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Jollibee (JFC) & other Food companies

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Jollibee (JFC) & other Food companies in PHL

PSEI-etc. / 10yr: fr. 9.30.2010: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d/

from 9.30.19 : YTD: 3.30.20: 10d wTFHI/ 5,932: URC:136.4 (2.3%), JFC:143.8 (2.4%), SMC:100.0 (1.7%)

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from 9.30.2010:

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===

Sym.  : Company Name— : Price : BkVal: %BV: PE-R: Yield : Div. :  yr -L.: yr-H.: %range: (10.09/2020)
FOOD: Alliance Sel. Foods : P0.64: P0.68: 94.1%: -n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  P0.44: P0.73: 69.0% :
GSMI : Ginebra San Miquel: 46.65: 25.36: 184.%: 7.03 : 2.14%: 1.00:  P25.0: P52.0: 80.2% :
JFC   : Jollibee Foods Corp: 143.8: 47.94: 300.%: -n/a : 1.37%: 2.00:  P91.1: P236.: 36.3% :
LFM. : Liberty Flour Mills.   : 35.05: 18.02: 195.%: 35.1 : 2.28%: 0.80:  P27.1: P75.0: 16.8% : Illiquid
PIP.   : Pepsi Cola Products: P1.70: P2.48: 68,5%: -n/a : 2.59%: 0.04:  P1.20: P2.22:  49.0% :
RCI.  : Roxas and Company: P1.19: P4.01: 29.7%: 15.0 : 0.00%: 0.00:  P1.10: P2.29: 7.56% :
RFM. : RFM Corp.                 : P4.90: P3.51: 140.%: 13.4 : 4.33%: 0.21:  P4.00: P5.51: 59.6% :
ROX. : Roxas Holdings.       : P1.82: P5.92: 30.7%:  -n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  P1.28: P2.36: 50.0% :
SFI.   : Swift Foods Inc.        : 0.105: 0.081: 130.%: 2.09 : 0.00%: 0.00:  P0.10: 0.161: 8.20% :
SMC : San Miguel Corp.      : 100.0: 139.8: 71.5%:  -n/a : 1.40%: 1.40:  P72.5: 174.0: 27.1% :
TFHI : Top Frontier Inv Hdg : 121.0: 488.0: 24.8%: - n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  117.0: 230.0: 3.54% : owns SMC shares
URC : Universal Robina Cp. : 136.4: 40.81: 334.%: - n/a : 2.31%: 3.15:  P82.0: 163.4: 66.8% :
VITA : Vitarich Corp.             : P0.74: P0.54: 137.%: 6.53 : 0.00%: 0.00: P0.63: P1.35: 15.2% ::
====
12co: Food companies.       : ==== : BkVal.: %BV :  Ave. : 1.37%: ===== ========= :+36.4% : w/o TFHI
3cos: JFC, SMC, URC ave.  : 126.7: 76.18: 166.%:  Ave.: 1.69%: 2.14:  P81.9: 191.1:+45.2% : 3CoreFoods
PSEI: Philippines Stock Idx : 5,932: 3,969: 149.%: 13.3 : 2.06%: 122.:  4,039: 8,217:+45.3% : Earns P447 :
PSE : Philippine Stock Exch: 156.8: 52.80: 297.%: 22.7 : 5.61%: 8.80: 132.0: 179.5:+52.2% : Earns P6.90 :
====

PAIRS: I am Also Looking at Pairs Trading of JFC against MCD

JFC versus PSEI ... YTD: w/MCD / 10d: w/MCD/  Last: 133 / 5,903 = 2.25%
PDCcuLQ.gif

Valuations
Stock-: Price: MktCap: E.P.Sh: PE-R: BVal.: %-BV: $Debt: EntV.: EV/Eb RR’s: EV/ RR
MCD -: 215.0: 165.6B: $ 6.33 :  35.3: (12.7): -N/A-: $51.9B 214.B: 23.5 38.7k $5.53M
JBFCF: 2.805: 3.05Bn: $0.137: 47.9: $0.80: 214%: - N/A.-: 4.04B: 0.36 1200: $3.36M: 60.7%

JFC / Jollibee ... All: 10yr: from 9.17.10: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ P 130.2 /

oBHniBD.gif

from 9.17.10: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ P 130.2 /

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JFC.ph ... 5yr: from 9.17.15: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

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JFC versus PSEI ... from 2011 : YTD: 10d/ Last: 133 / 5903 = 2.25%

9OzKhWo.gif

JFC versus PSEI ... YTD: 10d/ Last: 133 / 5903 = 2.25%

q8r4Cje.gif

I am thinking about Pairs trading JFC against MCD / McDonalds.  But both look like sells now.

So maybe the way to start is buy purchasing PUTS on MCD... Then maybe buying JFC at lower levels

== DATA BANK ==

Year : JFC.ph: -PSEI: Ratio / -MCD- : Ratio :

1995 : p14.20 : 2,594: 0.55%/ $22,56:  62.9%
2000 : p 9.70 : 1,495: 0.65%/ $34.00:  28.5 %
2005 : p40.50: 2,096: 1.93%/ ,$33.72: 120.1%
2010 : p88.90 : 4,201: 2.12%/ $76.76: 115.8%
2015 : p219.0 : 6,952: 3.15%/ 118.14: 185.4%
2016 : p194.0 : 6,841: 2.84%/ 121.72: 159.4%
2017 : p253.0 : 8,558: 2.96%/ 172.12: 147.0%
2018 : p291.8 : 7,486: 3.80%/ 177.57: 164.3%
2019 : p216.0 : 7,815: 2.76%/ 187.61: 115.1%
====
   Q1  : p106.4 : 5,321: 2.00%/ 165.35: 64.3%
   Q2  : p140.0 : 6,608: 2.12%/ 184.47: 75.9%
 9.18 : p130.2 : 5,909: 2.20%/ 220.27: 59.1%
 9.21 : p131.9 : 5,909: 2.23%/ 216.41: 60.9%
 9.22 : p132.5 : 5,894: 2.24%/ 2????? : 00.0%
YrLow p91.10 : 4,039: 2.26%/ 124.23: 73.3%
YrH..: p236.2 : 8,217: 2.87%/ 226.70: 104.2%
====

PHL CONSUMER Stocks: > https://www.pesobility.com/stock/consumer

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Looking at Pairs Trading of JFC against MCD

On the longest term charts, JFC had a heck of a run, way outperforming MCD.  But recently, it has been weaker.  Seems like they ran out of room to growing in PHL, and then started making bad acquisitions, such as Coffee bean.  Jollibee acquired Smashburger in December 2018 and followed through with a buyout of Coffee Bean in September 2019, both of which however have proven to be more of a financial liability to the otherwise strong homegrown food brand.

JFC.ph vs MCD ... All: 10yr: from 9.17.10: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ P 130.2 / $220.27 = r-59.1%

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from 9.17.10:

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JFC.ph vs MCD ... 5yr: from 9.17.15: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

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JFC versus PSEI ... from 2011 : YTD: 10d/ Last: JFC: xx / Psei: xxxx = Ratio-xx%

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: YTD: 10d/ Last: JFC: 133.0 / Psei: 5,903 = Ratio-xx% ... at 11am on 9.21.20

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Year : JFC.ph: JBFCF -MCD-:  JF/M : JB/M
1995 : p14.20 : $0.54: $22.56:  62.9%: 2.39%
2000 : p 9.70 : $0.19: $34.00:   28.5%: 0.56%
2005 : p40.50: $0.77: $33.72: 120.1%: 2.28%
2010 : p88.90 : $1.95: $76.76: 115.8%: 2.54%
2015 : p219.0 : $4.57: 118.14: 185.4%: 3.87%
2016 : p194.0 : $3.75: 121.72: 159.4%: 3.08%
2017 : p253.0 : $5.03: 172.12: 147.0%: 2.92%
2018 : p291.8 : $5.63: 177.57: 164.3%: 3.17%
2019 : p216.0 : $4.25: 187.61: 115.1%: 2.26%
   Q1  : p106.4 : $2.16: 165.35:   64.3%: 1.31%
   Q2  : p140.0 : $2.85: 184.47:   75.9%: 1.54%
 9.18: p130.2 : $2.70: 220.27:  59.1%: 1.22%
YrLow p 91.10 : $1.95: 124.23:  73.3%: 1.57%
YrH.. : p236.2 : $4.67: 226.70: 104.2%: 2.06%
====

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JOLLIBEE VS MCDONALDS? WHAT STOCK SHOULD YOU BUY?

He likes...

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Jollibee sees Coffee Bean, Smashburger acquisitions paying off in 2021...

Jul 24, 2020

MANILA, Philippines — Despite the pandemic keeping many people indoors, Jollibee Foods Corp. is expecting its loss-making acquisitions to turn to growth next year.
The first to book profits, Tony Tan Caktiong, company chairman and founder, said would be Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. The American coffee chain should go back in the black as early as the first quarter of next year.
“We expect Coffee Bean’s performance to improve by the fourth quarter of this year and become profitable by next year 2021,” Tony Tan Caktiong, company chairman and founder, said during Jollibee’s annual stockholders meeting held via Zoom.

“We believe the Coffee Bean brand is one which can resonate and be loved by consumers globally beginning in Asia to the US,” he added.
Smashburger, another US-based fast-food chain owned by Jollibee, is also targeted to swing to profits next year, driven mainly by closure of some of its 350 stores deemed to have been underperforming way before the pandemic struck.

. . . Jollibee paid a total of $445 million for Smashburger (2018), $110 million of which was settled in 2018. Coffee Bean, on the other hand, was gobbled up by Jollibee with a $350-million price tag in 2019. Since then however, the Jollibee group’s profits slowly dwindled, dropping 14.4% year-on-year in 2019, before turning red in the first quarter of 2020 with the pandemic’s impact acting as the final nail.

Sought for comment, Nicky Franco, vice-president for research at Abacus Securities Corp., said a full-year loss for the Jollibee group this year is all but certain, and it is not just because of the coronavirus outbreak’s tempering impact on customers.

“There’s a term I saw recently – ‘kitchen sinking’ which means management will probably recognize all the losses and clean up everything this year so that 2021 and beyond will look much better,” Franco said in an online exchange. 

“Market consensus is already for a loss this year so it shouldn't be surprising,” he added.

Apart from Smashburger, Franco said cost-cutting measures must also be enforced at Coffee Bean to trigger growth, a matter already started with Caktiong saying work of the coffee chain’s back-end office had been transferred to Jollibee’s shared services in the Philippines.

/ 2 /

“[It will] bring JFC closer to its vision to be one of the top 5 restaurant companies in the world in terms of market capitalization,” the company remarked.

CBTL ended August 31 with 1,180 outlets, 336 of which are company-owned while 844 are franchised. Of these, 288 are in the US, 439 in Southeast Asia (Philippines 150, Indonesia 88, Malaysia 100, Singapore 65), 301 in East Asia (South Korea 290), 152 in the Middle East and other parts of Asia (Kuwait 36, Qatar 28, Saudi Arabia 16, Egypt 13, India 25).

In 2018, CBTL booked a net loss of $21.38 million. Jollibee aims to turn its fortunes around in 12 to 18 months.

> https://www.asianjournal.com/business/business-news/jollibee-completes-coffee-bean-acquisition/

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MCD/ JFC Pairs: "Got started last night...  with some near perfect execution"... - (picked up from DrBubb's Viber chat)

The idea of trading MCD/ McDonalds against JFC/ Jollibee came to me last week, and when I looked into it, I found there is presently a great set-up, so I jumped in to my first trade last night, starting with the Short side in MCD puts

MCD / McDonalds Corp*... 10d : JFC-10d : MCD: $214.90, JFC: P138.10, 64.3% MCD

7vJsmEy.gif

MCD/ JFC PAIRS: Got started last night...  
With some near perfect execution...
BOT Oct.220 Puts Paid average of $5.90...
As MCD rallied to $219.68, near my ideal target
of $220 (Top of Gap)
Then MCD slid with market, closing at $214.97.
The MCD puts closed at 8.30-8.60= 8.45 Mid.
(Puts are already up 43%, while I was sleeping)
Nicely in profit. Will aim sell half at $12 if poss.
And keep the other half as a “free” hedge,
$220 x1cts = $22,000 x 48.6= Php 1.07m

MCD: P1.07M /138 = 7,750 JFC shares to buy.

ewiC19C.png

MCD ... YTD : $215.  Next big support level is $200, with some minor support at $210

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*McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer various food products and beverages, as well as breakfast menu. As of December 31, 2019, the company operated 38,695 restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois. : MktCap: $215 x 744M= $160 Bn / 38,695 RR;s = $4.13 Million per RR

JFC’s MktCap: P138 , JBFCF: $2.805 x1.11 B= $3.11 Bn /1,200 RR= $2.59M per RR

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Jollibee has a US quote (JBFCF)

JBFCF vs MCD, JFC.ph... fr. 9.30.2010: 3.1.2013: 5yrW: 2yr: 1yr: YTD: 10d/ $2.805 / $215= 1.30%

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JBFCF ... 5yr

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JBFCF -to MCD ... ratio: 1.31%... Low was near 1.2% x php50= 60%

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Valuations
Stock-: Price: MkCap: E.P.Sh.: PE-R: BVal: %-BV: $Debt: EntV.: EV/Eb RR’s: EV/ RR
MCD -: 215.0: 165.6B: $ 6.33: 35.3: (12.7): -N/A-: $51.9B 214.B: 23.5 38.7k $5,53M
JBFCF: 2.805: 3.05Bn: $0.137: 47.9: $0.80: 214%: N/A.B: 4.04B: 0.36 1200: $3.36M

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Store closures, digital pivot costs push Jollibee deeper in the red

Prinz Magtulis (Philstar.com) - August 5, 2020 - 10:05am ... As a result of the push for more food deliveries, Jollibee said it is shutting down 255 branches and ...
 
/ 2 /

Philippine fast food giant Jollibee loses US$240 million and ...

 
Aug 6, 2020 - Crunching Jollibee's numbers. ... The fast food giant will also be opening 338 more stores in 2020 and aims to make Smashburger and The ...

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  • 08:02 McDonald’s raises quarterly dividend to $1.29 a share from $1.25 MarketWatch
  • 08:01 McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales up 4.6%; FactSet consensus up 2.5% MarketWatch
  • 08:01 McDonald’s Q3 same-store sales down 2.2%; FactSet consensus down 5.0% MarketWatch

McDonald’s stock jumps after upbeat sales report, raised dividend MarketWatch

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PSEI-etc. / 10yr: fr. 9.30.2010: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d/

from 9.30.19 : YTD: 3.30.20: 10d/ 5,932: URC:136.4 (2.3%), JFC:143.8 (2.4%), SMC:100.0 (1.7%)

KgdLhZs.gif

from 9.30.2010:

VQTQP1G.gif

===

Sym.  : Company Name— : Price : BkVal: %BV: PE-R: Yield : Div. :  yr -L.: yr-H.: %range: (10.09/2020)
FOOD: Alliance Sel. Foods : P0.64: P0.68: 94.1%: -n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  P0.44: P0.73: 69.0% :
GSMI : Ginebra San Miquel: 46.65: 25.36: 184.%: 7.03 : 2.14%: 1.00:  P25.0: P52.0: 80.2% :
JFC   : Jollibee Foods Corp: 143.8: 47.94: 300.%: -n/a : 1.37%: 2.00:  P91.1: P236.: 36.3% :
LFM. : Liberty Flour Mills.   : 35.05: 18.02: 195.%: 35.1 : 2.28%: 0.80:  P27.1: P75.0: 16.8% : Illiquid
PIP.   : Pepsi Cola Products: P1.70: P2.48: 68,5%: -n/a : 2.59%: 0.04:  P1.20: P2.22:  49.0% :
RCI.  : Roxas and Company: P1.19: P4.01: 29.7%: 15.0 : 0.00%: 0.00:  P1.10: P2.29: 7.56% :
RFM. : RFM Corp.                 : P4.90: P3.51: 140.%: 13.4 : 4.33%: 0.21:  P4.00: P5.51: 59.6% :
ROX. : Roxas Holdings.       : P1.82: P5.92: 30.7%:  -n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  P1.28: P2.36: 50.0% :
SFI.   : Swift Foods Inc.        : 0.105: 0.081: 130.%: 2.09 : 0.00%: 0.00:  P0.10: 0.161: 8.20% :
SMC : San Miguel Corp.      : 100.0: 139.8: 71.5%:  -n/a : 1.40%: 1.40:  P72.5: 174.0: 27.1% :
TFHI : Top Frontier Inv Hdg : 121.0: 488.0: 24.8%: - n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  117.0: 230.0: 3.54% : owns SMC shares
URC : Universal Robina Cp. : 136.4: 40.81: 334.%: -n/a : 2.31%: 3.15:  P82.0: 163.4: 66.8% :
VITA : Vitarich Corp.             : P0.74: P0.54: 137.%: 6.53 : 0.00%: 0.00: P0.63: P1.35: 15.2% ::
====
12co: Food companies.       : ==== : BkVal.: %BV: Ave. : 1.37%: ===== ========= :+36.4% : w/o TFHI
3cos: JFC, SMC, URC ave.  : 126.7: 76.18: 166.%: Ave.: 1.69%: 2.14:  P81.9: 191.1:+45.2% : 3CoreFoods
PSEI: Philippines Stock Idx : 5,932: 3,969: 149.%: 13.3 : 2.06%: 122.:  4,039: 8,217:+45.3% : Earns P447 :
PSE : Philippine Stock Exch: 156.8: 52.80: 297.%: 22.7 : 5.61%: 8.80: 132.0: 179.5:+52.2% : Earns P6.90 :
====

Edited by drbubb

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Top Frontier Investment Holdings- is a Big One, and an odd one...

Sym.  : Company Name—  : Price : PE-R: Yield : Div. :  yr -L.: yr-H.: %range: (10.09/2020)
SMC : San Miguel Corp.      : 100.0:  -n/a : 1.40%: 1.40:  P72.5: 174.0: 27.1% :
TFHI : Top Frontier Inv Hdg : 121.0: -n/a : 0.00%: 0.00:  117.0: 230.0: 3.54% : owns SMC shares

TFHI owns 66% of San Miguel Corp. + 100% of a Mining entity, Clariden Holdings.

TFHI vs. SMC ... update

xx

With PSEI: YTD: from Jan'19: Jan'16: / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

SOwOq9p.gif

TFHI (332.9 M shs.) owns 1,573M shs of SMC.: Each TFHI share is backed by 4.72 SMC shares

SMC has 2378.4m shares OS, & Php 139.8 BkV : 1,573M shs is 66.1%

TFHI / Top Frontier ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

xx

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  /100.2 = Ratio:129.1%

 

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The CHEAPEST Food stock, possibly... is RCI, Roxas & Co., (which might also be a property stock)

Cheap: by % Book Value,  and cheap by the size of its rally within the range

RCI could bust thru resistance at the 76d MA tomorrow

RCI ... Ytd: 3mo: 10d / Last: 1.22
eaKYXKb.gif

Ideally, I would like to see RCI trade over 10M shares this week in a single day, and burst through, trading above P 1.24.  Let's see if we get that.

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FOOD PRICES Set to Rise now?... Started already probably

Sugar & DBA, vs Coffee & Cocoa ... 2018: 2019: 2020: YTD / DBA: x, Sugar: x, Coffee: x, Cocoa: x vs. SLV: xx

DZLrJHe.gif

Video

Here's Why Food Prices Will Double then Triple, Are You Ready?

==

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Jollibee has broken out of its downwards trend...  and is playing catch-up with MCD

"the alligator is pushing its tongue towards the roof of the mouth"

JFC vs-MCD ... update :

vznDH4e.gif

 

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