PSEI Valuation, PE Ratios / & the "2020 Starter Portfolio"

[drbubb]

Latest PSEI Targets ... All-Data: 5-years: 1-year: 10d / Last: 6,491

I could see the rally topping at several points between here and (almost) 7,000

I am now operating with the thesis that US Stock rally will continue and gain (temporary) momentum after the election - ie David Hunter's final blowoff scenario.  And the Bust will come in 2021.  I have Created a new thread about this on my website.  This final rally should help Gold & Silver too... and has the potential to ignote a bigger rally in PHL, that could carry PSEI above the resistance from here to 7000

GEI thread : "The PRECIOUS DECADE"

[drbubb]

DONE ALREADY? :

The predicted rally in PSEI & PHL Property stocks may have come and gone already. 

Update: ALI: 32.20 - 4.87%, PSEI: 6,249 - 2.01% = r-0.52%

... based in the action of the last two days. 

Having said that, it could get a second wind if US stocks rally after next Tuesday's election. 

(the Winner may need to bless a joint stimulus program)

[drbubb]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:38 PM, drbubb said:

Latest PSEI Targets ... All-Data: 5-years: 1-year: 10d / Last: 6,491

I could see the rally topping at several points between here and (almost) 7,000

 

TARGET HIT !   HERE WE ARE ... update:  Last: 6,959 + 41

RESISTANCE NOT FUTILE? 

PSEI now at an important resistance level - as cash holdings grow...

Remaining holdings include Dividend stocks, like AREIT & SHNG

AREIT announced today: "At its regular meeting held this morning, approved the declaration of cash dividends of P0.34 per outstanding common share for the third quarter of 2020... Payable on Dec. 17, 2020 to stockholders on record as of Dec. 7, 2020.

PHL Property shares... YTD:  Core-4: ALI: 38.85 / 6,959= xx%,

May also be topping out... but no signs of falls yet... so hold off on buying the champagne.

[drbubb]

BETTER TOGETHER?  PSEI & UKX: they may be both topping out

Strangely. Bizarrely.  Philippine's & UK stocks have charted better together than separately

When I saw the chart of the FTSE100 today, it looked very familiar, so I put them together on one chart

UKX vs-PSEI... from 11.19.19: Nov'15: May'13 / 1yr: 3yr; 5yr: 10yr: ytd; 10d/ Last: 6,338 vs. 6,998 : 97%

c

In my chart there, going back to before 2014. I see two markets, UKX & PSEI, which may now be peaking out together,  And may be ready for a big drop.  Do others see the same?  The A-B-C rally back to the breakpoint may be ending

I have been raising more and more cash.  It is hard to find anything I want to buy... Other than Calls on precious metals (preferring Silver) & some precious metals shares.  Pondering Puts on Banks

[drbubb]

Two Indices and a Property Stock,

Bizarrely, UKX & ALI, seem to work like bellwethers, or wolf pack members, running with PSEI

PSEI vs... 5yr: 3yr: fr. 1/2018: Mar.2019: 12.2019: YTD: 10d/ 6,791 vs. ALI:  38.00= 0.56%,  UKX: 6,368= 93.8%

Mar.2019:

===

[drbubb]

ROLLOVER (still) Coming?

PSEI-etc .... from May2020: July2020: YTD: 10d/

PSEI ROLLOVER still looks likely. and could happen before Christmas - see chart above...

I missed out on some great gains on some 3rd Line stocks I once owned.  But progress in PSEI recently has been minor

Today vs. Recent high close
Sym. : High,  date :   Last : % chg.:
PSEI  : 7,300, 12.16: 7,298 : -0.03%
ALI    :  42.00, 12.17: 42.00 : -0.00%
SMph: 39.50, 11.20: 38.80 : -1.77%
UKX  :  6,600, 12.10: 6,571 : -0.43%
====
Strong close today. Thursday - chart above was made earlier

[drbubb]

Rollover scenario, update & comparison with UK stock index

Today vs. Recent high close
Sym. : High,  date :   Last : % chg.:
PSEI  : 7,300, 12.16: 7,298 : -0.03%
ALI    :  42.00, 12.17: 42.00 : -0.00%
SMph: 39.50, 11.20: 38.80 : -1.77%
UKX  :  6,600, 12.10: 6,571 : -0.43%
====

PSEI vs. UK and ALI... update:

===

[drbubb]

Rollover is here

Chart / Last: 6.552.46 - 176.09  Low: 6,489.79

 

 

[drbubb]

BACK TO BASE?  (6,500 mid-point) Where next?

PSEI update... w/others / Last: 6,495

Fri.close vs. Mid 2019 high
Sym. : High,  2019 : 04.16 / %vs H :
PSEI  : 8,365, 07.15: 6,495 : - 32.4%
ALI    : 53.50, 07.15: 33.25 : - 37.9%
SMph: 42.40, 03.??: 35.85 : -1.77%
MEG : P6.50, 07.15: P3.38 : -1.77%
UKX  :  7,648, 07.30: 7,020 : -8.21%

[drbubb]

PSEI back near top of Downtrend

PSEI ... update : 6,888 -85

6/17.close vs. Mid 2019 high
Sym. : High,  2019 : 06.17 / %vs H:
PSEI  : 8,365, 07.15: 6,888 : - 17.7%
ALI    : 53.50, 07.15: 36.65 : - 31.5%
SMph: 42.40, 03.??: 36.95 : -12.9%
MEG : P6.50, 07.15: P3.19 : -51.0%
UKX  :  7,648, 07.30: 7,148 : -6.54%

[drbubb]

PSEI vs UKX - About to Rollover ?

PSEI vs UKX - ... 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: from 6.28.2020:  Psei (6,938) / UKX (7,103) = ratio: 97.7%

From 2017:

update

RATIO: Psei (6,938) / UKX (7,103) = ratio: 97.7%

xxx

[drbubb]

Timing CLUES from Gambling co's...  PLC and BEL ?

update / Last: PLC: 0.445 /6,835 = xx.  BEL: 1.46 /6,835  = 2.13%. 

[drbubb]

PSEI lags Jakarta too.

JSI vs PSEI and UKX ... from Jul 31, 2018: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 10d / 6,070, 6,270, 7,032

3yr:

===

[drbubb]

At top of Downtrend - What next?

If it can break above the Down channel, PSEI might move to 7,500 or even 8,000 if we see Hunter's melt-up in stocks.

The move could be quick, if it comes

PSEI: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 10d / last: 6,915 - Testing resistance at 7,000

==

[drbubb]

Vantage Equities Inc. (PSE: V) will subscribe to one hundred twenty-five million shares at pre-incorporation of Philequity Alpha One Fund Inc. at PhP1.00 par value. This was approved by the board on October 15, 2018. Vantage Equities paid PhP31.25 million on October 15 for the 25% of the 125 million shares subscribed.

Vantage Equities’ investment in Philequity Alpha One Fund is part of the company’s investment portfolio diversification. Philequity Alpha One Fund will be incorporated to engage in the business of an open-end investment company.

> https://www.phstocks.com/vantage-equities-pre-incorporation-investment-in-subsidiary-philequity-alpha-one-fund/

[drbubb]

PSEI ... ALLdata : 10yr: 5yr 1yr / Last: 6,620. PE

 

MoEnd: PSEI: PEratio : Earns. : GNI$: $Php =GNI:  G/P
Ye’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ===========: 5.30%:
Ye’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/ -4%pa  : 7.06%:
Ye’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55% : 6.64%:
Ye’06 : 2,983 : 14.570 : P204.7 : +46.9% p.a.    : 6.86%: -7.0% E:
Ye’07 : 3,622 : 15.490 : P233.8 : +14.2% p.a.    : 6.46%: -6.70%:= (0.24%): Sell
Ye’08 : 1,873 :   9.420 : P198.8 :  -15.0%  p.a.  : 10.62% -7.25%:=  3.37%  : BUY !!
Ye’09 : 3,053 : 12.589 : P242.5 : +22.0%  p.a.   : 7.94%: -7.88%:=  0.06%  :
Ye’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : +23.5%  p.a.   : 7.13%: -5.89%:=  1.24%. :
Ye’11 : 4,372 : 15.636 : P279,6 :  - 6.61%  p.a.  : 6.40%: -5.08%:=  1.32%  :
Ye’12 : 5,813 : 17.967 : P323.5 : +15.70% p.a. : 5.57%: -4.15%:=  1.42%  :
Ye’13 : 5,890 : 17.516 : P336.3 : +  3.96% p.a. : 5.71%: -3.60%:=  2.11%. : BUY !
Ye’14 : 7,231 : 19.980 : P361.9 : + 7.61% p.a.  : 5.01%: -3.86%:=  1.15%  :
Ye’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 :  - 1.74% p.a.  : 5.11%: -3.86%:=  1.25%. :
Ye’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : +10.7%  p.a.  : 5.76%: -4.10%:=  1.66%  : Near Buy?
Ye’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : + 2.36% p.a.  : 4.71%: -4.63%:= (0.08%): Sell
Ye’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : + 3.82%  p.a  : 5.59%: -5.70%:= (0.11%):
Ye’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3%  p.a.  : 6.23%:. ??
Ye’20 : 7,140 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00%  p.a  :
Ye’21 : 7,355 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00%  p.a  :
Aver.:  0,000 : 00000  : ======

[drbubb]

the "2020 Starter Portfolio": UPDATED, to Sep.2022

Sym.  : Company-: 02/21: -High (in’20): vs.High: x25K : 9.6.22: '22-H: . P.Value : % Chg.
PSEI   : PSEI Index: 7,370 : 9059: (01’18) :  -18.7% : 13.57 : 6,710 : 7,552: P91,045: - 8.95%
GLO.   : Globe Tel. : 1,889 : 2702: (06’15) : -30.3%:    13.2 :  2,168.: 3,670: P28,692: +14.8%
MBT   : MetroBank 60.85 : 90.53 (01’18) : -32.8% : 401.8 :  53.50: 63.50: P21,496: - 14.0%
TEL.   : PLDT Inc.  : 1,025 : 3,422 (09’14) : -70.0% :   24.4 :  1,737.:  1,984: P42,365: +69.5%
SHLph P.Shell Pet: 28.95 : 79.35 (02’17) : -63.5%: 863.6 :  20.65: 24.50:  P17,832: - 28.7%
Four Stocks ==========================: P100K: ==== : ====: 110,385 : +10.4%

Thanks mainly to TEL, the 4-stocks portfolio was up 10.4%.

And showed an outperformance of : 110,385 / 91,045 = +21.2%

[drbubb]

SHLph seems to be bottoming

SHLph / Ph. Shell ... All-W: All-D: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 20.65: YrH: 24.50: 

1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 20.65: YrH: 24.50: 

===

[drbubb]

GAP DOWN this week in PSEI, as rates rise, and POGOs get booted out

PSEI... All: ... 10d / last: 5,741.07 -193, -3.26%

==

[drbubb]

SHLph .... update:  10d / 17.00 -0.50, -2.86%.  Yield:  5.88% (on P 1.000) ... updated to 12.07.22

[drbubb]

OPEN END MUTUAL FUNDS, NAVs:  (x??): https://www.pifa.com.ph/factsfignavps.asp

FUND NAME
Philequity… (PE)….         :  12.07.22 :  1 year   :  3 year :    5 year :       YTD :    YE’21
PE: Dividend Yield Fund :    1.2036 :  - 7.83%, - 2.22%,  - 2.24%*  -11.26%.  1.356
PE: Fund, Inc.                  :   33.864 :  - 5.07%, - 3.67%,  - 2.98%:   - 7.46%.  36.59
PE: MSCI Phl. Index        :      0.864 :  - 5.88%, - 5.28%,     N/a.  :   - 8.22%.  0.941
PE: PSE Index.                :      4.572 :   - 5.26%, - 4.26%, - 3.26%:   - 7.83%.  4.960
PAOF: Alpha One Fund  :      1.059 :    - 7.90%.     N/a.        N/a.  :   - 8.93%.  1.163
======
Compare:

PSEI.                                :    6,525.0 :   7,147.3 :  7,801.7 :   8,174.9:  -8.40%. 7,122.6
> change in PSEI.           :      ====  :   - 8.71%,  - 16.4%,  - 20.2%:  -8.40%
Assumed Dividends.      :       150.0 :       150.  :     450.0 :     750.0:   =====. (-138)
PSEI + est. Divs.             :    6,525.0 :   6,997.3 :    7,350. :   7,425. :  -6.60%. 6,985.
> change in PSEI, adj.    :      ====  :   - 6.75%,  - 11.2%,  - 12.1 %:  -6.60%
Philam Strategic Growth.    450.95 :   - 7.89%,  - 5.39%,  - 4.31%:  -9.93%, 500.63
Phil. Stock Index Fund.  :     761.35 :   - 5.52%,  - 4.32%,  - 3.26%:  -8.10%,  828.45
* Best performer, list of 25 Stock Funds

V / Vantage vs.PSE, PSEI ... update: / PSEI: 6,525 = V: 0.71. 1.09%/100, PSE: 155.90. 2.39%

PSEI ... 5yr:

[drbubb]

SHELL PILIPINAS update

SHLPH ... All: 5yr: 2yr: 10d / Last: 16.90 ( Range: 16.02 to 22.25 )

[drbubb]

the "2020 Starter Portfolio": UPDATED, to Jan.2023

Sym.  : Company-: 02/21: -High (in’20): vs.High: x25K: 1.10.23: '22-H: . P.Value : % Chg.
PSEI   : PSEI Index:  7,370 : 9059: (01’18) :  -18.7% : 13.57 : 6,709 : 7,552: P91,041: - 8.96%
GLO.   : Globe Tel. : 1,889 : 2702: (06’15) : -30.3%:    13.2 :  2,060.: 3355: P27,192 : +8.77%
MBT   : MetroBank 60.85 : 90.53 (01’18) : -32.8% : 401.8 :  57.30: 63.50: P23,023: - 7.91%
TEL.   : PLDT Inc.   : 1,025 : 3,422 (09’14) : -70.0%:   24.4 :  1,420:  1,984: P34,648: +38.6%
SHLph P.Shell Pet: 28.95 : 79.35 (02’17) : -63.5%: 863.6 :  16.70 : 22.25: P14,422: - 42.3%
Four Stocks ==========================: P100K: ==== : ====: P99,285 : -0.71%

Thanks mainly to TEL, the 4-stocks portfolio was FLAT, hurt by SHLPH

And showed an outperformance of : P99,285 / 91,041 = +9.05%

[drbubb]

SHLPH / SHELL Philippines : ALL: 5yr: from 2019-Log: 2022: 10d / Last: 16.56 +0.40. PER:6.56x, Yield: 6.0%

from 2019-Log:

====. : 3/ 23:  2022 :  2021 : 2020 : 2019 :
Net Inc. ====: 4.10B: 3.86B: (16.2B) 5.62B:
EBITDA  ====: 14.0E: 13.1B: (16.5B): 14.3B:
T. Borr.  ====: 30.0E:  30.2B: 35.0B: 29.2B:
Sh. Eqy  ====: 28.0E: 26.2B: 23.6B: 39.8B:
D /E R  :  ====: 107%?  115%:
BV / sh.   ====: 17.00E 16.22: 14.65: 24.69:
CF / sh.:  ====: ====: P4.90: (7.40): P6.19:
E.P.S.    : ====: ====: P2.39: (10.0): P3.48:
YrE. Pr. :  16.56: 16.90: 19.88:  20.65: 32.80:
Div./sh.: ==== : P1.00: ====:  ====: P3.00:
PER.yrE: 6.55x: ====: 8.32x:  NEG. : 9.43x:
Yield.   : 6.05%: 5.92%: 0.00%. 0.00% 9.14%
======

SHLPH News

217 Shell Select stores, 223 Select Express, 93 Deli2Gos and 479 Lube bays nationwide. +first Shell Café in Phl.

SHLPH - "Shell Pilipinas continues recovery, posts P4.1B net income in 2022"

C02370: Shell Pilipinas press release - 1

Shell Pilipinas Corporation sustains its recovery momentum by generating Php4.1 billion net income in 2022, up by 6% from Php3.9 billion the previous year. This was achieved amidst a challenging year with high inflation, fuel price volatility brought by the Russia-Ukraine war, and Philippine Peso depreciation. The energy company's 2022 gains are attributed to its strong marketing performance as the year's volume delivery increased by 10%, and a sustained high premium fuel penetration. Operational cash flow, excluding movement in working capital, stands at Php1.8 billion, up from 2021's Php1.1 billion. "Powering progress for the Philippines will remain to be our commitment. The environment and our customers' needs are shifting, and Shell Pilipinas is well positioned to be a trusted partner in meeting the current and changing needs of our customers. We continue to be reliable, agile, flexible, and adaptive in this ever-changing landscape," says Lorelie Quiambao-Osial, Shell Pilipinas President and Chief Executive Officer. Mobility business The Mobility business sustains Shell V-Power's position as the most preferred brand in the Philippines, with a new and improved version launched last February 2023, which cleans 100% of performance- robbing deposits and prevents future build-up on vital engine parts.

The Non-Fuels Retail business posted a record profit of Php 2.6 billion, an increase of 24% versus 2021 with continued double-digit growth across segments. There are now 217 Shell Select stores, 223 Select Express, 93 Deli2Gos and 479 Lube bays nationwide. In addition, the business also launched the first Shell Café in the Philippines – a new offer that enhances fuel stations to be mobility destinations where customers can take care of themselves and their vehicles. Shell Go+, the Company's dedicated loyalty program and mobile application launched in 2021, hit its milestone of 2 million members. Shell Go+ has been generating incremental value in both fuel and non-fuel offerings per store visit.

- 2

Increased industrial demand Commercial Fuels increased volume sales by 19%, showing a full bounce back to pre-pandemic levels garnering growth through key customer wins and strengthened reseller capability. Shell's Lubricants business maintains top brand preference for Shell Advance and Shell Helix in key sectors. The business garnered 9% increase in volume while sale of carbon neutral products delivered a 39% increase. This was in conjunction with their offer expansions on coolants, brake fluids and oil filters. Commercial Road Transport recovered well with a strong volume delivery in 2022 attributed to economic improvement, seasonality, and marketing programs. The Aviation business improved with 51% in volume delivery, driven by further border openings and lifting of travel restrictions. Construction and road grew volume by 25% compared to prior year, led by the sale of premium products. ...

Aside from its three import terminals in Batangas, Subic and Cagayan de Oro, construction is ongoing for the company's fourth medium-range capable import terminal in Darong, Davao del Sur, which will supply the growing energy requirements of the southern region. Commitment to decarbonization Shell Pilipinas aims to meet the country's current and future energy needs with a diversified energy mix and cleaner energy, and enjoins consumers and businesses to use energy better, do more with less, and make energy conservation a way of life.

- 3

More than 130 of the company's mobility stations are solar-powered reinforced with energy efficient equipment deployed in many of the mobility sites. Shell Pilipinas also launched the first Shell branded electric vehicle charging facility in Shell Mobility Site in Mamplasan, Laguna which is currently the most powerful DC high performance fast charger in the Philippines....

[drbubb]

"2020 Starter Portfolio": UPDATED, late Mar.2023

Sym. : Company: 2.21.20: -High (in’20): vs.High: x25K: 3.30.23: '22-H: . P.Value : % Chg.
PSEI   : PSEI Index:  7,370 : 9059: (01’18) :  -18.7% : 13.57 : 6,709 : 7,552: P91,041: - 8.96%
GLO.   : Globe Tel. : 1,889 : 2702: (06’15) : -30.3%:    13.2 :  2,060.: 3355: P27,192 : +8.77%
MBT   : MetroBank 60.85 : 90.53 (01’18) : -32.8% : 401.8 :  57.30: 63.50: P23,023: - 7.91%
TEL.   : PLDT Inc.   : 1,025 : 3,422 (09’14) : -70.0%:   24.4 :  1,420:  1,984: P34,648: +38.6%
SHLph P.Shell Pet: 28.95 : 79.35 (02’17) : -63.5%: 863.6 :  16.70 : 22.25: P14,422: - 42.3%
Four Stocks ==========================: P100K: ==== : ====: P99,285 : -0.71%

Thanks mainly to TEL, the 4-stocks portfolio was FLAT, hurt by SHLPH

And showed an outperformance of : P99,285 / 91,041 = +9.05%