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drbubb

Gold Mining Royalty Companies

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RGLD, GROY and other top Gold Royalty co's

RGLD .vs-etc5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / ... (/$59.78 UGL)... w/EMX

vs: FNV: $130.62 (219%), RGLD: $102.25 (171%), NSR.t: $8.60 (14.4%), OR.t: $14.58 (24.4%), EMX.t: $2.73 (4.57%),

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RGLD ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: vs-etc: Last:  $102.25, -20.2% below peak / 12 mo Range: 92.01-129.69

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GROY ... update: Last:  $4.49, -36.6% below peak / 12 mo Range: $3.39 - $7.08

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RGLD to UGL, 5yr: "Normal Range": 1.60 to 2.00, Last: 1.71

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GROY to UGL, since start.  11mo: "Normal Range": 7.50 to 9.50, Last: 7.51

UjJJiY4.png

 

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EMX.t ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: vs-etc: Last:  $2.73, -41.9% below peak / 12 mo Range: $2.45-$4.70

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EMX.t to UGL, 5yr

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Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (TSE) looks cheap vs Gold (UGL)

OR.t vs UGL ... from Jan.2017: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: C$14.05 - 0.46, -3.15 / UGL: $50 =

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===

Ratio: OR.t / UGL :

xx

Argument by Chart

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> Presentation: https://osiskogr.com/app/uploads/2022/01/Osisko-Gold-Royalties-January-FINAL.pdf

 

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EB Tucker's Metalla & Nova Royalties

Chart since: Oct.2020: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: $3.01 -0.12, / $37.10 -$1.33, -3.1%

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===

NOVR-toCopper:

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NOVR-toFCX:

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MTA-toUGL

xx

Podcast:  This is why speculation will end in 2022 - E.B. Tucker

Kitco News - Jan 3, 2022

(Kitco News) - E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News the outlook for stocks, gold, and silver in 2022.

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-01-03/This-is-why-speculation-will-end-in-2022-E-B-Tucker.html

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SPROTT TAKES ROYALTY on Goliath

TML.t. update; C$0.70

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TREASURY METALS ANNOUNCES US$20 MILLION ROYALTY FINANCING TO FUND GOLIATH GOLD COMPLEX TO CONSTRUCTION DECISION

Treasury Metals Inc. has entered into a royalty agreement with an affiliate of Sprott Resource Streaming and Royalty Corp. (SRSR) in relation to the company's 100-per-cent-owned Goliath gold complex (GGC), which comprises the Goliath, Goldlund and Miller gold projects. Under the terms of the agreement, SRSR will pay Treasury consideration of $20-million (U.S.) for a 2.2-per-cent net smelter return royalty covering all minerals produced from the GGC for the life of the project. Further details are set out herein under "royalty transaction details." The financing is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to close toward the end of March, 2022. The proceeds from the financing will be used to advance the project to a construction decision, including all economic studies, permitting, consultations, and corporate G&A (general and administrative) costs.

Highlights:

  • $20-million (U.S.) financing through the sale of a royalty to an affiliate of Sprott Resource Streaming and Royalty Corp. (SRSR) expected to finance the completion of economic studies, permitting and community engagement, including corporate G&A. Summary details of the royalty include:
    • A $20-million (U.S.) upfront payment;
    • 2.2 per cent of net smelter return revenue of all minerals produced on the properties comprising the Goliath gold complex;
    • Option, solely at the discretion of the company, to repurchase 50 per cent of the royalty until Dec. 31, 2028;
    • Automatic reduction of the royalty rate by 50 per cent upon the achievement of 1.5 million ounces of gold production;
    • The right for SRSR to participate for up to 40 per cent or $40-million (U.S.) in future metals streaming or royalty financing undertaken by the company;
  • The financing is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to close toward the end of March, 2022.

Jeremy Wyeth, president and chief executive officer, commented: "We are extremely pleased to be announcing this transaction today and excited to bring on Sprott as a partner to help us move the Goliath gold complex ...      > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!TML-3207259/C/TML

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RATIO: GROY ($4.02) to RGLD ($120): 3.39%

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Four Royalty co's... from 9.1.21: 6mo: 1yr / ELE.t: C$1.64, GROY: $4.06, RGLD: $126.13 ... w/EMX, 4.12.22

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Three Royalty companies... from 9.1.21: 6mo: 1yr / ELE.t: C$1.64, GROY: $4.06, RGLD: $126.13 ... w/EMX

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Three Gold Royalty co's:  ELE / Elemental, GROY / Gold Royalties, RGLD / Royal Gold.  

The idea here is to buy at the bottom of the Box and sell at the top of the box.  I sold GROY earlier, and am now lightening up on RGLD.    So yesterday, I bought some GROY again near $4.  It was driven down mainly because of its recent bid for ELE.  This will be the 4th acquisition that GROY made since its listing. They are trying to build critical mass, so they are one of the sizeable "most own" gold royalty co's, alongside FNV, and RGLD.   (FNV never seems to get cheap enough for me.)

 

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GROY's ELE acquisition, from Jan. 11

0.27 of a Gold Royalty common share : $4.06 x 1.263= C$ 5.128 x 0.27= C$1.38 vs. ELE: C$1.64;  84% ?

Plans for a Mutually Beneficial Acquisition - Or was it?

VANCOUVER, BCJan. 31, 2022 /PRNewswire/ - Gold Royalty Corp. (NYSE American: GROY) ("Gold Royalty", or the "Company") is pleased to provide an update on its growth plans, and its proposed acquisition of Elemental Royalties Corp. (TSXV: ELE) ("Elemental"). Continuing its trajectory of disciplined expansion and growth over the past year, Gold Royalty has offered to acquire all of the issued and outstanding Elemental common shares (the "Elemental Shares") for consideration of 0.27 of a Gold Royalty common share (a "Gold Royalty Share") per Elemental Share (the "Offer") as set forth in Gold Royalty's Offer and Circular dated January 11, 2022 (the "Offer and Circular").

"The acquisition of Elemental will be the fourth corporate transaction undertaken by Gold Royalty within the last 12 months, representing an unprecedented pace of accretive growth and resulting in a diverse and well-balanced portfolio of high-quality precious metal royalty assets with peer-leading growth. Since our oversubscribed US$90 million initial public offering in March 2021, we have successfully acquired Ely Gold Royalties, Abitibi Royalties and Golden Valley. Additionally, we declared our inaugural dividend...       >

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MERGER ARGUMENTs , Pro and Con. Biggest problem: Bid is too low, near 90%

ELE / ELEMF, vs. GROY etc. ... update: YTD:

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FORMULA:

3.02.2022: ELE= C$1.64, OTCQX: ELEMF, Last: US$1.29 / GROY $4.06 x27%= $1.096  ( 85.0%)

3.18.2022: ELE= C$1.51, OTCQX: ELEMF, Last: US$1.20 / GROY $4.12 x27%= $1.112  ( 92.7%)

From ELE:  REJECT

the Inadequate All-Share Hostile Takeover Bid by Gold Royalty Corp.

The Elemental Board recommends that Shareholders REJECT the Hostile Bid because Shareholders are likely to
benefit more if Elemental remains independent or is sold at a higher price to another third-party. The Elemental Board
firmly believes that the value attributed to Elemental under the Hostile Bid is wholly inadequate. To REJECT the
Hostile Bid, Shareholders should simply TAKE NO ACTION.

Reason 1: The Hostile Bid would give Shareholders significantly less equity in the combined company than is
justified by Elemental’s significant revenue contribution

If the Hostile Bid is successful, Shareholders would only own approximately 12% of the equity in the combined
company, despite Elemental contributing...

62% - 97% of Trailing 12 months Revenues.

Reason 2: The Hostile Bid undervalues Elemental and is not compelling
The Hostile Bid undervalues Elemental and is not compelling based on either the implied price of the Share
Consideration offered (C$1.52 using the US$4.49 price of Gold Royalty Shares at the close of trading on January 21,
2022) or the Gold Royalty-promoted nominal price (C$1.78 using the US$5.15 price of Gold Royalty Shares at the
close of trading on December 17, 2021...

The market price of the Gold Royalty Shares has declined since the announcement of the Hostile Bid and, as a result,
the implied price of the Share Consideration offered under the Hostile Bid is much lower than the nominal price.
Neither the implied price nor the nominal price are compelling

GROY's High BURN Rate vs Revenues

Additionally, during the year ended September 30, 2021, Elemental’s revenue was approximately 2.2 times ABOVE
its corporate costs, demonstrating Elemental’s focus on maximizing net cash flows and earnings to Shareholders even
while adhering to a high-growth strategy, while comparatively Gold Royalty’s pro forma revenues were approximately
2.6 times BELOW its corporate costs. Gold Royalty’s expenses in the quarter ended September 30, 2021, on an
annualized basis, equate to an unsustainable approximate $21 milli

Read More Here.

Problems with ELE arguments:

1) the stock did nothing but go down after ELE's listing, so obviously investors didn't see the near-term potential ELE claims, or have faith in management. Price is Truth. Investors didn't respect ELE, management couldn't right the ship,  so GROY swooped in at bottom. Who is the smart one??

2. Bigger/better royalties like FNV and WPM significantly outperformed over the same time period. Fact.

3. Management owns only 15% - better for them to keep the steady paycheck coming, than out looking for jobs.

4. The GROY argument that bigger is better is valid. Even if they are 'stealing' ELE shareholders will do better if GROY becomes a 'go to' name - ELE has zero chance of getting big institutional money at this size. None. Nada. Zippo.

ANSWERS:

GROY answers back with a few punches of its own.

https://www.goldroyalty.com/_resources/presentations/investor-presentation.pdf?v=0.1

===

February 7, 2022

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Ready to play catch-up?

RGLD, fnv. leads GROY, NSR.t ... update: w/Emx,Ele / RGLD: $137.16 , GROY: $4.12, 3.00%,  NSR.t: $9.20, 6.70%

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w/Emx,Ele / RGLD: $137.16 , GROY: $4.12, ELE.t: $1.51, 1.10%,  EMX.t: $2.89, 2.11%

xx

Gold Royalty co's:  GROY and NSR have lagged RGLD and FNV. 

I am long 3 out of 4 of these. And am doing some profit-taking on RGLD. Example: Selling out of money calls on RGLD, to buy GROY, or NSR.t, which both pay dividends.

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Goldmining increases Gold Royalty stake to 15.1%
[2022-04-12 20:15]
Goldmining Inc. acquired 250,000 shares of Gold Royalty Corp. on April 12, 2022. It now owns 20.25 million Gold Royalty shares or 15.1 per cent of those outstanding. more...

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On 3/3/2022 at 1:48 PM, drbubb said:

MERGER ARGUMENTs , Pro and Con. Biggest problem: Bid is too low, near 90% of Mkt.price

ELE / ELEMF, vs. GROY etc. ... update: YTD:

FORMULA:

3.02.2022: ELE= C$1.64, OTCQX: ELEMF, Last: US$1.29 / GROY $4.06 x27%= $1.096  ( 85.0%)

3.18.2022: ELE= C$1.51, OTCQX: ELEMF, Last: US$1.20 / GROY $4.12 x27%= $1.112  ( 92.7%)

4.12.2022: ELE= C$1.60, OTCQX: ELEMF, Last: US$1.24 / GROY $4.04 x27%= $1.091  ( 88.0%)

                                ========== > ELEMF, Last: US$1.24 / GROY $4.59 x27%= $1.240 ( 100.%) needed

From ELE:  REJECT : February 7, 2022

ELE / ELEMF, vs. GROY... Oct'20: Apr'21: C$1.60, US$1.24, vs. $4.04 x27%= $1.091 / OFFER is 0.27 GROY shares

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update: Apr'21: C$1.60, US$1.24, vs. $4.04 x27%= $1.091

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STILL ALIVE: Tender Your Shares by 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time), on April 27, 2022.

  • The results of Elemental’s “strategic review” have been underwhelming. Elemental’s only recent acquisition is a gold stream on the Ming Copper Mine, a relatively small scale and high-cost operation that has a history of failing to meet expected project milestones.
  • Elemental is raising capital at a lower price than Gold Royalty’s offer. Elemental recently announced a financing at C$1.51 per share – significantly below the unaffected C$1.78 value of Gold Royalty’s offer at announcement, which Elemental’s Board had characterized as undervalued at the time.
  • Elemental’s high-cost debt remains an issue. Elemental is spending US$2.5 million per year to service a US$25 million credit facility with an interest rate of approximately 10%. This hinders Elemental’s strategic flexibility and ability to return cash flow to shareholders.

> https://www.goldroyalty.com/news/news-releases/gold-royalty-corp-issues-letter-to-elemental-royalties-shareholders-and-enters-into-commitment-letter-with-bank-of-montreal-and-cibc

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GROY's # don't add up... anymore

Elemental calls Gold Royalty bid valuation "misleading"

The financing involved the issuance of Elemental shares at a price of $1.51 per share. This represented a premium of approximately 15 per cent to the value of the hostile bid, which was $1.31 based on the price of Gold Royalty shares at the close of trading on march 16, 2022, the last close prior to the announcement of the Financing.

On March 30, 2022, Gold Royalty falsely contended that the financing was at a price below the value of the hostile bid. This claim is supported only by Gold Royalty citing the inflated and illusory unaffected price under the hostile bid of $1.78 per Elemental share offered by Gold Royalty approximately three months earlier, when Gold Royalty announced its hostile bid intention on Dec. 20, 2021.

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!ELE-3234741/C/ELE

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Gold Royalty Co's ... YTD: / GROY: $3.60 -0.13, -3.49% / RGLD: $130.48 -0.88, -0.67% (= Ratio: 2.76%)

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More :

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BOUGHT some GROY, dragged down possibly by the extension of merger bid for ELE / Elemental Royalties

GROY to-RGLD Ratio:

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MERGER BID: NSR > SSL x1.21

SSL: 8.87 -0.69 -7.2%  ... Merger value:  8.87 x 1.21= $10.73.  I wonder if SSL management anticipated a 7%+ drop in its stock?

NSR.v / Nomad Royalty ... update / Last: NSR: 10.25 +0.66 + 6.9% (O: x, H: x, L: x)

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NOMAD ROYALTY ANNOUNCES FRIENDLY ACQUISITION BY SANDSTORM GOLD

Canada’s Sandstorm Gold (NYSE, TSX: SAND)...said on Monday it had agreed to buy Nomad Royalty in an all-share transaction valued at $590 million (C$755m) ...  shareholders of Nomad will receive 1.21 common shares of Sandstorm for each Nomad share held.

The consideration implies a value of approximately $11.57 (Canadian) per Nomad share based on the closing price of the Sandstorm shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange on April 29, 2022, and represents a premium of 21 per cent to the closing price of the Nomad shares as at the same date, and a premium of 34 per cent on the 20-day volume-weighted average price of the Nomad shares and Sandstorm shares on the TSX for the period ending on April 29, 2022.

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!NSR-3244097/C/NSR

SSL vs. UGL ... update : C$8.87 / $60.71 =

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Ratio: 14.6%

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===

 

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GROY / Gold Royalties Corp ... update / Last: $3.5550.1% off 12 mo.H ($7.08)

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Ratio: $3.55 / $60 = 5.85%

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RANGE of Performance:  GROY to RGLD

Royalty Cos... update: 10d / $3.55 / $132.58= xx% .  w/Sand, w/ELE, w/MTA, w/NOVR :

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w/MTA : Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd, / Last: C$7.17

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w/NOVR : Nova Royalty Corp. / Last: C$2.33

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==

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Revisiting RGLD - Long term charts

Since 1995 : Last: $108

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Since xx

yy

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