DrBubb's Diary - Q1. 2020 Trading - v.132

[drbubb]

---

Stocks rise on hope that worst of economic plunge has passed...
NASDAQ -- POSITIVE FOR YEAR...
Algorithms Behind Recovery?

---

[drbubb]

Ratio
Date : NIKL : PSEI: pct.%: NI-pr.: Nikl/N: Cu-pr.: APX : -PX -:
05.11 : 1.58: 5,668: 2.79%: $5.55: 28.5%: $0.00 : 0.92 : 2.34 :
04.30 : 1.70: 5,701: 2.98%: $5.46: 31.1%: $0.00 : 0.95 : 2.29 :
03.31 : 1.55: 5,321: 2.91%: $5.14: 30.2%: $0.00 : 0.72 : 2.04 :
02.28 : 2.18: 6,788: 3.21%: $5.51: 39.6%: $0.00 : 1.00 : 2.90 :
01.31 : 2.86: 7,201: 3.97%: $5.79: 49.4%: $0.00 : 0.99 : 2.88 :
YE-19: 3.39: 7,815: 4.34%: $6.42: 52.8%: $0.00 : 0.99 : 2.83 :
Mid19 2.25: 8,000: 2.81%: $5.75: 39.8%: $0.00 : 1.24 : 3.60 :
====
YE-18: 2.20: 7,466: 2.95%: $4.83: 45.5%: $0.00 : 1.67 : 3.09 :
Mid18 4.64: 7,194: 6.45%: $6.73: 68.9%: $0.00 : 1.46 : 4.50 :
YE-17: 6.36: 8,558: 7.43%: $5.67: 112.%: $0.00 : 1.55 : 6.06 :
YE-16: 7.80: 6,841: 11.4%: $4.53: 172.%: $0.00 : 2.62 : 8.60 :
YE-15: 5.90: 6,962: 8.47%: $3.91: 151.%: $0.00 : 1.80 : 4.40 :
====

[drbubb]

US PROPERTY: "Nothing's Happening"

....due to an impassable Uncertainty gap,  "there is not enough price discovery" (yet). 

The expectations of the future are so confused that almost no one has the confidence to price a transaction (where they can see an advantage in dealing)

/ Billionaire Sam Zell on Market Valuations, Real Estate, Post-Virus Economy >

==

[drbubb]

Crazy Bo Polny is still madly bullish on Gold /
Bo Polny – Coming Gold Rush Will Be Epic >

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1nuyY2150s

[drbubb]

"each BAILOUT will get bigger" 

Jim Rickards: economic freeze is here, get gold, silver if you can and get ready

>

/ 2 /

What is ahead is MESSY, very Messy

USDollar, The Final Act - Frank Guistra

As I said a decade ago, the day would come that the Fed would be the buyer of US government debt of last resort and ultimately, the only buyer. All of that debt and the concurrent money printing is indistinguishable, as the debt is being monetized, regardless. These decisions are being made with zero regard to future consequences. The objective is the same – to avoid drowning at any cost, even if that means pulling the lifeboat under with everyone in it. Judging by the rally in equities since the Fed took action, at least they will save the stock market, which should make the 1% happy. (For the moment.) I don’t think we have seen the beginning of defaults and insolvencies in corporate America yet. The idea that we will have a V-shaped recovery is fantasy.

I predict the Fed balance sheet will be $10 trillion by year end. I will say it again. The Fed will never, ever be able to normalize interest rates and will never unwind its bloated balance sheet. That is a mathematical certainty. While I thought we might have crossed the event horizon, with respect to monetary policy after 2008, we are now squarely in the centre of a black hole. Policy makers made the fatal error long ago, choosing a series of Pyrrhic wins and inevitably losing the war. I can’t see how we emerge from the post Covid-19 crisis and it’s irreparable damage to the reputation of the US dollar without some new global monetary system. The unthinkable is now inevitable. The US is making the same mistakes made by Argentina, Venezuela and countless countries and empires throughout history. Creating a new system will not be easy; likely, it will be very messy. What that will look like is anyone’s guess. Perhaps a trading unit consisting of a basket of currencies and/or commodities. And of course, the only currency that has survived throughout the millennia, gold

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-05-14/The-US-dollar-the-final-act.html

[drbubb]

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller questions the optimism of a strong “V-shaped” recovery for the global economy.

Although equity markets have seen a sharp recovery since bottoming out in March when the world just began to feel the economic impact of the coronavirus, there is doubt it will last, reports Kitco News. Druckenmiller said on a webcast this week that “the risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.”

[drbubb]

Sharing Post from another group.

Still checking if 70 Scientists, Doctors actually approached Trump s as claimed.

Looks like a good read on China Virus
*****

70 scientists, doctors tell Trump how to regain control over corona crisis hijacked by radicals
The US scientists, medical professionals, and economists warned the president that the crisis was being used by some as a 'political opportunity'
 
May 21, 2020 – Last week, a letter containing a dozen science-based, common-sense suggestions for handling the China Virus was personally handed to President Trump. It was signed by 70 US scientists, medical professionals, economists, and other technical experts representing all parts of the political spectrum.

They set their political differences aside because of their shared belief that, as they explained, “genuine science should be the basis of our technical public policies and subsequent actions.  Unfortunately, far too often real science has been replaced by political science.”

In the case of the China virus, they noted, “some of the complaints relating to COVID-19 appear to be from those who see this pandemic as a political opportunity.”

Who among us has not noticed the ridiculous political posturing that some governors and mayors have been engaging in, which has nothing to do with public health and everything to do with political gamesmanship in advance of the upcoming elections?

These outside experts, on the other hand, promised a “non-political perspective and recommendations on the way forward with COVID-19” based on their “diverse backgrounds and expertise representing a cross-section of specialties and skills in a number of fields, ranging from health care to the physical sciences to economics. … We are all in the same fight, so we need to work

Immediately add a professional statistician to the COVID-19 team, continue flattening the curve, and require more accurate reporting of COVID-19 complications and deaths.
The initial models being used to project China Virus deaths were poorly designed and produced wildly inflated predictions of infections and deaths.  Perverse financial incentives to report even suicides and traffic fatalities as China Virus deaths made the problem worse.  Having an expert statistician, combined with clear reporting guidelines, would help bring the numbers back to reality.  

Federal government should put businesses into four categories (A thru D) based on the frequency and duration of close personal contact.
Right now some governors seem to be making entirely arbitrary decisions based more on politics than science.  Those on the Left seldom darken the doors of churches and gun stores, so it closes them down.  On the other hand, because their followers tend to frequent cannabis shops and liquor stores, it allows these to stay open.  

Having federal standards would help to remove politics from these decisions, and inject much-needed rationality.  An “A” business might be golf courses, while “D” businesses might be restaurants.

While private-public partnerships aggressively work to increase COVID-19 testing capability, educate citizens on how they can optimize their immune system.
Aside from living a healthy lifestyle, there is ample evidence that Vitamins C and D, in combination with Zinc, boosts your immune system and increases your body’s ability to fight off COVID-19 disease.  Rather than locking Americans down, health officials should be encouraging them to ramp up their innate immune system by taking supplements.

The FDA should immediately approve doctor-supervised HCQ+Z-Pak+Zn plus Remdesivir protocols.
Hydroxychloroquine should never have been politicized in the first place but, as soon as President Trump mentioned—accurately—that it was proving to be an effective tool in combating China Virus, his political enemies began to attack it.  ....

. . .

Congress should refrain from additional COVID-19 outlays, as an economically problematic amount has already been authorized.
An obscene amount of money has already been thrown at the China Virus epidemic, much of which was wasted. We built hospitals that were never used, and sent hospital ships to New York and California that saw mere handfuls of patients.  Other sums went to Progressive “wish list” items that had nothing whatsoever to do with the epidemic.  

Nancy Pelosi’s ridiculous 3 trillion dollar “fast track to socialism” bill is just more of the same. Any new expenditures should be specifically tied to dealing with the China Virus.  Our national debt is already close to unsustainable.  We should not be adding to it.

Continue to exhaustively investigate the origin of COVID-19.
Evidence is growing that the coronavirus not only leaked from the Wuhan biolab, but was created there.  An investigation is necessary not only to assign responsibility for the outbreak, but also to prevent a future outbreak from one of China’s labs.  Most importantly, it should include an assessment of the damage caused by the China Virus to the U.S. and the global economy, so that it can be used as a basis for seeking reparations from the CCP and its leaders for damages.  

If the CCP and its leaders are responsible, as the evidence indicates, then we should hold them responsible for their actions, and use all of the avenues at our disposal to recover, one way or another, damages.  

[drbubb]

SIlver: Now at $17.76 (SLV: $00.00), And GSR near 97:1

A Leap above Silver $18.17, could quickly take Silver above $19, I reckon based on this chart

[drbubb]

OUT-of-Staters will be the first to be Nailed by the Justice dept.

AG Barr: Crossing state lines to violently protest is a federal crime

Start with THIS guy, maybe....

(Human garbage is... as human garbage does...)



And move quickly to...

When justice is done, they might not be calling him Sore-Arse for nothing

10% of Antifa should be in jail, awaiting Trial... Then, we might discover who their real leaders are.

[drbubb]

How To Allocate Capital In A Firestorm Of Uncertainty (w/ Raoul Pal & Dylan Grice)

==

Dylan Grice, co-founder of Calderwood Capital, sits down with Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the proper framework for successful investing in dark and uncertain times. While Grice believes that the coronavirus pandemic could trigger the "mother of all credit events," he is seeing bargains all across the asset universe, whether they're in well-known stocks, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), catastrophe bonds, or uranium. Investors are thus subject to conflicting emotions: wanting to sell everything in order to avoid a market catastrophe, as well as wanting to buy high-quality assets that are trading at fire-sale prices. Grice describes how sophisticated investors, who have been researching specific securities for years and have enough cash to take risk now, can reconcile these conflicting inclinations by holding on to enough cash and, if one must put capital to work, sticking to the mantra, "buy what you know" – staying within what Warren Buffett calls one's "circle of competence."

[drbubb]

NEW HIGH in USA?  : SPY-343 coming?

update: 10yr: / Last: $323.20. (YrH: $339, we are now just 5% lower )

==

[drbubb]

CYCLES Call: "SELL stocks!"

"I think it will go all the way down. A low in 2022."

Charles Nenner is a former doctor who loved markets and switched from medicine to work as a technical analyst at Goldman Sachs. He has used his cycles to make a series of good calls on markets.  Recently, he and his clients sold US stocks they bought on the drop. He is also Bearish on Bonds and is bullish on Gold/ Charles Nenner on USAwatchdog >

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner sees, “A reversal in rates long term, and they are headed up. . . . Rates are going to rise.”  

(He also has spoken with Doctor friends who think there might be a second series outbreak of Coronavirus before year end, The immune system might only work for 3-6 months.. Then, another outbreak.)

On gold and silver, Nenner says his next price targets are “$2,500 per ounce on gold and $20.50 on silver . . . And prices can go much higher in the next few years . . . . Until 2026 in the gold market, there is going to be a bull market.”

On President Trump getting re-elected, Nenner says, “For the last 130 years, once the cycle on interest rates turns up, the party in the White House continues to be re-elected.  Isn’t that interesting?  Don’t ask me why.   So, it looks like (Trump) he’s going to be the next President based on that cycle.”

[drbubb]

Brent Crude rally may stall out near $45

WTI Target is about $43 per Barrel

==

[drbubb]

Excellent interview:

Kyle Bass on Corona Chaos, Insolvency Risk, & US-China Tensions (w/ Raoul Pal)

- Bass expects new Highs in stocks, and a faster than expected recovery (in US & elsewhere) -

- Re-hirings ahead /

[drbubb]

GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds)

GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

Previous: GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= r-101.5%

Chart is updated from time to time

[drbubb]

GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44: r-100%) from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / 9.4.20: GLD:$181.64 / TLT:$162.74= r-111.6%

Chart is updated from time to time

NEW PUSH above $2000 Gold may start next week

[drbubb]

Tech due for bounce maybe, after sharp selloff in early september

GOOG- twtr- FB ... from 7.5.2019: 10d / G: $1,532 -3.7%, T: $38.19 -4.2%, F: $271 -4.1% (Spy: $333 -2.7%)

==

[drbubb]

The Fading BOUNCE:

Bounce that I predicted on 9/9, may be ending now.. & some tech stocks are hardly off the recent Lows

AMZN - TNA (3x Bull on IWM) - etc ... YTD : Amzn-$3078, TNA-$33.70, NDX-11,248

TZA-vs-FAZ .. YTD: 10d / tza-15.83 -2.9%, faz-13.72 -2.0% : ratio: 115.4%

10d / tza-15.83, faz-13.72 : ratio: 115.4%

Ratio: tza-15.83, faz-13.72 : 115.4%

Sym :  Last : Oct-strike #1— :  Mid. /  Oct-strike #2— : Mid. : Diff. /
TZA : 15.83: $15C: 1.75-1.90: 1.83  / $14C: 2.30-2.45: 2.38 : 0.55/
FAZ : 13.72: $13C: 1.35-1.50: 1.43  / $12C: 1.95-2.10: 2.03 : 0.60 /
Ratio 115%: 1.153: =======: 1.280/ 1.167: =======: 1.172:
VIX : 28.91:

[drbubb]

The MINING MADNESS EXPLAINED                        

Guys, you really need to invest a few minutes to listen to this interview...

Try have patience, or skip to the last 1/3 or so... to hear about the opportunity in Uranium stocks. 

There used to be 500 Uranium related co's and only 20 are left "with 8 good management teams", says Mr Rick Rule.  In the Gold sector, there are 1600 gold co's and only maybe 150 tried & tested teams.  Be careful out there !  /                                 

Rick Rule: the coming bull market for gold and uranium >

/ 2 /

Uranium's day is coming... and there are few co's left : Like 20, with 8 solid management teams

John Borshoff: is it uranium's time to shine?

==

[drbubb]

[drbubb]

GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44: r-100%) from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / 9.4.20: GLD:$181.64 / TLT:$162.74= r-111.6%

==

[drbubb]

WHEN will they all GO BUST?  "Slowly, then all at once"

(sometime in 2021?  Why? Because many indebted people & corps have impaired Cash Flow, and it is not getting better.  Banks are unwilling to lend money.)

Gold Shares-to-Banks Spread: XLF/ Financials vs GDX/ Gold Miners - 85% Gap ... YTD: 1yr: 5yr: / Last XLF: $25.51. GDX: $40.67

From Hope to Insolvency: Has Everything Changed? (w/ Raoul Pal) >  Very Clear explanation!

===

[drbubb]

Philippines Property

Core 4 ... update: 10d / ALI: 29.30, DMC: 4.27, MEG: 2.96, SMPH: 30.45 ... updated 10/16/20

TURNS added

[drbubb]

GLD/ Gold vs TLT/Bonds from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / 10.21.20: GLD:$180.60 / TLT:$158.70= r-113.8%

Gold could be set for a bigger rally.  Will help if Bonds rise...

Gold (GLD) & Bonds (TLT) had correlated for a long time.  but that correlation is weakening. Suggesting some concerns about US govt risk

Looks like GLD / Gold has become a superior "Equity Risk off" Trade to equities.  Gold may be delinking from Bonds now

==

[drbubb]

GOOD TEACHING VIDEO for Gold stock traders ! 

this guy thinks a lot like me,  GDX & GDXJ are now at a point where they need to prove themselves.  We should know soon. 

Year-end forecast: gold stocks to rally 60%, $2,300 gold price - Chris Vermeulen >

"If we get another stimulus, that may be when the metals breakout again"

How I draw my GDX chart... update / Last: 39.19 -0.73, -1.83%

GDXJ chart... update / Last: 57.12 -1,06, -1.82%

==