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DrBubb's Diary - Q1. 2020 Trading - v.132

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When hard times arrive, woman give up on feminism.

They want a strong man to take charge, take responsibility,  and offer strong leadership

And we all want genuine wisdom (from either sex), rather than delusional nonsense

The Coronavirus Is A DISASTER For Feminism...

/ 2 /

Crisis EXPOSES Narcissistic Feminism, Hard Times Show The Ideology Falls Apart Under Pressure

/ 3 /

Why Voter Turnout Will Be the Lowest in History


> TOXIC Femininity Thread / Scroll down >


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DEBT-fueled Paradygm may reverse soon? New Currency ahead?


1. Peak in Bonds (Done? Or maybe "US Rates will go to negative", as Raoul Paul thinks)
2. More deflation, but many prices are already below production costs, so limited downside
3. Inflation measures bottom, then prices will start to rise.  The Fed may fear raising rates.
4. Inflation recovers fast, & rages out of control, & eventually the Dollar weakens?
5. Dollar weakness may lead to a currency reset, perhaps using govt backed Cryptos

SPX - since 1978 / Last: 2,305 -4.3% vs. YrH (3,394) : -32.1%


Bonds. TLT/ Long term Treasuries etf : All / Last: $159.43 +7.5% vs. YrH (179.70) : -11.3%


The previous spike on TLT ($121.9 on 12.30.08) came almost 100 days before the Low in SPX ($676.5 on 03.09.09)


INFLATION Measures - Crashing Fast... but for how long?
USO / Oil ... All : Last: $4.94 -8.0% / $xx vs. Yr.H: ($13.85 / $xx) : - 64.3%


DBA / Agriculture ... All : Last: $13.99 +0.8% vs. Yr.H: ($16.99) : -17.7%


GLD / Gold... All : Last: $140.11 +1.5% vs. Yr.H: ($159.37) : -12.1%




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from NEW THREAD in the Main section

GOLD looks like it could go either way...,

Shoot up to $2000+, or drop down to maybe $1000 over the next year or two.

In fact, Robert Prechter's EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) thinks gold has peaked, and could be headed back towards $1000 (GLD $100) : chart

But that may not happen.

I am more inclined to take a clue from that past. when TLT-Bonds shot up sharply in the GFC, in late 2008. 

It looked like this: chart


As today, in the 2008-9 Global Crisis, TLT shot up by xx% in a few weeks, and SPX dropped : chart.

There was a brief DIP in Gold over a few days back to $80, and then as TLT gradually gave up its gains, Gold rose and rose.

Over the next year or so, as TLT fell -28%, Gold rose +55% to GLD-$124, or Gold-$1300 (x10.5).

Might we see the same thing once again?

Let's look at the last few weeks... GLD-vs-TLT ... since Sep.2019 : 10d :


Bonds may be close to a final peak above the $171 close, or perhaps they had it already

If the 2009 patterns follows, bonds drop about 20% over 1 year plus, while Gold rises 50%+ ($2,400+) in 2021.

(I will also look at Silver)

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Are you guys aware of David Wilcock's recent videos about the PANDEMIC?

He says the Virus is real, and a danger to some - but the disruption will not last long/

He thinks it will be used as a Cover for the MASS ARRESTS he has been talking about a long time ago.

I am trying to confirm key parts of his narrative.

One interesting part was the recent arrest of the Harvard professor, Charles Leiber, who lied about his ties with China, and was arrested

Wilcock claimed they found vials of Coronavirus, hidden in his socks

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GOLD Jumps on Fee easing gold refineries closing///

Gold rises over 1.7% as U.S. Fed ramps up support measures
Kitco News

March 24 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday, following a near 4% jump in the previous session after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced unprecedented measures to support an economy which is reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

* Spot gold climbed 1.7% to $1,578.83 per ounce by 0116 GMT. The metal rose 3.7% on Monday, its highest percentage gain since June 2016.

* U.S. gold futures rose 1.6% to $1,592.20 per ounce.
* For the first time, the Fed will back purchases of corporate bonds, backstop direct loans to companies and will "soon" roll out a program to get credit to small and medium-sized business.
* Asian shares were set to rally as the U.S. central bank pledged to help the economy from a fallout. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.5% in early trade.
* President Donald Trump said on Monday he is considering how to reopen the U.S. economy when a 15-day shutdown ends next week, even as the coronavirus spreads rapidly.
* A far-reaching virus economic stimulus package remained stalled in the U.S. Senate on Monday as Democrats said it contained too little money for states and hospitals and not enough restrictions on a fund to help big businesses.
* Global central banks also took various measures to mitigate the damage of the outbreak, with Australia's;s central bank proposing to buy $2.35 billion in government bonds, while Germany agreed for a package worth up to $808 billion.
* Three of the world's;s largest gold refineries said on Monday they had suspended production in Switzerland for at least a week after local authorities ordered the closure of non-essential industry to curtail the spread of the virus.
* Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , rose 1.8% to 923.99 tonnes on Monday.

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GOOD NEWS at Last! Curves Bend (a little)

There is now a small BEND in the growth curves on Covid cases.  this could be meaningful

Mar #Cases: #Chg.: #CHINA: C.Pct: Critical: -%-: Death: Recov.s: %Rec: Active: Non-C: #chg.
23: 335,511 +30.5k 81k.Est 24%: 10.64k: 3.2%: 14,611: 97,636: +3.0% : 223.4k: 274.5k +30.5k: +14%
24: 375,536 +40.0k 81k.Est 22%: 12.21k: 3.2%: 16,369: 101584 +4.0%: 257.6k: 314.4k +39.9k: +15%
25: 418,099 +42.6k 81k.Est 19%: 12.98k: 3.1%: 18,608: 108323 +6.6%: 291.2k: 000.0k +42.6k: +14%

New CASES, growth per day
== Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s)
17: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 + 77: +33.%/ (13, 19)
23: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 + 73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 + 82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +9,279 +21%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)

THE BIG JUMP in RECOVERIES, up 6.6% in a day, is a good sign.

Part of that is just aging of a larger number of Cases - but I have been wanting to see that jump.

The other good news is the drop in growth rate of new non-China case, but the fall from 15% to 13.5% is not so meaningful.

We need to see New cases growing at less than 10%, and recoveries growing at over 10% per day

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Bo Polny – New Era of Time Starts in April -Jesus Coming Back (something big at Passover)

> LINK to his presentation:

He's a cycles analyst, sometimes hits it on the mark.  (But he is often wrong, and then quickly forgets that - I have a thread showing that.)

In the interview, he clearly states: "we are at D, ready for a sharp plunge into E... in April"

GH: "sharp plunge into  DOW 15,000 or whatever"


Above is my own target, done many days ago (in showing in earlier post on this thread) : about 16,000

"Between now and the END of 2022, I am looking for a terrible stock market,

Stocks should have a hyper-inflationary rally in Sept. or year end, followed by a huge drop (into end 2022,)

===== =====


Epic Gold, Silver Rise & Markets Plunge in April –Bo Polny


By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny predicted a market crash in the stock market on February 9, 2020. A few weeks later, it nosedived 36% in the fastest crash in the history of the markets. Is it over? Not according to Polny. He contends, “When gold was shooting up into the $1,600 range in February along with silver and mining stocks, I said don’t get too excited because the market was going to top out the end of February, and then gold and silver will have a down cycle in the month of March. That’s what happened. Why did I schedule the interview at the end of March? The end of March is a final entry point to get in on gold and silver positions. Once April comes, gold and silver will do the opposite. Again, please understand my words, they will do the opposite of what they did in March.

> more: https://usawatchdog.com/epic-gold-silver-rise-markets-plunge-in-april-bo-polny/#more-23165

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: Fav5 (w/WM.t):


Kicking off historic bull run: 'Look for new record highs above $1,921' — Credit Suisse

The comparisons between today's gold price action and that of 2008 are gaining popularity with Credit Suisse now expecting the COVID-19 crisis to eventually push gold to new record highs of above $1,921 an ounce.

“We remain major long term Gold bulls, with the market encouragingly back above its 200-day average having held above key support at $1,452/1,446,” Credit Suisse said in a note last week. “We still look for new record highs above $1,921.”

. . .

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold first saw a sharp sell-off, but following the intervention from the Federal Reserve, the precious metal eventually began to rise, kicking off a historic bull run.

“It's important to note that Real Yields have stopped rising and we still believe a similar dynamic will play out to 2009 when after a sharp initial correction in 2008, gold eventually went on to make new all-time record highs,” Credit Suisse said.

From the technical perspective, gold’s initial resistance is currently above $1,700 an ounce while support is at around $1,450, the note pointed out.

“Resistances above $1,700/05 are eventually seen at $1,734, the 78.6% retracement of the 2011/15 down move, then the $1,796/1,803 corrective highs from 2011/12,” Credit Suisse said. “Key support remains at $1,452/46, below which now completes a top to suggest a much-protracted correction, with the next support at $1,374/48.”

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IF/when GLD/Gold Jumps the creek at $160 (soon?),

then something wonderful ...

GLD / All... Last: $155.17, +$2.52, +1.65%


"Something Wonderful" will be Gold stocks "rediscovering" their Bull market

GDXJ / All... Last: $31.83, +$2.12, +7.14%


Gold stocks are cheap.  They got knocked down with stocks-in-general,  but for those miners who can keep their mines open, they are enjoying a high price for their production. Maybe the highest price ever within this year.  And ultra low Energy prices.  But the crowd goes on dozing. ZZZ-ZZZ-ZZZ

GDXJ-to$Gold Ratio


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Got is message today / Is this a real development??

Forwarding as received :  Dear All ,
There are reports that due to increased WFH , internet may crash . Already many European countries have issued guidelines to switch to SD mode on streaming platforms such as Netflix etc. In Kenya the issue could be more serious. May be we can do our bit on Whatsapp, to avert a complete collapse.

1. Stop sending Good Morning images - text could be fine.
2. Stop forwarding Videos.
3. Don't forward huge files.
4. Dont send corona messages.
5. Try sending only text messages.

A humble request to one and all.

There is another crisis looming large, world over. Due to the compulsion of working from home, home schooling and needs to connect with relatives and friends, the  Internet has come under tremendous load which is unprecedented.

INTERNET SHUTDOWN Coming?  Whodathunkit?  Haha. 

Maybe for about three days?  Starting, well, maybe Friday?  hmm


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STALL COMING here?  And a slide down to a retest the Lows coming?

SPY fell by 35.7%, 120.82 points, from 218.26 to 339.08

Rally of 38.12% of that drop ... 120.82 x.3812= 46.05 pt./ + L-218.26 = SPY 264.31

Yesterday we saw: 264.86 +16.67, +6.72%.  No gtees, of course !


VIX is 47% off its Yr.High of 85.47/ Last: 45.24 -1.56, -3.33%




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Let's see if the Gold-toSilver ratio continues to contract

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Here come the wild forecasts (as Gold battles $1700).  Is Gold therefore peaking?

Frank Holmes: Gold Is Going to $10,000

The Gold Report: Frank, you've said you expect gold to reach $10,000/oz. Can you tell us about your prediction...

When you realize the magnitude of it, it's very easy to see gold go up as the real asset. It's a very rational argument. The last time we saw gold go in a cycle like this, it went from $275 up to $700, then ratcheted back, and then went to $1,900. You can easily get a fivefold increase in the price of gold.

And that's where I said gold could reach $10,000, because the supply of gold is not increasing the way money supply is being increased, and GDP per capita is increasing in China and India, which together constitute 40% of the world's population—and which love gold for love and gift giving.

After I came out with the $10,000 gold prediction, I got topped by the great Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). At the Denver Gold Forum he said that he's looked at gold in the past 30 years, how much it's gone up, who were the biggest gold producers 30 years ago, who they are today, the total supply, etc. And he said for the next 30 years, gold could easily be $25,000 on the upside, minimum $5,000. It could happen earlier. So I think now that $10,000 is a very reasonable and rational argument.

TGR: Do you see silver and platinum group elements moving in lockstep with gold?

FH: Palladium has had a bigger move for very sound reasons, and that is supply side is restricted. The biggest producer is Russia. And for catalytic converters, the demand remains strong, even though car sales have slowed down. We're only using platinum. So I think with platinum and palladium, one has to take a look at the supply side. When the trade war finally gets settled, and the Purchasing Managers' Index, which is forward looking, turns positive—where the last month is above three months—then I think that platinum and palladium will rise even more so.

But I think silver is the special one. I just love silver. Silver's the best gift to give to your children, your grandchildren. Unlike toys and video games, if you get them silver, they always keep it. I think it's inexpensive. The DNA of the volatility of silver is basically 50% greater. So if gold goes up 10%, you can expect silver to go up 15%.

FH: I had become frustrated in seeing in the gold market the way the stocks were acting, and so we started applying our quant approach. We used 100 different factors. We spent over 8,000 hours digging to try to understand it. What we noticed is there are some macro forces that all investors should realize. Of all these factors you look at, some are good for screening stocks, others are very good for picking stocks.

And I noticed that they like royalty companies, and so do I. And I've always advocated to your readership Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE) and Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX) because they have a superior business model that has lower volatility in revenue, cash flow and earnings, and royalty companies have the highest revenue per employee of any industry group on the NYSE.

$20,000 gold price: Franco Nevada chairman makes the case
PL is "smarter than the average bear"
Current prices are already great for miners
Q2 - likely to be a "blowout" Quarter for miners. since Gold is over $1600, and the drop in mine production is likely to be temporary
With Oil at $25 a barrel, that's like a 10% cut in Op Ex.
Gold miners will catch up, when there is a big flow of cash into the Gold funds.
Dow to-Gold ratio can go back to 1:1, and it will take maybe 2-5 years to get to 1:1, so maybe $20,000.
Equities have a long, long way to catch up.

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"I WON'T TOUCH STOCKS... the next thing I do in the futures markets, might be to short bonds...

You gotta own some gold."

Doug Casey warns greater depression is upon us, gold remains steadfast as refuge >


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APX-0.82 & NIKL-1.66 (in PHL): update:


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TEST of Gold's all time Peak ahead?

GLD ... 10-yr /Last: $162 x 10.7 = $1,733 ... a-t-H: 185 x 10.7= $1,980



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Matt Drudge, is a Fear-mongering Trump-hater

Drudgey-boy, have you seen Stock prices this week?

Drudge headlines....


'This Isn't the Flattened Curve We Were Promised'...
GALLUP: Trump approval sharpest drop recorded...
White House fear of second-wave calamity...


Covid Stats


SPX, last 10 days


Dow ends more than 700 points higher as stocks log second week of gains

Stocks ended with strong gains Friday, cementing a positive week, as investors appeared to take comfort in a report that a COVID-19 treatment showed promise and the White House outlined a plan to begin reopening parts of the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.99% ended around 705 points higher, up 3%, near 24,242, according to preliminary figures, while the S&P 500 SPX, +2.67% advanced around 75 points, or 2.7%, to close near 2,875. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, 1.38% gained 118 points, or 1.4%, finishing near 8,650. The gains left the Dow up 10.6% for the week, while the S&P 500 rose 11.2% and the Nasdaq advanced more than 12%.

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16: 279.10 +1.34: 132.M: 40.11 : 30.92 +0.77: 161.71 - 0.14 9.23M: 1731.E $00.00: 4.000=$4.36 30.69 $99.73 - 0.08 170.09 +1.91/
17: 286.64 +7.54: 000,M: 38.15 : 29.94 - 0.98: 158.57 - 3.14 14.7M: 1699.E $24.7E: 5.870=$4.21 33.95 $99.78 +0.05 167.81 -2.28/
20: 281.59 - 5.05: 100.M: 43.83 : 30.74 +0.00: 159.70 +000 10.7M: 1710.E $24.5E: 6.530=$3.75 32.89 $99.96 +0.00 169.16 +1.35/
21: 273.04 - 8.55: 126.M: 45.41 : 30.56 +0.18: 158.61 - 1.09 0.00M: 1688.E $11.5E : 4.090=$2.81 32.31 100.26 +0.30 171.29 +2.13/
22: 279.10 +6.06: 93.0M: 41.98 : 32.51 +1.95: 161.73 +3.12 0.00M: 1738.E $13.9E: 5.538=$2.51 33.46 100.35 +0.09 169.54 - 1.75/
23: 279.09 - 0.01: 00.0M: 41.38 : 33.42 +0.91: 163.34 +1.61 14.9M: 1746.E $16.5E: 6.250=$2.64 34.54 100.43 +0.08 170.44 +0.90/
24: 282.97 +3.89: 85.2M: 35.93 : 33.93 +0.51: 162.64 - 0.70 0.00M: 1735.6 $16.94: 6.591=$2.57 34.62 100.04 +0.00 170.84 +0.40/
27: 287.05 +4.08: 77.9M: 33.29 : 33.79 - 0.14: 161.56 - 1.08 9.03M: 1723.8 $12.78: 5.836=$2.19 35.37 100.05 +0.01 167.66 -3.18/

D-: - SPY-: chg.: Volume : -VIX- : -TZA-: -FAZ-:
16: 279.10 +1.34: 132.M: 40.11 :
17: 286.64 +7.54: 000,M: 38.15 :
20: 281.59 - 5.05: 100.M: 43.83 :
21: 273.04 - 8.55: 126.M: 45.41 :
22: 279.10 +6.06: 93.0M: 41.98 :
23: 279.09 - 0.01: 00.0M: 41.38 :
24: 282.97 +3.89: 85.2M: 35.93 : 41.89 : 28.21 :
27: 287.05 +4.08: 77.9M: 33.29 : 36.86 : 25.38 :
Still bearish maybe, is the relatively weak volume
& that SPY remains below key resistance at Spy-290




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The Unfolding Global Insolvency (& Reboot) - partial summary, v 0.3

We are now in the biggest global economics shock in History.
There are bound to be long term consequences, from the huge slide in supply & demand,
And the shock to global liquidity.
Even with the massive money printing, banks are bound to be very cautious with their lending.
They will hold onto the cheap funds they get from Central banks.  Debt will be difficult and
Expensive to obtain, the further a company or an individual is, away from the favored circle
of first class corporations, that banks will continue to be willing to lend to.
Many lower quality credit borrowers will be slow in repaying, or will outright default on loans.
Baby boomers with their funds in the stock market, will be pulling them out, so they can
assure their own retirements, which are suddenly looking much less secure.  
What is at risk, is the solvency of the entire system, and confidence in the Dollar standard.
The system has been weakened by years of blowing up bigger and bigger bubbles

in state & corporate debts, and in over-valued stock markets.  Coming demographic changes,
And mainly retirement of baby boomers, who will want to live on savings and pensions
Larger invested in the stock market, leave the system fragile, and highly vulnerable to any
Lost of confidence in unsecure “promises” - ie shaky debts and fiat currencies.
Since a Debt jubilee may be the only way to “cure” the problem of excessive debts,
A “solution” of the type seems inevitable.  This could be the end of the Dollar and the Euro,
And its replacement with a New currency, perhaps a crypto backed by gold, or linked to
The SDR (ie a global basket of currencies

(That is my own quick summary & some personal thoughts… Still in process !!
On this excellent 120 page report, the Unfolding) : >

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Gold still moving with Bonds. SLV showed a big lag, & may be starting catch-up move

GLD vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update


GLD vs SLV : fr. mid-march : reverse /  $159.78 / $13.92= r11.48 /

Gold vs Silver ($1700.9 / 14.94= Ratio: 113.86)


fr. mid-march : Reverse: vs.Favs /  $159.78 / $13.92


Gold vs Silver ($1700.9 / 14.94= Ratio: 113.86) - Right shoulder?


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A PICTURE Is worth 1,000 WORDS

Since 1975, the Dow Jones Ind. Ave (INDU) rose from 577 to 29,568 - that's 51.2X over 45 years

If that whole rally is going to be corrected, the 38.4% drop to 18,214 (31.6X) does not do it... All Data:


Like Warren Buffet, I think more is coming.: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: 23,724



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SELL SIGNAL - from the FAANG Thread last Friday after the Thursday close

Sell "Silly-Con Giants" Now? /
Every bear market gives bulls one last grand chance to get out.

Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft are all back to their highs. This is boomers last chance to cash out the retirement.

Thursday Close, End of April
Stock: 4/30/20: - Low : vs. Low : -Peak : vsPeak:
SPY.  :  290.48 / 218.26: +33.1% : 339.08: - 14.3%:
SOXX: 223.58 / 167.79: +33.2% : 269.36: - 17.0%:
Amzn: 2,474. /  1,626. : +52.2% : 2,475. : -0.05%: HIGH of Year today
FB.    : 204.71 / 137.10: +49.3% : 224.20: - 8.69%:
Goog:  1,349. /  1,013. : +33.2% :  1,532. : - 11.9%:
BrkA : 218.7K / 239.4K: +9.47% : 347.4K: - 37.0%: BRKA is MUCH lower
XLF  : $22.79 / $17.49: +30.3% : $31.38: - 27.4%:
GLD : 158.80 / 119.83: +32.5% : 164.42: - 3.42% :
SLV  : $13.96 / $10.86: +28.5% : $18.35: - 24.0% :
StoS: R16.02/ R15.45: +3.69% : R14.68: +9.13% : Ratio is at a Peak??


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