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PRECIOUS Decade: Metals, Stocks & the Long View

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Many GOOD YEARS still ahead for Commodity stocks?

Coming: A DECADE of Rising Commodities, and weak Stocks?

=== Pre-NY Opening indicators for Gold, Silver & Gold shares

FRES.L, TLT, & GBS/Gold Bullion Securities (UK version of GLD) ... 10d / Kitco: AU: AG: mine news: StkW:

POMSvgO.gif

Update:  "The Precious Decade" chart

> HUNTER's Twitter > https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian?lang=en

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $23.32 , GLD:157.49, SPY:381.72, XLE:53.09 @3.8.2021

From 2020’s March Low, to the year's High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /GLD: SLV: +etc: 10d: UK 5d: AGQe:
SLV Mar.L: $10.86> Aug.H: $27.39: Silver = +152% / Target: Slv: $30,00, silver: $35-40
GLD L: 136.12, $1,451 > H: 194.45, 2,089 = +44.0% / Target: $240?, $2,500?
SPY L: 216.42, $2,192 > H: 394.17, 3,950 = +80.2% / Target; 4,600
XLE Mar.Low: $ 22.88 > H: $53.75, 3.9.21= +135% > Yr.H: Mar.9th, Target: $55

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Watch Bonds ! - TLT since 2010: $137.83 at 3.08.2021

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GLD from 2010: Last: $157.49 at 3.08.2021

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===

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Gold stock charts (GDX) as a TIMING device... explained here

GDX, Gold stocks vs. TLT ... since 2010w: 7/2013: 2015w: 1/2016: 1/2018: 1/2020: 10d/ at 2.17.21

GDX: $33.22 / TLT: 145.79, Ratio: 23.6%, GLD: 166.33 (ratio to tlt: 116.0%), SPY: $392.39

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2015w:

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Chart from 4:13 minutes into this presentation

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VIDEO: Steven Van Metre: GDX Weakness Signaling Market Crash

Ratio: GDX: xx / TLT: xx, Ratio: xx

xx

Ratio: GLD: xx / TLT: xx, Ratio: xx, SPY: yy

xx

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Here's a new podcast interview I did with Angelo Robles of the Family Office Association.
It is an hour long so a bit lengthy but hopefully you find it worth your while. I hope you enjoy it.
2021 Market Outlook: Equity Markets, Interest Rates, Commodities,...
Featuring: David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist, Contrarian Macro Advisors#AngeloRobles #FamilyOffice #FamilyOfficeAssociation #SingleFamilyOffice

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SUPPLY-driven Surge for Silver coming?               

 Silver could be the poster child for the new commodity bull supercycle - Wells Fargo                     /                                                               

John LaForge, head of real asset strategy for Wells Fargo, said that silver's long-term fundamentals remain the most important story for the precious metal. He added that the market is still in great shape as the failed short squeeze didn't last long enough to damage investor demand.

His comments come as silver prices manage to hold critical support above $27 an ounce. March silver futures last traded at $27.365 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.
"The hype in silver only lasted a couple of days, and the market is big enough that there is no lasting damage in the market," he said. "There wasn't enough time for a lot of investors to get hurt."
LaForge added that with the market starting to normalize, he hopes that investors stop being distracted by social media and focus on silver's fundamental story, which sees shrinking supply and growing demand.

LaForge added that this is the trend that appears at the start of a new super bull cycle.
"You have about a 10-year period where it really pays off just to be in this space, you leave them alone, you just own them," he said.
LaForge said that silver could be the poster child for the new bull cycle as mine supply has fallen consistently for the last five years.
"We're at a point where we really aren't opening up any more mines," he said. "It is going to take meaningfully higher prices to open up new mines." 

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-16/Silver-could-be-the-poster-child-for-the-new-commodity-bull-supercycle-Wells-Fargo.html

/ 2 /

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BlackRock sells more than $470 million worth of gold as it focuses on silver

The world's biggest asset manager BlackRock is getting out of gold and buying into silver as it sold 2.7 million of its SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and bought 1.18 million shares of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In terms of the dollar value, BlackRock sold $471 million worth of GLD, the largest gold-backed ETF on the market, and bought $29 million worth of SLV, the largest silver ETF.

As of December 31, 2020, Blackrock owned just 4.68 million of GLD shares worth $835 million compared to the previous holding of 7.37 million worth $1.3 billion. Blackrock's SLV ownership is now at 1.2 million, with a total value of $29.6 million.

However, keep in mind that the $29 million investment into silver is still relatively moderate compared to BlackRock's gold holdings.

The above data come from BlackRock's mandatory Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) 13F filing. All institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management are required to disclose their equity holdings every quarter.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-16/BlackRock-sells-off-gold-and-focuses-on-silver.html

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TLT getting very Oversold, sliding ahead of GLD / Gold

TLT -etc... 10d/ $138.54, GLD: x, Gap: $10, Ratio: xx

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TLT ... 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 10d / LOW: 136.61 vs Expected support near $135

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Even before the latest drop, some pundits were saying Bonds were too cheap, and overdue for a rally

"GOLD investors are Wrong to be impatient... Bonds prices have been adjusting" (& that adjustment is almost done.)

Yields reach ‘tipping point'; gold, stocks ready for 'rebellion' says Alain Corbani

The reasons he are bullish on Gold come out later, at the XX minute market

He may be right soon... But not just yet:

Bond Yields Surge lead to a significant sell-off in financials and precious metals

U.S. data out this morning did not help out the safe-haven metals. The weekly jobless claims report showed a sharp drop in claims in the latest reporting week, dropping by 111,000 to 730,000. While these number are nowhere near the levels seen pre-pandemic, they do suggest the U.S. jobs market is stabilizing after winter-time layoffs. U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter was reported at up 4.1%, year-on-year and durable goods orders rose 3.4% in January—also suggesting a rebounding U.S. economy.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower at midday today, also pressured by rising bond yields. The discussion in the marketplace at present centers on global inflation prospects, with most traders reckoning inflation is up-ticking

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Are we in a CAPITULATION STAGE FOR GOLD?  Maybe. Watch Bonds

GLD / Gold ... update

TLT vs GLD ... from 2015: 2018: 2020: 10d/ $139.01, GLD: $161.52, Gap: $22.50, Ratio: 116.2% Mar.11th

 @3 men in a boat

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Ratio: 116.2%=. $139.01, GLD: $161.52, Gap: $22.50,   Mar.11th

bc6UKWl.png

 

Gold price nosedives on rising yields; next key levels to watch – Peter Hug
 

===

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TLT / Bonds Bottoming? (gold to rally soon?)

Charts: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $138.90 ?

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Weak bonds (rising rates), may have stretched Stocks to the breaking point?...

Chart. update: SPY: $376.70, IWM: xx, Nasdaq: xx TLT: xx (n/t: x.)

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I think Hunter might have it right. and I see a possible bounce level on my charts (about $135) at the top

David Hunter: Stock Market Is NOT Crashing Yet.. Major Melt-Up Underway: Gold & Silver to Explode

Hunter's Tweets: David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian·

I think T-bonds are in the process of a successful retest. Could see a 15 point rally in TLT over the next couple of months. Remember when the 10yr was at .60 six months ago, I forecast a rate rise to 1.40-1.50% when no one else was even contemplating it. It pays to be contrary.
I continue to expect a significant rally in T-bonds in coming weeks. That in turn should prove supportive for gold & silver. I remain bullish of both. My targets remain unchanged, gold $2500 & silver $45-$50.Sentiment has gotten quite negative,particularly on gold. That's bullish.
Commodities have had quite a run in recent months & look like they may correct for a bit here.Everything from oil to copper to the grains look like they may need a bit of a breather before heading higher.If so,this would fit with my call for a bond rally before rates move higher.

===

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GOLD: closed well above the early lows - is it fully washed out now... Ready to rise?  /

"Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February from the U.S. Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls number up 379,000 compared to forecasts for up 210,000 in February. The unemployment rate was 6.2%. The better-than-expected jobs report is putting moderate downside price pressure on gold and silver futures this morning.... The precious metal has become oversold and generally despised recently, as sentiment has reached levels of previous bottoms. I also expect the latest Gold Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, issued later today, will show spec long liquidation from last week down to levels not seen since before the breakout of a 6-year base below $1400."

( Gold chart )

Gold got pushed down on the jobs figures and slide after the opening (GLD’s Low was 158.55, down 0.31%, Gold hit $1691),

but Gold recovered later to over $1700. GDX/ Gold stocks were actually UP 1.3% on the day...

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Sym.: Close : + chg. , +% Chg.,  High. :  Low  :
GLD : $159.14 +$0.10, +0.06%, 159.82, 158.55
GDX : $31.78  + $0.41, +1.31%,  $31.88, $30.90
GDXJ: $45.61 + $0.54, +1.20%, $45.69, $44.00   
Nugt : $52.45 + $1.42, +2.78%, $52.71, $49.60
TLT. : $138.91 + $0.27, +0.19%, 139.34, 137.99
====
When we look back. we may find that the LOW for Gold stocks was Wed's opening.
I bought NUGT $40 calls at around $14.50 = breakeven of $54.50.
Take a look at the NUGT High of the Year ($171) That is something to dream about!
====

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RISK ON again?  BONDS (tlt) may have bottomed, & we are set for Hunter's "melt-up"

Chart. update: SPY: $383.63 +$6.93, +1.84%

IWM: xx, Nasdaq: xx TLT: xx (n/t: x.)

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Ratio: SPY-to-TLT: $383.60 / $140 = r 3.50

xx

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OIL STOCK Rally near its end?

XLE / Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF - Last: $53.05

- Early this year when XLE was $40, I put out a target of $55. It's currently $53 so in my view much of the oil rally is over. XLE can certainly rise above $55 but not by a lot. Oil is one laggard that has caught up.

MG4TL73.gif

===

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Update:  "The Precious Decade" chart

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $23.32 , GLD:157.49, SPY:381.72, XLE:53.09 @3.8.2021

From 2020’s March Low, to the year's High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /GLD: SLV: +etc: 10d: UK 5d: AGQe:
SLV Mar.L: $10.86> Aug.H: $27.39: Silver = +152% / Target: Slv: $30,00, silver: $35-40
GLD L: 136.12, $1,451 > H: 194.45, 2,089 = +44.0% / Target: $200, $2,000
SPY L: 216.42, $2,192 > H: 394.17, 3,950 = +80.2% / Target; 4,600
XLE Mar.Low: $ 22.88 > H: $53.75, 3.9.21= +135% > Yr.H: Mar.9th, Target: $55

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Hunter interview:  39th year of a Bull market in Stocks, coming to end, with melt-up (to latest target Spx-4600 ) to End it.

PM's have their own cycle, maybe $2300 for Gold, and $40-50 for Silver within this half year > then still bullish thru 2020's Decade

DAVID HUNTER: CONTRARIAN GLOBAL FINANCIAL PREDICTION - THE CRASH IS IN SIGHT!

==

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SOME BULL FACTORS are Easy to Forget

+ Physical Gold demand from China & India is strong and rising in 2021
+ Gold equities have corrected to a point where mergers and takeovers are becoming inevitable.
( cash flow is still strong inside many companies. )
( shareholders with push management teams to realize inherent values)

+ Gold & Gold shares have bearish sentiment, and that can swing back to bullish quickly
+ Gold shares may LEAD Gold in the next swing upwards

A really excellent interview, touching these points: was above

Is gold about to rebound? Pierre Lassonde on Bitcoin ‘mania’ and silver squeeze impact

“Right now, there is a bit of a discrepancy and it started about last week where in fact the gold equities are up when the gold bullion is down, so I’m kind of wondering whether or not we’re right at this particular point in the cycle where the equities are telling the bullion market that maybe there’s a turn coming,” Lassonde said.

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Rising GOLD & Gold shares - will they lead TLT higher ?

TLT- etc ... update /

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Gold stocks may need help from Lower rates to continue is recent rally

Cycles in the GDXJ to TLT ratio

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Hunter's comment on Oil stocks: "correcting... to near $45"

I don't think the oil correction is over yet & we are likely to see lower prices ahead. WTI could get as low as $50 before heading higher again. Oil stocks also heading lower. XLE could fall to near $45 before reversing upward again.

XLE / Oil Stocks vs. GDXJ, TLT ... update / Last: $48.54 ... XLE alone:

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Ratio:

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(THIS came out a few hours after I made the post above):

Energy Summary for March 23, 2021
[2021-03-23 20:24]
Oil prices plunge on renewed European lockdowns. The U.S. shale industry is enjoying its cheapest debt environment in years, spurring a wave of refinancings.

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Bonds/TLT, and Gold & Gold stocks ... are Still under pressure in 2021

TLT- etc ... update / from Dec.2020 :

Pwps0qx.gif

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STAMPEDE IN... then maybe a stampede out (starting in a few weeks maybe?)

David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian
Melt-up is underway, led by tech, esp semis & FAANG, industrials & commodities. Copper producers poised for higher after brief pullback. Steel stocks also poised for higher. Homebuilders still in gear & going higher. Big move in precious metals & miners just getting started.  ...  For those that don't see it yet, the counter-trend dollar rally is over & DXY is now headed for 85. The commodity currencies CAD & AUD are poised for big rallies. CADUSD to .90 & AUDUSD to .85. Euro, GBP & Yen also poised for nice rallies.

The biggest ‘inflation scare’ in 40 years is coming — what stock-market investors need to know

/ 2 /

Here’s where to invest your money before traders start ‘rotating, if not stampeding’ out of stocks, according to one Warren Buffett disciple MarketWatch

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Stock Melt-up Underway? How it ends...

SPY-etc ... update: 10d/ Last: SPY: 417.26 / TMV: $74.51 (=r.xxx) , TLT: 139.26, IWM: xx, XLF: xx

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TMV/ Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ... update: $74.51
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Ratio: SPY-to-TMV: 5.60x , up 22% from 4.59x LOW... Hunter's 460 Target / 74.51= 6.17x, is 16% below 7.38x Peak

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==

ENDING? "The Bond market will take the punchbowl away from the Fed"

"there will be a HUGE collapse, but it won't come until the Fed loses control of the bond market"

Bond Market Troubles Will End The Fed's Printing THIS YEAR Warns Money Manager | Bill Fleckenstein

==

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Commodities "poised"... while Miners are "hated"

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After consolidating for 7 weeks, copper is poised for a sharp move higher.Could get to $4.80-$5.00. The same is true of commodities in general. After a month of consolidation, commodities are poised for another sharp move higher. All part of the market's healthy rotation.
==
xx
Perspective is important in investing but often lacking among investors.The perception is that the miners behave terribly.Sentiment is very negative.Even after an 8 mo consolidation GDX is still 34 up from 16 a yr ago & SIL is 42 up from 16.Big upside ahead.GDX to 60 & SIL to 75.

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