Uranium & Cameco (etf: URA/ U.t, CCJ / CCO.t)

[drbubb]

Uranium still falling... though U-stocks & Oil have been rising

U.t : C$4.39 -0.05, 1.13% / Urptf: US$3.30 x 7.8 = $25.75, est. U price

U.t. vs CCO & OIH .. fr 2011: 5-yr: fr. 1/2020: 10-d: C$5.56 / C$24.51= r-22.7% / Urptf 4.53/OIH  229.64= 1.97% @6/25/21

: fr. 1/2020: 10-d: C$5.56 / C$24.51= r-22.7% // Urptf 4.53/OIH  229.64= 1.97% @6/25/21

==

[drbubb]

DBA vs- URPTF, SLV ... from 1/2010 :

[drbubb]

Fission Uranium, Uranium Assets Provide Clean Energy, CEO Clip Video

T.FCU | 1 day ago

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - April 12, 2019) - Dev Randhawa, CEO of Fission Uranium, speaks on their world class asset and management team.

If you cannot view the video above, please visit:
https://www.b-tv.com/fission-uranium-ceo-90-sec/

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2019/04/12/fission-uranium-uranium-assets-provide-clean-energy-ceo-clip-video#PvbLlJLK3iUSvUTJ.99

[drbubb]

U.t / Uranium may be putting in an important LOW near C$4.30 x0.75 = USD$3.25

U.t -etc... update / Last: $4.34 = / Urptf: US$3.25  x 7.8 = $25.35, est. U price

Urptf: US$3.25

[drbubb]

U.t was down further, and I bought some URPTF, finally

U.T -- :

URPTF:$3.22- 0.04,  3.25, 3.25, 3.10

:

[drbubb]

Uranium sector won’t catch a break

One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan. 

 

. . . Just over a year ago Cameco made the difficult decision to close its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines, in response to low uranium prices, leaving the company’s flagship Cigar Lake facility as its only operating mine left in northern Saskatchewan, home to the world’s highest grade uranium deposit. 

The mine closures by Cameco were preceded by 20% production cuts in Kazakhstan, the number one uranium-producing country. The former Soviet bloc country has said 2020-21 output will not rise above 2019 levels. In Canada, the second largest U producer, 2018 production was cut in half to 7,000 tonnes. 

An estimated 35% of uranium supply has been stripped from the market since Kazakhstan’s supply reductions in December 2017.

Uranium demand and China 

In response to the supply glut/ low price argument, uranium bulls like to present China as the country that will save the day and float everyone’s long-sunken uranium stock boats. It’s true that, of 453 operating nuclear reactors and 55 new reactors under construction, globally, China has the most reactors in the pipeline including 43 operating, 15 under construction and 179 planned or proposed. 

China then, will demand millions of tonnes of yellowcake, that it will have to import, right, pushing up the price? In fact, China has been working to reduce its dependence on imported uranium, and fossil-fueled power generation, by developing domestic uranium deposits and either partnering with or buying mine properties overseas. The Asian superpower has started building its own uranium supply chain, such as starting the Husab mine in Namibia. In November 2018, China National Uranium Corp bought the Rossing mine in Namibia from Rio Tinto. 

According to the World Nuclear Association, China has become self-sufficient in most aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle: China aims to produce one-third of its uranium domestically, obtain one-third through foreign equity in mines and joint ventures overseas, and to purchase one-third on the open market.

The China Nuclear International Uranium Corporation (SinoU) set up the Azelik mine in Niger and has agreed to buy a 25% stake in Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia for $190 million. In 2007 SinoU bought a share in the Zhalpak mine in Kazakhstan, through a joint venture with Kazatomprom.

Prospects in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Namibia, Algeria and Zimbabwe, Canada and South Africa are also seen as potential suppliers for SinoU, writes WNA.

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2019/09/13/uranium-sector-won-t-catch-break#IrVa9RbiW1QBhOQ5.99

[drbubb]

Uranium (& other Energy related shares) are still in a Downtrend - but may bottom soon

URPTF/ Uranium etf vs. UEC, CCJ, etc ... update: 10d/ $3.11 vs. Yr.L: $2.87 - 8.4% higher

UEC- CCJ, etc.  ... from-2018 : $0.886 / $8.90 = 10%-ish

Ratio: UEC to-CCJ: $0.886 / $8.90 = 9.96%

Coming Uranium Demand

[drbubb]

URANIUM is doing well : surprise to some,. because Oil; prices are so weak.  

But what happened?  Some mines were shut down on Covid fears. 

Supply is coming down, driving U prices higher

URANIUM stocks Update : 12mo: 6mo: 10d / xx

Uranium Bulls: The Queue Starts Here

Yahoo Finance-22 Apr 2020

I last wrote on the uranium market in February 2017, “Supernova Investing: Uranium”. Please start here for full background, before you go down ...

[drbubb]

Cameco gets a buy rating, trades up 6%

Uranium giant Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) was upgraded from a hold to a buy by TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes.

According to reporting by The Fly, Barnes said the past decade of weak uranium prices may be ending, and the market will allow producers to rebuild long-term contract portfolios at commercially acceptable prices.

Cameco traded up 6% to $15.30 a share as of 4 p.m. ET.

TD Securities put a price target of $18 on the stock.

In March Cameco announced that its Cigar Lake operation was being placed in safe care and maintenance mode for four weeks due to COVID-19. The company also withdrew guidance due to uncertainty around the pandemic.

[drbubb]

On 4/11/2019 at 6:50 PM, drbubb said:

DBA vs- URPTF, SLV ... from 1/2010 :

UPDATE: DBA vs- URPTF, SLV ... from 1/2010 : fr. 1/2016 : 5/4/2020: DBA: $13.68, SLV: $13.77, Urptf: $3.60

: fr. 1/2016 : Updated to 5/4/2020: DBA: $13.68, SLV: $13.77, Urptf: $3.60

==

[drbubb]

Pullback from Wave 1 Rally?

URANIUM stocks : 12mo: 6mo: 10d / CCO.t: $14.99, CCJ: $10.65, LAM.t: $0.28, FCU.t: $0.365, MGA.t: $0.105

U.t, CCO.t vs. OIH ... from 12.01.18 / Last: C$4.99, $14.99 / $108.67 @ 5.12.20

Urptf ($xx) / OIH ($109) = Ratio-3.27%

[drbubb]

Three Fav U Stocks - suggested by Sprott's Rick Rule

CCO.t vs The Three ... from 2017: 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ Last: $14.42: $0.51, $0.29, $1.93

YTD : 10d / Last: $14.42: $0.51, $0.29, $1.93

“Only 10 viable Juniors… (at least) one more round of dilution” coming

=== / Company —----  : Last : BkVal.: % BV : E.P.S.
CCJ / Cameco in USD: 10.61: $9.18: 116.% : (0.10): The main Major
CCO / Cameco Corp.  : 14.42: 12.40: 116.%:  0.19 :
DML / Denison Mines  : $0.51: $0.34: 150.%: (0.03) “Classiest of the Juniors”
FCU / Fission Uranium: $0.29: $0.66: 43.9%; (0.01)
NXE / NexGen Energy : $1.93: $0.46: 420.%: (0.09))
====
“Those three might be all you need to know”

FCU to CCO Ratio: Buy near 2%?

===

Stocks were suggested HERE - at xx minutes in (2/3rds?)

Learning From a Resource Hall of Famer Rick Rule on How to Invest!

==

[drbubb]

#4 Uranium Winners & Losers Easy to Pick - Dustin Garrow

Cigar Lake still shut down

[drbubb]

Uranium Royalty Company, URC,  has strategic stake in another Uranium owner...

Worth 17.6% / C$13M of URC's Mkt Cap: 71.8M x C$1.03 = C$ 74.0 Million. URC also has cash

At Jan.21, 2020: "The Company currently has approximately $40 million in cash and marketable securities."

SHARE STRUCTURE Shares Outstanding: 71.8 Million: Warrants 27.9 Million (=C$55M: $2.00 > 12/24), Options: 0

URC / Uranium Royalty Corp. ... update: wts: 10d / Last: C$1.03/$5.10= 20.2% (started 12.1.19: 1.24/ U.t: 5.00 = 20.00%)

URC vs YCA.L, Yellow Cake & U.t ... update / Last: $1.03, 2.29 x1.71= C$3.92, U.t: C$5.10

RATIO: URC to-U.t: C$1.03/$5.10= 20.2%

December 11, 2019) – Uranium Royalty Corp. (TSX-V: URC) (“URC” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that its common shares will commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange (“TSX-V”) today at market open under the symbols “URC”. The warrants issued by the Company under its initial public offering (the "IPO") will commence trading on the TSX-V under the symbol “URC.WT” at market open on December 12, 2019.

With the previously announced completion of the Company’s oversubscribed and upsized $30 million IPO and the completion of its TSX-V listing, URC becomes the first publicly-traded pure play uranium royalty company, positioning the Company to partake in future opportunities as a non-dilutive capital provider for uranium developers.

URC's competitive advantages include:

• First Mover Advantage: URC is the first company to apply the successful royalty and streaming business model exclusively to the uranium sector.
• Strong Balance Sheet: URC currently has approximately $40 million of cash and listed securities and no debt, which positions it to capitalize on accretive uranium royalty and streaming acquisition opportunities.
• Physical Uranium Ownership: Through its approximately 9% stake in London-listed YCA.L, Yellow Cake plc, URC holds interests in physical uranium, acquired at cyclical lows.
• Large and Diversified Royalty Portfolio: With the acquisition of three additional royalties, URC’s royalty portfolio includes interests on development, advanced, permitted and past-producing uranium projects in multiple jurisdictions with aggregate JORC and 43-101 resources of 271 million pounds U₃O₈ of measured and indicated resources and 148 million pounds U₃O₈ of inferred resources

Yellow Cake PLC Investment : ( symbol: YCA.L) ... update Chart : YCA vs.U.t / Last: GBP 2.29

7.6 Mn x GBP 2.29 x (1.272 x1.345= CAD1.709) = C$ 13.0 Million

URC owns 7.6 million shares of London-listed Yellow Cake PLC ("Yellow Cake", YCA.L ) as of the date hereof, or approximately 9% of the outstanding shares of outstanding Yellow Cake. Such shares were acquired as part of URC's US$19.25 million cornerstone strategic investment in Yellow Cake US$200 million initial public offering in July 2018.  As previously disclosed, the Company utilized part of the proceeds from its IPO to fully repay and retire a CDN$12.8 million (US$9.7 million) senior secured credit facility that had been used to finance its acquisition of Yellow Cake shares.  An element of the strategic partnership with Yellow Cake entitles URC the option to acquire up to US$31.25 million of physical uranium under Yellow Cake's long-term supply agreement with Kazatomprom, which is based in Kazakhstan and is the world’s largest uranium producer.

> more: https://www.uraniumroyalty.com/news/uranium-royalty-corp-successfully-completes-30000000-initial-public-offering-acquires-three-royalties-and-begins-trading-on-the-tsx-venture-exchange

> Website: https://www.uraniumroyalty.com/ : Presentation: https://www.uraniumroyalty.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf

[drbubb]

NOTES, on URA's Offering in

Initial Public Offering

On November 22, 2019, the Company entered into an agency agreement with a group of agents (collectively the "Agents") in respect of a proposed IPO of a minimum of 13,340,000 and a maximum of 20,000,000 Units of the Company at a price of $1.50 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to $30,000,000. The Company agreed to pay the Agents a cash agent fee equal to 6% of the gross proceeds received by the Company under the IPO, excluding proceeds from the purchasers designated by the Company, for which the Company agreed to pay a cash fee equal to 2% of such proceeds. The Company granted the Agents the over-allotment option (the "Over-Allotment Option"), exercisable for a period of 30 days following the closing date of the IPO to, purchase up to an additional 5% of the common shares and/or up to 5% of the common share purchase warrants issued pursuant to the IPO to cover over-allotments, if any. The Company also agreed to reimburse the Agents for certain fees and disbursements.

On the Closing Date, the Company issued 20,000,000 Units of the Company at a price of $1.50 per Unit for gross proceeds of $30,000,000.

Each Listed Warrant : $2.00, exp: Dec. 6, 2024

....will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one common share of the Company at an exercise price of $2.00 per share until December 6, 2024. On December 17, 2019 and December 23, 2019, the Agents exercised the Over-Allotment Option to purchase an aggregate of 861,000 Listed Warrants at a price of $0.25 per warrant for gross proceeds of $215,250.

Fair value of common shares issued on the Closing Date  : 24,755,245  : ($1.238 per sh.)
Fair value of Listed Warrants issued on the Closing Date.          :     5,244,755  : ($0.262 per wt.)
F.V. of  Warrants, from Over-Allotment Option.                              :        215,250. = Total gross proceeds from the IPO: $30,215,250

. . .  (shares were also issued for Royalties, etc.)

Common shares issued to settle other payable (Note 7).      500,000 :      463,611
Common shares issued to acquire royalties (Note 6).         4,803,296 :   5,945,338
Balance, as at January 31, 2020 :                                          71,835,238 : 66,845,949

HOLD PERIODS Staggered.  Big ones ended in June 11, 2020 : stock &wt update ;

Common Shares (continued)

The Company issued one common share at $0.10 per share upon incorporation on April 21, 2017.   Such common share was cancelled on October 2, 2018.

Common shares subject to contractual hold periods are set out as follows:
The common shares issued pursuant to the subscription agreements at$0.10 per share are subject to contractual hold periods, which will expire as follows: (9 million shares)
a) one-third (1/3) on December 11, 2021 : ( 3,000,000 )
b) one-third (1/3) on June 11, 2022, and. : ( 3,000,000 )
c) one-third (1/3) on December 11, 2022. : ( 3,000,000 )

The common shares issued pursuant to thes ubscription agreements at $0.25 per share are subject to contractual hold periods, which will expire as follows:
a) one-third (1/3) on June 11, 2020, . . .    : ( 1,166,666 )
b) one-third (1/3) on Dec. 11, 2020, and   :  ( 1,166,667 )
c) one-third (1/3) on June 11, 2021,  . . .    : ( 1,166,667 )

The common shares issued pursuant to the subscription agreements at$0.50 per share and at $1.00 per share are subject to contractual hold periods, which will expire on June 11, 2020.   . . .   : ( 16,324,938 ) // + above  ( 1,166,666 ) = 17.49 Million ! - 24.4% of OS )
Common shares subject to escrow provisions (Note 9.4) are set out as follows…

> https://www.uraniumroyalty.com/_resources/financials/URC-FS-YE-2020-Q3-FINAL.pdf

[drbubb]

VIDEOS on URC

Here's someone who did not like the URC ipo... His comments on URA come towards the end

He is not a fan, and sees it as "a Vancouver circle jerk", burning cash.

"The royalties are not yet producing cash, and some of the properties will never come into production."

"Some expensive people, who take big salaries"

Uranium Royalty Comes Public, Initial Impression Stay Away

/ 2 /

 

[drbubb]

U stock rally may be done... for a while

CCO.t vs The Three ... from 2017: 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ Last: $14.42: $0.51, $0.29, $1.93

URC.t vs. CCO.t

[drbubb]

Update / Last: CCO: C$13.84, / U$4.64= r-2.98, F:0.38, L:0.275, M:0.105

[drbubb]

URANIUM LOW in place, it seems...

CCO.t vs The Three ... from 2017: 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ Last: $17.72: $0.94, $0.445, $3.61 - 12/30

[drbubb]

COLD WATER for the Hot Uranium sector

"there was a message in the Dem platform that touched off a rally"

"Spot prices remain low, and supply is still high"

"You likely missed the move this time... wait for lower prices"

"Low cost ISL deposits are best... Athabasca basin deposits may take decades to get permitted"

Mercenary Musings Radio with Mickey Fulp: A near-term uranium u-turn seems unlikely

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-03-29/Mercenary-Musings-Radio-with-Mickey-Fulp-A-near-term-uranium-u-turn-seems-unlikely.html

[drbubb]

Is the rally finished?  CCO got to C$24.57 , and is down xx% to C$20.78

CCO.t vs The Three ... from 2017: 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d/ Last: $17.72: $0.94, $0.445, $3.61 - 12/30

https://i.imgur.com/UuGMQ4v.gif

[drbubb]

AGE / Alligator ... All:

[drbubb]

Pullback or Breakout?

U.t vs CCO.t ... from Jul.2017: 4yr: 2yr: 10d / C$5.56 to C$24.51 : r-22.7%

4yr:

===

[drbubb]

U.t. vs CCO & OIH .. fr 2011: 5-yr: fr. 1/2020: 10-d: C$5.56 / C$24.51= r-22.7% / Urptf 4.53/OIH  229.64= 1.97% @6/25/21

fr. 1/2020: May'20: 10-d: C$5.56 / C$24.51= r-22.7% // Urptf 4.53/OIH  229.64= 1.97% @6/25/21

Uranium stocks like Cameco/ CCJ are going to run out of gas, if Uranium prices do not  pick up. 

They have run ahead with Oil prices and oil stocks, but now are too far ahead of U prices, as measured by URPTF,

Uranium Participation, whose management is going to Sprott

Ratio: CCJ to URPTF: = C$24.51/ C$5.56= r-4.41

Ratio: OIH  229.64 / Urptf - $4.53= r- 50.7x @6/25/21

I reckon that Ratio of CCJ-to-Urptf, Now 4,4x might retest the breakout point of 3.75x, or even get back inside the range, especially if Oil prices stall

[drbubb]

I think Sprott will be very innovative around URPTF, creating new derivatives and other instruments to help hedge the Uranium price,

both Long term and Short term, enhancing the ability to finance expensive new projects

Apr 28, 2021

Uranium Participation Corporation Announces Agreement with Sprott Asset Management to Modernize Business Structure and Pursue U.S. Listing

Transaction Highlights

• Modernized business structure with lower corporate operating costs – The trust structure offers lower annual corporate costs and aligns UPC's business with the world's leading physical commodity investment vehicles.
• Sprott Physical Uranium Trust to seek a US listing – UPC previously evaluated the potential for a US listing and determined that it would not meet listing requirements under its current corporate form. As a trust, the prospect of obtaining a US listing on the NYSE Arca or similar exchange, is significantly improved. Sprott Asset Management has a very good track record of listing physical commodity investment vehicles in the US and has committed to fund up to CAD$1.5 million in costs associated with seeking a US listing
• Access to Sprott's Robust Sales & Marketing Capabilities – Sprott is a global brand with a highly successful fund marketing platform and extensive client base providing access to more than 200,000 investors. Leveraging this platform is expected to grow UPC's shareholder base and increase liquidity.
• UPC to receive a cash contribution of ~CAD$6.7 million– On closing of the Transaction, Sprott Asset Management will make a cash contribution equal to 1% of UPC's net asset value as of March 31, 2021 – the proceeds of which may be used by the Trust to purchase additional uranium holdings.

=====

They need to create a Forward Curve of Uranium prices, and build a Swaps market to hedge out 3, 5 or even 10 years into the future