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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

GOP counter-plan to Beat Dem's chaos

Freedom Caucus Wants Conservative Bulldog Jim Jordan to be Ranking Member of Judiciary

— Which Would be Badass — to Stop Democrats’ Likely Impeachment Efforts

Two things are true about the incoming Congress: The House Judiciary Committee will be ground zero in the fight over impeachment and House Republicans remain fractured.

Per a new Politico report, the House Freedom Caucus thinks they can address both at once.

Here is the pitch: Soon-to-be Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California makes Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, ranking member of Judiciary. A bulldog in committee, the cantankerous conservative Jordan hopes to rein in the impeachment ambitions of incoming Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., who is eyeing both Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump.

Meanwhile Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., the current chairman of the Freedom Caucus, is making a play to become ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

. . . The pair would make the most of it. They understand how to make the most of a bully pulpit. They aren’t afraid of the camera. They can make cross examinations in committee go viral. The next two years would be a nonstop infomercial for why the Freedom Caucus should be in charge the next time Republicans take control of Congress.

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"The Female Jordan Peterson" ?
THIS was a great speech, and really needed saying
The Diversity Delusion | Heather Mac Donald
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE-_weLRLK4
To protestors:  "ARE YOU KIDDING ME? you are the most privileged group in history!"

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In my opinion I think crude has formed a temporary bottom. There is the OPEC meeting on the 6th Dec where they are bound to reduce output. DrB do you think the laser beam still makes it too dangerous for a quick play? I would be looking to target the 56-57 area.

Might be worth a punt on a correction to around 50.5.

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OIL: A Better Bet for bounce now

USO - US Crude etf ... 1yr :

nbR1fbF.gif

Certainly it is a better bet now, for a bounce - maybe just a short term trade

+ three gaps.  Usually that exhausts a move

+ selling volume seems to be drying up

But we are still in the "laser-like" downchannel, so be careful.

And rally may be shortilved, and followed by a retest of the Lows or the last gap

 

 

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Hmm, salient points. Its true that its still within the laser beam.

It seems to have caught a bid this afternoon so a bit too risky for my liking while its parked there.

I haven't been doing well this month so I'll just wait this one out, and save the capital for other opportunities when they become available.

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You  might have to be amazingly nimble to make money on such a trade

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Hang Lung Co's (HLG & HLP) have had a decent bounce

So I let some go

HK10 / HLG ... 2yr : 1yr : HK$21.70 / HLP: 2yr : 1yr: $15.84

46hmCuk.gif

Effectively, by selling some now at a profit, I am collecting some of the dividends early.

If the stock drops back down, I will buyback what I sold

Here's

HK-87001 ... update :

N56Sj4g.gif

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Thoughts on crypto slide? Buying now has got to make money over a 5 year horizon, but its always tempting to try to time bottoms.

Livermore did say the first and last eighths of a move were the most expensive... he advocated buying on new highs. Not something I do too regularly.

EDIT: does feel like there's room below for it to trade at, so not buying at these levels

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" Buying now has got to make money over a 5 year horizon "

Risk / reward may be attractive now, given the huge potential upside (just getting back to old highs).

But I dont think you can rule out the demise of BTC, & replacement by another Crypto.

I will probably wait for Jan-Feb timeframe to buy

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But I dont think you can rule out the demise of BTC, & replacement by another Crypto.

Haha, good one! I haven't believed in BTC since 2015 when I took a whacking great loss on it, amid the first arguments on the block size.

My vision is for Ethereum to become the premier blockchain, and this is what I intend to focus on.

Timing-wise could be anytime from now to 2020 for all we know.

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In FX, you often see turns around year end
FXFX : EURO ... & other FX / Gold and SPX in EUR

Since 2010 : w/MA's : since 2014 : updated to July 2018

8jlyTt8.gif

2017-18 :

79TlEuz.gif

This old forecast (in blue) has been pretty amazingly accurate so far ... update

MaWZei9.gif

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Haven't seen a decent rally in the GDX to GLD ratio since early 2016

x7jy3G0.png

2018 Low (0.1526) / High (0.2468) = exact Fibonacci 61.8%

DJ Atlantis - GG Young : > https://sv60.onlinevideoconverter.com/download?file=i8h7j9c2h7f5a0b1

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BOE Predicts House Prices could fall by a third in the case of hard Brexit

BBC: Bank warns no-deal could see UK sink into recession

I am getting fed up with the expression "No one voted for a worse economy" etc. If house prices dropped by 1/3 but wages only came down 15% then many people would benefit. Although I own my bungalow a price drop would make a bigger one that much cheaper. Obviously the over-indebted wouldn't benefit at all.

/ 2 /

London down 1.7% in November alone

The Guardian: UK house prices fall by £5,000 on average, with south sliding fastest

More and more price reductions. I guess sold prices to follow shortly. I loved the estate agent's reduction strategy though :) Good time for cheeky offers.

House prices fell by more than £5,000 on average in November, sliding fastest in Britain’s wealthiest towns as Brexit uncertainty gripped the property market, according to the website Rightmove.

In the largest November drop in prices since 2012, Rightmove said the average price of property coming to the market was down by 1.7%, or £5,222, on the month alone. It said the biggest falls were in London, where the typical asking price fell by £10,793 (a fall of 1.7%) and in the south-east of England, where prices were down £8,647 (2.1%).

The “ripple effect”, where rising prices in London spread around the rest of the country during the boom years, has now reversed, said Rightmove, with falling prices in the capital now spreading across the south.

“Higher-end, former hotspot towns are now among the biggest annual fallers with Rickmansworth (-7.1%), Esher (-6.4%) and Gerrards Cross (-6.0%) now cold spots following price rises of nearly 40% over the seven preceding years,” said Miles Shipside of Rightmove.

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Iron ore prices have collapsed, logging the largest decline in years on Monday.

MBIOI-62-Nov-27-2018-1.jpg

And in the case of lower and higher grades, the largest plunge on record.

According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines tumbled 8.4% to $64.25 a tonne, its largest one-day percentage drop since April 12 last year.

. . . It was an ugly move, driven by reports that Chinese steel mills were offloading existing inventories given a increasingly pessimistic outlook for Chinese steel demand.

. . . Helping to explain the liquidation of existing inventories, profit margins at Chinese steel mills have collapsed over the past month, casting doubt over the outlook for both steel production and, as a consequence, iron ore demand.

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/iron-ore-is-in-free-fall/

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