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drbubb

Uranium & Cameco (etf: URA/ U.t, CCJ / CCO.t)

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Fall to USD $4 coming?

URPTF / Uranium Participation ... from 2016: / Last; US$4.53 x 7.13 = $32.3 est. U price.  $5 X 7.13= $35.65

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URPTF : 2005

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Uranium Price : $32.30

URANIUM SWAP PRICES - Pure Guess !
Might look something like this
Period: U=pr.: vs.5 yr.  =====. / 7.13
Mid21: 32.50: (28.90) 52.9% / $4.55
YE-21: 38.00: (23.40) 61.9% / $5.33
 2022 : 45.00: (16.40)                ====
YE-22: 52.00 : (9.40) 73.3%  / $7.29
 2023 : 55.00 : (6.40)                 ====
 2024 : 62.00 : $0.60:                ====
 2025 : 70.00 : $8.60:                ====
 2026 : 75.00 : 13.60: 122.%.   10.52
5year $61.40: =====  =====   $8.61

URANIUM SWAPS may be coming...

+ They need to create a Forward Curve of Uranium prices, and build a Swaps market to hedge out 3, 5 or even 10 years into the future

(This is the sort of thing I pioneered with Oil prices back around 1994.  My bank used to know where 100% of the back end of the Oil futures were hedged using swaps)

+ The trick will be to find players on both sides: this that want to be Long swaps (utilities) and those that want ti be Short swaps (U miners), and find a way to bridge the timing issues, when the parties want hedges of different periods

+ Banks including Investment banks like Goldman Sachs might step into the market, to help provide liquidity for Uranium swaps, and give Utilities the price hedges they want over the periods they want.  Utilities should be a good risk for these swaps, and the U miners who are in production, can use their reserves and their production facilities to back their credit risk.  This will help to drive consolidation in the sector, since Junior companies will find it difficult to get swap hedges, and finance the building of new mines

( Comment;  Analysts have no doubt that eventually we are heading towards 100-150 or more towards the middle or later in the decade. 

Forward curve in to late years will have a bid and offer spread for a bus to go through !!! )

+ Yeah.  There-in lies the profit incentive to create a Uranium swaps market.  Cameco itself could take a leading position in creating the market, taking liens on mines they are financing

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PRICE CAN DOUBLE... by just climbing the Forward Curve, I reckon

"Uranium price over the next 5 years will double"

"Uranium stocks have tripled at a time when Uranium prices have hardly moved'

Uranium Price is Set To Double: Here's Where Rick Rule Is Investing Today
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Update : cco.t: $21.54, ccj: 17.19, mga: 0.205, fcu: 0.55, lam: 0.475

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Update

xx

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