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SIL vs. SLV, AGQ : Silver Miners vs. Silver etfs


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UPDATED : late June 2022

Silver Shares  to start new rally? ... from SIL-$27.00, was 31.50 Low

SIL-etc... : 10yr: 5yr: from Mar.2018Mar.2020 : 10d/. SIL: $27.37 / SLV: $19.37 = r-141.3% /AGQ: $26.47 = r-103.4%,

Old, early May/ SIL: $33.93 / SLV: $21.28 = r-159.4%, / AGQ: $32.48 = r-104.5%,

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from Mar.2018Mar.2020 : 10d/ SIL: $27.37 /

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Ratio: AGQ / SIL : R- 153%

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Three Silver stocks ... 3yr : from Jan.2020fr.t10d : GPR.v, FR.t, CDE

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In edit (after wed.) : FR.t-6mo : AG-6mo : AG-wed.close: $5.92 -0.01 / day range: $5.85 - 6.06

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  • 1 month later...

Looking at Coeur Mining again.

Have traded in & out with profits in prior months

CDE vs. SIL : 10 Days / Has pulled back more than SIL in recent days

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CDE / Coeur Mining... 6mo : 2yr : 4yr / Last: $4.68

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Yahoo Statistics @ 3/16/19
Sym : Price: MktCap: EntVal: Ebitda : EV/eb.: Earns : PER-: Div. : Yield : BkVal : P/BV :
AG- : $6.64: $1.30b : $1.46B: $52.3M: r27.86 : (1.11) : N/a- : $0.00: N/a- : $3.07: 216% :
CDE : $4.68: $951M : $1.34B: $123.M: r10.84 : (0.26): N/a- : $0.00: N/a- : $4.19: 112% :
Paas: 13.29: $2.78b : $1.82B: $222M : r: 8.21 : $0.07: 198. : $0.14 : 1.09%: $9.82 : 135%;
AUY : $2.55: $2.42b : $4.29b: $614M: r 6.99 : (0.30): N/a- : $0.00: N/a- : $4.20:   61% :
AEM : 43.69: $10.2b : $11.8B: $784M : r15.80 : (1.40): N/a- : $0.44 : 1.01%: 19.41: 225%:
Gold : 13.01: $22.7b : $29.4B: $3.06b: r:9.60 :  (1.32): N/a- : $0.16 : 1.22%: $6.50: 200%:
NEM : 33.15: $17.7b : $20.2B: $2.74b : r: 7.36 : $0.64: 51.8 : $0.56 : 1.68%: 19.70 : 168%:
Gcm.t $3.70: $17.7b : $179M: $95.7M : r:2.41 : (0.29): N/a-: $0.00 : 0.00%: $5.40:  69%:

Presentation : https://www.coeur.com/_resources/presentations/2019-02-24-BMO-GMM.pdf

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  • 3 weeks later...

Coeur Mining started at buy with $6.25 stock price target at B. Riley FBR MarketWatch

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  • 3 weeks later...

"LOW" broken? maybe not

- I am still looking for a SIL & GDXJ Low near where the market finished last night

SIL/Silver Stock etf  -etc ... chart : Last: $24.37 -1.14% / SLV: $14.08 +0.14% = Ratio: 1.731

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Ratio: SIL- to SLV: 173.1%

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Make Silver shares great again - with MAG & other Silver stocks

MAG Silver .... update / Last: $10.17 +0.84, +9.00%

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SIL / etf for Silver shares ... update / Last: $24.76 +$0.72, +3.00%  / SLV: $14.10 +0.71%

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Ratio: SIL -to-SLV : xx

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Close-Up

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
On 4/28/2019 at 5:32 AM, drbubb said:

Make Silver shares great again - with MAG & other Silver stocks

MAG Silver .... update / Last: $10.17 +0.84, +9.00%

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SIL / etf for Silver shares ... update / Last: $24.76 +$0.72, +3.00%  / SLV: $14.10 +0.71%

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Ratio: SIL -to-SLV : xx

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Close-Up

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Your chart channels for Mag Silver and Sil etf seem to have broken out now Dr B.

Considering Great Panther again which I ditched for a few cent gain, it’s still barely moved!?

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  • 2 months later...
  • 5 weeks later...

Update - a nice rally, at last

CDE / Coeur Mining ... 3yr / Last:  $6.79 - 0.45, -6.22%

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==

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On 7/13/2018 at 4:52 PM, drbubb said:

GPR / Great Panther ... all : fr.2016 :

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Market Cap at $ =

UPDATE - much cheaper now

GPR.v ... update / Last: C$0.58 +0.04, +7.41%

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GPR is the cheapest of three - based on historic prices

GPR + two: FR.t, CDE ... update : C$0.58, C$14.14, US$7.08

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  • 2 months later...

SOLD my $10 Puts on silver stock CDE yesterday, for more than a Double

CDE / Coeur Mining ... 1 year / Last: $4.94, down for 12 mo. High of $8.29

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===

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MIND the CYCLE ... in SILVER

SLV is the etf for Silver (which closed at $16.46) / $15.53 = 106% -> about $1.00 difference

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Anyone see a cycle here? (haha)

Silver, & silver shares ... still in an uptrend / update ::  SIL ($27.23) /$15.53 = R-175%

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Ratio: 175%= SIL ($27.23) /$15.53 ... was recently above 200%

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==

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MIND THE GAPS !

I will show you one of my favorite gaps right now - and then explain it...

First, I need to SET THE TABLE...

As you might expect, there is a high degree of correlation between GLD (gold), & TLT (bonds). And even more with LTPZ (Tip Bonds).  It is clear in this chart

GLD -vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update : $140, -5.00, -3.65%, vs: $140 - 0.0%, $100 - 0.0%

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Notice that... on Friday, there was a BIG DROP (-3.65%) in GOLD, but not in TLT or LTPZ. 

this is unusual. and the GAP you see there may be telling us something important.  The drop in GLD may be temporary, &/or bond prices maybe be set to drop

Q: Perhaps bond prices are finalizing their rise which will lead to a top that won't be revisited for some time to come

Sure it could go either way... or maybe the GAP will not fade.

Let me tell you how I will play this "narrowing", ie my expectation that the Ratio of GLD-to-LTPZ will narrow

Q: Will you go long GLD short LTPZ outright or via options?

Valid ideas, (though LTPZ is much less liquid than GLD or TLT.)  But I will do something else...

SILVER!  Or actually, SLV, which is the etf for Silver.  I have added it to the chart / update: SLV & GLD, vs: TLT & LTPZ

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In fact, on Friday near the NY close, I bought $15 Calls on SLV: End-Mar. expiry at $0,77, and Mid-April at $0.91.

These are in-the-money Calls with a strike price below the Friday close of $15.53

Previously, back in mid-Dec., : I bought SLV Jan. $15.50 Calls at $0.48
A few weeks later, in three trades, I sold them at an average of $1.59 - for a 231% gain
(This is recorded in Real-time comments on my 2020 Tips thread😞

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/14/2020 at 7:26 AM, drbubb said:

The drop is Gold & Silver stocks friday was one of the sharpest falls I have ever seen

SIL vs GDX ... All Data -W:  D :

SIL, Silver Miners Etf : $18.61 -3.84 -17.10% vs YrH: $33.75: -44.9%
GDX, Gold Miners Etf: $19.00 -3.31 -14.84% vs YrH: $31.84: -40.3%
Gdxj, Jr Gold Miners : $22.17 -2.50 -10.13% vs YrH: $46.42: -52.2%
GLD, SPRD Gold Etf : 143.28 -4.51 - 3.05% vs YrH: 159.17: -10.0%
SLV, Silver Trust Etf : $13.69 -0.93 - 6.36%  vs YrH: $18.35: -25.4%
===
Notice the difference !

haha / Silver stocks now UP on the day! / 20.1359
    Change:+1.5259

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  • 6 months later...

SILVER vs Silver shares

Junior Silver shares (like Aftermath & Defiance) run with "the fast boy" AGQ, 3x Bull etf on Silver

AAG.v & DEF.v vs. AGQ ($58.31) ... YTD: 2yr: 1yr: 10d/ AAG.v: C$0.88 (1.51% Agq), DEF.v: $0.61 (1.05% Agq),

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Ratio: AAG.v (C$0.88) to AGQ ($58.31): AAG.v: 1.51%

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Ratio: DEF.v (C$0.61) to AGQ ($58.31): DEF.v: 1.05%

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==

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  • 1 year later...

Happy Surprise ! Takeover Bid. (note: 40k x 1.7%= 680sh) from Jan.2021: $0.35, MAG: C$21.25 > $17.02

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GTR closed at C$0.35.  Last time I looked at GTR was about $0.25.  What happened? 

MAG Silver made a takeover Bid, where each GTR share will get about 0.017 shares of MAG: C$21.25 x 0.017= C$0.361

MAG Silver ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: US$17.02 = C$ 21.25 x1.7%= $0.361 GTR eqv.

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MAG-vs-AGQ : from May-2018AGG: Jun-2021: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / MAG: $17.02 / AGQ: $40.65 = r-XX%

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Ratio:  MAG to AGQ

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MAG SILVER TO ACQUIRE GATLING EXPLORATION

Mag Silver Corp. has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement with Gatling Exploration Inc., pursuant to which Mag Silver will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Gatling in an all-share transaction. Each Gatling shareholder will be entitled to receive 0.01702627 of a common share of Mag Silver for each share of Gatling held.

The consideration values Gatling at approximately 40 cents per share, representing a premium of approximately 47.4 per cent to Gatling shareholders, based on the five-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of each company as of the close of trading on March 10, 2022. Upon completion of the transaction, it is expected that Gatling shareholders will hold approximately 0.79 per cent of Mag Silver shares on an outstanding basis.

About Mag Silver Corp.

Mag Silver is a Canadian development and exploration company focused on becoming a top-tier primary precious metal mining company by exploring and advancing high-grade, district-scale, silver-gold-dominant projects in the Americas. Its principal focus and asset are the Juanicipio project (44 per cent), being developed with Fresnillo PLC (56 per cent), the operator. The project is located in the Fresnillo silver trend in Mexico, the world's premier silver mining camp, where the operator is currently developing an underground mine and constructing a 4,000-tonne-per-day processing plant. Underground mine production of mineralized development material commenced in Q3 2020 and is being processed through adjacent Fresnillo-operated plants. An expanded exploration program is in place targeting multiple highly prospective targets at Juanicipio. Mag Silver is also executing a multiphase exploration program at the 100-per-cent-earn-in Deer Trail project in Utah.

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  • 2 weeks later...

SLV / Silver support is now near $22, AGQ: $36

SLV / iShares Silver Trust... 4yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: $22.70 ... PSLV ($8.71)/SLV : 38.4%

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For the same period, SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF...  4yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: $36.95

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RATIO: SIL-$36.95 / SLV-$22.70 = r-1.63

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RATIO: SIL-$36.95 / AGQ-$37.69 = 98.1%

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SLV / Silver vs DBA / Agri ... Oct.2011 : 5yr : 2yr / +SIL : 6mo-w/SIL:  4.3.22: SLV: $22.70 / DBA: $22.01

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w/ XLE :

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  • 4 weeks later...

Silver Shares  to start new rally? ... from SIL-$31.50 Low

SIL-etc... : 10yr: 5yr: from Mar.2018Mar.2020 : 10d/ SIL: $33.93 / SLV: $21.28 = r-159.4%, / AGQ: $32.48 = r-104.5%,

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from Mar.2018Mar.2020 : 10d/ SIL: $33.93 /

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Ratio: AGQ / SIL : R- 153%

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Ratio: SIL / SLV: SIL: $33.93 / SLV: $21.28 = r-159.4%,

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Ratio: SIL / SLV: SIL: $33.93 / AGQ: $32.48 = r-104.5%

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===

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  • 1 month later...

RATIO: 141.3% : SIL to SLV.

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==

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  • 4 months later...

SIL vs. UGL. From Nov'17: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd: 10d. $25.14, $29.95 /$45.69= 55.0%

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Nov'17: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd:

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Ratio, SLV: $17.78 / $45.69 (UGL)= 38.9%. , was 37.9% (18.99/ 50.11)

Ratio: SIL-toUGL: $25.14 /$45.69= 55.0%

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SLV : 17.74
Mo. : strike: Mid. :  Pct
Dec.: $18C: 0.77: 4.3% : $20P: 2.45: 13.8%
=== : $20C: 0.26: 1.5% : $22P: 4.30: 24.2%
Jan.: $18C: 1.04: 5.9% : $20P: 2.60: 14.7%
=== : $20C: 0.45: 2.5% : $22P: 4.38: 24.7%

SIL : 25.14
Mo. : strike: Mid. :  Pct. : strike: Mid. :  Pct. :
Dec.: $25C: 1.93: 7.7% : $28P: 3.55: 14.1%
=== : $29C: 0.60: 2.4%: $29P: 4.25: 16.9%
Jan.: $25C: 2.45: 9.7% : $28P: 4.05: 16.1%
=== : $29C: 1.03: 4.1% : $29P: 4.75: 18.9%

RATIO: SIL-toSLV : 141.7%
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===

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  • 1 month later...

GOLD versus SILVER - Silver has more extreme swings

Is now at apparent "Fair Value" with Gold ($1777.5) and Silver ($23.11): Ratio 76.9x

GLD ($165.35) vs SLV ($21.24) : since 2010: 1/2018: 2yr: Ytd: 10d :  Ratio= 7.78x

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===

GLD ($165.35) vs SLV ($21.24) :  Ratio= 7.78x

Gold to Silver Ratio

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