, supported by a housing boom and billions in government investment, but the mood of policymakers is more cautious than celebratory as they face “complexity” in the new year.

Controlling risks has been a constant refrain in recent months as the focus of policymakers switches to taming asset bubbles and checking unbalanced growth stemming from efforts to fuel the economy with credit.

The central bank - while reaffirming a long-standing commitment to prudent policy - said on Friday it would pay more attention to maintaining a “neutral” stance and ensure that it is “neither too tight nor too loose”.
“At present, China’s economic and financial operations are generally stable, but the complexity of the situation cannot be underestimated,” the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said.
Bank lending is on pace to top 2015’s record 11.71 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion), helping to stoke a housing boom that saw prices rise a historic 12.6 percent year-on-year in November, while fixed asset investment by state firms is growing more than 20 percent.
But growth has become more imbalanced this year as the effectiveness of new credit declines and companies and individuals face mounting debts, economists say.
. . .
China is reducing the share of US dollars in its currency basket for measuring the yuan value, a technical adjustment to redirect market attention from the yuan-dollar parity.
Although other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, also release similar nominal effective exchange rate indices for their currencies, calculated against a basket of trade partner currencies, the People’s Bank of China has been particularly active in promoting the yuan’s rate against a group of currencies, rather than the dollar alone.
As part of Beijing’s efforts to stabilise expectations of the yuan’s value, China’s monetary authority has repeatedly said it’s not fair to look at the yuan solely against the US dollar, which has been strengthening, particularly after Donald Trump won the presidential election.

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TRADE remains very important to China, but its importance is falling

 

001aa0ba3c6a19d5415c01.jpg

 

Chinese economy called invulnerable to trade war t_15.gif0 Comment(s)t_16.gifPrintt_17.gifE-mail China Daily, January 3, 2017

Adjust font size: t_18.gift_19.gif

001aa0ba3c6a19d541a802.jpg

A worker looks closely as containers are unloaded in Qingdao Port, Shandong province. [Photo/China Daily]



Anyone fancying a trade war with China might have missed their best opportunity, according to trade officials and economic advisers, who said the Chinese economy has already passed the stage of being vulnerable to such actions.

They said trade is no longer a main factor contributing to the nation's GDP growth, and the country has made preparations in the past few years for taking on the challenge of a possible rise in protectionism.

They also said that trade was not among the key tasks assigned by the just-completed Central Economic Work Conference, a yearly top-level decision-making meeting to map out the development strategy for the coming year.

In the conference's communique, only the quality of import and export goods was briefly mentioned.

More than ever, China is relying on its own reform and stability for building its economic strength, they said.

==

> MORE: http://china.org.cn/business/2017-01/03/content_40027727.htm

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Big Gains, and a way to Short

 

CNY ... 10-d / 6-mos : 2-yrs -- / Last: 6.926

CNY-10d_zpsj7tmvwpi.gif

 

Offshore renminbi makes biggest one-day gain in nearly a year

Financial Times-13 hours ago
In trading outside the mainland, the renminbi pushed the dollar back more than 1 per cent to Rmb6.8824 in London hours on Wednesday, ...

Hong Kong to trade renminbi currency options
GlobalCapital-7 hours ago

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The Bitcoin price ($1110) is now approaching the Gold price ($1171)

 

GAP: $1171 - $1110 = $61

 

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

 

gold.gif

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Bitcoin vs Gold
bitcoin-price-full.png

Bitcoin is more valuable than gold?

Introduction

The price of Bitcoin seems to have exceeded the price of gold for the first time; however, this comparison is completely arbitrary. Gold is measured in weight, while Bitcoin, much like currency, is an abstract form of money and can only be measured in units of itself. One Bitcoin is worth a lot more than 1 gram of gold, but a lot less than 1 tonne. Despite Bitcoin’s stellar performance in 2016, the size and depth of the cryptocurrency market is dwarfed by the $7 trillion gold market. Gold remains the only true global money with a size and volatility comparable to that of fiat currency.

View the entire Research Piece as a PDF here...

Bitcoin – or cryptocurrency itself – is the most exciting monetary experiment in modern times.

Unlike fiat currency, it can’t just be printed, and it mimics the scarcity properties of gold in that it needs an enormous amount of energy to create one coin. The energy-proof of value is what links gold to the primary industries and allows it to maintain its purchasing power over incredibly long periods of time. Without it, any form of money will inevitably be corrupted over time and decay. Bitcoin has some of the same energy-proof of value that makes gold far superior to fiat currency, which can be created with the stroke of a key. Bitcoin, also like gold, is a global currency that may be universally accepted in the future. Even USD can’t make that claim.

Bitcoin has some qualities that are not shared by any other form of money, most notably the potential total anonymity in electronic transactions; however, some might feel that aspect that may prevent the universal adoption of Bitcoin as money. Today, the global stock of Bitcoin is just $20 billion (despite its price rally) and its transaction volume is tiny, even when compared to more exotic currencies. That said, as the adoption of Bitcoin increases, governments may no longer be happy with the fact that it can be used for anonymous transactions and may prevent legitimate businesses from accepting it as money if they see this as a threat. Only time will tell. In the meantime, Bitcoin remains the only alternative to gold (and other precious metals) for savers to escape the built-in decay function of fiat currency otherwise known as inflation.

Bitcoin is currently in the limelight because it has apparently exceeded the price of gold for the first time on some exchanges (although at the time of writing, Bloomberg still shows an average price of Bitcoin hasn’t crossed the gold price yet, but it seems just a question of time). We have no doubt that this will lead to a barrage of headlines in online media, and some mainstream outlets will jump on the bandwagon as well. After all, they already widely reported on a claim made by the Winklevoss brothers in mid-2016 that Bitcoin’s volatility had apparently fallen below the volatility of gold, and thus Bitcoin had become “better at being gold than gold”. We rebutted this claim and surely Bitcoin’s volatility shot back up to 100% shortly thereafter.

Bitcoin has rallied almost USD500 last year and USD100 in the first two days of 2017 alone. At the time of writing, 1 Bitcoin was trading at USD1,135, while 1 oz of gold was trading at USD1,164. To some, it may seem like Bitcoin is about to be more valuable than gold, and though this is of course conceptually incorrect, it probably won’t stop the media pundits from publishing the headline anyway.

Gold and elements can be measured by weight (oz, g, kg, t). Mass and weight are the measuring units endowed by nature. Fiat currencies, or any other abstract commodity or money (including Bitcoin), cannot be measured that way. An abstraction can only be measured in units of itself. Gold and silver are therefore the only form of money today that are traded in weight. Fiat currency on the other hand cannot be measured by anything other than other currency, at least since Nixon ended the convertibility to gold in 1971. In that respect, Bitcoin falls into the same category.

. . .

Thus, when comparing units of gold to units of Bitcoin, one must first define what unit it is measured against. Is it grams (currently USD37/g), kilograms (USD37,000/kg) or tonnes (USD 37 million/tonne)? Or are we measuring it in the rather obscure measure of troy ounce (USD1,157/ozt), which, apart from exchange traded metals, is not used for anything else?

Hence comparing the price of 1 Bitcoin vs 1 troy ounce of gold is a little bit like comparing the shares of Seaboard Corp. (USD4,179 per share) to those of Apple Inc. (USD116 per share) and concluding that Seaboard Corp. is worth 35 times as much. Clearly, measured accurately by market cap, Apple is the largest and most valuable company in the world and worth 126 times as much as Seaboard Corp.

The same basic principle applies to money. Combined above-ground gold stocks are currently worth around $7 trillion. As we noted last year, that is more than all banknotes in circulation of all currencies combined (see Eliminating cash will also eliminate the checks and balances on banking policy and practice, February 22, 2016), and it certainly dwarfs the market cap of Bitcoin at around $18 billion. In fact, all crypto-currencies combined (we count 710) have a market cap of just $21 billion (see Figure 2).

bitcoin-market-size-full.png

There is another obvious obstacle when comparing Bitcoin with gold: Volatility. High volatility is often pointed out against gold being used as medium of exchange and store of value. We will look the volatility of gold in more detail in an upcoming report, but in a nutshell, we find the volatility of gold (measured as standard deviation) is roughly comparable with currency, and gold has proven to be a much better store of value than any currency over the long run - even when interest is taken into account. Bitcoin’s volatility significantly exceeds that of both gold and currency. At times, Bitcoin’s volatility declines for a short period and can even approach the volatilities of gold and currency, but tends to shoot up violently shortly thereafter.

Bitcoin_major_currencies.pngHowever, standard deviation should not be confused with a measure of risk. The standard deviation quantifies the dispersion of returns; what it does not do is distinguish whether that dispersion comes from upward or downward moves.

For example, an asset that has a 1% return every second day and 0% return every other day would exhibit an annualized standard deviation of 8%. An asset that has a -1% performance every second day and 0% every other day exhibits the same standard deviation. In an asset management context, the two assets may have the same risk. In fact, the negatively performing asset might reduce risk in a portfolio if it is negatively correlated to the other assets. But for a saver, the first asset is clearly less risky.

Hence, instead of measuring volatility as standard deviation, we can measure just the downside deviation. This provides a better idea of the risks of money. How does this look for Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s downside deviation is still several orders of magnitude higher than that of gold or currency. Over the past two years, Bitcoin experienced a downside deviation of >45%. Since the beginning of data in 2010, it was >100%.

bitcoin_deviation.png

The volatility – or to be precise, the downside risk – makes it difficult for Bitcoin to be more widely adopted as money. What speaks for Bitcoin is that it has shown stellar performance over its short lifespan, but this stellar performance comes with considerable downside risk. A merchant accepting Bitcoin as payment is exposed to this downside risk unless he instantly exchanges Bitcoins back to currency following the transaction. Even though a cycle takes about 6 minutes in theory, exchanging Bitcoin to currency actually takes about one hour to confirm the transaction and another hour to confirm the price, during which at the very least the merchant is exposed to the downside volatility. Holding Bitcoins permanently might hold huge upside, but that also comes with intolerable downside risk for a merchant. After all, merchants should spend their time and energy with what they are best at (selling goods) rather than trading currencies and Bitcoin.

Another claim we don’t agree with is that Bitcoin is as free of counter-party risk as gold. What we have seen with Ethereum, another nascent cryptocurrency, is that these virtual currencies ultimately have a master key. With Ethereum, that key is controlled by a council that decides its future inflation rate; with Bitcoin, that key is controlled by Gavin Andresen, an engineer based in Massachusetts. There’s no guarantee that they won’t change the source code for the Bitcoin blockchain in the future, and when you “own” a Bitcoin you simply refer to the blockchain - a distributed ledger that tells you what and how much you own. In this regard, we don’t agree that Bitcoin does not have custodial or counter-party risk; the blockchain itself is the fat tail.

This means that for now, gold remains the only global currency in which individuals and corporations can transact with no time delay, with price volatility comparable to that of major currencies yet without counter-party risk, and one that has been proven as a store of value for thousands of years.

==

> https://wealth.goldmoney.com/are-bitcoins-now-more-valuable-than-gold

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THE BIGGEST, QUICKEST CRASH ? Over 10% an Hour

 

After the touch (or near-touch) of the Gold price near $1,150, Look what happened:

 

Intraday Bitcoin ... update :

BTC-Hourly_zpswystwtr9.png

 

They are reporting: High: $1015, Low: $885.4 - that's a 12.8% Drop !

 

But I saw a tradable price in Hong Kong of $1,140, so to $885.4, that's a 15% drop.

 

This happened over 3-4 hours, and may be one of the biggest crashes of the year.

(Having said that, it is a new year, so who knows what we will see - More "flashies" perhaps?)

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What a disappointment!

 

BTC ... 1-year

BTC-1yr_zpsv6yg8ip0.png

 

 

BTC prices / Gatecoin: https://gatecoin.com/marketData

Last price: $1,140.4- Bid/Ask: 1,137.6/1,147.1- 24h Volume: 1
Spread : 83.5 b.p. / $ 9.5
Mid-Pt. : $ 1,142.4
to HKD : x 7.754 = $8,858 / BTC, spread: HKD 74
=====

 

I identified the BTC Top perfectly, and was signed onto my Wallet website trying to sell, just as the 1120-1140+ high was being made

 

The COINBASE site did NOT accept my order, because I was not in the USA

 

Where did BTC close the week?

$820.4 = 70% of the Gold price

What a drop ! Almost 30% off its high in just two days!

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China's Collapse Is Coming, More So Now Than Ever - Gordon Chang

Kitco Video News - Jan 6

 

> see VIDEO : http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Gold--Silver-Outlook-2017/1455/2016-12-23/Chinas-Collapse-Is-Coming-More-So-Now-Than-Ever---Gordon-Chang

 

The world’s second largest economy is on the brink of collapse, at least that’s what best-selling author and Forbes contributor Gordon Chang believes.

 

Author of The Coming Collapse of China, Chang gave his outlook on the country’s economy, which remains grim -- more so now than ever. ‘Chinese leaders have the ability to defer crises,’ he told Kitco News. ‘As they defer them, the underlying imbalances in the Chinese economy are getting bigger, which means when adjustments comes -- which are inevitable -- they will be severe.’

 

To Chang, China is in more trouble now given America’s overall influence on the country’s economy. ‘[Donald] Trump and Janet Yellen have much more effect on what’s going to go on in China than Chinese technocrats, who are at the mercy of the United States right now.’ And when this collapse happens, gold will move higher, he said. ‘People are going to the dollar as a safe haven and they’re going to go into gold because that has traditionally been where investors go when they’re really nervous

 

China "might not be able to get through another year" without a crash
"With Capital controls, no one is going to put money into China"
"A Trump related boom in the USA, would attract money away from China"
After 15 years, why is China still standing?
"In 2001, I said it would take 10 years... so I am (just) 5 years out of time."
"China's leaders have the ability to defer crises... but Chinese people are now moving their own money"
You expect Gold to do well?
"Yes. There will be a rush to the USD and Gold as safe havens."
"People in China want OUT of the RMB."

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End of the (endless) Migrant worker miracle... less big shifts from country to city

 

"This is called the Lewis turning point... means Higher wages, and an economic slowdown"

 

The End of China's Economic Miracle? (Complete)

 

Published on Dec 15, 2016

NEW YORK, April 20, 2016 — Jamil Anderlini, Lucy Hornby, and Richard McGregor of the Financial Times, Orville Schell, and George Soros discussed how rising wages, labor shortages, and lesser returns on investment have contributed to China's economic slowdown. The panel discussion and Q&A session were accompanied by the presentation of a short documentary produced by the Financial Times: The End of China's Economic Miracle. (1 hr., 9 min.)

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CHINA's Domination of Bitcoins is truly awesome

 

Some amazing statistics from today's SCMP

 

+ In recent weeks 98% of the Bitcoin volume has been in renminbi

+ two-thirds of the Bitcoin mining is now being done in China

 

: 32-MOS

btc-2017_zpst2rjpewr.png

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China's Central Bank to Conduct Ongoing Bitcoin Exchange Visits
Pete Rizzo (@pete_rizzo_) | January 11, 2017
construction-inspection-300x185.jpg

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is moving to more closely monitor (or otherwise engage) with domestic bitcoin exchange businesses.

Just days after it was revealed the PBoC's Beijing and Shanghai offices had visited the country's three largest exchanges by volume, the central bank said today that it is pledging to better engage with BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin through continued on-site inspections or meetings.

Discussed at new meetings, according to releases by its Beijing and Shanghai offices, were topics including compliance (anti-money laundering and foreign exchange management).

"The checks focused on whether the firm was operating out of its business scope, whether it was launching unauthorized financing, payment, forex business or other related businesses, whether it was involved in market manipulation, anti-money laundering or (carried) fund security risks," a translation provided by Reuters states.

BTCC CEO Bobby Lee confirmed the meeting to CoinDesk, stating that the PBoC requested data on its operations as well as recommendations on how the government might move to regulate bitcoin exchange operations.

 

However, Lee stressed that the on-site visitations are "very common" for businesses in China and continued to express an optimism about the engagement, which he framed as a long-delayed request from local businesses.

"We're now working closely with the government about what makes a healthy market," he said, adding:

Assessing the impact

"We've been trying to get their attention years."

Yet, the exchange also moved formally to stem the reaction to the news.

BTCC sought to discourage the speculation that has sometimes followed the PBoC's engagement with bitcoin businesses.

"We urge our customers to take a rational and cautious view to news articles which speculate on the visit and discussions," the exchange said.

Elsewhere, it seems the meetings continue to be limited to bitcoin exchange businesses, as companies using the protocol (Circle China) and over-the-counter trading facilities (Richfund) indicated they have not engaged with the PBoC.

==

> http://www.coindesk.com/chinas-central-bank-conduct-ongoing-bitcoin-exchange-visits/

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BTC dropped another notch from over $900 to about $800, after have traded as low as $750.

 

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

 

When it's over, it's over!

The (near) touching of the Gold price, plus all uncertainty out of China, has been enough to clobber the price

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Bitcoin to get China's help to move towards maturity?

 

Clif High thinks China is ready to adopt Bitcoin as a "discarded nephew", and mentor it towards maturity
We will see an early rise, geting it above the "1088 Gate" towards $1488.
The 8's (incl.$888) are gates - they are like strange attractors - key support and resistance levels

.
China Gov Promoting bitcoin! Coming Silver Shortage - Clif High's Web Bot Revelations


-

He also thinks BTC could be used to settle accounts between corporations.

He sees China cleaning up the business practices of the Chinese exchanges.

(speculation and shorting on exchanges may be curtailed.)

 

He sees a spillover of BTC enthusiasm into Gold and Silver, but mainly silver

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A Bitcoins transaction in the Philippines - using mobile Phones

 

Cashing out Bitcoins to Fiat in Philippines, Manila 2016

 

BTC 0.5 sent by scanning a code on the mobile phone / service : Coins.PH

BTC can be used to pay people in the PH, who do not yet have bank accounts

 

Profile : Joey Zervoulakos

> http://zervoulakos.com/bitcoin-philippines/

 

The Philippines is the 3rds largest remittance market in the world receiving around $29 billion USD in 2014. Following that is China with $65 billion USD being remitted and India receiving over $70 billion USD in international remittances.

According to this article on CNN Philippines most of the adults sending or receiving international remittances reported that they are most likely to use a money transfer operator rather than banks. In 2014 this study shows that 69% of Filipinos do not have a bank account. In the Philippines, more people have Facebook accounts than a bank accounts. The money Transfer service options are limited so customers funnel into the few accessible locations which are most likely control by a Money Transfer Operator like Western Union.

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Hi guys - have you heard of this?:

15:00 - 16:00 • KEYNOTE
BTCCS CEO BOBBY LEE TELLS THE REAL STORY OF BITCOIN IN CHINA
Bobby Lee
Free FX conference, starts tomorrow (Wed):
http://www.ifxexpo.com/index­

 

HK Exhibition CC - Wanchai

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Bitcoins Price may take another run at the Gold price - Gold is Now $1230

 

BTC - 32-months

btc-2017_zpstgjgz00l.png

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BITCOIN is still the Biggest MktCap, by far

 

Crypto Market Caps : https://coinmarketcap.com

 

Only Seven Coins are over $100 Million Market Cap

 

Name-------- ----Market Cap--- : ---Price-- Available Supply Volume (24h) % Change (24h) Price Graph (7d)

1 bitcoin.pngBitcoin $17,650,054,736 : $1091.18 16,175,200 BTC $132,398,000 3.27% 1.png

2 ethereum.pngEthereum $1,125,457,919 : $12.63 89,082,383 ETH $15,364,900 -1.01% 1027.png

3 ripple.pngRipple $214,511,698 : $0.005791 37,044,621,729 XRP * $811,436 -0.59% 52.png

4 litecoin.pngLitecoin $188,919,819 : $3.79 49,881,532 LTC $3,254,820 0.65% 2.png

5 monero.pngMonero $170,962,239 : $12.26 13,948,472 XMR $5,549,320 1.90% 328.png

6 dash.pngDash $148,695,370 : $20.90 7,114,100 DASH $4,344,430 -5.20% 131.png

7 ethereum-classic.pngEthereum Classic $109,438,923 $1.23 89,042,059 ETC $743,523 0.64% 1321.png

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Crypto Exchange, based in Hong kong

 

BitMEX | Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange: Futures, Up To 100x Leverage

Trade Bitcoin and crypto products with up to 100x leverage. BitMEX uses industry-leading technology developed by founders with extensive algorithmic trading ...
About Us - BitMEX

The founding team at BitMEX consists of best-of-class professionals in finance, ...

from the Wharton School of Business, Arthur lived in Hong Kong as an equity ...

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PUBLIC : Bitcoin-related investments you can trade in public markets

 

GBTC / Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC) ... All-data : 12-mos : 6-mos :

GBTC-all_zpsbv3lu1q4.gif

 

Bitcoin is approaching news highs as investors wait to hear about the pending approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (Pending:COIN).

The significance of reaching a new high in Bitcoin should not be taken lightly because on average the new high is 3- 10 times higher than the previous one. The way the approval process works is that if the SEC has no further comment by the end of the comment period the ETF can move forward and is essentially approved. This deal has been in the works for over 4 years so there is a lot of anticipation. So every day that we inch closer and closer to March 11th the higher the likelihood of the even happening. The chart below depicts the Bitcoin price in orange versus the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC). Notice the correlation as well as the current divergence in GBTC. Also take note of the uptick since the formal confirmation of Mike Mulvaney. A new high could really propel this stock and others in the sector.

 

19785151-1487849823258304.png

 

GBTC is a private, open-ended trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. It enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin without the challenge of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoins. The BIT's sponsor is Grayscale Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. This is the first publicly quoted security to base its value off the price of bitcoin.

This anticipation of the ETF is creating a renaissance in Bitcoin stocks. If the COIN ETF receives approval speculation is that the price of Bitcoin will move significantly higher and that the ETF will need to create a basket of investments and therefore purchase shares in Bitcoin stocks. There are a couple of predictions on the passage of the ETF. Needham has made a call that there is a "25% chance of being approved" while Emerita Capital is coming in at 35%. There are very few pure plays for Bitcoin stocks.

Here are some of the key players as well as market capitalization:

 

Stock : Company---------- : Shs O/S- : Price : Market Cap.

GBTC : Bitcoin Inv. Trust-- : 1.837 mil : 113.50 : $208.5 million

GAHC : Global Arena Hldg : 685.6 mil : $.0140 : $ 9,598,400

BTSC : Bitcoin Services--- : 511.9 mil : $.0120 : $ 6,141,600

CNXS : Connexus Corp.--- : 43.0 mil : $.0038 : $ 163,400

(Source: OTC Markets)

 

Global Arena Holding Inc. is a holding and technology company involved in blockchain technology. The blockchain is basically a digital ledger that anyone can add to but that nothing can be removed from creating a verifiable trail of transaction. All these transaction are broadcast to a network of nodes and each node updates its own copy of the ledger with the new transactions.

Bitcoin Services, Inc. is essentially a Bitcoin mining operation. They maintain their own facilities and servers. Their capacity has been increasing as they try to find more efficient ways to mine bit coins and lower their cost of production.

Connexus Corp. has branded bitcoin ATM's back by Mike Tyson's celebrity. They operate around regions of Las Vegas and in parts of California. Increases in Bitcoin price will lead to increased demand and enhanced adoption and distribution of the Bitcoin ATM's.

==

> More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048953-bitcoin-bitcoin-stocks-move-director-omb-confirmation

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Possible new source of of demand:

 

COIN ETF Mechanics

873746b2-e6fa-46df-b63f-fa910b74a3b0.jpg

My 5 year trading career was spent as the head Asia Ex Japan Australia ETF market maker for Deutsche Bank and then Citibank. If the Winklevoss COIN ETF is approved, the price of Bitcoin will decisively punch through the last all time high. However the ways in which the ETF and the trading surrounding it will affect the Bitcoin exchange and trading ecosystem is just as important as the price spike.

. . .

If COIN is as popular as we all expect, then DMMs will need to day trade a significant amount of Bitcoin. Liquidity on Gemini, Coinbase, and itBit will be challenging.

Due to regulations, US exchanges offer the least amount of Bitcoin trading products. Margin and futures trading is not offered. Even worse, the majority of supply is mined abroad. The over the top KYC requirements to open accounts in America scare many miners away from selling their coins on these exchanges. The stringent requirements also mean that exchanges can only service Americans.

Except for the Gemini auction, DMMs will not be able to cheaply trade Bitcoin on US-regulated exchanges. They will rely upon OTC brokers. The largest US-domiciled broker is Cumberland Mining, a subsidiary of DRW Trading. Cumberland can access the largest pools of liquidity through their long standing relationships with large traders and exchanges globally.

Market Structure Implications

Gemini sans Bitcoin ETF is irrelevant. If the ETF is approved, volumes on the exchange will ratchet higher. Coinbase and itBit will bite the dust. Traders arbitraging the ETF vs. Bitcoin will primarily trade on Gemini. It will be the most direct and easy hedge.

The daily Gemini auction will become the most important pricing signal. As the assets under management (AUM) of the ETF grows, the daily flows of creations and redemptions will underpin strong auction volumes.

==

> https://blog.bitmex.com/

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NEW All Time High !

 

How far will BTC go?

=

I believe it will takeout $1200 soon, and may touch the Gold price (now near $1240)

But I will do some selling into this surge.

I will explain why later

 

===

 

/ 1 /

Crytpocurrency bitcoin reaches all-time high
Highly Cited-USA TODAY-3 hours ago

/ 2 /

Bitcoin And Bitcoin Stocks Move On Director Of OMB Confirmation

Seeking Alpha-6 hours ago
The confirmation of Mike Mulvaney on February 16, 2017 to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is a big shot in the arm for Bitcoin.
Summary

+ Mike Mulvaney confirmation sparks move in Bitcoin price.

+ Approval of ETF catalyst coming on March 11, 2017.

+ Scarcity of supply driving Bitcoin stocks prices and potential ETF investment.

==

The confirmation of Mike Mulvaney on February 16, 2017 to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is a big shot in the arm for Bitcoin. Since his confirmation there has been more than an uptick in price of Bitcoin and Bitcoin related stocks. Mike Mulvaney a conservative republican congressman from South Carolina is a dedicated Bitcoin supporter and his confirmation as the direct of the budget office can only be viewed as a positive. Mulvaney first went on record in April 2014 to say "Just wrapped up a Small Business Committee hearing on Bitcoin. I know it isn't a mainstream issue yet - and may not become one - but it is extraordinarily interesting and something that could eventually influence the dollar and our monetary policy. In fact, one of the witnesses drew favorable comparisons between Bitcoin and Milton Friedman.

 

/ 3 /

Bitcoin is surging – but that might not mean what you think

CNBC-7 hours ago
Bitcoin – the volatile digital currency that is used for a bevy of transaction, investment and value-storing purposes – is hovering around all-time ...

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If You Traded Bitcoin, You Should Report Capital Gains To The IRS

 

960x0.jpg?fit=scale

 

The IRS considers cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, to be “intangible property.” Investors and traders holding cryptocurrency as a capital asset should use capital gain or loss tax treatment on sales and exchanges, with the realization method. For example, if you buy Bitcoins with U.S. dollars and later sell them for U.S. dollars, a capital gain or loss needs to be reported on that transaction.

Americans also trade Bitcoins or leveraged Bitcoin contracts on Bitcoin exchanges, and they should report realized capital gains and losses on each trade, even if the trader doesn’t convert underlying Bitcoin back into U.S. dollars.

It’s similar to having a foreign-based brokerage account, denominated in a foreign currency (i.e., Euros), where a trader buys and sells European equities held in Euros, and does not convert Euros back to U.S. dollars during the year. Two choices for tax reporting: Convert Bitcoin to U.S. dollars on each purchase and sale transaction using the Bitcoin market price that day denominated in U.S. dollars, or use Bitcoin as a functional currency, using an average Bitcoin vs. U.S. dollar conversion rate for the tax year.

The CFTC does not permit American retail customers to trade leveraged Bitcoin contracts on Bitcoin exchanges.

(Read my related blog post: If You Want To Trade Bitcoins, First Learn CFTC Rules.)

==

> http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048953-bitcoin-bitcoin-stocks-move-director-omb-confirmation

 

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PUBLIC : Bitcoin-relation investments you can trade in public markets

 

GBTC / Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC) ... All-data : 12-mos : 6-mos :

xx

 

Bitcoin is approaching news highs as investors wait to hear about the pending approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (Pending:COIN).

The significance of reaching a new high in Bitcoin should not be taken lightly because on average the new high is 3- 10 times higher than the previous one. The way the approval process works is that if the SEC has no further comment by the end of the comment period the ETF can move forward and is essentially approved. This deal has been in the works for over 4 years so there is a lot of anticipation. So every day that we inch closer and closer to March 11th the higher the likelihood of the even happening. The chart below depicts the Bitcoin price in orange versus the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC). Notice the correlation as well as the current divergence in GBTC. Also take note of the uptick since the formal confirmation of Mike Mulvaney. A new high could really propel this stock and others in the sector.

 

19785151-1487849823258304.png

 

GBTC is a private, open-ended trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. It enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin without the challenge of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoins. The BIT's sponsor is Grayscale Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. This is the first publicly quoted security to base its value off the price of bitcoin.

This anticipation of the ETF is creating a renaissance in Bitcoin stocks. If the COIN ETF receives approval speculation is that the price of Bitcoin will move significantly higher and that the ETF will need to create a basket of investments and therefore purchase shares in Bitcoin stocks. There are a couple of predictions on the passage of the ETF. Needham has made a call that there is a "25% chance of being approved" while Emerita Capital is coming in at 35%. There are very few pure plays for Bitcoin stocks.

Here are some of the key players as well as market capitalization:

 

Stock : Company---------- : Shs O/S- : Price : Market Cap.

GBTC : Bitcoin Inv. Trust-- : 1.837 mil : 113.50 : $208.5 million

GAHC : Global Arena Hldg : 685.6 mil : $.0140 : $ 9,598,400

BTSC : Bitcoin Services--- : 511.9 mil : $.0120 : $ 6,141,600

CNXS : Connexus Corp.--- : 43.0 mil : $.0038 : $ 163,400

Source: OTC Markets

 

Global Arena Holding Inc. is a holding and technology company involved in blockchain technology. The blockchain is basically a digital ledger that anyone can add to but that nothing can be removed from creating a verifiable trail of transaction. All these transaction are broadcast to a network of nodes and each node updates its own copy of the ledger with the new transactions.

Bitcoin Services, Inc. is essentially a Bitcoin mining operation. They maintain their own facilities and servers. Their capacity has been increasing as they try to find more efficient ways to mine bit coins and lower their cost of production.

Connexus Corp. has branded bitcoin ATM's back by Mike Tyson's celebrity. They operate around regions of Las Vegas and in parts of California. Increases in Bitcoin price will lead to increased demand and enhanced adoption and distribution of the Bitcoin ATM's.

==

> More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048953-bitcoin-bitcoin-stocks-move-director-omb-confirmation

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