Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2018 Trading - v.117

Recommended Posts

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

(on Sept.19th - pg.3 of my SEP DIARY, I wrote): THIS IS...

 "A very logical & Classic Set-up for a Bottom in Gold stocks" - IT WAS !

GDX/ VanEck Vectors Gold Miners  ... update : $18.43 +0.11 +0.60%, GDXJ: $27.46, SIL: $24.12, /SLV: $13.31= R1.81

ZzotVjo.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But SPY has not kept up with the Slide in IWM & SOXX

SPY -vs- IWM, SOXX ... 10d : SPY-10d :

qurFF7s.gif

: SPY-10d :

z56EpK1.gif

The Gap down on Tue. got retraced, but that merely carved out a channel, which has "allowed" a larger drop on Wed

Timeline

DD: -SPY- + chg. : Day: low-high: -Vol.- :- VIX-/ InTM$ Nov5: Nov9: Ratio : J285p: 285c: Strad= ITM$ + 2xC.= Value
10: 278.30 - 0.00: 277.88-286.91 215.M: 00.00/ 11.70: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-% : 00.00: $0.00: 00.00= $6.60+ ...
11: 272.17 - 6.13: 270.36-278.90 275.M: 00.00/ 17.83: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-% : 00.00: $4.30: 00.00= 12.83+$8.60= 21.43
12: 275.95 +3.78: 272.37-277.09 183.M: 21.31/ 14.05: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-% : 00.00: $4.85: 00.00= $9.05+$9.70= 18.75
15: 274.40 - 1.55: 274.30-277.04 102.M: 15.60/ 15.60: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-% : 00.00: $4.20: 00.00= 10.60+$8.40= 19.00
16: 280.40 +6.00: 276.60-280.82: 118.M: 17.62/ $9.60: $9.65: $9.77: 98.8% 10.30: $6.00: 16.30= $4.60+12.00= 16.60
17: 280.45 +0.05: 277.56-281.15: 111.M: 17.70/ $9.55: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-%: 10.25: $5.75: 16.00= $4.55+11.50= 16.05
18: 276.40 - 4.05: 274.97-280.07: 123.M: 20.06/ 13.60: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-%: 12.85: $4.45: 17.30= $8.60+$8.90= 17.50
19: 276.25 - 0.15: 275.47-279.30: 121.M: 19.89/ 13.75: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-%: 13.00: $4.45: 17.45= $8.75+$8.90= 17.65
22: 275.01 - 1.24: 274.41-277.36: 75.3M: 19.67/ 14.99: 00.00: 00.00: 99.-%: 13.60: $3.80: 17.40= $9.99+$7.60= 22.27
23: 273.61 - 1.40: 268.61-274.81: 131.M: 20.71/ 16.39: 16.40: 16.47: 99.6%: 14.26: $3.57: 17.83= 11.39+$7.14= 18.53
24: 265.32 - 8.29: 264.70-273.76: 152.M: 25.23/ 24.68: 24.70: 24.73: 99.9%: 21.10: $1.90: 23.00= 19.68+$3.80= 23.48
25: 270.08 +4.76: 266.23-271.81: 138.M: 24.22/ 19.92: =====
26: 265.33 - 4.75: 262.29-271.00: 184.M: 25.22/ 24.67: 10.48: 24.73: 99.9%: 20.39: $1.96: 22.35= 19.67+$3.92=23.59
29: 263.86 - 1.47: 259.85-270.25: 147.M: 24.70/ 26.14: $8.32: 26.16 : ==== : 22.62: $1.51: 24.13= 21.14+$3.02=24.16
30: 267.77 +3.91: 263.12-268.12: 143.M: 20.00/ 22.23: 11.04: 22.35 : ==== : 19.41: $2.32: 21.73= 17.23+$4.64=21.87
DD: -SPY-- + chg. : Day: low-high : -Vol.- : - VIX- / InTM$: 260c : Nov.9: Ratio : J285p: 285c: Strad.= ITM$ + 2xC.= Value

==: 257-Calls---------: 258-Calls-------- : 260-Calls-------- : 265-Calls--------:
26: 00.00-00.00=00.00: 11.85-12.13=11.99: 10.42-10.54=10.48: $6.97-$7.11=$7.05:
FRI-------- : MON--------
263.0= $8.35 > 266= $8.50
260.0= 10.48 > 12.30
 =====

Red D, Leo: > http://reddragonleo.com/2018/10/29/es-morning-update-october-29th-2018/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May take some profits on my Friday Calls if the Opening GAP UP is strong enough.

Why not?

This is a celebration - maybe pre-mature

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DBA vs. SLV /(Agri.etf vs. Silver etf) ... update fr. 2.14.2017 : fr. 5.14.2015 : fr. 5.24.2013 : w/Eur :

9pAJbti.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stocks, Yuan Tumble On Report US To Announce Tariffs On All China Imports If Trump-Xi Meeting Fails \

published at 2:28 but (seems like) the big boys knew it before way before then.

/ 2 /

ANOTHER Dramatic Day on Wall Street... DOW swings 900 points...

S&P 500 ends just shy of correction territory

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DEJA_VU?

I recall this strange pattern from early 2016

SIL dragged down (again) by weak Stocks (SPY)

Even though GLD and DBA have begun a recovery

SPY- vs: SIL, GLD, DBA ... update : CNY :

z2x9sT1.gif

Another big slingshot set-up, if Stocks rally (?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No Tears, for Jeff Bezos!

AMZN /Amazon ... update : Last $1539, -24.9% off year's high ($2050)

3bXdsyq.png
Bezos Loses $19 BILLION!
AMAZON shares cratering...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stocks breaking downtrend on 10d chart?

IWM -vs: SPY, SOXX ... update :

4LbcVBc.gif

With SPY: 267.77 +3.91: +1.48%

The Nov16th SPY-260c that I bought at $8.60, closed at $11.04.

I sold Half on Monday at $12.25, when SPY had a Gap-up opening

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Junior Miners still in Downtrend

GDXJ -vs: GCM.t, MUX ... update

d4SnEwW.gif

/ 2 /

Weaker Oil prices have helped to stall the Uranium Rally

U.t vs: URA, CCO.T & USO/Oil ... update

SldDuUI.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big Gap Up coming? More than +1% higher?

Market shrugs of FB revenue miss

Facebook results: Investors appear to be shrugging off disappointing revenue and user growth numbers from Facebook (FB).

The social media company reported Tuesday that third quarter revenue jumped 33% to $13.73 billion, less than expected. User growth figures also missed estimates.
But it wasn't all bad news: Earnings per share of $1.76 topped Wall Street's estimates, and Facebook stock was up 4% before the bell on Wednesday.
    Facebook estimated that over 2.6 billion people now use Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram or Messenger each month. More than 2 billion people use at least one of these Facebook-owned apps each day on average.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Bull Market may be killed by FAANG's

    SPY -vs: AMZN, FB, GOOG ... update :

    IktNvpC.gif

    ‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says ‘damage done to the stock market’ is much, much worse’ than anyone is talking about

    MarketWatch

    Prominent market technician Ralph Acampora says the stock market is in bad shape and it’s worse than many on Wall Street investors appreciate.

    A pioneer in the field of chart-based trading, Acampora said the technical damage that has resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.97% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.09% erasing all of their gains for 2018, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +2.01% falling into correction territory—usually characterized as a decline of at least 10% from a recent peak—will take months to repair.

    Acampora cited a break down of so-called FANG stocks—a quartet of technology and internet-related companies that include Facebook Inc. FB, +3.81% Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +4.42% Netflix Inc. NFLX, +5.59% and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +3.91% —as the clearest sign that the worm has turned on the bull market.

    On Monday, those names, which have been significant catalysts for market sentiment and price moves, shed a combined $120 billion in market value. On top of that, Amazon became the most recent of that group to close in bear-market territory, defined as drop of at least 20% from a recent peak.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Successful Options trading today

    SPY Nov.$260 Calls ... update : $275p : Just sold Half of Calls at $14.20

    VYdC6Wy.gif

    Still had half of my SPY Nov.16th $260C, acquired last week at $8.60

    After the opening Gap up, I decided to "hedge" them, and bought Nov. $275P at $6.68.

    This locked in a minimum of $15.

    There was just a surge in underlying SPY to a new high of Day.

    In that, I sold out the $260C at $14.20, locking in a profit of $5.60 - nearly pays for the $275P I bought today.

    Today is the last day of October, meaning some window dressing. The buyers may not be there tomorrow.

    And the GAP is lurking there below... sucking.

    Reminds me of this poem somehow:

     

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    MIND THE GAP(s) ! ... spy-etc

    apfWzKi.gif

    Index : Prev. : Open +%change: -Low  > -High-  : Close + $Chg. +%chg.: %Op
    SPY  : 267.77: 270.65 +1.08% : 270.12 > 273.22 : 270.63 +2.86, +1.07%: 99%
    IWM : 149.73: 151.26 +1.02% : 150.03 > 151.86 : 150.03 +0.30, +0.20%: 20%
    Soxx : 160.92: 163.42 +3.37% : 161.52 > 164.22 : 162.96 +2.04, +1.27%: 38%
    260c: $11.20: $12.85 +14.7% : $12.85 > $14.61 : $ 12.28 +1.08, +9.64%: 66%
    275p:  $ 9.10:  $ 7.02 - 23.9% ::  $ 5.23 >  $ 7.33 :   $ 7.03 - 2.07, - 23.7%: 99%
    FB -- : 146.22: 155.00 +6.00% : 148.96 > 156.40 : 151.79 +5.57, +3.81%: 64%
    Goog: 1036.2: 1059.8 +2.28% : 1057.0 > 1091.9 : 1076.8 +40.56, +3.91%: 171%
    amzn: 1530.4: 1570.0 +2.59% : 1565.1 > 1623.1 : 1598.1 +67.59, +4.42%: 171%
    =====

    SPY held 99% of its opening GAP up, while bellwether IWM retraced 80% of its opening gap.
    SPY $260c: I missed the High ($14.61), but selling at $14.20, beat the close ($12.16-12.41: $12.28)

    I often miss opportunities when I am asleep. (haha)

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    DOLLAR PEAKING, Gold Bottoming ?

    Malaysian Ringgit / MYR

    P8My4DK.gif

    MYR vs THB ... update :

    MKUzq3E.gif

    ==

    Gold etc / GLD

    Kl3E4UN.gif

    ==

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

     2 mo : 3mo +KF : 2018 w.SIL - Clearly they move together / / FRES+ 10d : KrFres

    odeqqL3.gif

    ==

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    GOLD rallies (+$17) as EUR and Chinese Currency Jump

    EUR -vs: GLD & CNY etc ... update :

    v7NOtlZ.gif

    / 1 /

    China to issue central bank bills in Hong Kong to boost renminbi
    China Economic Review-12 hours ago

    The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) aims to strengthen the country’s sliding currency by issuing Rmb 20 billion ($2.9 billion) in central bank bills in Hong Kong’s offshore renminbi market, according to the Financial Times.

    Selling central bank bills will help to raise borrowing costs for investors looking to short the currency in anticipation that its decline will continue. The currency recently hit its weakest level against the dollar in 10 years.

    The plan was first announced in late September, but a new release on Wednesday details the timing and size of the issuance. On November 7, the PBOC will issue Rmb 10 billion in 91-day bills and a further Rmb 10 billion in one-year bills.

    Although the bank has issued government bonds in Hong Kong before, this will be the first time it has sold central bank bills in the special administrative territory.

    / 2 /

    ABS-CBN News · 2 days ago

    MANILA -- Thirteen Philippine banks, together with Bank of China, launched on Tuesday a trading community to make transacting using the Chinese currency cheaper and easier.

    Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez said the Philippine Renminbi Trading Community would help lessen frictions for direct trade, investment and tourism.

    With invoices using yuan, Dominguez said firms could save up to 3 percent of the transaction value. Establishing a similar platform for the Japanese yen is the next step, he said.

    / 3 /

    Three Reasons Why the Yuan Won't Breach 7 Per US Dollar

    Bloomberg-30 Oct 2018
    I tentatively suggest that China's RMB policy is now setting the tone for EM currencies, while the Fed is dictating how the G-10 currencies trade.".

    (2010) Stephen King: As currency wars wind up, will quick thrills call the

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Yes, 

    But thursday was a good day for SLV: + 0.42, + 3.1%

    Apple down big in after hours, like more than -4%

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    PSEI INDEX may be "Building Cause, to Go Lower"

    PSEI has broken the (330 wk) MA which is generally supportive, and now it is working off the Oversold position,
    staying near the bottom of the uptrend channel.  Unless it can rally up to above 7,500 soon,
    it is likely to break the Upchannel near 6900 and slide lower.

    PSEI / Philippines Stock Index ... update : 7,140.29 + 124.23

    t9WYYjY.gif

    The flock of bellwether stocks would also head lower, if the PSEI breaks down

    PSEI -vs-Bellwether stocks ... update

    Two to especially watch: BPI: Last P82.15 +2.65 / SMPH: Last: P33.80 +0.05

    yCaEAXB.gif

    => see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/21030-stocks-chat-top-stockbrokers-in-manila-area/?page=2&tab=comments#comment-361633

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    After a higher opening, SOXX seems to be suggesting a DOWN day in stock indices

    (there's a GAP to be filled, eh?)

    SOXX vs: SPY, IWM : 10d : SPY-lead : SPY : IWM : faag's :

    ptB7bsM.gif

    In edit ... Update/ Lower: SPY 10d : Nov.275p 5d : Puts are back to my breakeven price of $6.70-ish

    yV9Aa4O.gif

    FAAG ... update :

    43uCpL1.gif

    ==

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    From Tony C's site, a comment on Bond Yields

    30 year Treasury back at the highs again today (4 year high).

    30_tsy-vs-spx.jpg?w=640

    Same as 4 weeks ago, stocks are taking it on the chin.
    For sure, the stock market has more problems aside from higher rates.
    But it is just one more load for an overpriced market to carry.
    *** and for the folks who say
    higher rates are not a problem for stocks, but they just can’t go up too fast“,
    That’s like a bad stock picker shorting a “ten bagger growth stock
    But, but, but … it went up too fast
    Price is always king, Nothing else.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    Sign in to follow this  

    ×