DrBubb's Diary - March 2018 Trading - v.110

[drbubb]

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

: : :

: :: :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d :

[drbubb]

GAP down on Tariff news

spy ... update

09:31 Dow Jones Industrial Average sheds 260 points MarketWatch
09:31 American Axle upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley MarketWatch
09:31 S&P 500 down by 0.8% MarketWatch
09:30 U.S. stocks open lower as Trump prepares to announce China tariffs MarketWatch

[drbubb]

RANDGOLD / RSS could be at a Buying level

RSS.L ... update

[drbubb]

Tariff Terror in the Stock Market : SPX - 2.4%

Tony C's Comment :

SPX hit 2642, then closed at 2644, lost 2.40%,

The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week. Monday’s gap down broke the impulsive possibility of an uptrend. Today’s gap down broke support around SPX 2700, and the market moved much lower. Overall, a big day on the downside. The recent C wave decline has nearly reached a 61.8% retracement of wave B (2533-2802), and there is a potential positive divergence at today’s low.

Due for a bounce in this volatile environment? Looking out a few days/weeks, a return to SPX 2533 appears to be the markets objective. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum displaying a +div. Best to your trading!

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/03/22/thursday-update-618/

asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:

March 22, 2018 at 4:39 pm

mcg…IMHO, the market’s decline was exacerbated by 2 statements.
1. Trump said there could be additional tariffs against China.
2. Wilbur Ross confirmed Trumps statement that there could be additional tariffs against China. He is waiting for China to make their statement and is either expecting a saving face statement or a token slap on the wrist retaliation.

Financial markets are totally different today than 1987. We have a proactive FOMC and many financial instruments to control the market. What extend if any they will come to bear (excuse the pun on words) are on current trading activity is an open question in my mind.

Holly Silver says:

March 22, 2018 at 3:28 pm

Great chart and I certainly hope there is follow thru tomorrow. As for another chart I use it calls for a possible stall very close to where we finished. ESH18 lows today was at 2642. Critical support is at 2631.88. if it can break below tomorrow the next target is 2544.

Jack kendo says:

March 22, 2018 at 3:50 pm

Holly, Thank you
I like the way you posting, a complete package of analyzing ( i see them as market related, not political) and with trade to support.
still holding the “absurdly wild bets” you recommended 2 night ago, 300% gain so far. saved my minor loss on tqqq today.
plan to hold through the expiration tomorrow, let it exercise till the end.
hope you added some puts yesterday or today? any more trading idea?
do you trade vix?
thanks

Jack kendo says:
March 21, 2018 at 10:44 am
Holly, did you pull the trigger on the “absurdly wild bets”, or still considering?
I entered some small orders as an insurance.
I see that as a brilliant idea, thank you.
cheers!

Reply

• Holly Silver says:

  March 22, 2018 at 4:00 pm

  Yes I did add today when we had that early retrace. Also holding on for the follow thru tomorrow. no guarantees. I mentioned above we are near a strong support at 2631 but I personally doubt it holds for more than an hour or so. if it does break below it could be sharp and fast. I still think if China stays quiet the continuation down might not occur tomorrow.

  > SPIRAL : http://spiralcalendar.com/

 

[drbubb]

The leverage Bear etfs are approaching Key resistance

TZA and FZA ... update

[drbubb]

ETH still in downtrend

ETH ... update

Bitcoin - Another SELL signal ?

BTS : update- 15min: 60x350 p

==

[drbubb]

HPC headlines

/ 1 /

England & Wales -0.4%, London -4.3% YoY

Evening standard: London leads house price plunge into �the red zone� as market records worst performance since financial crisis

In answer to Frizzers' post below ... the capital heads a year on year slide, now reflected in E&W figures too.

Posted by nickb @ 10:23 AM 2 Comments

/ 2 /

The Independent: Savills becomes latest estate agent to warn over challenging housing market

I just love how 'price declines' are given the politically correct term 'volatility' or 'uncertainty'. It's like how what's unfolded since 2008 has never been labelled a 'depression'. Call it like it is. House prices are going down, led by a much-needed crunch in London. I wouldn't want to be an offshore owner of all those newbuild "LUXURY DEVELOPMENTS" now!!! You don't vote, you don't pay tax, you don't live here, you can't sell because nobody onshore will pay them -- and we don't care!

Posted by sneaker @ 05:12 PM 0 Comments

(No one cares if foreign investors ever make a profit, this makes it seem)

[drbubb]

HPC headlines

/ 1 /

England & Wales -0.4%, London -4.3% YoY

Evening standard: London leads house price plunge into �the red zone� as market records worst performance since financial crisis

In answer to Frizzers' post below ... the capital heads a year on year slide, now reflected in E&W figures too.

Posted by nickb @ 10:23 AM 2 Comments

/ 2 /

The Independent: Savills becomes latest estate agent to warn over challenging housing market

I just love how 'price declines' are given the politically correct term 'volatility' or 'uncertainty'. It's like how what's unfolded since 2008 has never been labelled a 'depression'. Call it like it is. House prices are going down, led by a much-needed crunch in London. I wouldn't want to be an offshore owner of all those newbuild "LUXURY DEVELOPMENTS" now!!! You don't vote, you don't pay tax, you don't live here, you can't sell because nobody onshore will pay them -- and we don't care!

Posted by sneaker @ 05:12 PM 0 Comments

(No one cares if foreign investors ever make a profit, this makes it seem)

[drbubb]

BEHIND the 3% Drop in stocks yesterday - was THIS speech...

WATCH: Trump signs order punishing China on trade

 

[drbubb]

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  : 03/09 :  03/16 :  03/23 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 :  1324.0 : 1312.3 : 1349.9 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 125.39 : 125.54 : 124.60 : 127.61 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 269.08 : 278.87 : 274.20 : 258.05 : -5.95%
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2786.6 : 2752.0 : 2588.3 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 203.4% : 210.5%: 209.7%: 191.7% :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 16.710 :16.470 : 16.610 : 16.270 : 16.580 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.63 : $15.39 : $15.58 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.95: $68.45 : $67.31 : $66.77 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $61.25 : $62.04 : $62.41 : $65.88 : +5.56%
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r-20.43 : r21.61 : r-21.34 : r-21.03 : r-20.48 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.690 : $2.630 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $3.120 : $3.140 : $3.110 : $2.993 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 194.12 : 195.15 : 194.46 : 195.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 385.25 : 390.50 : 382.75 : 377.25 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 500.00 : 489.25 : 467.75 : 460.25 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $19.39: $19.35 : $19.19 : $18.87 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.61%  : 9.90% :  9.92%  :  9.87 % :  9.66% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r3.453 :  r-3.537 : r3.508 : r3.538 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 :: $89.91 : $90.87 : $90.19 : $89.48 ;
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1324.0 : 1312.3 : 1349.9 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.587 : r-1.588 : r-1.562 : r-1.--
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 833.98 :  833.73 : 840.22 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 :  $21.49 : $21.57 : $21.43 : $22.12 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.32 : $19.72 : $19.72 : $20.40 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $31.73 : $31.41 : $32.78 : +xx%
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.95 : $30.04 : $29.38 : $28.65 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $48.13 : $49.75 : $49.21 : $46.89 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3254.5 : 3307.2 : 3269.9 : 3152.8 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8458.6 : 8372.5 : 8238.2 : 7970.8 : -
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $28.44 : $29.70 : $28.87 : $26.82 : -
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 152.35 : 158.92 : 157.80 : 150.05 : -
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1867 : 0.1869 : 0.1830 : 0.1787 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : 11,117 : $8,750 : $8,--- : $8---- :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :  03/02 :  : 03/09 :  03/16 :  03/23 :

[drbubb]

Facebook ZUCK'ing Itself into OBLIVION

==

[drbubb]

(THIS may Red Pill you... if it is not already done)

EPIC ! "What HOPE do you see?"

"Do you know what the opposite of LOVE is?  ... FEAR !"

CROWDER'S EPIC 'NO FEAR' RANT: Freedom is Stronger! | Louder With Crowder

 

Steven Crowder goes off on free speech and the Leftist culture of fear and silencing during his Q&A session at SMU.

[drbubb]

INVISION HAS BEHAVED UNETHICALLY !

They forced me to upgrade at the end of last year - saying: "the old package is being terminated"

When I asked if the "new" but unenhanced package would cost more, they said it would not.

Then, suddenly & without warning in January, they started charging my credit card for $130, instead of the old $45, saying:

" We wanted to let you know that one or more of the purchases on your account are going to expire soon.
Since we have your card details on file, we will attempt to charge this card for these renewals."

— Invision Power Services "

(that sort of uni-lateral charging never happened before 2018. Never! You have seen the site go down!)

I have appealed to Master Charge, saying this charge is Not authorized by me, and I want it reversed for Jan. Feb. and March

So the credit card company may reverse it at any time, and the GEI website would likely go black, if Invision terminates it

If the site does go black, I would strongly recommend against ever doing business with such an unethical company, as Invision.

This is pure dirt-baggery, on the scale of Facebook or Twitter

[drbubb]

21: 270.43 - 0.52  72.6M: 17.86 : 21.86 +0.59 : 126.48 +2.17 12.4M: 1321.0 $65.17 : $89.53 -0.88 : 119.08 +0.13/00, 049: 000, 0508
22: 263.67 - 6.76  130.M: 23.34 : 21.50 -0.36 : 125.98 -0.50 5.19M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $89.63 -0.18 : 120.26 +1.18/
23: 258.05 - 5.62  184.M: 24.87 : 22.12 +0.62 : 127.61 +1.64 12.0M: 1349.9 $65.88 : $89.48 -0.15 : 120.17 -0.09/
26: 265.11 +7.06 122.M: 21.03 : 22.44 +0.32 : 128.28 +0.67 6.13M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $89.05 -0.43 : 119.71 -0.46/

STOCKS JUMP: BIGGEST GAIN SINCE '08...

Wall Street bonuses hit precrisis heights...

[drbubb]

Redrawing the Bitcoin charts -- yet again!

BTS ... 1mo :

[drbubb]

Two Bear etfs - Pulled back from Resistance

FAZ and TZA ... update

[drbubb]

Genuine Fake news?

[drbubb]

Was signing the Omnibus Budget a "Trump Trick"?

Trump has declared "an emergency on the Border"

Trump Outsmarts Pelosi, Schumer on Border Wall

"Trump learns fast...

He did not become a Billionaire without the ability to out-fox people"

[drbubb]

Roseanne Reboot "blew out the roof"!

18 Million  audience

Rush Limbaugh Reaction To Roseanne Barr Show Supporting Donald Trump

[drbubb]

 

 

[drbubb]

Latest
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  : 03/09 :  03/16 :  03/23 : 03/29 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 :  1324.0 : 1312.3 : 1349.9 : 1327.3 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 125.39 : 125.54 : 124.60 : 127.61 : 125.79 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 269.08 : 278.87 : 274.20 : 258.05 : 263.15 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2786.6 : 2752.0 : 2588.3 : 2640.9 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 203.4% : 210.5%: 209.7%: 191.7% : 199.0% :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 16.710 :16.470 : 16.610 : 16.270 : 16.580 : 16.268 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.63 : $15.39 : $15.58 : $15.41 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.95: $68.45 : $67.31 : $66.77: $67.41 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $61.25 : $62.04 : $62.41 : $65.88 : $64.94 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r-20.43 : r21.61 : r-21.34 : r-21.03 : r-20.48 : r-20.44 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.690 : $2.630 : $2.730 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $3.120 : $3.140 : $3.110 : $2.993 : $3.030 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 500.00 : 489.25 : 467.75 : 460.25 : 451.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 385.25 : 390.50 : 382.75 : 377.25 : 387.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 194.12 : 195.15 : 194.46 : 195.25 : 195.36 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $19.39: $19.35 : $19.19 : $18.87: $18.18 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.61%  : 9.90% :  9.92%  :  9.87 % :  9.66% :   9.31% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r3.453 :  r-3.537 : r3.508 : r-3.538 : r-3.707 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 :: $89.91 : $90.87 : $90.19 : $89.48 : $89.81 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1324.0 : 1312.3 : 1349.9 : 1327.3 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.587 : r-1.588 : r-1.562 : r-1.59E : r1.569 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 833.98 :  833.73 : 840.22 : 850. E : 846.12 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 :  $21.49 : $21.57 : $21.43 : $22.12 : $21.98 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.32 : $19.72 : $19.72 : $20.40 : $20.37 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $31.73 : $31.41 : $32.78 : $32.15 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.95 : $30.04 : $29.38 : $28.65 : $29.49 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $48.13 : $49.75 : $49.21 : $46.89 : $48.28 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3254.5 : 3307.2 : 3269.9 : 3152.8 : 3168.9 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8458.6 : 8372.5 : 8238.2 : 7970.8 : 7979.8 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $28.44 : $29.70 : $28.87 : $26.82 : $27.57 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 152.35 : 158.92 : 157.80 : 150.05 : 151.83 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1867 : 0.1869 : 0.1830 : 0.1787 : 0.1816 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : 11,117 : $8,750 :  $8,370 : $8,562 : $7,401 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :  03/02 :  : 03/09 :  03/16 :  03/23 :  03/29 :

[drbubb]

GZZ TOO CHEAP? ... On a relative basis?

Will RZZ breakout here, and drag GZZ higher? 

Looks possible, with RZZ at C$10.25, at the high of the year (C$7.41-$10.25)

GZZ.v / Golden Valley versus RZZ / Abitibi Royalties ... update / GZZ alone : RZZ alone

RZZ - has MktCap of C$116.9M at C$10.25, and GZZ owns 49.2% (C$57.5M)

GZZ - has MktCap of C$32.85M at C$0.26, and owns valuable assets beyond its stake in RZZ

RATIO: GZZ-to-RZZ looks cheap too !

 

The Trigger News item(s) driving RZZ higher could be Q4-2018 earnings, or Drill results, expanding the Deposit

+ March 19th, 2018 News release: "Schedule 2018-2020 Royalties"

Canadian Malartic has provided a 3 year production guidance schedule for areas covered by the Company's NSR's interests during the years 2018-2020.

Gold Estimated Production 3% NSR (2018-2020)
Year    Area*  Tons Mined Gm/t : Mined : Process: Recovered: Stockpiled: Mn.x$1300
2018 Q4 JF     0,907,662  : 0.70 : 20,304 :  12,123  :   10,826  :    08,181    :  $ 26,395 K :
2019 --    JF     1,637,121  : 0.87 : 45,833 :  27,339  :   24,414  :    18,494    : $ 59,582 K :
2020 --    BA    0,362,582  : 0.89 : 10,327 :  08,797  :   07,855  :     01,530    : $ 13,425 K :
2018-20  both   ======= : ==== : 66,464 : ======  :   =====  :     ======   : $ 99,402 K :
=======
US$99.4 /0.775 = C$128.3Mn @ $1300 Gold

+ Feb.20th, 2018 Possible Identification of Additional Royalty Resources / Release: "Update on Malartic Mine Royalties"

Updated Resource Estimate for Odyssey Project

During 2017, a total of 125 holes (86,051 metres) were completed at the Odyssey Project. The 2017 results have been incorporated with previous work to update the mineral resource for the Odyssey Project (inclusive of the North and South zones). Inferred mineral resources are estimated at 1,676,000 ounces of gold (22.5 million tonnes grading 2.32 g/t gold). Indicated mineral resources are estimated at 18,000 ounces of gold (0.2 million tonnes grading 2.45 g/t gold).

(Calculation: 1.68Mn Oz x $1327 = $2,229 M x 3% = $66.9M on Odyssey alone?... much from 2017 drilling?)

Initial Resource Estimate for East Malartic Property

In 2017, an initial inferred mineral resource was declared on the East Malartic Property, which was a historical gold producer directly adjacent to the Canadian Malartic Mine. Inferred mineral resources at East Malartic are estimated at 2,470,000 million ounces of gold (37.9 million tonnes grading 2.02 g/t gold) to a depth of 1,000 metres. Please see Fig. 4 to view the operator's area of focus in 2017 at East Malartic relative to the Company's 3% NSR.

(Calculation: 2.47Mn Oz x $1327 = $3,278 M x 3% = $98.3M on East Malartic alone?...  includes 2017 drilling)

($66.9M + $98.3M = $165.7M vs. C$116.9M x US$0.775 = US$90.6M : 54.7%)

...Abitibi Royalties has not received all or in most cases any of the drill hole data that has not been made public that makes up the Odyssey or East Malartic resource estimates. As of December 31, 2016 all of Odyssey North was contained inside the Company's 3% NSR (inferred resource as of december 31 2016:1)(inferred resource as of december 31 2016:035)(inferred resource as of december 31 2016:051 gold ounces contained in 14)(inferred resource as of december 31 2016:859)(inferred resource as of december 31 2016:650 tonnes at 2.17g/t), the extreme northwest portion of Odyssey South (Inferred Resource as of December 31, 2016: 4,890 gold ounces contained in 110,294 tonnes at 1.38 g/t), based on publicly available information the Company believes the majority of the Jupiter Zones (1-4) and Internal North Zones (N1-N8) (Fig. 5) that are collectively part of the Internal Zones. The Company's 3% NSR covers portions of the East Malartic Property. Abitibi Royalties believes that the areas at East Malartic covered by its NSR include the deep portions of the respective Main/East Zones and the Porphyry Swarm, East Porphyry and Chert/Wedge Zones (Fig. 1, 2, 3 and 4). The latter three zones may straddle the southern property boundary of the Company's NSR at depth and the Chert/Wedge Zone along strike to the east, although there can be no assurances that this is the case. These zones are in addition to the Norrie Zone, which straddles the boundary of the Company's NSR to the west and south (Fig. 3)

(The coming Bonus: An aggressive drilling program):

Canadian Malartic Mine Exploration Budget

Agnico Eagle states that the exploration program for 2018 consists of 140,000 metres of drilling. The focus will be on the shallower portions of the Odyssey South and East Malartic Zone and further drilling to better define the geometry of the higher-grade Internal Zones. (that much drilling might cost US$14 million or more.)

Golden Valley Mines Ltd. and Rob McEwen hold approximately 49.2% and 12.2% interest in Abitibi Royalties, respectively.

> NEWS: http://abitibiroyalties.com/news/2018/

[drbubb]

ABITIBI's FUTURE INCOME SOURCES / From May 2017 Letter

+

+

Physical gold: The Company takes a portion of its royalty income in gold bullion, which should continue to grow each quarter. This should also defer tax.

This is something we have not done for the simple reason that our previous royalty revenue from the Gouldie deposit at the Canadian Malartic mine did not give us this option. The first time we will be able to take our royalty income in gold bullion will be in 2018.  Building an ever-larger stockpile of gold would give shareholders more leverage to the metal, which not only doesn’t take a salary or stock options, but has also outperformed the majority of senior gold miners during the past 15 years.

Share buybacks: The share count goes down, not up.  Few, if any, mining companies follow this strategy. We aim to be different.

One of the reasons why gold bullion has outperformed the majority of gold companies is that it cannot dilute itself. Only mining companies can do that through the unrestrained issuance of new shares. As you will read in this letter, one reason I think the sector has underperformed most investors’ expectations is that shares have been issued by gold producers in their quest for growth by paying high premiums versus the value they receive and by junior explorers who issue shares on unattractive terms in order to fund their exploration programs. 

Exploration: Provides exposure to exciting discoveries.

The good news is that we have a meaningful royalty on a significant discovery at Canada’s largest gold mine that appears to have all the right ingredients to keep getting larger and move towards production. This has been the driving force behind our share price and the reason we have outperformed our peers and gold. The story is no different when you look at the histories of American Barrick, Goldcorp or Franco-Nevada. They were all driven by great discoveries. However, when a mining company touts the “value” of their logistics system to shareholders, you know the days of high returns are probably over.

Truly great gold discoveries are rare and becoming increasingly so.  Without a great discovery, it becomes hard to separate yourself from the crowd.  We should feel lucky knowing Mother Nature has been good to us.

Growing the business: Continually builds its royalty portfolio through cash flow and other creative means.

In mining, “growth” is now a dirty word. Large investors want free cash flow at all costs. Many of these investors were previously beating the drum for more production, more reserves and more leverage! It’s funny how the pendulum can swing from one extreme to the next. The fact is good projects and mines generally deliver excellent returns in both good and bad metals markets. It is up to the management teams to conduct an honest assessment of the economics and risks associated with a project, removing any emotional attachment (I have seen first hand how money can be diverted to a certain project that is favoured by management when clearly a better alternative existed).

The key for profitable growth in mining is to have a small financial footprint, good margins and a quick payback. However, from 2004-2012 almost everyone was looking to build “mega” projects that didn’t meet the above criteria. Today, most companies are either retrenching or afraid to announce a mine build because its share price will decrease.

One of the best pieces of advice I received while working for Rob McEwen, was that if you do the same as everybody else you shouldn’t expect more than the average. This makes a lot of sense and I am sure most would agree with this statement, but how many wake up with this mindset each day? I firmly believe you don’t achieve big things by accident. We also have no desire to be average at Abitibi Royalties because the rewards for being the best are not just a little bit better, they are a lot better. There are many industries or different sports where this plays out every day, but my favourite is the world’s fastest man. Everyone worldwide knows the name Usian Bolt. He is showered with adulation and endorsements. We may never see a sprinter like him again, but do you know who the second fastest man in the world is? He is only a fraction of a second slower (you can Google him). It is amazing how being a little better can translate into a much larger reward. Our objective is to be creative with our growth. We will look internally at organic opportunities such as further developing the Abitibi Royalty Search mentioned later in this letter and developing new royalty ideas.

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2. Cash Flow - It Looks Better Coming In, Than Going Out!

At 40,000 feet, the simple explanation as to how Abitibi Royalties intends to outperform the gold price and its peers is to consistently increase the Company’s free cash flow on a per share basis, year over year, while maintaining a pipeline of high return opportunities that provides future growth a decade from now.  Although everyone in the gold industry sings this gospel, the vast majority will fall short.

In 2016, Abitibi Royalties generated cash flow of approximately CDN$920,000 (royalties, dividends and option premiums). The Company’s cash flow is expected to increase further based on our royalties at the Jeffrey Zone and Barnat Extension entering production. This increase in cash flow excludes any potential production from our largest royalty, Odyssey North or from the Near Pit Targets, both of which are located at the Canadian Malartic mine and outlined below.

For much of this letter, we will detail how we expect free cash flow to increase both short and long-term with NO new shares being issued. In fact, we expect the share count to DECREASE.

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3. Royalties at Canadian Malartic – Canada’s Largest Gold Mine

In 2016, Canadian Malartic remained the largest gold mine in Canada, producing approximately 585,000 ounces of gold. None of this production came from areas where we hold a royalty, since these portions of the mine are either being permitted for production, which is expected to start in 2018 (Jeffrey Zone and Barnat East) or they are at an advanced exploration stage.

The biggest issue facing the Canadian Malartic mine is replacing its reserves within the open pit, which have been falling for a number of years and decreased again in 2016. We think this is a positive for our royalties since it gives the operators of the mine (Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold) an incentive to invest heavily in exploration and move Odyssey towards production. It is also having them look at commencing production from several Near Pit Targets around and below the open pit, where we also own a royalty.  We think the combination of near term cash flow, development of Odyssey North/Near Pit Targets, along with a large exploration program that includes significant drill results such as those coming from Odyssey North/Internal Zone, is setting the stage for continued outperformance.

A) Odyssey North Discovery (3% NSR) – Be thou also bold, / And Merit praise from ages to come  

In 2016, the operators completed one of the largest drill programs in Canada at the Odyssey Project, which totaled approximately 120,000 metres of drilling. This was double the initial 60,000 metres budgeted at the start of the year. In 2017, the operators are undertaking another large drill program. Should exploration continue to discover more ounces, we would not be surprised to see the amount of drilling increased, similar to last year.  Abitibi Royalties holds a 3% NSR on the portion of Odyssey that is within the boundaries of Malartic CHL (part of the Canadian Malartic mine), which includes Odyssey North and a small portion of Odyssey South. Please see our corporate website (www.abitibiroyalties.com) for maps showing the project area.

It is my view that our royalty on Malartic CHL, where Odyssey North is currently the largest driver of value, has the potential to become one of the sectors best gold royalties:

1. Initial Resource: The initial inferred resource for Odyssey, within the boundary of our royalty, totaled 1,039,941 ounces (14,969,946 tons (metric) at an average grade of 2.16 gpt). This was after only 1.5 years of continual drilling.
    
2. New Discovery: The resource estimate did not include the new Internal Zone, where a number of significant drill results have recently been released that could increase mineral resources and enhance the economics of the Odyssey Project by adding higher grade ounces, requiring minimal additional infrastructure to access (please see our news releases dated February 21, 2017 and May 8, 2017 for full details). Last year we stated that the total number of ounces needed to be classified as a “world-class” royalty would be 4 million. With the initial Odyssey resource, combined with the other zones on the property where a resource has been calculated, plus the new Internal Zone and opportunities such as the Norrie Zone, good progress is being made towards this goal.
    
3. Additional Exploration: As highlighted above, the mine operators are planning another large exploration program in 2017. Odyssey has the type of potential where a single drill hole could have a significant impact on the share price of Abitibi Royalties. Not many gold discoveries have this “game changing” ability.
    
4. Possible Production: Yamana states that Odyssey supports optionality for enhanced production and life of mine at Canadian Malartic and that it could operate between 8,000-10,000 tonnes per day (tpd). Although more details are needed from the operators to determine the impact this will have on our portion of the royalty, it is big step forward and we are impressed with the progress that is being made.

Why do we think our Odyssey royalty is moving into the category of world-class? First, our royalty is sizable at 3%. Second, the deposit is demonstrating significant size and growth potential after only 1.5 years of continual drilling. In the world of gold mining, Odyssey is moving ahead quickly with the operators having a real incentive to see it enter production. Third, and this is a point not recognized by a lot of investors, it is part of Canada’s largest gold mine, which includes a very large mill at 55,000 tonnes per day (tpd). Why is this important? The grade of Odyssey is approximately twice the grade of the current open pit and therefore with the same amount of rock, you get twice the number of ounces. Should the operators believe Odyssey’s ounces are more profitable to mine, they can scale back the open pit and ramp-up Odyssey. There is a lot of optionality for Odyssey with a mill that large. Few royalties enjoy this type of advantage because the daily tonnage for most mills is fixed or if expanded, take many years to complete.  Abitibi Royalties enjoys a “free” option that is unique in the royalty sector.

Jeffrey and Barnat East (3% NSR)

The Jeffrey and Barnat East deposits, where Abitibi Royalties holds a 3% NSR are expected to become our next source of near term cash flow. In previous letters we outlined how shareholders should not be surprised if the permitting process to begin production took longer than the operators had indicated. Permitting always takes longer than you think, even when you have two great operating companies like Agnico Eagle and Yamana running a mine. As of this letter, the final permits appear to be approximately 6 months behind schedule. Therefore, production is expected to start in 2018. This doesn’t concern us at all. Although there is always an opportunity cost associated with a delay and one can’t dismiss the time value of money, we won’t be losing any sleep or incurring any costs over the delay. Best of all, gold doesn’t have an expiry date. Canadian Malartic is a large driver of economic activity throughout the Abitibi region and we fully expect the few permits that are outstanding will be approved shortly.

C) Near Pit Targets (2-3% NSR)

Abitibi Royalties owns various royalties that are located south (2% NSR on the eastern portion of Gouldie and all of the Charlie Zone) and east of the main Canadian Malartic open pit (3% NSR on the eastern portions of Barnat East, Sheehan and the Barnat South Wall Contact). The operators of the mine began exploring these target areas in 2016 and have recently announced that they are evaluating the possibility of production between 2018-2020, which could include the areas where we own a royalty. This would represent a new source of cash flow for Abitibi Royalties that could be reinvested and thus compounded.  Although we don’t believe these areas are in a reserve category, nor have they been officially approved for production, we like the steps that are being taken in order to move them forward.

The best royalty to own is one that delivers high rates of production over decades. This is why we invest in royalties. In addition to Odyssey, the target area around the Canadian Malartic open pit that we think holds this type of potential, although at an early stage, is Barnat East. Below the proposed Barnat East open pit, there was underground mining, which is now covered by our 3% NSR. This area of underground mining was part of the East Malartic mine. At the bottom of East Malartic a bulk tonnage zone was discovered known as Norrie, where historic drilling intersected several wide intervals of gold mineralization (a confirmation drill hole was completed in 2008), but at the time no mining method was known that could extract the gold at a profit. However, new mining techniques are reshaping the economics for these types of deposits and making them profitable to mine. Examples include Agnico Eagles’ Goldex mine, located approximately 20 kilometres east of Canadian Malartic.

The biggest unknown is how much further the Norrie Zone extends, both to surface and at depth. Although very early and not without risk, we believe this area could become an important, long-term asset for Abitibi Royalties.

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4. Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold Shares

In our first letter to shareholders back in 2015 we wrote, “The shares of Agnico Eagle and Yamana should be viewed as another royalty within our portfolio (and a valuable royalty at that!)”.  Today, I stand firmly behind this statement.

During the two and a half years we have owned shares in Agnico Eagle and Yamana they have been a good source of cash flow through regular and special dividends of approximately (CDN$0.9 million), call and put option premiums (CDN$1.2 million), share price appreciation and capital gains (CDN$5.1 million). Our initial shares that were worth CDN$35 million have generated a total value of approximately CDN$42.2 million.

>  http://abitibiroyalties.com/investors/letter-to-shareholders/may92017/

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Bitcoin price tested lows, and has bounced somewhat - & is now back over $7,000

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Gold may have put in its major Low - but is still struggling with Resistance (xx wk-MA)

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