drbubb Posted April 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2018 Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H : : : : : :: : 3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?) Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img : HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv ========================================== Don’t expect the U.S. government to take advantage of a flat yield curve MarketWatch Yet another ‘outside day’ in stocks is an ominous sign MarketWatch Facebook posts huge earnings beat, shares surge MarketWatch With the yield curve at its flattest in several years, some investors and analysts have suggested the Treasury Department should sell more longer-dated debt to keep its borrowing costs down. But Sam Elprince, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Stanley, said suddenly issuing more longer-dated bonds to take advantage of a flat yield curve would break the Treasury’s cardinal principle of “regular and predictable issuance,” in a note dated last Friday. “The Treasury does not try to time the market by issuing long-term debt when the curve is flat and shorter-term debt when the curve is steep,” he said. It’s not surprising some see a flat yield curve as an opportunity to cap the rise in the government’s borrowing costs as debt service payments are forecast to take up a larger chunk of the federal budget. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, interest payments could take up more than 3.5% of GDP in 2028, compared with 1.4% last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2018 GLD has decoupled from TLT ... update : GDX-etc : There was even a period when they moved in opposite directions Ratio : GDX -to-GLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2018 Gold watch that support level at near $1305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2018 CHART : Calendar 2014 - 18 : update : / 10d: HK10 : HK101 : Both : 870001 : update-4/26/18: $23.95, $18.40 Hang Lung Properties (HK:101) closed yesterday (Sept.8th at): +$17.40 + 0.40 :: +2.35% Open: 17.30 / High: 17.48 / Low: 17.00 // Volume: 672,675 Yield: 1.95% / P/E Ratio: 6.90 / 52 Week Range: 16.96 to 26.45 COMPARE - HLG owns almost 53% of HLP ++ some other assets =========== : -- Aug. 2015 --- / --- Apr. 2018 -- / Company----- : Group- : -Props. / Group- : -Props. / Change : Change : Stock Symbol: HK-10 : HK101 / HK-10 : HK101 / Last Price---- : $29.10 : $17.40 / $23.95 : $18.40 / -17.7% : +5.75% : Low of year--: $28.60 : $16.96 / $23.85 : $17.28 / Book Value-- : $56.86 : $29.50 / $61.06 : $30.27 / +7.39% : +2.61% : Price / Book- : 51.2 % : 59.0 % / 39.1 % : 57.1 % / Shares O/S -- : 1.35bn : 4.48bn / 1.36bn : 4.50bn / MktCap. HKD : $39.3B : $78.0B / $32.6B : $82.8B / Earnings / sh : $ 4.82 : $ 2.52 / $ 3.90 : $ 1.81 / -19.1% : -18.2% : P/E Ratio -------- : r-6.04 : r-6.90 / r-6.14 : r-10.17 / Yield -------------- : 1.30 % : 1.95 % / 3.34 % : 4.08 % / Div. per share : $ 0.38 : $ 0.34 / $ 0.80 : $0.75 / +111.% : +121.% : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Gold in CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Correction may be over BTS ... 5mos 12mos == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 : 10d/ FB : AMZN : AAPL : NFLX : GOOG : SPX CHARTED together... SPY-etc ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 XLF ... update The Purge Begins: Deutsche Bank Fires 400 US Bankers The purge began overnight when Deutsche fired 300 U.S.-based investment bankers on Wednesday with another 100 pink slips expected over the next 24 hours. XRT ... update Retail Rents Plunge 20% Across Manhattan "I think we will start to see some more of the savvier tenants of companies realize we’re starting to get to a point where they can drive some good deals for themselves..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Ignore Gold's Short-Term Momentum And Play The Long-Term ... Kitco NewsApr 26 “Gold investors are paying a lot more attention to long-term trends than this short-term momentum,” he said. “Investors are a lot more interested in diversifying into safe-liquid assets and gold is the first real liquid asset.” Not only has gold benefited from a downtrend in the U.S. dollar, but Milling-Stanley said that falling equity and bond markets also make gold an attractive investment. Milling-Stanley’s comments come as the U.S. 10-year bond yields pushed above 3% for the first time since 2014. Bond yields run inversely to prices. “Investors are asking themselves where do they go when both bond and equity markets are falling. Gold is the only asset left and that is what investors are starting to recognize” said Milling-Stanley. “Nobody is about how great equities are going to be this year. They are all asking themselves how bad it is going to get.” GBS.L / Update / 2 / Silver Short Squeeze Unable to Ignite the Gold Sector...Yet David ErfleFriday April 20, 2018 13:58 In the early hours on Wednesday, I alerted readers to a short squeeze which was beginning to take place in the silver market. Silver rallies are typically an inflation play, so the shorts began to cover when the CRB Index began to rally towards its January high. However, while silver has risen nearly 4% this week, it has yet to ignite the gold sector which stalled yet again near strong resistance at $1365 and sold off $15 into the COMEX close on Thursday. As I have written in a previous missive, gold must close above $1,365 for a long-awaited breakout. Since the nearly 3% gain in silver took place on Wednesday, we will be unable to determine how many short contract positions are being covered by speculators into next Tuesday, until April 27th. The Commitment of Traders reports (CoT) are released each Friday but only show data through the previous Tuesday. The speculator short covering paused at the $17.20 area yesterday and the market may soon begin to lean on the confluence of resistance around the $17.50 region. This level represents resistance from multiple technical sources, including the 90 and 120 week moving averages, the weekly trend from July of 2016, and the daily trend dating back to April of last year. A close above $17.50 should spook the speculative shorts even more, further fueling the rally and targeting long-term resistance at $18.50. Meanwhile, the miners have also been unable to benefit from the bullish situation in the silver space with the GDX rally stalling at the $23 resistance region. The miners are close to being short-term over-bought on a daily basis, so a bit of consolidation around this level would be healthy. We still need a solid close above the $25 level in the major miner ETF for confirmation of a breakout in the miners. Although the continued failure of gold breaking out is further frustrating the long suffering precious metal bulls, silver is beginning to lead gold, bringing down the gold/silver ratio from 82 to 78 and it should continue to fall. Silver out-performing gold is a sign of a healthy bull market based on long-term economic fundamentals including rising inflation. Although gold stocks have already been leading the price of gold since the global equity panic ended on February 9th, silver out-performing gold has been a missing ingredient for an imminent breakout in gold stocks. Furthermore, this week’s surge in commodities has been attracting the attention of market timers, as rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. The Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) is near an upside breakout and is testing overhead resistance at its January high. Although the CRB Index has already reached a two-year high, a close above its January peak would put it at the highest level in more than two years. This index began a new uptrend from a major bottom at the same time the GDX began a massive six month up-leg from its major bottom in early January of 2016. Crude oil, which is also an inflation gauge, has already reached a three-year high this week. Since the end of 2017, U.S. dollar weakness has been the biggest driver of strength in gold and continues to work off an oversold condition by trading sideways for the past three months. While the gold price is trading sideways and building strength for what appears to be an imminent breakout, the worlds reserve currency has been creating what appears to be a bearish flagging pattern on the Cash Settle Index at the same time. The U.S. dollar low of March 30th at 88.53 should be monitored closely and violating this level could spark a gold sector rally and a subsequent breakout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 UK Gold stocks are signaling a JUMP in GDX, GDXJ today CEY, & RRS - vs. GDXJ ... update CEY-etc .... 6-mos == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2018 Gold Has Explosive Potential - Gundlach Neils Christensen Friday April 27, 2018 (Kitco News) - Famed hedge fund manager and “bond king of Wall Street” Jeffrey Gundlach continues to be bullish on gold, reiterating his call that when the market breaks above through critical resistance at $1,360 an ounce, gold will push $1,000 higher. According to recent Reuers article, Gundlach presented his bullish case for gold Tuesday at an event for DoubleLine clients. He also said that he is bearish on U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. government bonds “are not attractive,” he said. Looking at classical technical gold charts, Gundlach said that “something big is happening.” He added that the market has “explosive potential energy” as it continues to build a strong base. “Gold is maintaining an upward pattern above its rising 200-day moving average, which is extremely good,” he said. “I’m not predicting it....I’m letting the market prove itself.” Gundlach’s comments on gold come as the market tests the bottom end of its near-term range as prices trade near a one-month low. June gold futures last traded at $1,323.10 an ounce. While Gundlach’s is bullish on gold, he is just as bearish on U.S. Treasuries. He said that 10-year bond yields can continue to move higher. His comments came a day before the yields briefly pushed past 3% for the first time since 2014. Positive for gold investors, higher bond yields might not have a major impact on gold prices as some analysts might expect. During his presentation, Gundlach said that rising inflation pressures will put pressure on government bonds. Gold as a non-yielding asset does well in an environment where real interest rates are negative, which happens when inflation rises above bond yields. Gundlach’s comments on gold and U.S. bonds came a day after his presentation at the Sohn Investment Conference, where he recommended buying the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE: XOP) and shorting Facebook. / XOP He said at the Sohn conference that he is bullish on commodities as inflation rises. He noted that inflation traditionally rises into a recession. > http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-04-27/Gold-Has-Explosive-Potential-Gundlach.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Is the Dollar's (brief, sharp) rally over on a "shooting star"? DXY ... update A Shooting Star Forecasts Dollar Weakness Kitco CommentaryApr 27 According to Investopedia, “Shooting stars indicate potential price tops and reversals. The shooting star candle is most effective when it forms after a series of at least three or more consecutive rising candles with higher highs. As the price rises, buyers get impatient waiting for a pullback, and leapfrog over one another to purchase shares. Eventually, the buying frenzy hits a peak as the last of the immediate buyers jump into the stock (or any financial instrument) in a greed-driven panic to mark the highest high of the preceding series of candles.” It is precisely this Japanese candlestick type that resulted from today’s trading activity. It meets the criteria in that it occurred after a defined and sustained uptrend. The fact that this candle was found at the 50% retracement is also significant. As such we could very well see the dollar’s value begin to decline over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 GOLD in Other Currencies - in EUR - in JPY ... Could be a Head & Shoulders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Silver, & Gold shares - a weaker pullback SLV... update Pullbacks are getting more shallow, and with weaker volume. The last upmove could be a "kickoff" ... or just a dead-cat bounce - we will soon see which it is Although the recent pattern in gold has become ugly, there should be a dead-cat bounce in the metal in the next couple of days. Gold has been in a consolidation pattern for months and once again the metal is coming down to the bottom end, which suggests a bounce. Even if gold headed lower, which is expected, a healthy bounce to $1,330-$1,340 is in the cards. Gold has become very oversold the last four to five days, falling about 3% since hitting $1,360. The bounce should come from between $1,310-$1,315 and should be a fast, vicious rally that will come out of nowhere. Silver is trading midrange, holding support above its most recent breakout level. Look for silver to remain strong and bounce with gold. We still like the long-silver, short-gold trade and will look to take advantage of the expected bounce in gold. > http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-04-27/Gold-Should-Bounce.html / 2 / GDX - Gold stocks ... update In late January, gold was trading at $1365 and while it corrected $55 in 2 weeks, the GDX lost over 16% during the same time span. It has been my contention the GDX made its final low on February 9th, just below critical support at the $21 level. The final spike low was made just a half hour before the session ended, then reversed over 2% on huge volume to un-changed on the day. Major over-sold spike lows, which usually occur during lengthy gold stock consolidations, have a habit of ending with a sharp sell-off and an intra-day reversal in the GDX on large volume. In hindsight, after the inevitable break-out of extended gold stock consolidations, these intra-day reversal moves can eventually turn out to be THE major low before an impulse move higher begins. Moreover, with the new Q1 2018 earnings season getting underway, the two largest global gold producers, Barrick Gold (ABX) & Newmont Mining (NEM), issued their Q1 results this week and both have maintained their respective quarterly dividends. Barrick was in-line with analysts’ expectations, while the Newmont result was ahead of market expectations for around 33 cents per share, according to news reports. In fact, the NEM share price made a 52-week high close this month and is trending upwards towards a multi-year high close. Both of these major miners make up a combined 20% of the holdings in GDX. The gold price appears to be targeting the $1300 level as we head into month end on Monday. Since the miners have been outperforming the gold price and trending higher during the past few months, they may be signaling this critical support level in bullion will hold before finally breaking out above long-term resistance at $1365 very soon. http://juniorminerjunky.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Another failing stock rally? SPY ... update Comments from tony c's blog I do believe TONY is not seeing any sign of a resumed bull here. I guess people use his advise when it fits their own. AT a minimum we should test the 258-7 area again. R D. says: April 27, 2018 at 8:34 pm Today was probably the most bearish day I have seen in a long time. Starting with yesterday’s globex and ending with today’s black candle bonanza. A funny black swan feeling…glad I’m short. Today wave E ended and the JPN225 made top. Tony have a great weekend. shortlongshafted says: April 27, 2018 at 7:30 pm I’m with TC. All this price action doesn’t make me think “this is an uptrend” Even when it goes up it’s jerky and volatile. Convinced this is corrective still. phil1247 says: April 27, 2018 at 12:11 pm lots of hoopla this week about 3% treasury note armageddon face ripper squeeze possible if ext short breaks fotis2 says: April 27, 2018 at 12:13 pm I lost count how many ”analysts” were calling for a crash if 3 was hit even my fav Cathy Lien > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/04/26/thursday-update-623/#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Mostly quiet week, as 10-yr Bond failed to break 3%; & North & South Korea met ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg : 01/05 : 02/02 : 03/02 : 03/29 : 04/06 : 04/13 : 04/20 : 04/27 : Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1327.3 : 1336.1 : 1347.9 : 1338.3 : 1323.4 : GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 125.39 : 125.79 : 126.39 : 127.45 : 126.63 : 125.50 : SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 269.08 : 263.15 : 259.72 : 265.18 : 266.61 : 266.56 : SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2604.5 : 2656.3 : 2670.1 : 2669.9 : Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 203.4% : 199.0%: 194.9%: 197.1%: 199.5%: 201.7% : Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 17.285 : 16.710 :16.470 : 16.268 : 16.360 : 16.660 : 17.160 : 16.500 : SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.41 : $15.43 : $15.68 : $16.13 : $15.57 :XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.95: $67.41: $67.35 : $71.41 : $73.30 : $73.82 : WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $61.25 : $64.94 : $62.06 : $67.39 : $68.30 : $68.10 : Au/Wt: r-21.4 : r-21.7 : ====== : r21.52 : r-20.43 : r21.61 : r-20.44 : r-21.53 : r-20.01 : r-19.59 : r-19.43 : Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.700 : $2.730 : $2.740 : $2.770 : Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $3.120 : $3.030 : $3.060 : $3.070 : $3.130 : $3.050 : Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 500.00 : 451.00 : 472.25 : 472.50 : 477.25 : 498.50 : Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 385.25 : 387.75 : 388.50 : 386.25 : 385.50 : 398.50 : CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 194.12 : 195.36 : 192.25 : 199.70 : 201.92 : 201.39 :DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $19.39: $18.18: $18.72 : $18.91 : $18.85 : $19.22 : D/crb: 10.37% : 9.67% : ====== : 9.73% : 9.61% : 9.90% : 9.31% : 9.74% : 9.47% : 9.34% : 9.54% : Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r3.453 : r-3.707 : r-3.600 : r-3.776 : r3.888 : r3.841 : DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 :: $89.91 : $89.81 : $89.78 : $89.50 : $90.07 : $91.53 : TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 125.71 : 119.58 :: 118.35 : 121.90 :121.10 : 120.90 : 118.46 : 118.89 : === Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1327.3 : 1336.1 : 1347.9 : 1338.3 : 1323.4 : Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.587 : r-1.569 : r-1.554 : r-1.557 : r-1.546 : r-1.519 : Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 833.98 : 846.12 : 859.99 : 865.89 : 865.89 : 871.20 : GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 : $21.49 : $21.98 : $22.07 : $22.89 : $22.71 : $22.73 : WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.32 : $20.37 : $20.60 : $21.24 : $21.31 : $21.35 : Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $32.15 : $32.39 : $33.49 : $33.40 : $33.03 : PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.95 : $29.49 : $30.03 : $29.29 : $28.54 : $31.06 : EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $48.13 : $48.28 : $47.08 : $47.57 : $47.26 : $47.26 : ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3254.5 : 3168.9: 3131.1 : 3159.1 : 3071.5 : 3082.2 : PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8458.6 : 7979.8: 7945.7 : 7900.0 : 7726.7 : 7721.0 : XLF- : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $28.44 : $27.57: $27.17 : $27.46 : $27.88 : $27.70 : IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 152.35 : 151.83: 150.36 : 153.95 : 155.55 : 154.60 : F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ===== : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1867 : 0.1816 : 0.1807 : 0.1784 : 0.1792 : 0.1791 : BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : 11,117 : $7,401 : $6,589 : $8,109 : $8,472 : $9,230 :==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg : 01/05 : 02/02 : 03/02 : 03/29 : 04/06 : 04/13 : 04/20 Barrons Data : http://www.barrons.com/data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV_DATA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Recent BITCOIN prices over 5-days - Almost Live (( Historical charts )) : 8yr : 2yr : NYSE Bitcoin Index / NYXBT ... 3yr : 1yr : 6mo : 2-yrs w/Weekly Bitstamp price data : 2yr-w.D : 2yr : 1yr : 6mo : ======== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 A BULLISH E-wave Count ? GLD ... 10yr : 5yr : 3yr-w : 12mo : update : 6-mos gld-10yr : slv-all : gdx-10yr : gdxj-10yr : hui-all : asa-all : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Is Donald J.Trump really George Patton, reincarnated? George S. Patton, Born: November 11, 1885, San Gabriel, CA Died: December 21, 1945, Heidelberg, Germany Donald J. Trump Born: June 14, 1946 Queens, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 $100 Oil Is Back On The Table By Nick Cunningham - Apr 18, 2018 Oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia gets its way. Only a week ago, news surfaced that Saudi officials were quietly hoping to push oil prices up to $80 per barrel, which would help boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco IPO. But why not $100 per barrel? Reuters reports that Riyadh would be fine with prices rising that far, which lends weight to the notion that OPEC will keep the production cuts in place even as its mission to drain surplus oil inventories around the world appears to be largely “accomplished.” OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are even considering yet another extension that would push the cuts into the middle of 2019. But with inventories back to average levels and expected to fall for the foreseeable future, the production limits would surely push the market into a deficit. The over-tightening, presumably, would lead to higher oil prices…just in time for the Aramco IPO. OPEC just posted its fifth consecutive month in which it recorded a new record high compliance rate with the production limits. In March, according to Bloomberg, the compliance rate surged to 164 percent, a new high, up from 148 percent in February. Unsurprisingly, output fell in Venezuela, but Saudi Arabia also chipped in further reductions. Two industry sources told Reuters that behind closed doors, Saudi officials have considered $80 per barrel, or even $100 per barrel, as sort of unofficial price targets. “We have come full circle,” a third high-level industry source told Reuters. “I would not be surprised if Saudi Arabia wanted oil at $100 until this IPO is out of the way.” . . . Indeed, Saudi Arabia is still posting large fiscal deficits, which, if left unaddressed, present a long-term threat. Saudi foreign cash reserves are down to $488 billion, down a third from their peak in August 2014 at $737 billion, although to be sure, the pace of drawdowns has slowed. “Their breakeven is around $85 per barrel,” according to Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, citing a reason why they might continue to favor higher prices. The risk of over-tightening the market, of course, is that it sparks an even greater response from U.S. shale. For now, a shortage of pipeline capacity in the Permian might insulate OPEC from the worst, but those bottlenecks will eventually be resolved. Get ready for the most expensive driving season in years... Crude oil prices are at the highest level in more than three years and expected to climb higher, pushing up gasoline prices along the way. The U.S. daily national average for regular gasoline is now $2.81 per gallon. That's up from about $2.39 per gallon a year ago, according to Oil Price Information Service. And across the U.S., 13 percent of gas stations are charging $3 per gallon or more, AAA said last week. "This will be the most expensive driving season since 2014," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service. $300 Oil 'Not Impossible'... Andurand says on Twitter lack of investment risks price spike Higher prices aren’t a threat to the economy, Andurand says Pierre Andurand, one of oil’s most prominent hedge fund managers, said the current reluctance of energy companies to invest in new production meant $300 a barrel was "not impossible" within a few years. Andurand, who’s often espoused bullish views, said in a series of tweets on Sunday that concern about the impact of electric vehicles on future demand was limiting investment in projects with long lead times. "So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever," he wrote. "If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible." The hedge fund manager, who runs oil-focused Andurand Capital Management LLP, also went against the conventional view that triple-digit oil prices will dampen demand growth. "So no, $100 oil will not kill the economy," he wrote. "And we need +$100 oil to encourage enough investments outside of the U.S." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 Gold To Slide To $1,312; Silver Overdue For Breakout - Phil Streible (Part1) Apr 27, 2018 Guest(s): Phillip Streible Senior Market Strategist, RJO Futures Gold prices are likely to continue falling on the back of rising yields and a strong dollar, said Phil Streible, senior market analyst at RJO Futures. “The 3% yield really shook the cage of the gold bulls, and we saw gold prices sell off. I think they’re going to continue to slide down, most likely [to] the 200-day moving average around $1,312 an ounce,” Streible told Kitco News. On silver, Streible said that strong catalysts are needed to push the white metal past its current trading range. “Silver has been trapped in that channel, between $16 an ounce to $17 an ounce, we’ve been there for three months. Something is going to cause it to break out to the upside, it’s just a question of what it is. We saw ETF inflows really come in strong into silver, and I think that it’s just winding up,” he said. (show less) – Phil Streible (Part 2) Investors should seek downside protection when buying gold, said Phil Streible, senior mark analyst at RJO Futures.“I’d look at buying some protection like a $1,300 put in gold, and then trying to buy it as close to that 200-day moving average as possible: $1,308 an ounce, to $1,312 an ounce, somewhere in that range. That way you have calculated downside risk if the market does break hard on next week’s jobs number,” Streible told Kitco News. Streible added that if catalysts push gold to the upside, he would expect a break above $1,335 an ounce to $1,340 an ounce would springboard an aggressive move back higher. He noted that these he would implement these trades using June gold futures and June put options. (show less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 GCM has been one of the strongest performing Gold shares, but is still "too cheap" Compare: ===== : -$-Last : change : %-chg. : volumeGCM.t : C$2.68 : + 0.07 : +2.68%: 110,604 GDXJ : $32.51 : - 0.52 : - 1.57% : 9.65 M. GDX - : $22.28 : - 0.45 : - 1.98% : 45.5 M. GLD - : 124.59 : - 0.91 : - 0.91% : 9.59 M. CAD - : $0.779: +.0006: +0.08% : - n/a- GCM.t / Gran Columbian Gold ... 3-years : 10d : GCM's debt restructuring was completed yesterday, 4/30/18. This should clear the way for further improvements in the stock price, since potential stock dilution is much reduced, and the Balance sheet now looks more "normal" Gold-Linked Notes (Unlisted) Outstanding (April 30, 2018) : US$98.0M Currency : U.S. dollars Maturity : April 30, 2024 Interest : 8.25% p.a cash paid monthly Repayment : Amortized quarterly through sale of physical gold deposited to a Gold Trust Account with floor price protection at US$1,250 per ounce of gold Rank and Security : Senior unsecured Other Gold premium upside for investors Change of control provisions Non-callable for first 3 years Guaranteed by certain subsidiaries Gold-Linked Notes FAQ ===== Gran Colombia Gold Announces Closing of US$98 Million Debt Financing and Early Settlement of US$7.3 Million of 2018 Debentures April 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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