PH stocks: Technicals, Fundamentals, & 3A

[drbubb]

TIPS FOR 2020;  I asked Saturday's Real Estate Meetup.. of the attendees. 

What is you FAVORITE investment for 2020? 

And... Where do you expect the PH Peso to be against the USD in 12 months. 

Would love to see some thoughts from Others in this Group.  Then I will share what attendees said, and my own answer

At the RE Meetup: Two wanted to keep investing in their own businesses (paper products & online).  One wanted to build townhouses, and one wanted to buy some gold.  Two wanted to buy bargains in the secondary property market.  And very surprisingly, one wanted to buy condos, if he could get agressive finance from developers.  Then there was my idea...  (For the Peso, most thought it would be fairly stable in 2020.  Or they had no strong opinion.)

Here are my own ideas...

OIL may be a big upside surprise in 2020.  I may play it thru 6mo and 12mo calls on Oil stocks, which are even cheaper than oil is

Which Oil share? There are so many possibilities.  But maybe this Oil share etf: XOP > all-data :

#2:  the USD may be weak.  (And that would not be surprising if Oil is strong.)

How to play that? Calls on SLV, the Silver etf ... all-data : 10yrL: 5yr: ... Last: $15.84 - 0.01



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[drbubb]

Philippine BELLWETHER stocks are under-pressure.  Some are making New Lows*

Will the declines in PDLT and the three "M-stocks" spread out to the general Index?

PLDT (TEL: last P 999.5*) vs. PSEI (7,750) -etc. ... update : 10d / MWC (9.34*), MEG (P4.16*), MER (P300*)

*NEW LOWS FOR THE YEAR

My comments on the Viber chat:

+ SEEMS WEIRD to me.  I am a Global Resource stock guy, and Commodity trader.  If things like this were happening in MY space, I would probably have a ton of comments.  Now today, we are seeing some Big Pressure, and key support tested (& maybe broken) on what I think are some key bellwether stocks (MEG, TEL, MWC), but it seems strangely quiet here. (early afternoon comment)... Am I missing something?  Or does no one focus on these bellwether stocks?

TS:

I guess my written comment from 1-2 years ago (as known by those who received my Whatsapp updates then) that the PSEI started a bear market from Feb 2018 peak captures the big picture. That comment stayed and was reinforced many times (the oft repeated "sell on rallies") despite the many calls locally for new record highs and bullish economic picture from BUILDx3 to POGO to lowering of interest rates/bank reserve requirements.

In a bear market, the surprises are on the downside whereas in a bull market, the surprises are on the upside. The usual minimum bear market target of the magnitude (cycle or super cycle or even grand super cycle) that is upon the PSEI is 50% from peak.

+ My main point is ... some important bellwether stocks are breaking down, but not has not yet hit the PSEI index (early afternoon)... Maybe I am being too selective.  Let us see if this decline spreads out... Pity we cannot buy PSEI index Puts & Calls. I might put on a straddle here, If I could (at a low enough Vol.)

JV: Dont' worry... we are coming up with new products that we should be releasing in 2020.

PSEI index ... 10d : 6mo / Close:  7,701.60 , - 176.03, - 2.23%

+ TOP to BOTTOM day for the PSEI, which finally got hit hard.  Down 176 points, over 2%...  Bells (belwether stocks) Rang first!

PSEI : 6mo / Close:  7,701.60 , - 176.03, -2.23%

TS: The PSEI high of today is important and must be respected just like PSEI's high early Nov at 8,200 which also had ALI falling hard that day.

+ LOOK at the 6 month chart of the PSEI.  I think we can expect the support at 7.500 to be tested very soon.  It may hold on the first test, and then might be taken out early in 2020.  If it happens that way, I would regard that as Bearish, probably very bearish, and that might be followed by a test of 6500 and lower in 2020. (That is a heavy selloff - and will like bring some real follow-thru.  I am glad I have kept most of my powder dry)

TS:

For all the participants in this chat group, hopefully you have been guided well here with the general unequivocal (and mostly unhedged) bearish tone on the PSEI since this chat group was set up. If that bearish tone ran counter to most of the things you heard or read, being contrarian does have its value at certain junctures of the wave patterns. Note that individual stocks may not necessarily follow the general market.

[drbubb]

SPY might make it... to expected Resistance at SPY-325 to 330

SPY : all-data / Last: 319.57 +0.07

[drbubb]

Discrete Targets for US stock indices?

Looks like the record IWM high of 170.07 may be a good target - that's 2.4% above Friday's close of 166

That's 37.0% over the IWM-124 Low. +38.2% above the 124 Low would be: 171.4.  So I am targeting: 170-171 for IWM.

IWM vs. SPY, XLF ... update / Last: 165.97, 320.73, 30.68 / INDU: 28,445

2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

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[drbubb]

3A Stock Chart UPDATE

Longer term : update : w/AGI : 12mo : ? :

TBGI hit the Right level (0.25) for a Rally, and RCI hit the right level (2.29) for a Correction.

That is almost 10X

[drbubb]

3A STOCKS UPDATE - still waiting for their Time in the sun...

- though RCI had a good run in the 2nd Half of 2019

3A's favored Three : TBGI, RCI, ATN ... 6mos fr.3.1.19 : $ $$: 10d w/more/ Php 0.255, 1.65, 0.90 @ 1.31.2020

UNDER-PERFORMANCE, 3A is way under the PSEI, since YE'18:

Mo. :  RCI  : ------ / ATN : ----- / TBGI : ------ / +Ave%
====: #shs : value/ #shs: value/ #shs : value/ TotVal. : === : PSEI :
ye'16: 2.20 : -------- / 0.31 : ------- / P1.89 : -------- / 56.2k
ye’17: 2.55 : -------- / 0.41 : ------- / P2.70 : -------- / 77.1k
ye'18: 1.98 : ------/ 1.42 : ———- / 0.440 : ——— / ==== : 7,466 : START
Shs. 5,051 : 10.0k/7,042: 10.0k/22,727: 10.0k/30.0k: Start @12/2018
July: P1.49 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.355 : --------- / ==== :
Aug: P1.62 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.370 : --------- / ==== :
Sep: P1.97 : -------- / 1.18 : -------- / 0.325 : --------- / ==== : 7,779: +4.19%
—— : 5,051: 9.95k / 7,042: 8.31k/ 22,727: 7.39k / 25.7k: -14.3% : Qtr3
Oct: P1.94 : -------- / 1.12 : -------- / 0.325 : --------- / ==== : 7,977: +6.84%
Nov: P1.95 : -------- / 0.94: -------- / 0.275 : ---------/ ==== : 7,739: +3.66%
Ye’19: P2.17: -------- / 0.93: -------- / 0.270: --------- / ==== : 7,815: +4.69%
—— : 5,051: 10.96k/ 7,042: 6.55k/ 22,727: 6.14k / 23.7k: -21.2% : Qtr4
J’20: P1.65 : -------- / 0.90 : -------- / 0.255 : --------- / ==== : 7,201: - 3.55%
—— : 5,051: 8.33k/ 7,042: 6.34k/ 22,727: 5.80k / 20.47k: -31.8%

3A Underperformance is: (20.47/30=68.23%)/(7201/7466=96.45%): -29.3% @end Jan'20

 

[drbubb]

BREAKDOWN?: PH STOCKS, including Property stocks are showing signs of Breakdown

Only SMPH, of the top 3, have held up well (so far)

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 5yr : 3yr: from Aug.2016 / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

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With the Property stock peak now about 6months ago, we may soon be seeing some declines in the physical market;

Assuming the property stock peak is indeed in place,

[drbubb]

This PSEI chart shows why I am still Bearish on PH stocks

PSEI ... 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last:

7000-7200 is  a Key support level, which may soon be broken

I am watching how the PSEI moves in relation to the downwards channel and the moving averages...

1. If PSEI stays within the lower half of the downwards channel. As the test at 7000-7200 comes. and there is no strong bounce to the upper half of the channel.  The there is an excellent chance the key support will be broken for a longer journey to the downside, below 7000

2. Confirmation that an important (& maybe long lasting drop is underway) would be when the 76d MA (blue line) breaks the 987d MA (orange line), and futher confirmed when the 252d (red line) breaks the long term 987d MA

(MORE comments on MA's. Moving Averages to be posted: HERE, scroll down.)

[drbubb]

PROPERTY PEAK IN PLACE for PH - major price declines ahead in per Sqm Prices

#1: I made the following post on Aug. 31st, 2019: here

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years : from 9.2016 / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property stock peak= July 2019



"If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway"

# 2 :

Just posted this comment on a Viber chat

"I have said in books, interviews, and many times online that...

The Peak in Property stocks,. like above, normally comes 6-12 months AHEAD of the Peak in the physical market.

We are now right in that time frame- the time frame for  the beginning of a big drop in per sqm valuations."

"Within the next 1-2 quarters we are bound to see a very serious drop in Per sqm property prices begin to materialize. 

That is my strong view. And I would expect it to persist for years - maybe into 2023-24"

Here's an UPDATE on the chart above - Starting from Sep.2016 : PSEI vs- SMPH, ALI, MEG

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[drbubb]

( "DEFENSIVE ASSETS are not for a Rainy Day, they are for a Rainy Decade")

This is an Excellent, & thought-provoking interview!

PORTFOLIO Allocations, are a function of herding...

Maybe they are ALL Wrong for our changing time

70% -in-Equities, worked well for last 40 years, but not the last 90 years

Many strategies that worked over the last 40 years, would have annihilated capital over 90 years!

Does "Buying the Dip" Pay Off? (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)

"The snake (corporations fueled by Debt) has been eating its own tail (continuing buybacks)"

"i clearly believe in Intrinsic value."

To win... You need to boldly size undervalued/ under-owned "counter-trend" sectors" (ie. Gold)

"Most funds have portfolios that are TILTED towards growth assets."

"Real estate is a LEVERED GROWTH ASSET" = Dangerous in a time of Low growth

[webmaster]

LOOKING BACK from Feb.2024

3A's favored Three : TBGI, RCI, ATN ... 

AMAZING isn't it!  After 5 years, RCI, ATN, and TBGI, all wound up in virtually the Same place!  Will they all breakout now, following RCI higher.  Could be.  But be careful betting on that.  RCI has the best Valuation argument

THEN / P 0.36,  1.67,   1.25  @ 9.5.2019

NOW  /  P 0.127. 0.59, 0.385 @ 2.18.2024

chg. :      -65%, -65%. -69%

Believe me, if my 3A Friend had been wildly successful, I would have reported it with great enthusiasm.  

Maybe he would say, “It is too long a period,” but people can just scroll back and look at the progression.   Trading is a touch game, and we should not minimize the challenge.  Or exaggerate our own successes.  Since humility in the face of the challenge is a useful ally and tool.  (As the market itself is fond of reminding me.)

[webmaster]

BE CAREFUL. Don't ignore Book Values

Sym: Last: 9/19: chg.: Bk.Vl: %BV: PER: 
RCI  : 0.59: 1.67: -69%:  3.78: 16.%: 2.45 
ATN : .385: 1.25: -65%:  0.38: 101%:  n/a 
TBGI: .127: 0.36: -65%: .1553: 82.%: 136 
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