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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2018 Trading - v.119

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Extremely tricky few days around the Christmas break - will be interesting to see where all the pieces end up in 4-5 days time.

Gold extremely encouraging. Not as bullish on the cryptos right now.

== following section was added in edit by DrBubb ==

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif :

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

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The stock market just booked its ugliest Christmas Eve plunge — ever

Dow skids to end down 2.9%; S&P 500 on cusp of bear market

U.S. oil suffers worst 1-day decline in about three months as risk assets get bludgeoned

(WTI -$ $3.06, or 6.7%, to $42.53 )

Oil Service - Bells are Not ringing yet ... OIH etc :

1Yi6s76.gif

The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.71% fell by 2.7% Monday, marking the first session before Christmas that the broad-market benchmark has booked a loss of 1% or greater — ever. That statistic has been confirmed by Dow Jones Market Data, which said the largest decline in the index on the trading day before Christmas was Dec. 23 in 1933.

All three indexes have fallen for four straight sessions. The Nasdaq has skidded 8.7% in that time, while the Dow has lost 8% and the S&P 7.7%. The trio is on track for the ugliest monthly drop since October of 2008, during the heart of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Last week was the worst week of trading since the financial crisis of 2008.

The Nasdaq officially entered bear-market territory on Friday, and has now plunged 23.6% from its record close set Aug. 29. The S&P has slumped 19.8% from its Sept. 20 record close, and the Dow has slid 18.8% from its Oct. 3 record close.

. . . Crude-oil futures on Monday logged their worst one-day drop in about three months and closed at the lowest level in about two years. February West Texas Intermediate CLG9, -6.38% crude oil shed $3.06, or 6.7%, to settle at $42.53 a barrel. That close represents the lowest for WTI since around 2016, and the worst single-session decline for the U.S. oil benchmark since Nov. 23, according to FactSet data. Nagging concerns about global crude output and fears of an economic slowdown internationally have eroded appetite for crude, which has gotten swept up in a broad unraveling of demand for assets perceived as risky.

 

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3 hours ago, hector said:

Extremely tricky few days around the Christmas break - will be interesting to see where all the pieces end up in 4-5 days time.

Gold extremely encouraging. Not as bullish on the cryptos right now.

I do hope that the GLD rally has not gone tp $120 to die there - since it is a resistance level

GLD

https://i.imgur.com/T3JUBdD.gif

A breakout with rising volume, perhaps in the new year would be the most bullish scenario

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Dems cannot see their own shadow(s)... They blame all chaos on Trump

Zen master explains : VIDEO

Dems Accuse Trump Of "Plunging Country Into Chaos," End Of Shutdown "Hard To See"

... the Democrats just couldn't resist kicking sand in the President's face as the majority of Americans tune out for the holiday.

In a joint statement from Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leaders chided Trump for "plunging the country into chaos" by obeying the whims of conservative talk radio hosts, repeatedly lashing out at the Federal Reserve and "firing" the Secretary of Defense.

 
/ 2 /

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Too late for Santa... A big post-Xmas rally in Stocks, lifts my Oil Service stocks by 6-14% in just one day's trading.

OIH etc ... update : Daily from 6.19 :

ZgrHWiU.gif

: Daily from 6.19 :

2B1RDoW.gif

An interesting EXPERIMENTAL PORTFOLIO of Oil Service stocks

I sold a deep in the money PUT on OIH, to finance the purchase of Deep in-the-money Calls on Drillers.

My Out-of-pocket on creating this portfolio was virtually zero,  But It should perfom like a $50K+ Portfolio

My UPSIDE is on the higher beta stocks, while the downside risk I take is on OIH, which may have greater downside protection

Sym./ Price: %change: Opt.Mo.-Stk: $Prem, %stkV = Basis: Gn/Ls: Orig. : Gn/Ls: xQty: Gn/Ls :
Calls: T19.54: $2475
RDC :  $ 9.02: +11.2%: April'19-$6.0C: $3.30* 36.6% = $2.85 +$0.45: $8.25 : +9.33% x25: +1125
MDR : $ 6.78: +6.27%: May'19-$5.0C: $2.60* 38.3% = $2.50 +$0.10: $6.65 : +1.95% x25: +$250
ESV  : $ 3.74: +14.4%: June'19-$2.0C: $1.80, 46.1% = $1.58 +$0.22: $3.58 : +4.45% x50: +1100
Put -: +$5.37: (1665) = $810
OIH  : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665
====
B/ev : $13.95: - 0.22 = +$ 810/3700  x14.17= $52,429

The Overall portfolio is now in profit (+$810), for the first time, and equivalent breakeven on OIH is $13.95

 

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SPX - a beautiful Upturn - right on 987d MA

spx index ... update

9truWj2.gif

Is this 5% rally a trend reversal or bear market rally?

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Surprizing Correlation: SLV/ Silver & Hang Lung properties

"they are not expected to correlate - But they do!"

Chart : All-data : 10-yr 5-yr : from 1/2007 , w/hk10 :

VeqYHkG.gif

Back into a Cyclical upturn?  Is Chinese investment the reason?

artid1339_1912_dollar_trade_front_large_

Trade Dollar, 1912 Great Britain-China, minted in Silver

In history, Silver was more of a monetary factor in China than Gold

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After Wed's Big 8% Gain, Oil needed to do some "backing & filling"

USO / USoil etf - etc ... update :

rMdMQZH.gif

WED : THU

OIH  : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665
USO- : $ 9.90: +6.57%: 143% : WTI.cr : $46.22: 83.7% Br
Brent $55.24: +8.80% /

OILB: $23.77 : 3.90xOIH : 59.6%=OIH/OilB
XLE-: $57.19: +6.22% /brent 103.5% : 4.04xOIH

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GCM Coiled Spring maybe... & ready to move up with many other mining stocks

But gold needs to keep rising, as the Dollar weakens maybe

GCM + MUX.t + CCO.t ... update : C $2.80, 2.52, 15.10

cpj8k9k.gif

==

 

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I added even more HK10 today, shifting funds out of HK3081 / Value Gold, as it jumped recently and opened up a Gap to HK.

I like HK10 because of:

+ the huge discount to NAV

+ the stable & predictable cash flows from first class shopping malls

+ the possibility or probability that China related shares will jump in 2019, if there is a resolution to the (needed) Trade War between the USA & China

HK3081 versus HK10 : fr. 12/20/15 :

ZYuy7M1.gif

#3081: $31.00 sold:  xxxx @ $31.00 = +12/28
HK#10: $20.00 BOT- yyyy @ $20.00 =  - 12/27
HK#10: $19.85 BOT- yyyy @ $19.85 =  - 12/26
=====
HK#10: 12/04- sold zzzz @ $15.78 = $?
HK101: 12/04- sold zzzz @ $21.70 = $?

HSI-in Gold looks like it may have hit a potential Support level just below 20.0 to 1.

2op03Xj.png

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Fresnillo back up to Key Resistance

FRES.L ... update :

INtMLEH.gif

==

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WATCH! SIL may be about to breakout of its downward channel

SIL (just?) needs to follow SLV higher

SIL / etf for Silver shares ... update : 10d , w/jnug-ugld :

mHVbrsB.gif

SIL back up to Key Resistance

SIL ... update :

PRxZ9nH.gif

==

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Gold may end the year at about $1,280. 

Let's see what happens on Monday

GLD / Gold etf ... 10d : w/SLV : Last $1280.4 / $121.08 : ratio: 10.57

VZTSAZ8.gif

Ratio : Gold to-GLD

xx

Silver has recently broken out

SLV / Silver etf ... 6-mos : w/GLD : Last $15.35 / $14.42 : ratio: 106.4%

l2iXANw.gif

==

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According to Kitco...

Mining_1228_2.png

> more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2018-12-28/Top-Mining-Gainers-and-Decliners-in-2018.html

About what about this one, with 200,000 oz+ production?:

Symbol/Mining stock---- : 12/20/17: 12/21/18: change

GCM.t / Gran Columbia-- :  C $1.87  :  C $2.73  : + 46.0%  x 48.2M shs: C$131.6M

TPRFF / Gran Col.in US$  :  $  1.46  :   $   2.03   : + 39.0%  x 48.2M shs: $ 97.8M

GDXJ / JuniorGoldMiners:   $32.72  :    $28.94  :  - 11.6%

CAD   / in uS Dollars---------: x $0.779 :  x $0.735 : - 5.65%

Even after the 2018 Gain, it may be one of the very cheapest Gold miners

Obviously, it is not over $500M MktCap. Maybe it will be someday

LOSER? the biggest Loser was NGD : -73.1%

NGD / Newgold ... update : 6-mo : 3-mo : last $0.7735

moIYuCC.gif

: 6-mo : 3-mo : last $0.7735 : Options : NGD-website : presentations :

dM57YB7.gif

New Gold (NGD) -73% - The Canadian miner struggled with operational challenges at its Rainy River Mine in Ontario. The company cut its forecast production while increasing cost estimates for 2018.

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Sarah Benali  

(Kitco News- It is week 3 of Kitco’s Outlook Invest Like The Experts series, and according to U.S. Global Investors’ CEO Frank Holmes, there are still a lot of potential sectors for investors to gain in 2019 – if they do it the right way. 

However, despite the optimism, Holmes warned that investors should be prepared for a “potential seven-year bear market.”

The 2019 Outlook Experts Series continues so be sure to check back every Friday on Kitco to find out where the experts are looking to invest next year.

PART I: Hold Even More Cash In 2019 - RBC's Gero

PART II: Investors Brace Yourselves, It's Time To Hold Cash - Doug Casey

PART III: Invest The Warren Buffet Way In 2019 Says This Expert

Frank_Holmes.gif
Frank Holmes

Expert: Frank Holmes

Claim to Fame: CEO, U.S. Global Investors,

“I recommend the 10 percent ‘golden rule,’ but also remember to diversify with stocks and bonds, their ratio being dependent on your age and risk tolerance,” Holmes says.

  1. If an average homeowner has disposable income, what percentage do you think they should invest in 2019? And why?

“Emerging markets look attractive as they’re oversold,” he says, adding that these markets will likely “find a bottom when U.S. interest rates peak.”

  1. Where should someone invest in 2019 – which sectors are likely to boom in 2019? 

Diversify with savings and investments, he says.

“Remember to be disciplined in your approach and rebalance annually; maintain a balance between income and growth, with 10 percent in gold,” he adds.

  1. What are the first steps one should take before making any investment?

For Holmes, the most important factor to consider when making a new investment is the “CEO track record.”

“It’s also important to be aware of value traps – buying stocks just because they look cheap. I prefer GARP investing, or growth at a reasonable price, like Warren Buffett.” 

  1. What is the biggest red flag for you when it comes to considering a new investment?

According to Holmes, regulation has pushed more investors towards passive investing.

This, according to Holmes, has significantly, “altered the flow of funds to the cheapest indexes, not IPOs or active management.”

“I think this passive push will create the next bubble,” he adds.  

  1. Will 2019 be the year of the active or passive investor?

“I would say our investment in gold jewelry disruptor, Mene Inc. Its business model has seemed to resonate with consumers and investors alike,” he says.

Mene sells directly to the consumer and prices its merchandise fairly and transparently – based on the changing value of gold.

  1. Looking back, what was the best investment you made in 2018?

“FAANG stocks were definitely a missed opportunity,” he says.

  1. What was one missed opportunity for you in 2018?

One of the biggest surprises for Holmes was the push towards regulation of cryptocurrencies, which he thinks may “crush” the markets.

“The global regulatory G20 strategy to crush the cryptocurrency industry came as a surprise,” he says.

During the summit, G20 leaders announced their intention to develop regulation related to digital currencies in an attempt to fight against money laundering and to counter terrorism financing. The G20 summit took place in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018.

  1. What was the biggest market surprise for you in 2018?

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President Trump: ‘Big Progress Being Made’ in Trade Talks With China

Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well.

If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!

A deal could bring an end to what has been a back-and-forth trade war that has lasted for months.

After campaigning on a platform to end China’s “unfair” trade practices with the U.S., Trump has gone on to tax billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. The U.S. slapped the communist country with a 25 percent punitive tariff on $50 billion worth of their imports in June. The president upped the ante in September, imposing a 10 percent levy on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. 

Trump threatened to go even further, announcing his administration was ready to hike the tariff rate to 25 percent.

However, during a G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina in early December, Trump and Xi reached an agreement, with the Chinese president submitting to a number of concessions in return for Trump agreeing to postpone the tariff hike.

. . . Xi agreed to purchase more agricultural products from U.S. farmers, along with a pledge to buy more industrial and energy products. The Chinese leader also agreed to label the opioid fentanyl as a controlled substance — making any person who sells fentanyl to the U.S. subject to stricter penalties under Chinese law — and pledged to adhere to a number of cybersecurity and property theft concessions.

In return, Trump is postponing the tariff hike for 90 days, giving U.S. and Chinese negotiators time to reach a permanent deal.

(RELATED: China Lashes Out At ‘Global Economic Disruptor’ Trump As Trade War Escalates)

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(For Sparks):

Christmas comes late, if it comes at all 

To the ultimate fools on Ultima Thule

barrow+ak.jpg

Ultima Thule Shines a Puzzling Light As New Horizons Spacecraft Approaches

There's something weird going on with Ultima Thule, the distant object that NASA's New Horizons spacecraft will fly by just 10 days from now.

New Horizons team members don't think the 23-mile-wide (37 kilometers) Ultima is spherical; rather, the available data suggest that it's elongated or is perhaps even composed of two close-orbiting bodies. So, mission scientists were expecting to see a substantial "light curve" from Ultima: significant changes in brightness corresponding to different orientations of the object as it rotates.

But that's not what New Horizons observations in the lead-up to the epic New Year's Day encounter have shown. Instead, Ultima's brightness is relatively constant, like that of a spherical body.

"It's really a puzzle," ...

> https://www.space.com/42824-new-horizons-ultima-thule-mystery.html

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WEEKLY Data - BOUNCE@

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 : 12/28 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 : 1283.0 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 118.72 : 121.06 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 240.70 : 247.75 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2416.6 : 2485.7 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 192.1% : 193.7% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $56.11 : $57.05 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.59 : $45.33 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $13.65 : $14.12 :
OI/Wt:  62.1% : 43.1% : ====== : 36.76% : 35.43%: 34.39% : 31.28%: 36.91%: 29.94%: 31.15% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $3.750 : $3.303 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.670 : $2.680 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 897.75 : 895.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 514.00 : 511.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 378.50 : 375.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 172.13 : 170.97 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.00 : $16.97 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.88% : R9.93% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.301 : R3.361 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.95 : $96.39 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 120.72 : 121.05 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 : 1283.0 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.628 : R1.629 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 772.67 : 787.67 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $18.91 : $19.35 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.44 : $20.60 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.94 : $29.44 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $24.74 : $24.96 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.801 : R1.731 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.74 : $14.42 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 : 15.440 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $25.13 : $26.04 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $38.52 : $39.24 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2516.3 : 2493.9 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7479.7 : 7466.1 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $22.79 : $23.59 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 128.37 : 132.86 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16% : 16.24%: 16.36% : 17.13%: 17.67%: 17.75% : 17.76% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $4,035 : $3,611 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :  12/28 :

Ratio: XLE to-OIH

iErBye6.png

Ratio: OIH to-XLE -- You can BUY OIH without selling XLE.  Maybe sell later, or buy Puts on XLE

0kFhlyN.png

==

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2019 : Europe's Year of Change & Crisis

(The likely news flow looks bad for the Euro, but the USD may be set-up for a drop now.

Will we see a flight to Gold away from the US$?)

QE might help the Euro, as European stocks continue their collapse.

EUR in USD ... All-data : 5-yr :

hsCWmx7.gif

XX:SX5E / EURO STOXX 50 Index ... All-data : 5-yr :
EwubCSv.gif

===

'The Euro is a suicide pact' Economist Prof. Steve Keen on Brexit & European Central Bank ending QE

The dynamic is set-up... Tightening will collapse Stock prices

QE might help the Euro, as European stocks collapse.

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TURNING POINT in FX at hand?

We get many at the Turn of the year.

Big Traders clear out their books at the end of the year.

And then initiate new positions for the new year. Often in the OPPOSITE direction.

So we may see a weaker USD in 2019

FXFX ... update :

nud5Z9m.gif

==

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Time to Buy A$?  Might be.

Some other prices (Gold, XLE, DBA-Agri) tend to turn with, or a little ahead of the AUD.

And they seem to have turned up... or look set to do so.  Oil Next?

AUD: $0.704, Gold: $1,281.: GLD: 121.06: XLE: $57.05: DBA: $16.96:
InA$ $1.000, Gold: $1,820.: gld : 171.96 : xle : $81.04 : dba : $24.10:

AUD -etc ... All-data : 5yr : 3yr : 1yr : 6mo / 10d vsDba: Aud / = $0.704

yFdqzqt.gif

GOLD in A$

HQ9zKMK.png

==

NCM

05A8ttw.gif

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The Chickens came home to roost

FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : from FYE'16 : '17 :  Still in a sharp down-channel

UjlbzVF.gif

Stock Market MADNESS as Computer Algorithms Go Haywire!

Tech Stocks Lost Billions On Buybacks!

Take a close look at the U.S. stock market. It’s a mess. Investors who have gone all in on the FANG stock rollercoaster have doubled down and bought the dip. They must believe that QE4 will begin soon, otherwise their behaviour is certainly short sided. It’s almost as if these individuals have traded on the waves of a trend. 2019 will certainly be interesting.

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SILVER to DBA cycle - may be headed to 95% - Silver to $17.70

Ratio with cycle overlay : SLV / Silver ($14.42) to DBA ($16.97) = r-85% / Target: 9%, maybe March

4EWA3vf.png

DBA---- : x 95% - : x 106.5%

$16.50: $15.675 : $16.694 :
$17.00: $16.150 : $17.200 :
$17.50: $16.625 : $17.706 : Preferred case /$15.44 today: +14.7% by March
$18.00: $17.100 : $18.211 :
======

SLV / Silver etf ... chart : Note - these kind of very precise targets rarely work out - will need revisiting

JuW7Ya9.gif

==

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