drbubb Posted December 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H : : : : : :: : 3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img : HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv ========================================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 At Risk... of Lower Profits HK:11 / Hang Seng Bank... All-data : 3yrs : 5yrs : 10 yrs : $177.30 . All-data : z Both Goldman and Citi Say Hong Kong Banks at Risk After Central Bank Money Printing Hong Kong’s banks are staring at a tough year for business, marred by lower demand for loans and a peak in local property prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut the lenders’ loan-growth estimates and target prices on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc. said the banks’ shares may drop as much as 15 percent in 2019. “A cyclical slowdown in loan growth has been happening recently as rates started to rise and macro slowed this year,” Goldman analysts Gurpreet Singh Sahi and Ethan Liu said in the note. “Whether this slowdown follows the recent historical one-to-two years ‘shallow’ pattern or becomes longer and deeper would depend on how the current ‘financial’ cycle in Hong Kong unfolds.” Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5ZW2Dkxct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 The Prelude To A Global Reset? New Lows In Smart Money Flow Index, Yield On Deutsche Bank Coco Bond Explodes, Financial Conditions In The Eurozone Crashed.... Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5ZWHvpnFB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 MUX at or near a Buy point maybe? MUX -to-GDXJ Ratio : 6.14%... MUX ($1.74 -0.01) / GDXJ ($28.33 -0.04) == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 SPX Long Term SHComp - Shanghai Composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Nice laser beam spotted on bitcoin cash right now. No stopping that train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Wave A... of A-B-C Down may be nearly done - then Big Wave 3 up? Tony Caldaro's E-Wave comment: LONG TERM: downtrend probable It seems every time the market has made a low during this downtrend, with positive hourly/daily divergences and a weekly oversold RSI, we expected the downtrend to have ended. The market then rallied for a period of time, only to roll over and make lower lows soon thereafter. Such was nearly the case again on Monday at the recent SPX 2583 low. The medium term Intermediate wave A downtrend continues. Long term not much has changed. Five Intermediate waves up from SPX 1810 to SPX 2941. Int. iii subdivided into five Minor waves. All corrections, alternated with their corresponding wave degrees. An EW normality that has been nearly absent in recent years. With Major wave 1 completed, a Major wave 2 bear market is probably underway. (To be followed by Wave 3 UP, when ir ends - and the Chinese market's downtrend may end first, see panel above.) MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues Short Term . . . Technically a small rally, then decline could setup another hourly positive divergence. The weekly RSI is already sitting at a positive divergence. Maybe the FED will be the catalyst to put in the final low, and get Int. wave B underway. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your options expiration trading! (Note; Wave B up, would be followed by Wave C down) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 TWO for my favorite Thinkers, sharing a stage in a great conversation: Sir Roger Scruton/Dr. Jordan B. Peterson: Apprehending the Transcendent > JBP: The claim that there is nothing but Power, is the justification for seeking Power The willful failure to distinguish between Competence & Tyranny. (It is easier to claim to be a victim than to retool to succeed.) Sir R: The risk of the male predator is there. But our society seems to have lost the ability to CELEBRATE THE NORMAL, that most men and women are not predators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 SPX wave A may end near my tentative Target of 2525-ish (but not gteed) SPX ... 5-yrs : 2yrW : 2yrAlt : 2yr- Norm : 6mo : Last: $2,599.95 -50.59, -1.91% : 2yrAlt : : 2yr- Norm : == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Hedging an SDS position. SDS is a 2X Bear etf on the S&P500 - last: $40.60 ==== Idx: 12/31/17: 06/30/18: H.-10/03 : 12/14/18 vs."High" SPX: $2,673.6: 2,718.4 : 2,925.5 : 2,599.9 - 11.13% VIX : %11.04 : % 16.09 : % 11.61 : %21.63 + 86.3 % SDS: $ 41.05 : $ 32.22 : $ 32.86 : $ 40.60 + 23.55% === (I spoke about this hedging concept recently with "D" at a social event. He's long SDS.) If you expect SDS to "range trade" for several months... / more / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 NEEDS UPDATE WEEKLY Data - RISK OFF! : Stocks down -4.60%, while Gold rise +2.66% ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg : 03/29 : 06/29 : 09/28 : 10/26 : 11/30 : 12/07 : 12/14 : Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1252.6 : 1241.4 : GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 118.09 : 117.06 : SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 263.57 : 260.47 : SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 22760.2 : 2633.1 : 2599.9 : Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2% : 210.2% : 209.4% :XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $64.07 : $62.09 : WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $52.61 : $51.20 : Au/Wt: r-21.4 : r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-23.96 : r-23.81 : r-24.25 : Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $4.488 : $3.827 : Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.760 : $2.760 : Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 916.75 : 900.50 : Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 531.25 : 530.00 : Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 385.50 : 384.75 : CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 184.15 : 180.31 :DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.41 : $17.33 : D/crb: 10.37% : 9.67% : ======: r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.51% : R9.45% : R9.61% : Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 : R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.680 : R3.582 : DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.48 : $97.42 : TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 118.41 : 118.48 : ===== Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1252.6 : 1241.4 : Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.649 : R1.626 : Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 759.73 : 763.56 : WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $16.55 : $18.94 : GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.20 : $20.12 : Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.04 : $27.77 : SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $23.88 : $24.60 : /SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 : R1.730 : R1.739 : R1.795 : SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.73 : $13.70 : Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 : 16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 : 14.640 : PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $26.23 : $25.61 : EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $39.88 : $39.83 : ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2605.9 : 2593.7 : PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7461.1 : 7524.4 : XLF- : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $25.11 : $24.24 : IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 144.02 : 140.61 : F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ===== : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1767 : 0.1744 : 0.1724 : BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 : $3,979 : $3,402 : $3?? ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg : 03/29 : 06/29 : 09/28 : 10/26 : 11/30 : 12/07 : 12/14 : Copper has bottomed... maybe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 OIH is getting close to a possible BUY window, I reckon OIH / VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF ... all-data / Last: $15.66 -0.67, -4.10% Yr.Low: $15.63 Ratio : OIH - to WTI Crude == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 KITCO articles - Gold Waiting for a Fed Pause ? Gold Could "Rally Significantly" On These Catalysts - ...Kitco Video NewsDec 14 ED NOTE Outlook 2019 - Rush to Safety Kitco NewsDec 14 OUTLOOK 2019 Gold In 2019: Fed Pausing Could Mean Everything For Gold === VIDEO : 2019 is shaping up to be a good year for gold if macroeconomic factors line up in place, said Erik Norland, senior economist at the CME. “If we see the labor market continuing to tighten, with unemployment rates falling even further, if we see some upside pressure on inflation, that could be extremely bullish for gold,” Norland told Kitco News. "soft data on housing etc... But the overall yield curve has 75 bp positive slope... a slowdown?" "upside pressure on inflation could be extreme bullish for gold... weaker USD would also be bullish for gold" . . . according to our research -- Bank of America appears to be the most bullish on gold. The bank sees gold prices pushing to $1,400 an ounce next year, stating that investors looking for a commodity to be bullish on should look at gold. The most bearish so far appears to be BNP Paribas as the bank sees gold prices falling below $1,200 next year. . . . The biggest obstacle for gold prices this year was the strong U.S. dollar, which has taken safe-haven attention away from the precious metals. “The stars haven’t really been aligned for gold this year. For most of the year, you had this ongoing U.S. dollar strength playing through. We’ve had bouts of volatility, which I quite like for gold, but the U.S. dollar hasn’t sold off,” Pepperston head of research Chris Weston told Kitco News. But, the good news for gold is that things look very different next year, analysts pointed out, commenting that the U.S. dollar has likely peaked in 2018 and the yellow metal is expected to trade north of the critical $1,300-an-ounce resistance level next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 Danielle DiMartino Booth - $250 Trillion Global Debt Will Not Be Forgiven Willingly, Sharp Decline Early in 2019 Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth says the $250 trillion global debt is going to be a painful and messy problem to resolve. What about a giant global debt forgiveness such as a debt jubilee? DiMartino Booth warns, “I am not so sure something like a debt jubilee, where all countries are supposed to hold hands and sing kumbaya, I don’t know that scenario necessarily unfolds. . . . The debt will not be forgiven willingly.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of Quillintelligence.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/16/2018 at 12:07 PM, drbubb said: SPX wave A may end near my tentative Target of 2525-ish (but not gteed) SPX ... 5-yrs : 2yrW : 2yrAlt : 2yr- Norm : 6mo : Last: $2,599.95 -50.59, -1.91% : 2yr- Norm : Low, Monday: 2,530.54 SPX ... 10-yrs : IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85, 12/31/17 : $152.46 : All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos STOCKS NEED A SANTA!DOW -507 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 SPX close: 2,545.94 -54.01 - 2.08% Tony C said in his weekend wrap-up " We still think the SPX 2577 level should hold. If not SPX 2550. " ( Guest Posts from his Blog ) OddStats @OddStats The S&P 500 set a new trading low for 2018 today. Amazingly, here is every year ever (since inception in 1923) that SPX set a low point for the year in December: 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟴 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟯 𝟭𝟵𝟰𝟭 𝟭𝟵𝟯𝟭 𝟭𝟵𝟯𝟬 In case you're not much of a history buff, those years are: NOW TECH CRASH ENERGY CRASH YEAR WE ENTERED WW2 GREAT DEPRESSION GREAT DEPRESSION Noah J says: December 17, 2018 at 5:50 pm I said this about a month ago and stand by it. Tony will be re-writing his longterm, medium, and short term counts in the near future. That’s why you can never solely rely on EW/OEW. Lots of living through the rear-view mirror. lunker1 says: December 17, 2018 at 3:17 pm SPX hit Feb low 2533 hit 2525 pivot SPX & DOW +D on 60min & Weekly Double +D Weekly NAZ NAZ new low but all FAANGs except AAPL showing RS with a higher low bounce worthy territory Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: December 17, 2018 at 1:24 pm Serious bear here folks,Big boy pants. Only significant support is several hundred SPX handles lower. If it breaks here, “ABC U later” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 WTI closed at $xx USO / US Oil etf ... 10-yrs : Last: $10.45 -0.37:-3.42% / target: $10 maybe ===== Hello Tony, At what price do you see WTI crude oil bottoming before a move to mid 80s? Please advice. Thank you tony caldaro says: December 17, 2018 at 3:15 pm expecting a lower low into January, then upwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 BONDS : who is crazy? Low could already be in place at 111... OR ? TLT : 10-yrs : last: 119.17 , 2.69% / TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) / TYX: 3.114% (YrH: 3.455%) TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: December 17, 2018 at 12:35 pm Hey Phil Did you hear Gundlach laughingly says he tells his friends that 10Treas could hit 6%, and they all tell him he’s crazy? Reply Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: December 17, 2018 at 12:53 pm https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/jeffrey-gundlach-federal-reserve-should-not-raise-interest-rates-december-jay-powell.html fionamargaret says: December 17, 2018 at 1:22 pm …and JNJ which CNBC is discussing…..down to 107… Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: when it rains, it pours. GS, same stuff. Tom Fischer (@TomFischer15) says: Gundlach says 6% in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 POPULIST REVOLUTION w/ Russell Brand vs Candace Owens, Will it go Left or Right? Very worthwhile interview from Russell (once again.) HEATED, thought-provoking, & FUN all at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 EUR versus Gold and Gold shares chart : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 OIL - a bottom may be near High: $76.90 Last: $46.60 Ratio 60.60% Strong Support: $42-42.50, if we get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 I feel vindicated for cutting my loss on oil. In happier news, I'm glad I bought this dip in crypto (Ethereum specifically). There's a real risk the next bull run has started - I put the odds at 30-40%. Also, gold looks like its ready to continue its raging bull market, FOMC could be the catalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 I might wait a few more days on the Cryptos - since year-end Tax Selling may still be underway I did take a position in OIH/ Oil Service, that I will describe later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Gold GLD ... update : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 OIH, Oil Sevice etf - Are we now in a long Term Low buying window? Rationale: made record Low price, Oil is at low of year, & tax selling is driving weak oil svc. shares lower OIH / Oil Service ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mos - 10d /Last: $15.20 -0.31, -2.00% YrL: $15.11 Brent Oil OIH share values have SLID relative to Brent Oil OIH vs OILB (Brent etf) ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yr : 3yr - 10d / Last: $15.20 / $25.15 = R-60.4% In the above chart (since late 2005), it is very RARE to see OIH under 62% of OILB, as now Sym. Last$: %WTI :$-Chg. %Chg. R-WTI: yield: Year-L: Year-H: -Vs.H-: brnt $56.08: 100.% -$2.58, -4.40% 100.%: 0.00% $55.58: $86.74: -35.3% oilb $25.15: 44.8% -$1.12, -4.26% 96.8%: 0.00% $25.15: $37.98: -33.8% WTI: $46.60: 83.1% -$3.60, -7.17% 163.%: 0.00% $46.11: $76.90: -39.4%: USO: $ 9.79: 17.4% -$0.66, -6.32% 144.%: 0.00% $ 9.73: $16.24: -39.7% === OIH: $15.20: 27.1% -$0.31, -2.00% 45.5%: 4.46% $15.11: $29.87: -49.1% SLB: $37.84: 67.5% -$1.21, -3.10% 70.5%: 5.29% $37.67: $80.35: -52.9% HAL: $28.98: 51.7% -$0.11, -0.38% 08.6%: 2.48% $28.17: $57.86: -49.9% HP -: $54.45: 97.1% -$1.92, -3.41% 77.5%: 5.22% $53.66: $75.10: -27.5% bhge: 21.22: 37.8% -$0.40, -1.85% 42.0%: 3.39% $20.81: $37.76: -43.8% TS -: $21.79: 38.9% -$0.04, -0.18% 04.1%: 2.39% $21.66: $40.64: -46.4% === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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