DrBubb's Diary - May 2019 Trading - v.124

[drbubb]

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BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d:  10d 5d / SLV-lv

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DING - DONG! THE WITCH IS GONE !!

MAY CALLS IT A DAY... DEVELOPING...
TEARS, VOICE CRACKING...
'I'VE DONE MY BEST'...
VIDEO...
WHO WILL REPLACE?

[drbubb]

Too much Wealth-concentration?

DOW longest weekly losing streak since 2011...

Quarter of Americans say in credit card debt to pay for necessities...

JP MORGAN slashes GDP forecast to just 1%...

CEO pay rises to $12 million...

[drbubb]

ROCKET Gold? Changing spacecraft?

RoxGold up 5%, as Walbridge drops ... 10d

1.01	ROXG /Change: +0.05	Open: 0.95	High: 1.04	Low: 0.95	Volume: 1,483,607
	Percent Change: +5.21%

[drbubb]

OIH / Oil Service hits new Low vs. XLE Oil Stocks, as WTI Crude drops

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  06/29 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :  05/03 :  05/17  : 05/24 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1254.5 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1275.7 : 1283.6 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 118.65 : 121.51 : 124.50 : 121.88 : 120.65 : 120.65 : 121.30 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 271.28 : 249.92 : 270.06 : 280.42 : 294.03 : 285.84 : 282.78 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2718.4 : 2506.8 : 2706.5 : 2803.7 : 2945.6 : 2859.5 : 2826.1 :
S/AU: 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 216.7%: 195.6% : 204.7% : 215.8% : 229.9%: 224.2%: 220.2%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $74.15 : $45.41 : $55.26 : $55.80 : $61.94 : $62.92 : $58.63 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $75.94 : $57.35: $64.89 : $66.48: $64.25: $63.75: $61.62 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9 % : $26.27 : $14.03: $17.22 : $17.42: $16.34: $15.09: $13.81 :
OI/X :  44.3% :  36.1% : ====== : 34.59% : 24.46%: 26.54%: 26.20%: 25.43%: 23.67% : 22.40% : New Low!
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.920 : $2.940 : $2.734 : $2.859 : $2.570 : $2.630 : $2.610 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $2.970 : $2.630 : $2.773 : $2.932 : $2.819 : $2.739 : $2.700 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : -------------------------> 895.00 : 917.75 : 911.50 : 842.25 : 821.75 : 829.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 501.25 : 503.25 : 524.25 : 457.28 : 438.00 : 465.00 : 489.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 371.25 : 375.00 : 378.25 : 373.00 : 370.75 : 383.25 : 404.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 200.39 : 169.80 : 180.55 : 181.50 : 181.77 : 180.99 : 178.63 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06% : $18.03: $16.91: $16.93 : $16.45: $16.03: $15.92: $16.27:
D/crb: 10.37% : 9.67% : ====== :  r8.99% : r9.96% : R9.38%: r9.06% : r8.82% : r8.80% : r9.10% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R4.212 :  R3.391 : R3.833 : r4.041 : R4.008 : r4.004 : R3.787 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $94.47 : $96.16 : $95.62 : $96.45 : $97.26 : $97.82 : $97.48 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.72 : 121.51 : 120.96 : 118.66 : 123.66 : 125.99 : 127.78 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1254.5 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1275.7 : 1283.6 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : R1.532 : r1.61E : R1.617 : R1.681 : r1.730 : R1.735 : R1.737 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 819.04 : 795.8E: 817.40 : 772.46 : 740.82 : 736.20 : 738.81 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $22.06 : $19.53 : $21.10 : $21.38 : $20.86 : $20.07 : $20.30 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $22.31 :$21.09 : $22.57 : $21.70 : $20.26 : $20.75 : $20.57 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : + 8.18% : $32.70 : $30.22 : $32.84 : $31.44: $28.41 : $28.74 : $28.19 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $28.88 : $25.02 : $26.88 : $26.01 : $23.80 : $22.59 : $22.31 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.910 : r1.723 : R1.802 : R1.832 : R1.705 : R1.671 : R1.634 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.15 : $14.52 : $14.92 : $14.20 : $13.96 : $13.52 : $13.65 :
Silver: 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.200 : 15.540: 15.930 : 15.260 : 14.980 : 14.390 : 14.560 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.33 : +81.4% : $28.75 : $25.99 : $27.35 : $26.74 : $31.78 : $32.48 : $32.12 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $43.33 : $39.06 : $42.76 : $42.49 : $44.22 : $40.29 : $39.95 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 2847.4 : 2494.0 : 2618.2 : 2994.0 : 3078.3 : 2860.2 : 2853.0 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7193.7 : 7476.0 : 8121.9 : 7641.8 : 7968.0 : 7580.9 : 7747.1 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $26.59 : $23.82 : $26.05 : $26.69 : $28.07 : $26.88 : $26.86 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 163.77 : 133.90 : 149.18 : 158.24 : 160.53 : 152.84 : 150.79 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 16.24% : 17.79%: 17.46%: 16.87% : 17.49% : 17.59%: 17.81%:
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $5,883 : $3,770 :  $3,435 : $3,818 : $5,712 : $7,110 : $8,114 :
===== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  06/29 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 : 05/03 :  05/17 : 05/24 :

[drbubb]

" it is possible that WTI Crude is rolling over at around $60. "

And so it did eventually rollover... but from a little higher, $66.60!

Energy Bells - from 2016 ...

Only U is fighting the downtrend for the moment

[drbubb]

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

[drbubb]

BoJo? Who dat?

The Brexit Party was the clear winner in the UK's European elections, with the pro-EU Lib Dems coming second.

The Conservatives and Labour suffered heavy losses, with the former expected to get less than 10% of the vote.

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said he was ready to "take on" the Tories and Labour in a general election.

Overall, out of 64 MEPs declared so far, Mr Farage's party has won 28, the Lib Dems 15, Labour 10, Greens seven, the Tories three and Plaid Cymru one.

Mr Farage told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "With a big, simple message - which is we've been badly let down by two parties who have broken their promises - we have topped the poll in a fairly dramatic style.

"The two party system now serves nothing but itself. I think they are an obstruction to the modernising of politics... and we are going to take them on."

• LIVE: UK European election 2019 results
• UK results at-a-glance
• The UK picture in maps and charts
• What the EU elections tell us about support for Brexit

[drbubb]

A WHOLE NEW WORLD?

Maybe.  But it starts in Europe

Italy’s Salvini: “A new Europe is born.”

With almost all votes counted, Italy’s right-populist League party is placed in first place with more than one third (34.4 per cent) of the vote, with the establishment left-wing Democrats with 22.7 per cent of the vote.

While in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is reported to have 5.3 million votes compared with 5.1 million for the progressive-left La République en Marche! (LREM/Republic on the Move), led by President Emmanuel Macron.

Italian Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini, who is the League’s party leader, remarked on the results in his country, France, and the United Kingdom, telling media: “Not only is the League the first party in Italy, but Marine Le Pen is the First party in France, in the UK Nigel Farage is first. So Italy, France, and England — it’s the sign of a Europe that is changing.”

“A new Europe is born,” he added.

> https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/05/26/eu-elections-exit-polls-point-to-le-pen-win-over-macron-populist-surge-in-sweden-poland/#

[drbubb]

will bo blow it yet again?

Bo Polny - New Financial Era in 2019 - Cryptos, Silver & Gold Rules - Greatest Crash in History Coming in 2019

By: alexmark

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5p9qdUIys

[drbubb]

Gold may be waiting for a Rally in EUR & other non-USD fx ... update

[drbubb]

Stubborn Fed Is Keeping A Lid On Gold

May 22, 2019 

Includes: AAAU, BAR, DGL, DGLD, DGP, DGZ, DZZ, GHS, GLD, GLDI, GLDM, GLDW, GLL, IAU, IAUF, OUNZ, PHYS, QGLDX, SGOL, SLV, UBG, UGL, UGLD, UUP

Clif Droke Analysis

Summary

The Fed is holding the line on rates, which is keeping the dollar strong.

This in turn is putting downward pressure on gold and silver prices.

New highs in dollar index mean investors should favor cash for now.

There are many factors that can be blamed for slumping precious metals prices in recent months. Yet one of the biggest factors has been none other than the Federal Reserve. The steadfastness of the U.S. central bank in holding interest rates steady has kept the dollar strong, which in turn has weighed on the gold price. As I’ll explain in today’s report, the strong dollar and the Fed’s steady monetary policy will likely continue to keep a lid on the gold price in the coming weeks.

Gold prices have pulled back sharply this week, hitting a two-week low after the dollar strengthened ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. While gold bulls haven’t capitulated yet in their recent efforts at reversing gold’s 3-month decline, the metal remains perilously close to its recent pivotal low at the $1,267 level. Traders are understandably nervous right now since a decisive close below this level could result in another wave of liquidations among investors who still hold gold for safety reasons.

Meanwhile, the dollar is currently the safe haven du jour of the world’s investors, many of whom are apprehensive over the latest developments concerning Huawei Technologies, the Chinese telecom equipment and electronics manufacturer recently banned from doing business with U.S. firms by a Trump administration executive order. While the U.S. Commerce Department announced Monday it would allow some U.S. companies to continue doing business with Huawei and its affiliates for 90 days, many investors remained skeptical.

There is still an enduring fear that the U.S.-China trade war could further intensify this year, thereby potentially inflicting damage to global financial markets. Gold could potentially benefit from an acceleration of the trade war as safe haven demand for the metal would likely increase. For now, though, gold’s safety factor remains muted as there is just enough optimism in the stock market to undermine gold’s appeal.

Another reason for gold’s recent weakness is the increase in bets among speculators that the Fed won’t cut interest rates this year, contrary to expectations. The growing belief by some traders that the Fed will stand pat on interest rates resulted in the dollar index hitting a new yearly high on Tuesday, which undermined gold’s safety appeal.

[drbubb]

Buy Silver, Sell Gold? Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

As traders come back from the long weekend, there is some pressure on the metals. Is it time to buy silver and sell gold? The answer is not easy but there are a few facts that could favor that trade.

Speculators appear to be buying silver, which tells us the bottoms could be in or near. The pattern itself looks lousy but if silver can hold the $14 to $14.35 level, that could be the case. The expansion of the gold /silver ratio to 89-1 is another sign of the market trying to reverse. If silver is going to rally, it will probably come from a short squeeze, which could be created because the speculators are buying.

Gold continues in a lethargic downtrend and is headed for $1,240 unless something major shifts the pattern. Gold continues to make lower highs, and new resistance is at $1,290. Until proven wrong, the play in gold is to sell rallies that reach resistance, which is $1,290-$1,300.

The answer to buy silver and sell gold is not easy but would probably work. However, from a straight technical look, the metals should be headed lower until further notice.

SLV vs, EUR & GLD ... update :

Rick Rule | Three Places Where I Am Currently Investing My Money
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-05-28/Rick-Rule-Three-Places-Where-I-Am-Currently-Investing-My-Money.html

[drbubb]

Gold, Silver Bulls Need A Safe-Haven Spark

Jim Wyckoff Tuesday May 28, 2019

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are lower in early-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices hit a six-month low today. A solidly higher U.S. dollar index and stable U.S. stocks were in part to blame for selling pressure in the precious metals markets today. Still, safe-haven metals bulls are watching some elements that are not quite on the front burner of the marketplace, but may be soon. August gold futures were last down $6.50 an ounce at $1,282.70. July Comex silver prices were last down $0.24 at $14.315 an ounce.

There are several matters on the minds of traders and investors following the long U.S. holiday weekend. The U.S.-China trade war continues with no agreement in sight and both countries appearing to dig in their heels as a trade agreement anytime soon appears unlikely.

European elections last weekend produced gains in the populist parties in the U.K., while Greece’s prime minister said he will call for a general election in an effort to lower taxes. It seems that every couple of years, during the summertime, that political turmoil in the European Union moves closer to the front burner of the world marketplace.

President Trump downplayed recent test missile launches from North Korea, and has also been quieter on the U.S.-Iran staredown. However, these two issues could quickly heat up.

. . . July silver futures closed down $0.24 at $14.31 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a six-month low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $14.175. First resistance is seen at $14.50 and then at last week’s high of $14.635. Next support is seen at today’s low of $14.265 and then at $14.175. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

[hector]

9 hours ago, drbubb said:

Until proven wrong, the play in gold is to sell rallies that reach resistance, which is $1,290-$1,300.

And then when gold breaks resistance, these traders then suddenly pile back in? I think we are weeks away from a genuine breakout, no time to be pessimistic. To be honest if gold goes, silver will too. Can't really lose.

[drbubb]

DBA - Agriculture Fund -vs SLV / Silver ...fr.,mid-2013 : jul-2016 : $13.46 -0.19 / $16.53 +0.26 = r-81.4%

: jul-2016 /

Ratio:

Oversold Bounce in Silver due immediately possibly? chart

[drbubb]

As Stocks has fallen. TLT/US Bonds have shot up

TLT -vs. SPY ... All-data : Both: $130 vs XXX

Ratio: SPY to-TLT

xx

[hector]

On 5/29/2019 at 8:58 AM, hector said:

And then when gold breaks resistance, these traders then suddenly pile back in? I think we are weeks away from a genuine breakout, no time to be pessimistic. To be honest if gold goes, silver will too. Can't really lose.

Now that we have appeared above 1294, think we stay within 1290-1320, gold is unlikely to ever go back below 1280.

[hector]

Gold sterling has reached resistance

This was my insurance policy against Theresa May's failure to deliver Brexit. Still hold 30% GBP.

[drbubb]

Gold's Push Past $1,300 Has Legs As U.S. Threatens Mexico ...

Kitco News

After a slow start to the week, the gold market is finally living up to its potential as a safe-haven asset as prices push back above $1,300 an ounce ahead of the weekend.

Gold’s attractiveness lies in that it is considered one of the cheapest safe-haven assets within financial markets. Although the U.S. dollar index has been unable to hold gains above 98 points, it is still trading near a two-year high. At the same time, U.S. 10-year bond yields are trading at their lowest level in 21 months at 2.16%. Gold, on the other hand, is trading at a two-week high. August gold futures last traded at $1,309.20 an ounce, up more than 1% since last week.

“There is no doubt that gold will continue to look attractive as the U.S. dollar falls and with bond yields at current levels,” said Christopher Vecchio, senior currency strategist, at DailyFX.com.

According to some analysts, geopolitical tensions have reached a tipping point after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to implement 5% tariffs on Mexico in his latest attempt to curve illegal immigration into the U.S.

On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 30, 2019

The President’s tough tariff talk comes after China threatened to reduce exports of its rare earth metals, which would severely cripple the global supply chain for many international companies.

Ross Strachan, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, said that either scenario on its own would not have had much of an impact on the gold market, but together they continue to highlight growing geopolitical uncertainty and raises the threat of a significant global economic slowdown or even an outright recession.

“We are seeing a drip-feed of events finally impacting gold’s safe-haven appeal,” he said. “We’ve been expecting gold to perform well in this environment and it is living up to our expectations.”

/ 2 /

Gold Breaks and Closes Solidly Above $1300.00

Gary Wagner /Friday May 31, 2019 17:37

Taking markets by surprise today, Donald Trump announced that he will be imposing new tariffs on goods imported from Mexico. This in addition to his earlier actions in which he raised tariffs; on certain items that the United States imports from China from 10% to 25%.

This action today, coupled with higher tariffs announced earlier this month has certainly rattled the markets. The repercussions of this announcement have sent shockwaves across a wide spectrum of financial markets.

With the oversea equities markets already closed for the weekend we could see a tremendous cascading effect in global equities when they open for trading next week.

As of 3:55 PM EDT, gold futures basis the most active August contract are still surging to higher ground, currently up $18.70 (+1.44%), and fixed at $1311. For the first time since April 10, 2019, gold futures have traded above $1310. Most impressive is the fact that gold has had largest percentage gain in the precious metals complex today. In fact, silver is only 0.48% higher on the day, and both platinum as well as palladium are trading lower.

[drbubb]

Gran Columbia Gold (TSX: GCM) - The Cheapest Gold Miner?

Interview with Serafino Iacono, Executive Chairman of Gran Colombia Gold.

A Golden Opportunity in Gold Stocks is Upon Us

Excerpt

Prices began to pull back in February and have managed to maintain a test of the big support zone that runs from the $1275-$1280 area in the futures market. Gold prices have been in varying forms of consolidation ever since and this marks nearly three months of digestion following the aggressive rally that lasted from August of last year into February of this year.

Meanwhile, the GDX has been mired in a lethargic sideways trading pattern since mid-April and is attempting to remain above its 200-day moving average. The global miner ETF has been under-performing gold once resource investors began liquidating miners a month early this year. The old market adage "Sell in May and Go Away!" has a more ominous meaning in the highly volatile precious metal space. Based on historic precedent, resource speculators are conditioned to selling the complex in the spring and going away for the summer before returning towards the end of August.  

However, many Canadian speculators who made out-sized gains in the cannabis space, began to liquidate losing gold stock positions early this year to pay taxes by the deadline of April 30th. Moreover, many momentum traders and speculators continue to ignore most of the resource sector altogether. Although the GDX has not moved much over the past month, many juniors in the complex continue to be sold off, while others have seen trading volume slow to a trickle.

This has created an excellent buying opportunity in the junior resource space for long-term, cashed up contrarians. Recent trading action in the precious metal’s equity complex is reminiscent to the environment of late 2015. The first leg of this nearly eight-year bear eventually ended with a six-month base in the GDX, which was formed during the last half of 2015. This strong bottom remains in place today and was created after losing over 80% of its value from all-time highs set in late 2011.

More > https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-05-31/A-Golden-Opportunity-in-Gold-Stocks-is-Upon-Us.html