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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2019 Trading - v.130

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xx

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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GOLD prices have fallen to a Support Level - a rally may ensue any day

O1fxgua.png

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16 hours ago, drbubb said:

GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds)

Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold proce

GLD ($125.15) versus TLT ($125.49) from 2.Jan.2018 : fr. 5.Jul.19 / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

dc6B1AF.gif

fr. 5.Jul.19 / GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 start /

RATIO: GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

0dkN32M.png

The SWINGS IN GOLD, & cyclical Turns become even more obvious, when you also monitor TIPS prices

TIPS (inflation protected securities) vs Bonds (TLT) & Gold (GLD) ... 5yrmirror : fr. X-2014 : 1yr:

wsqobVG.gif

IF TIP prices are the Key to Gold... anticipating CPI moves may be the key to TIPS

How to play the US CPI (and Walmart) and what the data means to fears of recession.

==

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The LTPZ etf is a better bellwether-proxy for Gold than the TIPS etf

LTPZ / PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index vs. GLD & TLT... update : 3yr / Last: $71.71, gld-$137.43, tlt-$135.62
EvFCwMu.gif
3yr /
BEn30y6.gif
 
RATIO: GLD to-LTPZ : $137.43 / $71.71 = R-191%
wKvIgu5.png
 
==

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NUNES RESPONDS ... to the Shiffy Clown Show

Nunes Blasts Coup Plotters, 2828

Schiff-ster, looks like you and the Dems are going down.

You played your last hand (it seems), and it is a weak one

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If Comey has flipped... HELLary may be going to the Gallows, god punish her rotten soul

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Recession Warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY For 11th Straight Month

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Cass Freight Index once again warns again of economic contraction.

Donald Broughton, founder of Broughton Capital and author the Cass Freight Index says the index signals contraction, possibly by the end of the year.

That's just one one month away.

Six Key Points
With the –5.9% decline in October, following the string of declines in May through September (ranging from -3.0% to -6.0%), we repeat our message from the previous five months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”

We acknowledge that: all of these negative percentages were against tough comparisons (some extremely tough), and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP. However, demand is weaker across almost all modes of transportation, both domestically and internationally.

 

/ 2 /

U.S. household debt rises for the 21st straight quarter

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Interesting comments

"compression pattern on the VIX"

Parallels to the Time Right Before the 2008 Financial Crisis (w/ Sven Henrich)

 

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LONELY New HIGHS for SOXX.  Time to look at buying SOX Puts?

SOXX / semiconductors vs.: SPY, IWM... fr. 11.15.18: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / SOXX: 236.98, SPY:311.79, IWM: 158.92

QE1C7lD.gif

: 2yr:

TE3CuMP.gif

Ratio: SOXX-to-SPY

7YlPCjD.png

( Soxx: $235.76, TZA: $40.23. TNA: $63.78)
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
250: $1.24+14.90=16.14: 6.81%/ $2.87+16.45=19.32: 8.16%/41.2%= 19.8%  
240: $4.35+$8.05=12.40: 5.23%/ $6.70+10.20=16.90: 7.13%/41.2%= 17.3%
235: $7.00+$5.60=12.60: 5.31%/ $9.35+$7.90=
17.25: 7.28%/41.2%= 17.7%
230: 10.25+$3.80=14.05: 5.93%/ 12.40+$5.85=18.25: 7.70%/41.2%= 18.7%
Days: 34 days ( /30.5%: 17.4%  )/  62 days ( /41.2%: 17.7%)

SUGGESTION: BUY: SOXX.jan.$235P @$7.90 /236.89= just 3.33%: cheap insurance?

Prev:  Soxx: $235.76, TZA: $40.23. TNA: $63.78)
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
235: $7.65+$7.20=14.85: 6.30%/ $9.80+$9.35=20.15: 8.55%/
230: 10.75+$5.25=16.00: 6.79%/ 12.70 +$7.35=21.05: 8.93%/43.8%= 19.5%
Days: 41 days ( /33.5%: 18.8%  )/  69 days ( /43.8%: 19.5%)   /
Prev:  Soxx: $229.50
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
230: $6.85+$8.10=14.95: 6.51%/ $8.85+10.00=18.85: 8.21%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 17.9%  )/  76 days ( /45.6%: 18.0%)   / 167 days ( /67.6%: ???%) /
===

How much Gas is left in the tank?

As Impeachment Fizzles, The Stock Market Soars

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Billionaire Ray Dalio Predicts The Next Big Market Crash

==

Advice from "the 25th Richest Man in America" - and arguably the best living & active hedge fund manager

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The "JAPAN LEG" to moving RMB - there might be a Manila leg too

This Is How The Chinese Are Evading Capital Controls And Secretly Getting Money Out Of The Country

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

"The only way I know to get money out is to set up a Japanese company,” he whispered.

“That’s why so many Chinese nationals are in Japan. First of all, you can get a visa and permanent residency. Second of all, Japan and China don’t exchange tax information because they’re still bent out of shape about WWII. And thirdly, China’s police can’t come get you. Chinese billionaires don’t get ‘disappeared’ in Japan like they do in HK and NY,” he explained.

“That’s why they’re buying homes in Tokyo and Osaka."

"Despite capital controls, you can settle renminbi transactions in Yen,” he continued.

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BIG TEST?  Coming for Major PH Property shares

Ayalalnd at P 42 ... ALI: update / Last: P 44.00

lKjKbX1.gif

Megaworld at P4.40 ... MEG: update / Last: P 4.56

0OkVHHe.gif

==

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Ukrainian Indictment Claims $7.4 Billion Obama-Linked Laundering,

Puts Biden Group Take At $16.5 Million. Stay tuned.

Funny how this hasn’t hit the MSM.

Trump will have to tweet about it, with a spelling error so it gets covered. However, Schiff will claim he coordinated it with the Ukraine in a belated quid pro quo or delayed bribery or some other ridiculous bullsh*t..

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Trader Warns "The Rally Is Crumbling Below The Surface"

crumbling.jpg?itok=f7I1xh1U

...another notable aggressive divergence is taking place underneath markets, a trend visibly similar to the lead up to the 2018 highs...

/ 2 /

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PH Property stocks, are leading the (likely) Rollover in PH & in China stocks too maybe

Both PSEI and China Shares (China A50 Index, traded in HK)... May be ROLLING OVER together

PSEI has been Leading the China index over the past 2-3 years, sometimes Months in advance

HK:2823 (China A50 shares) vs. PSEI ... update : fr. 11.23.16 / Last: $14.84 / 7,825 : Ratio 0.19%

jaW05Qh.gif

==

BIG TEST?  Coming for Major PH Property shares

Ayalalnd at P 42 ... ALI: update / Last: P 44.00 

lKjKbX1.gif

Megaworld at P4.40 ... MEG: update / Last: P 4.56 

0OkVHHe.gif

==

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Charlie McElligott: "The Bull Market In Bonds Is Back On"

MCELLIGOTT_0.JPG?h=05d8c8ee&itok=RJM6hnL

"We’ve washed out that excess positioning. We had that big 40-plus basis point selloff in 10-years..."

/ 2 /

Saxo Bank: "So Much Liquidity Has Been Injected In The Market, It Is Now Impossible To Withdraw It"

central%20bankers%20teaser%202_0.jpg?ito

"The only solution is to keep injecting liquidity, which explains why around 60% of central banks are easing globally. Higher interest rates and QT are virtually impossible in a world of debt."

/ 3 / OR THIS ??

150 Years Of Bank Credit Expansion Is Near Its End

Run-From-Dollar-to-Gold-The-Dollar-Vigil

Today, we face infinite monetary inflation as a final solution to 150 years of monetary failures. The coming systemic and monetary collapse will mark the final collapse of fiat currencies...

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SOXX moved up from the level of SPY, to the level of FMC

FMC-etc / fr. 2008 : Sep.2015 / FMC: $97.23, SOXX: $229.68, SPY: $310.96

ExZ74d6.gif

==

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In PHILLY... here is what Cutting Edge Solar looks like

Solar Powered Apartment Building Arrives Next to the El

IMG_7283-1170x0-c-center.jpg
You may have heard, fossil fuel dependence is a bit of a problem for our humble planet. That mass of incandescent gas up in the sky provides an endless source of energy, but humankind has only taken baby steps in tapping into solar power. We've been slow to adopt solar for many reasons (according to some articles we just read), with cost being a significant hurdle. Fortunately, solar prices have gone down considerably as the years [...]

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GOLD ready to move up soon?

GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds)

Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold price - Last week

Tips Led?: GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 : 10d / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%

EyVPart.gif

UPDATED: / GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%... was: Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%, Gap swung by $5.76 !

zkBC689.gif

RATIO & Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%

20EHo1O.png

But a GLD-TLT GAP Straddle: ie Buy GLD-Call / Sell TLT-Put ?? 

Such as: ...

GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%
======: 142C: 142P=strad / 140C: 140P=strad / 138C: 138P=strad / 136C: 136P= strad /
GLD-Ja.: 0.66+ 5.35= $6.01 / 1.05+ 3.70= $4.75 / 1.67+ 2.31= $3.98 / 2.64+ 1.26= $3.90 /
TLT -Ja1:1.28+ 2.83= $4.11 / 2.18+ 1.71= $3.89 / 3.42+ 0.95= $4.37 / 5.05+ 0.50= $5.55 /
TLT -Ja. : 1.68+ 3.15= $4.83 / 2.61+ 2.03= $4.64 / 3.83+ 2.03= $5.86 / 5.30+ 0.74= $6.04 /
G.c /T.p : 0.66+ 2.83= $3.49 / 1.05+ 2.03= $3.08 / 1.67+ 2.03= $3.70 / 2.64+ 0.74= $3.38 /
GLD-Fb.: 1.32+ 5.80= $7.12 / 1.80+ 4.25= $6.05 / 2.47+ 2.88= $5.35 / 3.40+ 1.80= $5.20 /
TLT -Fb.: 2.38+ 3.83= $6.21 / 3.33+ 2.74 = $6.07 / 4.55+ 1.93= $6.48 / 5.88+ 1.35= $7.23 /
G.c /T.p : 1.32+ 3.83= $5.15 / 1.80+ 2.74 = $4.54 / 2.47+ 1.93= $4.40 / 3.40+ 1.35= $4.75 /
======:
$139 strads: Jan./ exp. 1/17/20 : 51 days-/ Feb./ exp. 2/21/20: 86 days- /
======: 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 37.3%/ 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 48.5% /
 > GLD- : 1.32+ 2.97= $4.29 / 3.09%: 8.27%/  2.11+ 3.53= $5.64/ 4.06%: 8.36%/
 > TLT - : 2.78+ 1.28= $4.06 / 2.92%: 7.83%/  3.88+ 2.33= $6.21/ 4.47%: 9.21%/
G.c /T.p: 1.32+ 1.28= $2.60/ 1.87%: 5.01% 2.11+ 2.33= $4.44/ 3.19%: 6.59%/

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"Putin says a DEEP DIVE in the DOLLAR is coming soon"

Catherine Austin Fitts – Deceleration of Dollar Integrity Significant & Serious

"you need the ability to withstand a 10-20% inflation rate"

(She is right,  She has been saying for YEARS that the USD would be strong.  "But Putin is talking her book," she cautions.  "But We have to be prepared...)

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KILLER CHARTS ?

This one, SOXX vs SPY, and IWM ... update:

izFAy6B.gif

... makes my Point mostly clearly - about this being a good time to BUY PUTS

We are now at point C - a point which I think is very similar to points A & B, new high on SPY, but NOT SOXX.

/ 2 /

The chart shows Fed interest rates and the NASDAQ for roughly the past 25 years - three huge rate cutting cycles, three massive bubbles;

two of which have already popped. Think the third won't pop?

EKZ2B9-XsAYlQdL?format=png&name=small

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-chart-shows-fed-interest-rates-and-the-nasdaq-for-roughly-the-past-25-years-three-huge-rate-cutting-cycles-three-massive-bubbles-two-of-which-have-already-popped-think-the-third-wont-pop/

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Hong Kong Protesters Gather On Thanksgiving After Trump Signs Pro-Democracy Legislation

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