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REAL PRICES: for PH Property & Stocks: Historical Timeline

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REAL PRICES: for PH Property & Stocks: Historical Timeline

Looking Back... to 1950... and beyond?

Imagine that!  One Ounce of Gold was only PHP 70 ! (in the late 1950's)

EXPECTATION that the data collected here will show:

Gold in Pesos rose fast (as PHP lost value), but (some) LAND prices rose faster.

(best rises: Lots near major CBD areas, where high paying jobs are clustered)

xvXQrdO.png:

Peso dropped from 2.0 to the USD to over 50

PH Peso Gold prices are up >1,100x since the late 1950's !

YrEnd: PHP/$: Gold : PHgold: +5yrs% : Ov’all :
1945 : 2.000 : $34.71 : P69.42:  ===== :
1950 : 2.000 : $34.72 : P69.44: +0.02%:
1955 : 2.000 : $35.03 : P70.06: +0.89%: Unch.:
1960 : 3.000 : $35.27 : P105.8: +51.0%: + 50%
1965 : 3.909 : $35.12 : P137.3: +29.8%: +100%
1970 : 6.435 : $37.44 : P240.9: +75.5%: +240%
1975 : 7.499 : $139.3 : P1045 : +338.%: 14.9 X
1980 : 7.594 : $594.9 : P4518 : +332.%: 64.5 X
1985 : 18.90 : $320.8 : P6063 : +34.2%: 86.6 X
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k : +81.3%: 157 X
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k : - 7.73%: 145 X
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k : +34.1%: 194 X
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k : +102.%: 393 X
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k : +125.%: 882 X
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.49k : - 18.3%: 721 X
2020 : 48.01 : 1891.1 : 90.79k : +79.8%: 721 X
'16-18 (see below)::
2019 : 50.71 : 1523.1  : 77.28k: +14.5%: 7,815.: +4.67%: 0.101::
2019 : 50.71 : 1523.1  : 77.28k: +14.5%: 7,815.: +4.67%: 0.101::
2020 : 48.01 : 1891.1  : 90.79k: +17.5%: 7,140.: - 8.64%: 0.078:
====
5/’21 : 47.94 : 1875.9  : 89.93k: - 0.95%: 6,199.: - 13.2%: 0,069: = 6.89% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

=====
Sources: PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

TS's comment: "the peso fall from 2:1 to USD to weakest 56:1 was around a 98.3% collapse in value, if my math is accurate. So a peso now is the equivalent of 2 centavos of the 1950s. It may actually be much worse than that because one can recall the old folks saying a one-centavo coin could actually buy a number of things then. I don't think a peso can. So maybe my math is wrong or there is a quantitative aspect to this matter."

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Peso_exchange.png

Look at how all the significant movements in the graph can be traced to events in Philippine history (which is, looking back at it, composed almost entirely of bad news):

  • 1961: President Diosdado Macapagal allows the peso to float on the free currency exchange market, unpegging it from the US dollar to stimulate economic development. Its value sinks from P2 to P3.7 to the dollar.
  • 1970: I can only assume this is due to the First Quarter Storm, where a series of heavy demonstrations and protests and marches take their toll on the country. The value of the peso slips from P4 to P6 to the dollar.
  • 1983: Ninoy Aquino assassinated, and Marcos' shit hits the fan. The country rapidly deteriorates, culminating in the EDSA Revolution. Value of the peso dives from P8 to 20 to the dollar over a few years.
  • 1989: A series of ugly coup attempts threatens the Aquino administration, including a bloodbath in January 1989. Peso descends from P21 to P27 to the dollar over two years.
  • 1997: The Asian Financial Crisis occurs, and I can't understand it no matter how many times I check Wikipedia, but the peso crashes from P26 to P41 to the dollar in a single frickin' year.
  • 2000: Economic mismanagement and political instability during the Estrada administration, plus charges or corruption leading to an impeachment trial. Peso nosedives from P40 to P50 to the dollar.

And finally there's 2005 to the present, the only time in history that the Philippine peso has significantly strengthened in value, albeit with a sharp rebound in 2008. I'm at a loss to attribute this to any single event, but history has shown that movements of that scale do not happen without a reason.

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GOLD versus (Philippines) STOCKS:

Current level iof PSEI is about 10% of the Gold price
… Calculated like this...
PSEI ( 7,947) / Gold ( $1507 x 51.14= Php 77.07k)= 0.103 Oz.

Simple Rule of thumb for Recent Range may be: Expect approx.10% of an Gold Oz to buy you the PSEI.

Or: One Ounces buys approx. 10x the PSEI

GOLD,  Monthly prices since 2000

au00-pres.gif : $1507 x 51.14= PHP 77,070

PSEI / Phil. Stock Index, since 1988: 10yr.: 5yr.: 1yr. / LAST: 7,947 - chart w/o Labels

zOGkUB5.gif

SIMPLE RULE?  worked since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.080 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.120 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % : PSEI  : +1yr % : PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k: ===== : 0,651.:  ===== : 0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.: +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9 : P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256.: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196.: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257:  - 15.0%: 2,786.: - 12.8%: 0.301:
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594.: - 6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709:  - 4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: : End of Millennium "HIGH" for PH stocks??
1997 : 37.17 : $290.2 : 10.79k: +11.1%: 1,869.: - 41.1%: 0.173:
1998 : 39.07 : $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%: 1,969.: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143.: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%: 1,495.: - 30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%: 1,168.: - 21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: - 12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%:  N/A - : ===== : =====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%:  N/A - : ===== : =====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k: +11.9%: 2,096.:  ===== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47 : $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983.: +42.3%: 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622.: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: - 48.3%: 0.045: LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053.: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372.: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 : 41.01 : 1657.5 : 67.97k: +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 : 53.12k: - 11.9%: 5,890.: +1.32%: 0.111:
2014 : 44.69 : 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: - 3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k: +12.8%: 6,841.: - 2.05%: 0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558.: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111:
2019 : 50.71 : 1523.1  : 77.28k: +14.5%: 7,815.: +4.67%: 0.101::
2020 : 48.01 : 1891.1  : 90.79k: +17.5%: 7,140.: +4.67%: 0.078:
====
5/’20 : 50.60 : 1717.0  : 86.88k: +12.4%: 5,839.: - 25.3%: 0,067: = 6.72% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI
5/’21 : 47.94 : 1875.9  : 89.93k: - 0.95%: 6,199.: - 13.2%: 0,069: = 6.89% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

Sources: PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

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GLOBAL STOCKs - in terms of Gold

Here's the chart for US Stocks, the S&P 500 in Gold ounce - shows the "echo bounce" since 2016 and earlier

How much?  The SPX is now near 2.0x Gold oz, but could be rolling over into a deeper slide

jt4XOjO.png

Similar chart for Philippine Stocks vs Gold

jd0GhXa.png

This is imperfect. since I divide the Php price of PSEI by Gold in in US dollars. However, it also shows a rollover may be underway

Comparison: 

https://imgur.com/7XcM3xX 7XcM3xX.png

image.png

 

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LETTING The Inflation Genie out of the Bottle... First helps, then hurts stocks

Pattern: Stocks rally thanks to easy money, then inflation brings higher Gold &
commodity prices, and rising interest rates - which choke off the stock rally, bringing a stock crash

"The SILENT CRASH" : Here's a powerful chart from Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash book

hJ0W1oC.jpg

Prechter's chart shows a longer history.  My chart for S&P500 (SPX) and PSEI goes back to only 1990.

I found was that the Rise and fall in PSEI was of a similar overall magnitude, but was faster

And what is also interesting is the fact, PSEI LED the SPX by about three years

Type  : Period—: yr: Psei --------- Pct.  / Gold ---------- Pct. / Ps-Au ---------- Pct.: Phase
Rise1: 1990-96: 6 : P651>3171: +387%/ 11.00-9.71k: - 11.7%/ 0.059-0.327: +454%: Stock phase
Fall.1: 1996-08:12: 3171 >1873: - 41.%/. 9.71k-41.83: +331%/ 0.327-0.045: - 86.2%: Gold phase
Rise2: 2008-15:  7 : 1873>8558:+357%/ 41.83-50.49: +20.7%/ 0.045-0.138: +207%: stocks outperform
Fall.2: 2015-'19: 4 : 8558>7779:  - 9.1%/ 50.49-77.40: +53.3%/ 0.138-0.101: - 26.8%: gold outperforms
====
Type : Period- : yr: SPX ---------- Pct.  / Gold ----------- Pct. / Ps-Au ---------- Pct.: Phase
Rise1: 1990-99: 9 :$330>1,469: +345%/ 392.8> 290.3: -26.1%/ 0.841-5.061: +502%: Stock phase
Fall.1: 1999-11:12: 1469>1258: -14.4%/ 290.3> 1531.: +427%/ 5.061-0.821: - 83.8%: Gold phase
Rise2: 2011-18: 7 : 1258> 2701: +115%/ 1531> 1279.: -16.5%/ 0.821-2.112: +157%: stocks outperform
Fall.2: 2018-'19: 1 : 2701>2977: +10.2%/ 1279> 1485: +16.1%/ 2.112-2.004: -5.12%: gold outperforms
====

Saui8WG.png

Sidestepping the stock crash(es) was achieved...by Buying Gold

Rise-1 was a time when stocks appreciated fast / But Gold was weak:

PH: +387% in 6 yrs (+30.19% pa) for PH stocks. / -11.7%= -2.06% pa.>
US: +345% in 9 yrs (+18.04% pa) for US S&P500 / -26.1%= -3.30%pa. >

The trends reversed dramatically in 1st Fall...

PH: +000% in 12yr (- 00.0% pa) for PH stocks ./
US: +000% in 12yr (- 00.0% pa) for PH stocks ./

I have called the second, weaker rally the "echo rally"

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Traders History Lesson. 

If you like history and how to manage through it, this was pretty fascinating.

And how he found tools to help him spot EXTREMES IN SENTIMENT :

Why Today's Market Is Unique But Signals a Coming Recession (w/ Tony Greer and Nick Sofocleous)

 

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Philippines Real Interest Rates & Inflation
x
YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % : PSEI  : +1yr % : PS/oz. Realir:  iRate: CPI.i :
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k: ===== : 0,651.:  ===== : 0.059: 9.87%
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.: +77.0%: 0.122: 5.62%
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9 : P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256.: +9.03%: 0.149: 10.7%
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196.: +155.%: 0.293: 7.35%
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257:  - 15.0%: 2,786.: - 12.8%: 0.301: 4.61%
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594.: - 6.90%: 0.256: 6.63%
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709:  - 4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: 6.67%
1997 : 37.17 : $290.2 : 10.79k: +11.1%: 1,869.: - 41.1%: 0.173: 9.46%
1998 : 39.07 : $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%: 1,969.: +5.35%: 0.175:-4.58%
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143.: +8.84%: 0.182: 4.78%
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%: 1,495.: - 30.2%: 0.110: 4.92%
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%: 1,168.: - 21.9%: 0.082: 6.49%
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: - 12.8%: 0.055: 4.78%
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%:  N/A - : ===== : =====: 6.08%
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%:  N/A - : ===== : =====: 4.32%
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k: +11.9%: 2,096.:  ===== : 0.076: 4.12%
2006 : 49.47 : $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983.: +42.3%: 0.095: 4.60%
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622.: +21.4%: 0.104: 5.43%
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: - 48.3%: 0.045: 1.12%
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053.: +63.0%: 0.060: 5.64%
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068: 3.31%
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372.: +4.07%: 0.065: 2.54%
2012 : 41.01 : 1657.5 : 67.97k: +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086: 3.64%
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 : 53.12k: - 11.9%: 5,890.: +1.32%: 0.111: 3.65%
2014 : 44.69 : 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%: 0.134: 2.30%
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: - 3.42%: 0.138: 6.20%
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k: +12.8%: 6,841.: - 2.05%: 0.120: 3.88%
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558.: +25.1%: 0.132: 3.23%
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111:
9/’19 : 52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k: +14.7%: 7,779.: +4.19%: 0.101:
====
> Interest Rate source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/philippines_real_interest_rate

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Gold = "Insurance... tends to do well when nothing else does"

Was 8% of Portfolios in US, is now like 0.3%

The Vital Part Gold Plays in an Investor's Portfolio (w/ Rick Rule)

"Historically, when people were afraid, they went to Gold..  Now they go to US treasuries" (for the timebeing)

"One wonders whether we will see a liquidity crisis, when the world is awash in liquidity" (but in a Solvency crisis, things change)

"Bear markets are the authors of Bull markets, and Bull markets are the authors of Bear markets."

Bizarrely (to me the founder of this GEI website), GLD/Gold ($140.0) and TLT/Treasuries ($140.0) are now near the same price.

If we (eventually) see weak USD, and rising rates, this relationship may change dramatically

GLD/Gold vs TLT/Treasuries-LT etf ... 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $142.56 @ 11/1/19

GLD /Gold vs. TLT, EUR ... from.10/08/18 : 10d / Last: $142.56, $140.56 (r-101.4%), $1.117
5A1S3En.gif

Ratio: 1.014 : GLD/ TLT : $142.56/ $140.56 (r-101.4%)

QwZtIJ7.png

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UPDATE - and summary of TURN-points!

PSEI now only 6.7% of a Gold ounce, down from 1/3 of an Oz.

GLD-vs-PSEI ... update:

qVxOkC7.gif

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % : PSEI  : +1yr % : PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k: ===== : 0,651.:  ===== : 0.059:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709:  - 4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327End of Millennium "HIGH" for PH stocks??
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: - 48.3%: 0.045: LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053.: +63.0%: 0.060:
2019 : 50.71 : 1523.1  : 77.28k: +14.5%: 7,815.: +4.67%: 0.101:
5/’20 : 50.60 : 1717.0  : 86.88k: +12.4%: 5,839.: - 25.3%: 0,067: = 6.72% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

LOW: March 19th was the day of PSEI's low:
3/19 : 51.57 : 1485.0  : 76.58k: - 1.10%: 4,623.: - 40.8%: 0,060: = Only 6.04% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

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RICH SUBURBS - Historical prices in Gold ounces

From a study on the pricing of the Rich suburbs around Makati

"Col. Joseph McMicking of the U.S. Army and Honorary Colonel (Philippine Air Force), husband of Ayala’s majority share owner Doña Mercedes Zobel de Ayala, lured Manila’s influential entrepreneurs and business leaders to move to Forbes Park at a give-away price of land at Php8.00 per square meter. These business persons later built their buildings along Ayala Avenue and Paseo de Roxas, both former runways of Nielsen. San Lorenzo village then followed in 1954 for executives and upper middle class.

In 1956, the PAL pilots union (Airline Pilots Association of the Philippines or ALPAP) which was composed of more than 200 ex-US Air Force and Philippine Air Force pilots requested Ayala for a subdivision. Through the efforts of ALPAP’s president Capt. Antonio O’Brien and support from his friend, no less than Col. McMicking, Phase 1 of Bel-Air Village was opened in 1957. Lot price then was at Php15.00 per square meter for pilots, and Php30.00 per square meter for others. The village was developed by Ayala Development Corporation and was incorporated and registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the same year."

image.png

Bel-Air Village ... wiki / Value in Gold ounces...

Year. : Approx.Range:  Mid. : YeGold : Ye-PHP : GoldPhp:
1957 : Not Available :       30 :   xx : xx ;            
2005 :  34k - 40,000 : 37,000:
2010 :  76k - 90,000 : 83,000:
2020??

1957 : Php 30 psm /        70 = 0.43 Oz. of Gold

If no change, then: 0.43 x $1700 x 50 = Php 36,550 - that is a rise of 1200x or 120,000%

2020 : coming?

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PSEI in Gold is still in a Downtrend channel

PSEI has rallied to 7.6%, up from 5.4% of a Gold ounce, & down from the high of 1/3 of an Oz. back in 1996 (!)

PSEI in Php-Gold - the more recent high was Jan.2018 with 6.783/51.4= 13.2% of an Gold Ounce.

CVVrbPC.png

GLD-vs-PSEI ... from 2004: . Jan.2018: 6,476 / 50.3 = $128.7 / $1721= 7.48% of Gold Oz,

XcBrcXF.gif

GLD-vs-PSEI ... from 2004:

vJRPuIg.gif

==
 

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Q & A

Q: I always wondered why the US stopped using gold...

A: So that they could inflate away debt... Debt used to Buy VOTES

Q:

A: No.  Most countries now have Fiat Currency, currencies backed by only promises

Why Did the US Abandon the Gold Standard?

The US now has made way too many promises.  Including many promises that it cannot keep without extreme pain.  So the pain of inflation, and then hyperinflation must rise to a point that the alternative of "living within ones means", ie making only promises that the country can keep, will look more appealing than staying on the hyperinflation train.  I do hope that the US reaches the point, before it becomes another Venezuela, since the is the path the US is now on... under Biden.

 

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GLD / Gold versus PSEI - updated to March 2021

Will the GAP between (expensive) Gold and (cheap) PSEI be closed?  If so, you would want to buy PSEI probably

GLD-vs-PSEI .. from 2004: Jan.2018: 6,476 /P50.3 = $128.7 / $1721= 7.48% of Gold Oz, (was 7.48%)

rdt9ys2.gif

GLD-vs-PSEI ... from 2004:

YFFY8xg.gif

===

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