DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

[drbubb]

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

: : :

: :: :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

(on Sept.19th - pg.3 of my SEP DIARY, I wrote): THIS IS...

 "A very logical & Classic Set-up for a Bottom in Gold stocks" - IT WAS ! OR WAS IT??

GDX/ VanEck Vectors Gold Miners  ... update : $18.43 +0.11 +0.60%, GDXJ: $27.46, SIL: $24.12, /SLV: $13.31= R1.81

. update :

. GDXJ :

[hector]

Don't want to read too much into the situation, but we have large gaps on cable and oil.

[drbubb]

These are Volatile Times.

(I just got a short email from EMS/ Elliottwave Market Service , with this):

EXCERPT:

Despite increased price volatility after coming off recent price lows, the major US stock indexes remain in technically confirmed bearish downtrends (as do the majority of major international markets).  What our unique methodology tell us, in this case, is that the recent price volatility and any associated price rallies in the short term are almost certainly counter-trend retracements in now continuing and larger bearish declines - with much lower prices ahead.

As our long term subscribers are aware, we have been labeling these prices patterns on an almost daily basis for the past ten years and our directional timing only changes when the Elliott Wave labeling of price and the objective and proprietary Trend Signal Analytics align.

.elliottwaveanalytics.com

[hector]

To me however, its still possible we make new highs on the SPX at least.

Why write off that possibility?

[drbubb]

Accurate E-wave thinks we will see a continuing correct back down to SPX 2500-2600 or maybe lower,

and then a very powerful Wave up, which should bring new Highs

[drbubb]

WEEKLY Data - Needs update

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :  11/09 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1208.6 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 : 114.48 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 271.89 : 277.76 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2723.1 : 2781.0 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 220.8%: 230.1% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $67.56: $68.50 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $63.14 : $60.19 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-19.53 : r-20.08 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $3.280 : $3.720 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.810 : $2.680 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 887.75 : 886.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 508.75 : 502.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 371.25 : 369.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 192.30 : 188.45 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.77 : $17.31 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.24% : r9.19% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R3.750 : R3.802 : R3.957 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.50 : $96.90 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 112.00 : 113.35 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1208.6 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.624 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 759.06 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $17.15 : $16.28 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.63 : $19.04 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $28.06 : $27.13 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $24.11 : $23.35 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.731 : r1.740 : r1.??
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.86 : $13.32 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.760 : 14.140 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $24.27 : $24.44 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $40.82 : $39.80 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2676.5 : 2598.9 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7140.3 : 6968.8 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.38 : $27.12 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 154.00 : 154.08 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1713 : 0.1760 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 : $6,322 : $6, ??
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  9/28  :  10/26 :  11/02 :  11/09 :

[drbubb]

mo : 3mo +KF : 2018 w.SIL - Clearly they move together / / FRES+ 10d : KrFres

[drbubb]

Tucker gives some compelling answers to - WHY DID TRUMP WIN?

Tucker Carlson at the Nixon Library

 

Trump's Job is to ASK the Questions, we need to Ask, but are afraid to ask

[drbubb]

WEAK opening for stocks - will that Bearish Hedge Fund forecast dominate?

SPY etc ... 10 d : FAG : 276.16 - 1.60 / Nov16-275p : Nov30-280p : Nov23-260c : TonyC :

: spy : Targeting : 268-270, possibly today

Hedgey favorites, like AAPL, & other FAANG stocks are getting pounded,

in anticipation of big redemptions this week

[drbubb]

OT#1: Option trading series, no.1

" I Bought Nov30th SPY $280puts, paying $3.24. The closed a bit higher at $3.43 "

Wow, just sold 25% of my SPY $280-puts at HOD- $7.95, vs. $3.24 cost a few days ago

That's a nice +145% return.

I am targeting $270 level to Sell or Hedge the rest

(in edit)

I sold another 25% at $8.60 going into the close - that's +165% return

The rest (50%) are now "FREE" (I have locked in a certain profit on the original package)

Luck or skill? (bit of both, probably)

: Nov30-280p : / Nov16-275p : Nov23-260c : TonyC :

I got morning High on the first trade, and then later when the  market closed weak,

my $8.60 trade was within 10 cents of the ultimate HOD, $8.70.

[drbubb]

A PICTURE of Fed Tightening

aahmichael says:

November 12, 2018 at 3:09 pm

The effect of liquidity drain is cumulative. It’s like swimming against the current. At first you can power through it, but eventually it wins. Next QT occurs on 11/15. Approximately $28bn in Treasuries will be removed on that day. A total $50bn of Treasuries/MBS will be drained by the end of November.

"10. Last one... haters will say it's fake."

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2018/11/11/8-Charts-on-Quantitative-Tightening … $SPX $FED

[drbubb]

REPORTs

0: don't forget that old one about the Hedgy redemptions

/ 1 /

Equities Plunge Led By Apple and Goldman - Stock Option Expiration Friday

/ 2 /

Is a reversal of the carry trade behind the rise of the US Dollar?

 

 

[drbubb]

Chart Of The Week: Crude Oil Vs. Energy Stocks - A Big Gap https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2018/11/13/Chart-Of-The-Week-Crude-Oil-Vs-Energy-Stocks---A-Big-Gap … $XLE $OIL $USO

[drbubb]

Peddling furiously (& profitably!) on the Options bike, I'm not done yet!

SPY-vs-SOXX etc ... 10d :

The above chart may help me in targeting the next trade.

I haven't forgotten that gap from last week

[drbubb]

KITCO

U.S. Dollar Strength Is Unsustainable - Broadway Gold Kitco NewsNov 12

Bitcoin Mining Takes Three Times More Energy Than Gold Mining — Study Kitco NewsNov 12

Gold Analysts Are Watching U.S. Dollar, Global Macro Data Kitco NewsNov 12

Gold, Silver Prices Hit Multi-Week Lows Amid Strong ... Kitco NewsNov 12

Dollar Hits 16-Month High, Yen Boosted By Risk-Off Sentiment Reuters

[drbubb]

OPENING OVERVIEW

London (CNN Business)

1. Tech rout: Tech stocks were hit hard Tuesday amid concerns about slowing demand for Apple iPhones.

Apple suppliers in Asia found themselves under pressure. Japan Display was down 9.5%, Hon Hai Precision Industry (HNHPD), known as Foxconn, dropped 3% and Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) lost 2.5%

The slump was triggered by a 5% slide in Apple (AAPL) shares on Monday after supplier Lumentum (LITE) cut its earnings and sales forecast because of weak demand. JPMorgan also cut its target price on Apple's stock.

That caused widespread pain. Amazon (AMZN) shed 4.5% on Monday and Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 5%. Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped over 2%.

The Dow closed the session down 2.3%. The S&P 500 shed 2% and the Nasdaq slumped 2.8%

 

2. Amazon decides: Amazon has chosen New York City and Northern Virginia to split duty as its second headquarters, according to the Wall Street Journal. The official announcement could come as early as Tuesday.

The development projects will bring the cities a huge infusion of jobs and tax revenue, but are almost certain to draw fire from critics concerned about their impact on infrastructure and property values.

 

3. Global market overview: US stock futures were pointing higher.

European markets opened in positive territory, while stocks in Asia were mixed.

US crude futures dropped 2% to trade at $58.70 per barrel. Crude is on track for 12 consecutive days of losses, the longest slide since oil futures trading was introduced on the NYMEX in March 1983. The historic slump knocked oil into a bear market — barely a month after it hit four-year highs.

> https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/13/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

[drbubb]

INSIGHT into Many Issues / Including FB, "social emotion"... Man-Hating & the hidden dangers of Soy

Hillary Raimo - The Alienated Human, Cultural Demonization of Men, & The Future

S y n o p s i s

Scientists recently acknowledged that the human race faces extinction as male sperm count declines. To that, add the hidden dangers of soy, which, contrary to what you are being told, is not a health food, does not prevent disease and has not even been proven safe. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory studies link soy to malnutrition, digestive problems, thyroid dysfunction, cognitive decline, reproductive disorders, even heart disease and cancer. What about this new trend of man hate brought to you by the new feminisits? This has created the mgtow or men going their own way, and we have discussed this here before. What about the disappearance of gentlemen. What about shivalry, courtesy, honor, being realistic, pollite, gallant, respectful, noble, and decent? Those are the qualities my parents instilled dupon me. What has changed and who is behind the destruction of these values and the society we used to know? And by the way, did you know that 5g network uses the same emf waves as pentagon crowd control system?

[hector]

> human race faces extinction

Unlikely. Tells you all you need to know about 'scientists'. Or reporters.

Glad to see mgtow getting recognition, although we don't care whether others follow in our footsteps, the more cucks the better.

[hector]

Wow. All I can say is I'm glad I wasn't desperate enough to buy oil on margin.

[drbubb]

WTI Crude

XLE

OIH / Oil Service Sector

xx

READ the guys in TonyC's comments section:

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/weekend-update-677/#comments

Some real CL / Headaches

Beware those Laser Beam moves!  They can go on a long time.

Tight range in a Upchannel or Downchannel means active and persistent orders in One direction

[hector]

Haha. Got to feel for mr. justinob2018. I have been there but many years ago. You can't go full retard in this year's market.

[jerpy]

21 minutes ago, hector said:

Haha. Got to feel for mr. justinob2018. I have been there but many years ago. You can't go full retard in this year's market.

Really! Sounds like a 16 year old or wind up attention seeker, not convinced either way. Young enough to learn and build again, dumb enough to make the same mistakes.

Margin trading at that age....hmm, much to learn.

[drbubb]

OIH / Oil Services

: all-data : all-Log :

[drbubb]

Stocks opened with a Gap higher - but I am still expecting a move down... towards SPY-270

[hector]

Bitcoin is finished

Getting mah popcorn..