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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

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TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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NYXBT : 3yr : 3yr-377d : 1yr : 6mo :

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02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50) =6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750 :11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/31: 0.6817 x$7091- +200 =4834 -050:$7041Jun(+403):4800/(+603+12.6%):
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
05/10: 0.6937 x$9365(+000) =6497 +268:$9,533Jun(+003):6613/(+003+0.05%):+0000:$9,633+568,-.000: 9.90
07/22: 0.6932 x$7700(+000) =5337 +050:$7,750Sep(+000):5372/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$7,750+050,-.000: 9.38
09/09: 0.6842 x$6185(+000) =4204 -040:$6,145Sep(+000):4204/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$6,135-050,-.009: 9.02
09/30: 0.6940 x$6570(+000) =4460 -040:$6,530Dec(+000):4532/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$6,538-032,-.000: 8.98
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$6,530= $1469: 3063: H:4762 /$1,699/.6940= 2448 = 8.98 to New High

CRYPTO---- : BTC &us$ - 09/30: 09/09- : 07/22- : 05/10- :
Bitcoin-- : US-Dollars  @6,570: 6,180: @7,737: @9,330:
Cardano-- : .00001338 : $0.080 : $0.075 : $0.180: $0.330 :
Bitc. cash : 0.0838---- : $0,550 : $0,470.: $0,840.: $1,761 :
Ethereum-: 0.0353---- : $ 232. : $  191. : $  472. :  $ 787. :
Litecoin--- : 0.00951---- : $62.5 : $ 52.6 : $  86.0  :  $ 169. :
Ripple------ : 0.0000924 : $0.600: $ 0.274: $ 0.46.: $ 0.85 :
TRON------- : 0.0000035: $0.020: $ 0.019: $ 0.03.:
EOS Token: 0.0008847:   $ 5.80.: $ 4.66.: $ 8.45.:
HIVE.c------------------9/07: C$60.0 : C$0.68 : C$ 0.81 : C$1.120 > Last 6/5
ATLEF / Atlas Cloud--- : $0.110 : $ 0.165 :  $ 0.120 : $0.225 >
RIOT---------------------------- : $3.650 : $ 4.300 :  $ 5.900 : $7.800 >

Crypto miners

ATLEF vs Hive ...from 1.1.2018 :HIVE 9/7/2018 (vs.7/20): C$0.81 (0.81): RIOT: $5.90 (5.90), ATLEF: $0.12 (0.12)

KgRM2uM.gif

==

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Oil is oversold

USO, the Oil etf, shows three waves to the downside, and is in bounce territory

USO / United States Oil Fund LP ... update : Last: $13.06 (21.1% WTI) : -0.12

6v81TWM.gif

Best buy might come after a bounce and retest, since the "laser beam" down move could cut through support

zLd24Za.png

Strong support may not be hit until about $58

Ratio : USO to-WTI

xOXFtr3.png

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FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 :

5tNbQWo.gif

FB / Facebook & GOOG / Alphabet ... fr. 1.2016 : Last: FB: $151.5 / GOOG: $1093 = r-13.86%  (prev. 13.66%, 13.76%)

pVY084J.gif

==

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Stocks see 2% post-election rally... to near resistance

SPX ... update : spx-d : 10d :  2,813.89 +58.44, 2.12%

YhzCZz6.gif

: spx-d :

iOPL8HH.gif

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OIL & Energy-related Shares

XLE / etf for Energy shares ... update :

HkiYV35.png

OIH / xx

51e0KXx.png

Ratio: XLE to-OIH

oi1eLxY.png

Ratio: XLE to-WTI

oUgwdqr.png

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Oil staging a recovery. Annoyingly Brent is gaining much more than wti, and it was Brent I was originally interested in.

Looks as though Brent leads wti

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Who would Buy Oil now?

hqdefault.jpg

Contrarians who don't like Cramer's market calls.

Personally, I would wait for the "laser beam" down channel to break...

> see: USO/ US Oil : update : $12.84 : -0.22, -1.68% / WTI: $60.67 -$1.00, -1.62% = r-21.2%

... and then maybe await a bounce and buy the Dip afterwards > It's Safer to do that !

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MARKET COMMENTARY sources

#1/ My favorite: the brilliant E-Wave analyst : Tony-C (free) :

ninjashade314 says:

Hi Tony, a silent reader here but really appreciate your updates. After this Major 2 ends then we will be onto the most bullish phase of all: Major 3 of Primary III? Then this bear market should be the last major one for possibly years right? To me it seems that “To infinity and beyond” times is just around the corner…

  • eff7f88db00d7228d55fd86d5319cc26?s=40&d=tony caldaro says:

    Correct the beginning of Major 3 after this Major 2 ends.
    Bullish for years? Possible. But most likely small bear markets along the way as well.

    His E-Wave Count : source :

    C9muIgq.png

    #2 / Also Try : redDrLeo :

    " Well, the bulls put on a stellar rally yesterday in relief that the midterms are over with. It's back to original target zone of 2800-2850 on the SPX, and we are hit the lower zone yesterday. Today is looking like a small pullback day as the futures are down a little here before the open. There's no way to know the exact high for this rally up but time-wise it should finish by the end of this week and rollover next week. I'm looking to add more shorts today or tomorrow as this is likely the last time we'll see this level for quite awhile. "

  • Following CHARTS might go with Leo's comment: SPY-MT : SPY-10d : SPY-soxx10d : SPYvsFAG :

    IQXpfgu.gif

    (added in edit, after close) : SPY-versus: Fb, Amzn, Goog : SPYvsFAG : Note the relative weakness in FAG

    CP55vnA.gif

    ==

    I bought Nov.30th 280puts at $3.24

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Kitco articles

How Do Election Results Affect Gold? Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz
Gold Awaits The Election Peter Hug
====

(Bull's comment): Tuesday’s U.S. elections took place and the results were as expected; the House turned blue and Republicans added a couple of seats in the Senate. Gold had a very active night as well with a big rally on fear, sell-off on relief and now a rally towards the overnight highs on relief.

How do these results affect the price of gold? The simple answer is they don’t. Asset classes may react to the news, but they eventually go back to the patterns they were trading. This time will not be different.

Gold is still in the consolidation pattern, looking to break out to the upside. Gold is making another attempt to break above the $1,240 level, which we expect sooner than later. This morning’s weaker dollar may be enough to push gold through resistance; however, the bigger picture is gold breaks out, weak dollar or not.

. . . The technical picture remains neutral unless gold can close above the $1,337 level, which it has attempted twice. Support rests at $1,220 and given overnight dollar action, we would be inclined to suggest a retest of this level, but think the market is likely to remain bid ahead of tomorrow’s election, with support around the $1,227 area. Should the Democrats surprise, we would expect pressure on the dollar and a move higher in the metals complex. Republican control of the both the House and Senate should create selling pressure.

. . . Technicals: Gold is testing into key support at 1219.6-1221 this morning. It has held the 100-day moving average at 1224.2 on a closing basis but is now below here. It will be crucial to see how Gold reacts to this support level and overall its recovery path from November 1st. The metal traded to a lower high and failed at 1233.5-1238.3; it appears that seasonals are keeping it depressed and we are cautious in the near term though remain upbeat in the longer picture.

 

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  • The World Gold Council (WGC) reported this week that central banks bought around $5.8 billion worth of gold in the third quarter of this year, marking the biggest buying spree since 2015. Central banks largely buy gold in an effort to diversify their reserves. Since the yellow metal is a finite asset, as opposed to fiat currency, it can help economies stabilize amid times of economic turbulence. Hungary and Poland emerged recently as big gold buyers in an effort to shift away from the dollar-denominated financial system and brace for a potential currency risk as global inflation picks up.
  • The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) surveyed attendees at its annual gathering in Boston and results show that gold is forecast to climb 26 percent in the next year, up to $1,532 an ounce. According to George Milling-Stanley, head of global strategy at State Street Global Advisors, gold’s next significant resistance level is $1,350 an ounce and prices may test that level within six to 12 months. We’re now entering the historically strongest eight months for gold demand, with festivals in India and China, as well as Christmas and Valentine’s Day celebrations, writes Bloomberg. Perth Mint CEO Richard Hayes said in an interview at the LBMA last week that the recent stock selloff has reignited caution in many investors. Hayes also said that “if the midterms go badly for Trump, you’ll see a return to gold” because “a lot of Trump’s true believers are precious metals buyers.”

(By contrast, SPDR has been lightening up on its GOLD Holdings):

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :  11/08  :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1225.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 : 115.78 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.624 : R1.622 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00: +01.0%: 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23: 755est: 759.06 : 755.23 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $17.15 : $16.38 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.63 : $19.38 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $28.06 : $27.54 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $24.11 : $23.62 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.731 : r1.740 : R1.740 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.86 : $13.56 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.760 : 14.420 :

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Investor's Business Daily · 2 hours ago

Why Trump has been complaining about The Fed

oLM7Oz3.jpg

 

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Having fun... with the Hang Lung "Stock market predictor indicator"

I stumbled across this "indicator" by accident...

Hang Lung Properties (HK:101) trades in Hong Kong, and closes BEFORE New York stocks open.

Recently, it has been giving reasonably accurate predictions of how IWM / Russell 2000 etf will trade later

HK-101 vs IWM and SOXX ... HIS-10d : +HSI+UKX :

GuA7Fqy.gif

I have some ideas about why this is working, but I want to follow it for more days before talking about those theories

(added in Edit)

Longer term, the highs and lows in HLP lined up with some of the IWM turning points, but not all

HK-101 versus IWM and SOXX ... : weekly chart :

i8pcWqo.gif

==

The Magnitude of moves was massively different.  And there was one big MISS on the Low in the middle

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Headline : 

Nov 8 4:55pm:

The boom-to-bust oil market has rapidly gone from spiking to crashing. 

"It's so amazing how fast sentiment shifts," said Michael Tran, director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "The economic slowdown fears are winning the narrative."
And despite the recent Wall Street rebound, crude has continued to tumble. That's because oil bulls were disappointed by the Trump administration's decision to grant temporary waivers that allow India, China and other countries to continue to buy oil from Iran, the world's fifth-biggest producer.
President Donald Trump said the move was designed to ease the impact of sanctions on Iran, which took effect on Monday.
"We're going to let some of the oil go out to these countries that really do need it, because I don't want to drive the oil prices up to $100 or $150 a barrel, which could happen very easily," Trump said during a press conference on Wednesday.
Trump argued that prices have "come down very substantially" recently "because of me."
Yet the oil plunge is also due to Saudi Arabia and frackers in Texas ramping up production. US oil output, led by the Permian Basin in West Texas, raced above 11 million barrels per day in August for the first time ever. The United States recently surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.
The flood of production has helped lift oil stockpiles. Commercial oil inventories in the United States soared by 5.8 million barrels last week and are now 3% above the five-year average,according to the federal government.
However, RBC's Tran said physical demand for crude remains solid.
"It's not that bad out there. It doesn't warrant a 20% decline," he said.

More

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Having fun... with the Hang Lung "Stock market predictor indicator"...

hmm...

HK-101 had a bad day: -2.00%. So did HSI: -2.39%

And US stocks are down in overnight trading:

NDX100: -1.47%, SPX: -0.77%

Feeling good, since I bought some end Nov. SPY $280 puts last night.

I paid a little over 1% for options near At-the-Money, so I have some good gearing in play

 

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Yeah.

I have great run from time-to-time/  Having one now.

That article on Oil has a bullish conclusion:

""The risks are skewed to the upside through the end of the year," said Tran.

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New... & Surprisingly Popular

Wild tales.  How Real?  

Above Majestic: Implications of a Secret Space Program - Official Trailer

==

Above Majestic: Sneak Peek- Ancient History and Atomic Weapons - David Wilcock

INTERVIEW - with Jimmy Church : Ep. 946 FADE to BLACK Jimmy Church w/ David Wilcock : Above Majestic : LIVE

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Globalizing Thievery. Interview with Catherine Austin Fitts. The Richard Dolan Show, Nov. 8, 2018.

 

 

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S&P 500 nails the range top (2,817), stalls at well-defined resistance

MarketWatch

MW-GY241_201811_20181109094208_NS.gif?uu

U.S. stocks are firmly lower early Friday, pressured after an economic report signaling hotter-than-expected wholesale price inflation, the strongest monthly increase in six years.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 has more or less nailed its range top (2,817) — topping this week within two points — and Friday’s early downturn likely punctuates a failed retest.

 

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Bitcoin ... 5mo :

a3zBYO7.png

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Hedge Funds Brace For A November 15 Bloodbath

A few weeks ago, we reported that even when the market was hitting all time highs ahead of the historic October bloodbath, hedge fund investors were growing increasingly nervous, and rushed to redeem $15 billion from the space in September, the largest single monthly outflow in years, bringing year-to-date net flows to flat after being stubbornly in the green for much of the year despite what has been another deplorable year for hedge funds.

This was not the first time either: over the last three years, investors had removed over $100 billion from the industry, but performance gains had offset these losses... at least until last month.

And then October came which was not only a "bloodbath across almost every strategy", but was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years.

. . .

Which is why just one week ago,  we warned that what may be the most underappreciated delayed risk to the market is a surge in redemption requests as LPs and investors got their monthly performance reports, showing the worst month in years, and in kneejerk response faxing in their request to have most or all of their money pulled out now before the rout accelerated.

. . . Only this time few will be changing their minds, and the total redemption will be a bloodbath, because if history is any guide, "the rush for the exits will be swift and accelerate."
. . . Why does this matter? Because with hedge funds expecting a flood of redemption requests on November 15 - with few outperforming there is little reason for even the marquee names to be spared - and with cash levels in the single digits, the question becomes who sells first ahead of everyone else, to satisfy the cash calls.

This is also the warning raised by Nomura's Charlie McElligott, who reminds us this morning that while systematic, vol-targeting, CTA and other quant funds may have ended their selling (and in the case of Trend CTAs are again "max long"), a key point raised by JPM's Marko Kolanovic to justify his bullish thesis, the slow money outflows are only now just beginning as the redemptions requests come in:

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