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drbubb

TIPS FOR 2020: Favorite stocks & commodities

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Compare very weak XOP, with strong USO, Major Oil shares (XLE) and Oil Service (OIH)

XOP-etc: USO, XLE, OIH,.. update / 01.10.2020 : $23.22 (2.10x), uso: $12.44, xle: $59.92 (4.82x), oih: $13.01 (1.05x)

gtxytUA.gif

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Silver's not done yet,,, very possibly

I may buy Feb or March Calls. having cash over 200% profit on Jan Calls

Expert who called $1,500 gold is now betting on $20 silver in two months

Metallo CEO likes Silver

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XOP is pulling back to support - Buying opportunity ahead? (near $22)

XOP-etc... update: / Last:

ER1hlG2.gif

XOP alone ... 6-mo : vs.OIH : & XLE/ Last: $23.14

3hnSMrR.gif

Ratio: XOP to-XLE... 38.7%

0gBLZbX.png

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(Invested some of the profits from my SLV calls here):

Another way to play Silver?

THE GAP to SLV become so large, that Fresnillo shares looked irresistable

FRES.L vs- SLV/ Silver ... 2yr :

ndbA5Tr.gif

I bought some shares at 615P.

The stock has a dividend yield near 2.5%

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"CRUSHING IT"

"J." commented on my DrB's Diary

7 hours ago, jerpy said:

Just need a crystal ball or pin to pick out the true winners in the junior sector ha. Does make sense though.

(My response):

True.

But I think you will agree, I have had a consistent (though imperfect) string of Winners mentioned on this website.

GEI is CRUSHING IT with some real consistency!

Recent examples, (without even showing the SLV calls I tipped, where I made +235% gain, in about 3 weeks):

+ Taseko (TKO.t), to $0.80 from $0.55, last month:

XNOkUFb.gif

+ Dynacorp Gold (DNG.t), Most recent: $1.71 from $1.60 and $1.58, during the last week;

Ecro7vq.gif

My largest single position, highlighted extensively here was Gran Columbia Gold warrants (GCM.wtb), up over 100% in 2019

0wRqeVV.gif

You can find numerous other profitable ideas here.

I think if this was a paid service, we would have many very happy subscribers.  

(Please point me to a better FREE service!  Honestly, haha)

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On 12/21/2019 at 3:42 PM, drbubb said:

Discrete Targets for US stock indices?

Looks like the record IWM high of 170.07 may be a good target - that's 2.4% above Friday's close of 166

That's 37.0% over the IWM-124 Low. +38.2% above the 124 Low would be: 171.4.  So I am targeting: 170-171 for IWM.

IWM vs. SPY, XLF ... update / Last: 165.97, 320.73, 30.68 / INDU: 28,445

olmVNK8.gif

2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

===

STOCKS HAVE REACHED MY TARGETS, what next?

IWM is very near its 170+ high.  SPY is over 330.  INDU is in the 29,000-30,000 range

Here's IWM... 3-years / Last: 169.07.  Day's High: 170.55

2icTydq.gif

IWN- vs. SPY. DOW/INDU ... 3-years : INDU-last: 29,348

7eGfBHj.gif

SPY on its own: 3-years: 5-yrs: Last: 331.95 +1.03, +0.31%. Day.H: 332.18

SPY-335 now looks like a better TARGET than 330 was.

Ve6DBms.gif

: 5-yrs: Last: 331.95

PcsfQ3N.gif

===

YES, stock indicies could go higher,. but I will be watching for signs of a faltering rally now.

The best time to sell, hedge, or short is NOT when you think we might be hitting a top (since this could be wrong),

but AFTER you see clear signs of the rally faltering !

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8 hours ago, drbubb said:

GEI is CRUSHING IT with some real consistency!

 

I think if this was a paid service, we would have many very happy subscribers.  

(Please point me to a better FREE service!  Honestly, haha)

I’ve always enjoyed reading your trading thoughts, (occasionally I read other sections but I’m generally indifferent to politicians and such debates, life’s too short to pick arguments), your boards have been a constant source for me to do my own research.

Even older threads that don’t really take off are a source of inspiration. Over the new year, I was looking for Aussie picks and used an old thread as a filter.

You’ve had people pick fights over time,  me personally, I think that you nail your colours, shows good character and they generally stand up extremely well against plenty of paid charlatan’s I’m sure.

Long may you continue, it’s a generous website you offer.

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Thanks for your Kind remarks. Jerpy.

I hope you are making some money from the ideas you find here, and the ones that come from your own research that might be inspired by some ideas here

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ENERGY STOCKS - another Buying Window coming?

10 Bargain Energy Stocks You Can Buy Cheaper Than Insiders Did
SLIDESHOW:

OXY-etc ... update / see prices, below
TacnMwV.gif

GasL vs: xx ... fr. 2017: 2018: Oct.2018:

IKM1GTm.gif

: Oct.2018: 2019: 10d/ GasL ($8.12 -0.54, -6.24%), SPN ($5.19), GPOR ($1.90), RRC ($3.96), SWN ($1.86)

9pywedD.gif

Sym. /  Company---- : Price : BkVal: Insdr: Shs-OS : MkCap: / Yield : PER : EntV: Ebitda: EV/Eb:
GPOR/ Gulfport Energy: $1.90: 22.28: $2.42: 159.7M: $303.M/ - N/A-: 5.14: 2.43B: 1.01B:  r-2.41 :
SPN -/ Superior Energy: $5.19: $9.14: $0.83: 14.68M: $762.M/ - N/A-: N/A-: 1.20B: 280M: r-4.30 :
OXY -/ Occidental Petr.: 45.83: 29.46: 50.22:   893.M: $40.9 B/ 6.89%: 8.49: 101.B: 8.43B: r-12.0 :
Other:
RRC -/ Range Res.—— : $3.96: 16.88: $0.00: 251.M: $996.M/ 1.83% : N/A- : 4.16B: 1.20B: r-3.48 :
SWN -/ So’western Egy: $1.86: $5.81: $0.00: 541.M: $1.01B/  0.00% : 5.17: 3.40B: 1.28B: r-2.65 :

Ratio: SPN-to GasL. - SPN may be set for another sharp drop soon (if it cannot rally thru resistance)

44Ehmfj.png

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On 1/7/2020 at 8:59 PM, jerpy said:

This post interested me at the time, and put them in a watchlist with Callon.

So when Trump took action against Iran, decided to buy all 4. I’m still unsure on Oil but it seemed a reasonable way of playing any upside.

Dumped all 4 now,  Concho being the last. 2 marginally up, 2 marginally down; did I give oil enough t8me? Don’t know, but just didn’t take the chance.

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OIL is still weak,. and is being led down by Natgas, as shown by UNG, the etf

chart

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The real bubble?  it is in ETF stocks. 

I have just heard a very fascinating interview about this.  I will psot a link here shortly.  The argument in the interview is to "look for stocks below the ETF line" (which may not be included in popular indices for a number of reasons.)  Wky?  because when the MASS SELLING comes, it will be the indices and etfs that get sold.  And the stocks in the index will get pound.  And the ones outside it, may be relatively unscathed.  A very interesting idea, which was well-presented

Why We're in the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (w/ Steve Bregman & Mike Green) >

==

Stocks like KRO, VHI, DHX & WILD.t, that I have been buying recently are "below the etf line"

For that matter, GCM.t my favorite Gold stock, has also been outside the GDX & GDXJ index

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LONGING for Silver? (again)

I am waiting for the Right moment on THIS Chart

SIL / Silver Share Index vs. Silver

SIL vs- SLV, GDXJ ... 6mo / Last

gjscHam.gif

==

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I tipped Oil Shares Last Weekend: / quote

TIME to Get Serious about OIL?  Maybe very serious !

XLE / Oil Major etf ... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / $53.98, PER: n/a, Yield: 4.16%

vs.Yr.L: $52.55 vs. All-time.H: $101.29 (6.23.2014) - Yr.L was 51.9% of All.time.High

1AS7bRR.gif

=====

WHAT HAPPENED?  Monday Oil shares Gapped Down. (providing a great potential buying window)

& Tuesday, they gapped back up!

"With a strong opening rally today, off monday's gap down low", I wrote yesterday, after the opening

XLE et al ... 10d/

p6sUUhL.gif

Maybe we just saw a Great Buying Low!

===: ’18-19L:  AllT.H (date:year) L-%H/ Fri.7th: Mon10th -pct.-  (d’sLow): Tue11th +chg. +pct.- : (d’s.High, +pct.)
USO: $ 9.23 : 119.17 (07.11,’08): 7.75% : $10.58: $10.42  -1.51%: ($10.38) $10.50 +$0.08, +0.77% ($10.64 +2.50%)
XLE : $49.99: 101.29 (06.23.’14): 49.9% : $53.93: $53.71 - 0.41%: ($53.38) $54.31 +$0.60, +1.12% ($54.52 +1.95%)
XOP: $18.66: $84.04 (06.23,’14): 22.2% : $19.21: $18.73 - 2.50%: ($18.66) $18.82 +$0.09, +0.48% ($19.16 +2.68%)
OIH : $10.52: $76.25 (07.02.’08): 13.8% : $11.14: $10.97 - 1.53%: ($10.92) $11.17 +$0.20, +1.82% ($11.29 +3.39%)
====

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UPDATE on 2020 Tips:  I finally DID Some Buying - at the end of last week

Silver Calls: SLV $15 Calls, end-March, and mid-April

SLV / Silver 1X.... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: / Last: $15.93

KMzGFVX.gif

(remember, I previously exited SLV Calls with a very nice profit:

Previously, back in mid-Dec., : I bought SLV Jan. $15.50 Calls at $0.48
A few weeks later, in three trades, I sold them at an average of $1.59 - for a 231% gain

 

Energy Stocks: Calls on Murphy Oil, and Calls on XLE,

MUR / Murphy Oil : 5yr: / Last: $18.85 + $1.05

fFHipzP.gif

XLE / xx : 5yr: x / $45.27 - $0.04

Ut5D96h.gif

xx

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BULLSEYE ! - on my IWM -170 Peak Target, from before Christmas 2019.

MY TARGETS were, Late Dec. & Jan. -  - - / Actual Highs ! :

IWM / Russell 2000 : target was 170-171  /170.36- on 1.17.2020

Initially, SPX-3,300, later raised to: 3,350 / 3,393 - on 2.19.2020

INDU: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000.   / 29,600- on 2.12.2020

XLF / Financials etf : target not given.       / $31.38- on 2.12.2020

Index Peaks - chart updated in 2020, period starts in Late 2017:

aF6Xc41.gif

===== ( follow was posted before Christmas 2019):

"Discrete Targets for US stock indices?" - I wrote in my 2020 TIPS thread, at the end of 2019

Looks like the record IWM high of 170.07 may be a good target - that's 2.4% above Friday's close of 166

That's 37.0% over the IWM-124 Low. +38.2% above the 124 Low would be: 171.4.  So I am targeting: 170-171 for IWM.

IWM vs. SPY, XLF ... update / Last: 165.97, 320.73, 30.68 / INDU: 28,445

olmVNK8.gif

2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

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MIND THE GAPS !

I will show you one of my favorite gaps right now - and then explain it...

First, I need to SET THE TABLE...

As you might expect, there is a high degree of correlation between GLD (gold), & TLT (bonds). And even more with LTPZ (Tip Bonds).  It is clear in this chart

GLD -vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update : $140, -5.00, -3.65%, vs: $140 - 0.0%, $100 - 0.0%

VBU3QjR.jpg

Notice that... on Friday, there was a BIG DROP (-3.65%) in GOLD, but not in TLT or LTPZ. 

this is unusual. and the GAP you see there may be telling us something important.  The drop in GLD may be temporary, &/or bond prices maybe be set to drop

Q: Perhaps bond prices are finalizing their rise which will lead to a top that won't be revisited for some time to come

Sure it could go either way... or maybe the GAP will not fade.

Let me tell you how I will play this "narrowing", ie my expectation that the Ratio of GLD-to-LTPZ will narrow

Q: Will you go long GLD short LTPZ outright or via options?

Valid ideas, (though LTPZ is much less liquid than GLD or TLT.)  But I will do something else...

SILVER!  Or actually, SLV, which is the etf for Silver.  I have added it to the chart / update: SLV & GLD, vs: TLT & LTPZ

ds79E3w.gif

In fact, on Friday near the NY close, I bought $15 Calls on SLV: End-Mar. expiry at $0,77, and Mid-April at $0.91.

These are in-the-money Calls with a strike price below the Friday close of $15.53

Previously, back in mid-Dec., : I bought SLV Jan. $15.50 Calls at $0.48
A few weeks later, in three trades, I sold them at an average of $1.59 - for a 231% gain
(This is recorded in Real-time comments on my 2020 Tips thread😞

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bump

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I'm going to be forced into stocks in the next financial year for the first time in over 30 years but I'm quite looking forward to investing for a dividend return that exceeds the paltry 0.1 something % available on a bank account.

The capital loss exposure is my main concern in such uncertain times so I won't be looking for any dodgy penny stocks.

Oh !.. look at that 777 posts...

Now what was it Christine Lagarde said about 7. ...Can't remember the specifics but I do know it didn't end well.

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